The "Mythic Market" (fallout)

[Pelinor]

One thing the introduction of the Mythic items first introduction into the Market did was force players in this club to think outside of the box. For example:

Quote

Soggyshorts wrote:

I apologize in advance; this is likely to be a long-ish post.  Today's contest is well-timed for me to test a theory, so I wanted to see if we've been "playing incorrectly" by using Market refreshes to keep our harems topped off.  This, after learning that not just I, but my entire club has been "doing the CC wrong;" if I'm doing something that violates the devs' intent, then doing it correctly should alleviate much of the pain.  I see that now with the CC and I want to see how this works out with the subject of this thread. 

My theory is that the only available source of bulk XP and Aff that the game gives us is GP.  Yes, there are other sources: villains at certain tiers, Seasons, missions, but I mean bulk.  Large quantities, albeit in small denominations.  I couldn't test GP10's because I have orbs, so I did GP singles.  I'm level 351, so a single spin cost me 621,500 ymen.  So, 1,609 single spins equal 1b ymen.  For (relative) brevity, I'll only focus on the XP item economics.

The results surprised me a bit.  Those 1609 spins netted:

118 XP items (17,250 XP)

243 Aff items (18,090 Aff)

Pretty well-balanced, despite a 2:1 Aff vs XP item drop rate.

And of course, that 1b ymen wasn't actually spent, just used since I get ~70% of it back during the next Sell Items contest.  That's my long-term average from having done GP single spins for months before turning to Market refreshes.

But this isn't the whole story.  My current XP deficit is 496,158 and my Aff deficit is 207,789.  This is why I mentioned upthread that I'm much more sensitive to the loss of XP via the Market than Aff.

If I've been "playing wrong" by refreshing the Market, how many times would I have to do what I just did to close the XP deficit?  Well, 496,158 / 17,250 = 28.8 times.  At a cost of (300m ymen x 28.8) 8.64b ymen.

My current XP deficit is somewhat of an outlier because I went bonkers yesterday in a vain effort to win the LC.  Got plenty of girls but had few XP items with which to level them.  The majority of the herd is currently 3 levels behind and I have 7 girls at lv 1, untouched.  That's not a completely unreasonable scenario, but still an outlier because my play style changed because of the LC.  They're contributing ~150k XP to that deficit (149,862).  If I remove them entirely and recalculate the number of times I have to do 1609 GP single spins, I arrive at 346,296 / 17,250 =  20 times.  x 300m ymen = 6b ymen.  If I divide that by the average number of levels that the girls are behind, I would need 2b ymen per level to keep the girls topped off via GP singles.  GP10's are ~10% cheaper if you buy the spins, but that doesn't really change the conclusion.  

This is utterly unrealistic.  These are hideously expensive XP: (300m ymen / 17250 XP / 2=) 8695 ymen per XP.  Compare that to the Market costs that were calculated upthread. I haven't been "playing wrong," and either has anyone else who refreshes the Market to level and upgrade their girls.  It's the only cost-effective(ish) way to do it, and it costs kobans, lots of kobans, to do it.  Fewer if you buy a plat card, but winning a contest by doing this constitutes a rebate for doing something that is expensive in both kobans and ymen. 

In addition to "We haven't been playing wrong," my second contention is that by providing a disincentive to refreshing the market, KK has squarely shot themselves in the foot by removing a steady koban drain for assiduous and well-funded players, as well as one of the major reasons for those well-funded players to buy a platinum card.  We don't need the Market refresh discount anymore.

 

 

[Pelinor]

My experiment went like this.

I begin with a positive XP stash of 607,350 and a positive Affection stash of 743,755. For this experiment I will spend no Kobans.

A GP10 spin cost me 189.9% more than 10 GP single spins. Or putting it another way, I can do 18.99 single spins for the same cost it take me to do a GP10 spin. The extra cost of the GP10 spin is for a guaranteed Legendary piece of equipment.

Round 1: 1 GP10 spin = 1 aff item (+60) and 1 xp item (+100), 20 GP single spins = 5 aff items (+370) and 4 xp items (+380).

Investment cost 58,175,000 minus Equipment sale 28,211,705 = 29,963,295 Ymen or 2,723,935.9 Ymen per item.

Aff cost per point = 6,334.73 Ymen, XP cost per point = 5,674.86 Ymen

Round 2: 40 GP single spins = 7 aff items (+910) and 6 xp items (+580). 

Investment cost = 59,767,000 minus Equipment sale 32,523,860 = 27,243,140 Ymen or 2,095,626.1 Ymen per item.

Aff cost per point = 2,302.88 Ymen, XP cost per point = 3,613.14 Ymen

Round 3: 2xGP10 spins = 0 aff items and 4 xp items (+520)

Investment cost = 56,674,000 minus Equipment sale 30,550,496 = 26,123,504 Ymen or 6,530,876 Ymen per item.

Aff cost per point = NA, XP cost per point = 12,559.37 Ymen

 

Total investment = 83,329,939 Ymen for 28 items = 2,976,069.2 per item.

Aff increase = 1,340, XP increase = 1,580 

 

Market investment = 3,605,602 Ymen for 15 items = 240,373.46 per item.

Aff cost per point = 303.78 Ymen, XP cost per point = 299.93 Ymen

Aff increase = 6,330, XP increase = 5,610

 

It is clear to me, the Market place is better by a factor of 10+ over the random Great Pachinko rewards.

Edited June 22, 2021 by Pelinor
added Market Place results

[SoggyShorts]

Yup. Your long term average of XP and Aff would likely change with more spins (small sample), but if this is how KK expects us to gain XP and Aff, it's utterly unaffordable.  At least, you're starting with a positive balance.  I know that it gets wiped out quickly, especially now that it's not being replenished anywhere near previous rates. I was near-zero when the change was implemented.  And I effing REFUSE to refresh for things I won't buy.  Probably coincidentally, I tend to get more mythics in the XP market than I do in the Aff market.

My gameplay is already changing.  I don't go after MP girls as assiduously as I did because I cannot level them.  I just leveled myself and thought, "Crap, now the girls are ANOTHER level behind."  My morale is seriously in the crapper.  There isn't even a thought of renewing the plat card.  All the talk of us complainers being in the minority is as disingenuous as the arguments for that are specious.  This is utter joy-robbing nonsense.