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27 minutes ago, Kenrae said:

Where does this love for Red come from?

I used to grossly underestimate Red myself. My eyes were opened through a long and detailed discussion with Sly when I asked him basically the same question you just asked me ^^ (it's not visible to non-mod eyes, but it's still you know where if you want an even longer read from yours truly ^^) and a crucial follow-up on that I had with my wife (who is an expert min-maxer in actual ARPGs and Hack/Slash games, and when given the relevant numbers helped me realize how insane Red's bonus was compared to Orange's). Orange is still pretty high up there, don't get me wrong, and of course depending on your level and situation it can vary. In my experience, Red serves me better than everything but Dark and Blue (both of which make Red better and vice versa).

This is all in the post-mono meta, mind you. With full Rainbow and maxed out passive bonuses being prevalent and basically almost the best option anyway, we already have Harmony values through the roof, and we can expect to have at least 1 crit per fight on average. In that context, a flat +2% to Crit Chance, while not bad (certainly 10 times better than Purple's +2% to Harmony) makes very little difference at the end of the day. Whereas a flat +10% to Crit DAMAGE from Red, even if it doesn't trigger all the time, is HUGE. With maxed out elemental passives, the floor Orange adds up to is +7% Crit Chance (on top of the already high chance from super high Harmony anyway), whereas the floor Red adds up to is +35% Crit DAMAGE, and each Red girl in the team gives +10 rather than +2. Just Alexa in my team boosts that to +45% damage when I do crit, which is over my Dark girls' flat boost to damage, period, and feeds my Blue girls' Lifesteal, which is based on damage done. So yeah, as counter-intuitive as it may seem (and I can relate, I used to feel that way as well), Red is a LOT more impactful than Orange, and in my opinion the most impactful along with Dark and Blue. In my experience, not just in desperate situations, but pretty much at all times.

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17 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

I used to grossly underestimate Red myself. My eyes were opened through a long and detailed discussion with Sly when I asked him basically the same question you just asked me ^^ (it's not visible to non-mod eyes, but it's still you know where if you want an even longer read from yours truly ^^) and a crucial follow-up on that I had with my wife (who is an expert min-maxer in actual ARPGs and Hack/Slash games, and when given the relevant numbers helped me realize how insane Red's bonus was compared to Orange's). Orange is still pretty high up there, don't get me wrong, and of course depending on your level and situation it can vary. In my experience, Red serves me better than everything but Dark and Blue (both of which make Red better and vice versa).

This is all in the post-mono meta, mind you. With full Rainbow and maxed out passive bonuses being prevalent and basically almost the best option anyway, we already have Harmony values through the roof, and we can expect to have at least 1 crit per fight on average. In that context, a flat +2% to Crit Chance, while not bad (certainly 10 times better than Purple's +2% to Harmony) makes very little difference at the end of the day. Whereas a flat +10% to Crit DAMAGE from Red, even if it doesn't trigger all the time, is HUGE. With maxed out elemental passives, the floor Orange adds up to is +7% Crit Chance (on top of the already high chance from super high Harmony anyway), whereas the floor Red adds up to is +35% Crit DAMAGE, and each Red girl in the team gives +10 rather than +2. Just Alexa in my team boosts that to +45% damage when I do crit, which is over my Dark girls' flat boost to damage, period, and feeds my Blue girls' Lifesteal, which is based on damage done. So yeah, as counter-intuitive as it may seem (and I can relate, I used to feel that way as well), Red is a LOT more impactful than Orange, and in my opinion the most impactful along with Dark and Blue. In my experience, not just in desperate situations, but pretty much at all times.

It's not about intuition, it's about bare numbers. Every simulation I make substituting a Red girl for an Orange girl with the same exact power provides better results. I'm talking about league simulations, because we're talking mostly about the league, right? Nowadays the sim we have in HH++ gives an exact number, but it happened the same with the previous bruteforced simulator. Orange systematically gives a higher average score.

