Liliat Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) Hey, So, I've seen several players suggesting different drop rates for Shards on Champions, during Classic Event and during Orgy Days. In the recent patch notes, the number of shards went up (From 20 to 35), but as far as I know, we don't have actual proper data on the drop rates. Since most of the discussion is currently happening in the Patch Notes thread, and that's not the best place to collect data, I thought I'd open this thread to start getting proper feedback from players, about their drop rates. It would be nice if you could provide data: - Stage #: Drop (Note: please include the Stage Number. We know that Stage 1-4 may drop shards, whereas Stage 5 will never drop anything. I just want to make sure players don't report invalid data from Stage 5, which would artificially reduce the average number of shards). So far, for me, during the current Classic Event: - Stage 1: No shards - Stage 2: 35 shards - Stage 3: 35 shards - Stage 4: No shards - Stage 5: (No shards - obviously) - Stage 1: No shards 😭 On test server: - (Stage 5: No shards - obviously) - Stage 1: No shards - Stage 2: No shards - Stage 3: No shards - Stage 4: 35 shards These values should help determine if it's worth it to play the Champions during these events. For reference, here are some stats about global chances, assuming a pessimistic drop rate of 1/7 (14.3%), and an optimistic drop rate of 1/2 (50%), for players who'd defeat the first 4 stages of a Champion (Stage 1 to 4): With 1/7 Drop rate: - 105 Shards: 1% - 70 Shards: 9% - 35 Shards: 36% - 0 Shard: 54% With 1/2 Drop rate: - 105 Shards: 31.25% - 70 Shards: 37.50% - 35 Shards: 25.00% - 0 Shard: 6.25% Edited February 9, 2022 by Liliat Update shard drops data 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rarum Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Hopefully these are correct; I have to do it from memory now since this recording wasn't started before. Stage 2: 35 shards Stage 3: No shards Stage 4: 35 shards On the test server I know I have 35 shards, but I didn't keep track of if it was in three or two wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulie2 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) Stage 2 : 35 Shards. Stage 3 : 35 Shards. If it's 1/2 it's a good drop i feel like, at least for classic event (can't really speak for OD) edit: I even feel like it's generous at this point, since it's on a third girl that we shouldn't be able to get out of the pachinko, but ig i need to test it further before ironing my opinion (but i'm thankful for the concept, at least) Edited February 4, 2022 by Boulie2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garadron Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 stage 3 no shards stage 4 shards stage 5 nope because nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirusssd Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) stage 1 no shards stage 2 no shards stage 3 35 shards Edited February 4, 2022 by Pirusssd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator bolitho76 Posted February 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 4, 2022 stage 2 no shards stage 3 35 shards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Attirm Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 So far: Stage 1: 35 shards Stage 2: no shards Stage 3: 35 shards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
45026831 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 I got lucky. 3 shard drops in a row on stages 1, 2 and 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulie2 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Stage 4 : 35 shards. Same as above, i was lucky enough to get shards 3 times in a row! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Kenrae Posted February 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 4, 2022 Stage 4: no shards Stage 5: 10 kisses Stage 1: no shards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 4, 2022 8 hours ago, Liliat said: I thought I'd open this thread to start getting proper feedback from players, about their drop rates. Thanks a bunch for doing this! 👍 I took the liberty of abusing my mod powers to move your thread to the Feedback section, pin it, feature it, as per this forum's tradition for this type of data collection community project. I even went all toxic and added a few tags that I think might help. Hopefully this won't scare away too many good people from participating. /s Seriously, though, much appreciated and looking forward to contributing to this nth "guess the drop rate they don't announce" community project. We should be able to estimate pretty soon whether the "Girl on a Champion" is actually a thing or just a myth attached to what's actually still a Pachinko exclusive girl. We can do it, folks! ^^ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 4, 2022 (edited) My own data: Stage 2: 35 shards Stage 3: garbage Stage 4: garbage Edited February 5, 2022 by DvDivXXX updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Attirm Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Update: Stage 1: 35 shards Stage 2: no shards Stage 3: 35 shards Stage 4: 35 shards I'm done and won't have to waste a day rushing through stage 5 🙂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 We need no more data: 19 shard drops of 31 tries is not compatible with 1/7 drop rate, and it is well over 50%. