Jump to content

Mythic Pachinko [Main Server] - Discussion Thread


Recommended Posts

  • Moderator

So, the Mythic Pachinko went live on the main server today. B|

There wasn't a proper discussion thread about it as a main feature yet, so here goes. I'd like this topic to be a place to share opinions, but also experiences and facts we can establish overtime about this new feature in the game. Also, feel free to take note of and comment on each particular rotation. Okay, I'll start.

The feature itself is a great addition to the game; it's an additional opportunity to help complete one's collection, which is always welcome. The free spin each rotation is a nice touch; a free legendary booster or book twice a week is a good freebie, and it might also give a free girl approximately once in a blue moon, which will be awesome if/when it happens. Of course, it's insanely expensive if you use it to buy 3 girls from scratch, but that's not what it's there for. The bigger your collection, the more unfinished girls you have, the more likely it is that you'll eventually get to complete a girl or two at a reasonable price with this. About pricing, we had contradictory announcements and the latest screenshot posted was a bit scary, but in the end it was released with the least expensive version, thankfully.

Another thing I notice here is that the avatar preview disappeared, but avatars are still mentioned in the text. So, can we still get avatars from this or not? I'd like to know!

Last but not least, as I heard other players say elsewhere, it isn't convenient to have the current selection of girls shown only by their avatar. A direct link to each girl's page in your harem when you click on their avatar would probably be ideal, but failing that, adding basic info about the girl under each avatar (name, class, number of stars) would come a long way! I had to do some detective work on the wiki to identify each girl from the first rotation, and it's unnecessarily tedious.

Other than the question and issue mentioned above, I'm just glad this was added to the game. I'm also looking forward to the announced pachinko orbs, and I hope they'll work with this.

What do you guys think?

Original announcement vs latest patch notes vs what was actually released:

1788433030_Preview-MythicPachinko01.png.552eadda62db13187668669a58283709.png33824707_Preview-MythicPachinko02.PNG.c314d9a0bebf6a2e67aa8f2998daf4fa.PNG2078384714_Preview-MythicPachinko03(Released).PNG.f0765290d518c04abffc78f893450e99.PNG

Edited by DvDivXXX
too many images
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Rotation #0181 (2020/09/21 - 13:00 CET):  Teacher Deitra, Virginia and Alana. Got a... waiiiiit for iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit.... GIRL! 🤗 Guess I just needed to complain a bit

One MPx1 orb, and... Number Nine! ^^ (all but one this very month). Funny thing is she was the only one I didn't have in this rota, and I was considering which MPx3 and x6 orbs to spend on

I never thought it would happen but it finally did. My first girl from a mythic pachinko orb. 

Posted Images

39 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

The free spin each rotation is a nice touch; a free legendary booster or book twice a week is a good freebie, and it might also give a free girl

Just for reference, rotation is every 48 hours, so 3.5 spins per week, rather than 2.

Link to post
Share on other sites

got a ginseng for first free spin.

Does anyone know whether the shard drop is completely random or will favor the one girl you have the most shards on at the time of the spin? (a bit like the mechanic for boss girls)

If it's completely random, I'm not planning to play it unless I have only one girl with about 10-20 shards to go in the rotation, for me it's way too expensive otherwise.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Moderator
1 hour ago, GeorgeMTO said:

Just for reference, rotation is every 48 hours, so 3.5 spins per week, rather than 2.

You're right, thanks for that. I counted 3 days, I don't know why. The feature was launched on Thursday at 13:00 CET and the first selection will rotate out on Saturday at the same time, so indeed that's 2 days. Even better, then! ^^

48 minutes ago, Zamio said:

Does anyone know whether the shard drop is completely random or will favor the one girl you have the most shards on at the time of the spin?

It's a very very small sample size and might be a pure coincidence, but one of the mods on the French section posted test results that seemed to show an A->B->C->A etc. pattern for the drop sequence (it was done on the test server, though, it might not hold true on the main server). If it really works this way, then at least it's predictable. It could be a plus in some cases (if you have 75% of Girl A specifically, for instance), but of course it would be one more reason to avoid spending when you're at 0 for all 3 girls.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

You're right, thanks for that. I counted 3 days, I don't know why. The feature was launched on Thursday at 13:00 CET and the first selection will rotate out on Saturday at the same time, so indeed that's 2 days. Even better, then! ^^

It's a very very small sample size and might be a pure coincidence, but one of the mods on the French section posted test results that seemed to show an A->B->C->A etc. pattern for the drop sequence (it was done on the test server, though, it might not hold true on the main server). If it really works this way, then at least it's predictable. It could be a plus in some cases (if you have 75% of Girl A specifically, for instance), but of course it would be one more reason to avoid spending when you're at 0 for all 3 girls.

thanks.