You have an error in your text. Having huge harmony doesn't give huge crit chances, because the opponents have huge harmony too, and what matters is your relative comparison, not the harmony number itself. So base crit chance from harmony is going to be near 25% most of the time.

Orange crit chance increase is also over Dark and Blue boosts, so that can't be a plus on Red.

Funny that you mention the 35% Red passive bonus we "all" have on crit damage, because that's what makes Orange shine actually. Just a single extra crit on a battle is huge, much more than a comparatively small 10% extra damage on all crits. Keep in mind than a crit is already a double damage hit without passive bonuses, you're not going from +35% to +45%, you're going from +135% to +145%, that's not as big as you think. In comparison, just a single extra crit is enormous, it's like having more than one extra attack.
Of course, the extra crit chance from Orange is not going to give you an extra crit on every battle, otherwise it would be the number 1 element by far, but over the course of a league it's going to give you more points than Red.

Anyway, the most important argument here is that we have a simulator, and it gives higher average scores using Orange girls over Red girls in most situations. There's no better mathematical tool than that.

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1 hour ago, Kenrae said:

a crit is already a double damage hit without passive bonuses, you're not going from +35% to +45%, you're going from +135% to +145%

That's pretty intriguing as my understanding was that the crit damage bonus was applied on the doubled damage. So not 100%+135% but... whatever "[2x(your normal damage)] x 1.35" gives. I'd love to have confirmation either way.

1 hour ago, Kenrae said:

You have an error in your text. Having huge harmony doesn't give huge crit chances, because the opponents have huge harmony too, and what matters is your relative comparison, not the harmony number itself. So base crit chance from harmony is going to be near 25% most of the time.

That's not what I implied? At least not what I meant to imply. Huge Harmony on both sides means it's typically either a wash or slightly in our favor on that front, so the natural 25-ish% kicks in, yup. Plus the base +7% from the (maxed out) Orange passive. So about 1/3 chance to crit with every attack, and we're always the attacker, and most fights last 3 rounds or more, so 1 crit per fight on average. Which makes crits frequent enough that boosting them a lot is worth it over time.

Either way, I'm not sure the simulator isn't still being somewhat conservative when it comes to things like crit chance, and the opponent's passive bonuses in general. By default, it assumes the opponent has maxed out passives (which is often the case at least with competitive players in top D3, granted, but not always). I'm honestly not familiar enough with how Numbers' current simulator works (I wanted to ping him there but I forgot his... number ^^, doesn't it start with 1245? 1425? 1542?). I might still be used to taking script estimations with a pinch of salt especially for crits, as the old one used to assume the worst case scenario for a long time (no crit for you, 1 for the opponent) so obviously it didn't reflect the impact of Red girls correctly. I'd love to know more on how it currently works though.

1 hour ago, Kenrae said:

Orange crit chance increase is also over Dark and Blue boosts, so that can't be a plus on Red.

Sure, in a way that's fair. But in terms of how the battle unfolds, and if I'm not mistaken on what "crit damage bonus" precisely entails, then a Red boost on your one crit would make a lot more damage and heal you for a lot more (unless it happens on round 1, ofc) than a potential extra "regular" crit thanks to Orange. There's more synergy between Dark, Blue and Red than with Orange is what I'm getting at. If it works like you detailed though, then it might be that I overestimated Red and it could be more on par with Orange than I thought.

For Orange to make a significant difference, you'd need at least 3 or 4 girls in the team, to get around 40-ish% instead of 33-ish. For Red, again depending on whether it's just a boost on the extra damage and not on the total damage made during a crit turn, just 2 girls already push you from a generous third to well over a half, which seems nuts. It scales a lot better, basically. I don't think either of these active bonuses are best measured or exploited by swapping just the one girl in or out (I'm not saying that's the only way you tested this, just reacting to your example).

In any case, this is interesting and I'm not arguing for the sake of it. I'm genuinely interested in knowing what actually works best and looking forward to experimenting and perhaps adjusting further if you're on to something (applicable to me ^^). Thank you, Ken.

