Orgy Days drop rate bugged?

[waynoinsano]

I've fought Donatien over 60 times and haven't gotten a single affection drop. That's past the point of bad RNG  is anyone else having this problem?

[GeorgeMTO]

This is not past the point of bad RNG. Drops occur roughly 10% of the time, so that means you have a 90% chance of getting no drop. The chance of getting no drop 60 times in a row is roughly 0.18%

Unlikely sure, but with a sufficiently large playerbase, gonna happen to someone.

Bad RNG is not a bug.

[Moonlynx]

Same here. I got very lucky and started these Orgy Days with 24 shards in 10 fights. But then I had 50 fights without a single shard. This happens and is absolutely within the range of normal RNG behavior.

Sure, I have the growing feeling that the RNG is slightly meaner than several months ago. But I couldn't validate that yet and I refuse to base that on single occurrences like this. Having bad luck sometimes is just normal. Although some kind of ''bad luck protection'' that detects very unlucky players and helps them out a little bit would be nice. Maybe someone should suggest this to the Devs.

Anyhow, I'll cross my fingers that your streak of bad luck is over soon.

[DvDivXXX]

7 hours ago, Moonlynx said:

Sure, I have the growing feeling that the RNG is slightly meaner than several months ago. But I couldn't validate that yet and I refuse to base that on single occurrences like this. Having bad luck sometimes is just normal.

Exactly. The human brain is simultaneously obsessed with pattern recognition and extremely bad at estimating odds, which is a terrible mix (not to mention all the other biases at play). That's why you write down your actual results and make actual stats over time.

@waynoinsano Do the above for long enough, and if and only if the data itself backs it up (with a large and reliable sample size, not a tiny dot on the chart like 60 fights), let your human brain enjoy itself by screaming bloody murder over it. The rest of the time, when your gut feeling says "aHA! I knew this was rigged" whenever you're not on a good run, you can check your data and calmly tell your human brain to "shut up, Chad". Instead of reporting variance as a "bug".