Girl A, B, C? Would that be the order in which they are shown in the the Pachinko icon here?

1656264322_ScreenShot2019-11-22at12_58_55PM.png.06f89acdf06b42c0ce7aacfdd371e866.png

to make things worse, the icon at top shows them in a different order 😂

1055025254_ScreenShot2019-11-22at12_58_47PM.png.ea5b4c2d0cc9948e3b101fa62f7f3861.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Moderator
32 minutes ago, Zamio said:

Girl A, B, C?

I'm not sure. I could ask, but it's more likely something we'll figure out after more people have made more tests and posted here (hopefully).

On another note, if anyone gets an avatar or information that confirms if avatars are currently in the pool or not, it would be much appreciated (I kinda hope they're included, but I'd like to know either way). Thanks in advance!

Link to post
Share on other sites

I posted this in another thread but it better belongs here. I got a girl with the free spin of Mythic Pachinko, totally unexpected but welcomed.

I expect this can give you hopes that the free spin is a nice adition, and will give you some free girls during the year.

image.png.24f27623914345c1bd48045a0f3e5fc8.png

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

So I got Zeina, but just by looking at the prices and this whole pachinko in general I would guess the chance to get a girl is 1%. You have roughly 182 chances within a year. That means you have about 84% chance to get a free girl during that time. Of course you can get more if lucky.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Moderator

Thanks to all who shared so far. I'm looking forward to more info.

5 hours ago, Mihai said:

I would guess the chance to get a girl is 1%

5 hours ago, Mihai said:

That means you have about 84% chance to get a free girl during that time.

I read that those who made a bunch of spins on the test server estimated the odds at around 2% for the 1 spin option. I'm not an expert on statistics, but I have a decent grasp of probabilities, and I try to avoid common biases. To me, it means that on you have a 98% chance to not get a girl with each free spin. Your yearly average odds seem optimistic to me; how did you come to this result?

My understanding is that on average there should be a drop every 50 spins, but that in practice this would only become apparent over a huge sample size (not anywhere near the number of free spins a given player will get in a year). What I expect to see is more similar to how the x100 drop works: a lucky few will get several a year, while many will get none.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

Thanks to all who shared so far. I'm looking forward to more info.

I read that those who made a bunch of spins on the test server estimated the odds at around 2% for the 1 spin option. I'm not an expert on statistics, but I have a decent grasp of probabilities, and I try to avoid common biases. To me, it means that on you have a 98% chance to not get a girl with each free spin. Your yearly average odds seem optimistic to me; how did you come to this result?

The poster you were responding to assumed 182 spins with a 1% hit rate = 99% miss rate. 0.99^182 = 0.1605 probability for 182 misses = 0.8395 probability for at least one hit.

At 2% the likelihood to get at least one girl in 182 spins would be 97.5%.

Incidentally, these were my test runs on the test server last week:

unknown.png

Some very wild swings of luck there from beginning to end. The real rate may well be significantly different from 2%, I somehow don't feel those 15 runs were enough to flush out the RNG effects sufficiently.

Edited by _shal_
  • Thanks 4
  • Surprised :O 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Moderator
1 hour ago, _shal_ said:

At 2% the likelihood to get at least one girl in 182 spins would be 97.5%.

Thanks for your contribution, this helps a lot! Much appreciated.

@FinderKeeper thanks for the link, I'll toy around with it. 😃

1 hour ago, Noacc said:

I would advise you

Thanks for showing up in this thread! While you're here, could you please enlighten us about avatars? The preview icon is no longer present, but the text description still mentions them as possible drops. I'd like to know if the text is simply outdated or if they're still in the pool, but their previews were removed for another reason (perhaps a tech issue?). Thanks in advance for your help.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If you want to know the distribution of probabilities you can use this binomial graph calculator.