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liliat Posted February 5, 2022 Author Share Posted February 5, 2022 I like 50%, it makes the math a lot easier So, assuming 36 Hours per champion (12 Hours to beat him, 24 Hours to reload), without spending Kobans, we can have: - Up to 6 fights during Classic, only 5 of which actually can provide Shards (Classic should line up nicely with KC, so beating Stage 5 is usually not wasted) - Up to 4 fights during OD In both cases it's tight, so removing 1 fight is more realistic. I'll keep both values. With 6 Fights (-1 because of Stage 5, so only 5 "proper" fights): - 50% to get 105 Shards - 31.25% to get 70 Shards - 15.625% to get 35 Shards - 3.125% to get 0 Shard With 4 Fights: - 31.25% to get 105 Shards - 37.50% to get 70 Shards - 25.00% to get 35 Shards - 6.25% to get 0 Shard With 3 Fights: - 12.5% to get 105 Shards - 37.5% to get 70 Shards - 37.5% to get 35 Shards - 12.5% to get 0 Shard With 2 Fights: - 25% to get 70 Shards - 50% to get 35 Shards - 25% to get 0 Shard All in all, I find the odds in Classic pretty decent (31% without too much effort, up to 50% if you're spending a lot of time on Champions. 6 fights is probably mostly realistic for newer players with low-level champions, I'd say, since beating Stage 5 usually takes more time otherwise). And even if you miss the girl, having 68% chances to get at least 70 shards is still good, considering there will be other opportunities (revivals). For OD, it's a lot lower, but these are revival girls: there's a chance you would already have shards for them. And if you spend some time on champions, 31% to get the girl "for free" is still worth a try. We already have 2 reports of players getting the girl in 3 fights in this thread, which is a 12.5% chance, so even that is doable (three times a year on average for everyone, if they beat at least 3 stages on OD + CE). And of course, if you have a Monthly Card that allows unlimited Champions battles, that's a (not-so-)free girl every time Now, I don't know the history of revivals in OD. When girls are revived, are they usually obtainable with the same method that was used for CE? For example, if a girl is Pachinko-Exclusive in CE, will she be Pachinko-Exclusive in OD? And, more importantly, if she's available on Villains, will she be available on Villains again in OD as well? Or is that random? Because getting <100 Shards for a girl isn't all that interesting, if she only comes back in Pachinko afterwards. But it's definitely interesting if she comes back as a Shards-based option (Villains or Champions). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 5, 2022 Moderator Share Posted February 5, 2022 3 hours ago, jelom said: We need no more data: 19 shard drops of 31 tries is not compatible with 1/7 drop rate, and it is well over 50%. 2 hours ago, Liliat said: I like 50%, it makes the math a lot easier I agree 1/7 looks very unlikely and 50% isn't unlikely based on the fairly small samples gathered so far. But while we're at it, why not keep sharing our results at least until the end of this event (and maybe also for the next OD, just in case the rate isn't the same for that)? I mean, 1/7 and 50% were the two main hypotheses, but we still don't have enough hard data to make a solid estimate of the actual observed drop rate. Knowing Kinkoid, 50% is entirely possible, but 47.5 or 66.6 aren't off the table either. ^^ 2 hours ago, Liliat said: Now, I don't know the history of revivals in OD. When girls are revived, are they usually obtainable with the same method that was used for CE? For a long time, it was the exact same (basically just a copy-paste and superposition of the pre-OD basic revivals that were just the exact same event coming back a year later but shorter, and with one rotation starting with the second revival of a given event). For the past year or so, it changed a lot and it's now almost the opposite, but still with random parts. Typically, they try to put previously Pachinko exclusive girls on the Missions and on Villains. We're almost a year away from the first time the question will present itself for "Girls on a Champion", so we can only speculate (and KK themselves might not know yet). I'd be surprised if they don't make a rotation when the time comes, though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gartalgar Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 (edited) For me so far : Stage 2: 35 shards Stage 3: 35 shards Stage 4: no shards Stage 5 Stage 1 : 35 shards Edited February 8, 2022 by Gartalgar new data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayguer Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Stage 1: 35 shards Stage 2: 35 shards Stage 3: no shards Stage 4: 35 shards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerard Cocks Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Stage 2: 35 shards Stage 3: no shards Stage 4: 35 shards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lumpi46 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Stage 1: 35 shards Stage 2: no shards 🙁 Stage 3: no shards ☹️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirusssd Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 (edited) stage 1 no shards stage 2 no shards stage 3 35 shards stage 4 no shards Edited February 7, 2022 by Pirusssd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lumpi46 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/6/2022 at 12:28 AM, Lumpi46 said: Stage 1: 35 shards Stage 2: no shards 🙁 Stage 3: no shards ☹️ Update Stage 4: 35 shards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirusssd Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 (edited) stage 1 no shards stage 2 no shards stage 3 35 shards stage 4 no shards stage 5 dont gives shards stage 1 no shards Edited February 8, 2022 by Pirusssd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garadron Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/4/2022 at 4:08 PM, garadron said: stage 3 no shards stage 4 shards stage 5 nope because nope stage 1 shards stage 2 no shards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alander Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 stage 5 dont gives shards stage 1 35 shards stage 2 no shards stage 3 35 shards stage 4 35 shards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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