If we take p = 0.02 (2%) and n (number of tries) = 182 we have that the probability of getting 0 girls with Mythic pachinko free spins during a year would be 0.0253 (2.53%). The usual result would be between 1 and 6 girls.

image.png.3dffc31b39b0ac4dfbf32af588e15bdd.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

I just got my first legendary booster since I started playing the game (legendary cordyceps).

Being a non koban spender I can only say mine about the free spins. Given for now the 2% girl drop probability as near to the truth, Mythic Pachinko is useful only to gather a few items. Let's take as an example a year period: this means 182 items, or maybe 180 or 181 items and 1 or 2 girls. At his rate, given all due proportions, i probably will need less time to gather enough kobans to play enough x10 spins at Epic pachinko to obtain all non-event girls. Given that in the arc of a year, 180 items or boosters, even if legendary, on the average have only a limited, time-shortening impact on the game, overall the free spin can be valued between the "have it or not makes no difference" and the "absolutely worthless".

  • Thinking 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Observer_X said:

I just got my first legendary booster since I started playing the game (legendary cordyceps).

Being a non koban spender I can only say mine about the free spins. Given for now the 2% girl drop probability as near to the truth, Mythic Pachinko is useful only to gather a few items. Let's take as an example a year period: this means 182 items, or maybe 180 or 181 items and 1 or 2 girls. At his rate, given all due proportions, i probably will need less time to gather enough kobans to play enough x10 spins at Epic pachinko to obtain all non-event girls. Given that in the arc of a year, 180 items or boosters, even if legendary, on the average have only a limited, time-shortening impact on the game, overall the free spin can be valued between the "have it or not makes no difference" and the "absolutely worthless".

But we also all know not to take you all that serious 😂 You won't spin that epic pachinko, because of your own rule, so any argument using something going against your own rule is also immediately ready for the trash can. Especially you should be happy with about two new girls a year on average that you can actually get now. That is more than no girls. Of course you can always go for certain and also not use the free spin. That way you know for certain what you get. Free spin = free spin. Everything you get from it is worth something in the game. Even though for you the koban reward in the league is worthless, you still get other things for it as well. Save that useless junk and at some point you might even get a bigger piece of the pie in the league. By the way, I have a great way for you to use all those kobans without using them... just refresh your booster shop countless times. That way you can actually play without kobans, like you want to.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Moderator
1 hour ago, Observer_X said:

overall the free spin can be valued between the "have it or not makes no difference" and the "absolutely worthless".

I... really don't follow your logic, here. I would expect you to dislike or not even consider the Mythic Pachinko in general, given your self-imposed no-koban policy, but the free spin?

It's free, so any value at all you get from it is a bonus. And in this case what you get even in the (almost) worst case is actually quite valuable! You seem to greatly underestimate just how scarce legendary boosters are. I don't think you can get them from arena (at least I never did), and even in the shop, they show up very rarely (I think I saw two in my market, ever, and they're super expensive too). So a good chance of getting such an item every other day for free is very far from worthless (because they're very impactful when you equip them, at least in an adequate setup). The other thing you can typically get is a legendary book, which costs a ton in Ymens in the market (when you even get the option to buy one), and give a lot of greatly needed XP to one of your girls. Getting a few of these for free on a regular basis is also very good. And on top of that, it's not unlikely that you'll get a free girl or two along the way... What's not to like?

I mean, the daily free spin of the Great Pachinko actually has a pretty low value on average, but it's still worth using, because why not, right? It's free. This is the same thing, but with much more value.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I had 2 free spins today with one booster and one book.

Then i decided to play 1game six times and got Zeina. It was worth it but I dont think Ill play it again, only if there is only one girl in I really really want this girl.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minuti fa, DvDivXXX ha scritto:

[...] and even in the shop, they show up very rarely (I think I saw two in my market, ever, and they're super expensive too). [...] The other thing you can typically get is a legendary book, which costs a ton in Ymens in the market (when you even get the option to buy one) [...]

Growing up in level, legendary boosters, books and gifts show up more frequently in the market. This fact does not make less valid your point, though

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Would be really really nice if we could see who they are, if we already have shards for them or not, and if so how many we need to attract the girl to our harem.  In my view the "test"  only proved that it worked in its current form, but in my opinion it is far too limited in scope to give us a good idea of whether to try it out or not beyond the free (daily?) spin.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...