 

1 hour ago, Liliat said:

Your last few messages are sooo confusing, because Red is Orange! 🤣

It just hit me! :D "Level Up Red" has the Orange element, so it's confusing when I call her "Red" for short and also speak about "Red" as the color she doesn't have. Pretty clever, and fair. ^^ Damn, my fever makes me slow.

Come to think of it, with a name like Red Battler how did they even consider another color than Red for her element? Roses are red, violets are blue, and Red is orange. :ph34r:🍎🍏

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6 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

Either way, I'm not sure the simulator isn't still being somewhat conservative when it comes to things like crit chance, and the opponent's passive bonuses in general. By default, it assumes the opponent has maxed out passives (which is often the case at least with competitive players in top D3, granted, but not always). I'm honestly not familiar enough with how Numbers' current simulator works (I wanted to ping him there but I forgot his... number ^^, doesn't it start with 1245? 1425? 1542?). I might still be used to taking script estimations with a pinch of salt especially for crits, as the old one used to assume the worst case scenario for a long time (no crit for you, 1 for the opponent) so obviously it didn't reflect the impact of Red girls correctly. I'd love to know more on how it currently works though.

I recall a post from @45026831  (;)) saying that now we have variables with more exact numbers (no pun intended) for opponents available from javascript code. But that's not really important because it's been a while since the simulator doesn't assume much about crits, since it's pure odds now. Specially about your own crits, it has all the information it needs, and that's what's important for this discussion. Numbers simulation calculated your average doing 10,000 battles without any assumption at all, and that's quite good already, but recently he received a new version from someone else that doesn't even make an approximation like that and it calculates the exact percentage.

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7 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

it's confusing when I call her "Red" for short and also speak about "Red"

Strange that someone so meticulous with the use of words didn't thought of the obvious solution was using lower case for the colors (red) and upper case for the girl name even if shortened (Red when referring to Level Up Red ... Battler).

Remember, grammar is your friend ;) (and even mine, with my not so good English. BTW, what am I doing giving advices on how to use a language I am not a native speaker?)

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3 hours ago, Kenrae said:

I recall a post from @45026831  (;)) saying that now we have variables with more exact numbers (no pun intended) for opponents available from javascript code. But that's not really important because it's been a while since the simulator doesn't assume much about crits, since it's pure odds now. Specially about your own crits, it has all the information it needs, and that's what's important for this discussion. Numbers simulation calculated your average doing 10,000 battles without any assumption at all, and that's quite good already, but recently he received a new version from someone else that doesn't even make an approximation like that and it calculates the exact percentage.

Correct, the current sim checks every possible outcome and then aggregates the percentage chances needed to reach each outcome.

There currently is 1 problem which makes the sim conservative, though. There's a bug (regression) in the game currently where your ego isn't shown with the 10% bonus in a domination scenario on the league page stats. I could add this back again, but it's low priority and something KK really should fix.

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  • Thank you all.
     
  • I'll keep an eye on Orange vs Red (if Orange is stronger that's actually good news for me: I own both Orange Mythics but only one of the Reds).
     
  • 450. 450. 450... ^^
     
  • Nah, I should just keep calling her Tina. Capitalizing colors for Elements makes more sense everywhere else. Plus, she's been in my Harem for almost 3 years... I think we should be on a first name basis by now. ^^
     
  • Lol yeah, it's likely they actually thought about the "Physical" association for Tina. Considering how inconsistent the attribution of Classes and Elements are in general and even for multiple variants of the same character, though... I wish they hadn't thought of it that one time.

EDIT: So, @45026831 (I remembered! ^^), could you please confirm what "Crit Damage" bonus actually entails (if you know for sure, which I'm guessing if anyone does it would be you)? Is the bonus only applied to the extra damage as Ken described, or the total damage for the crit turn, as I thought so far? Thanks in advance, and in retrospect and forever more.

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Crit damage has a base value of +100% on normal damage, i.e. double damage. Physical element bonus is then additive to that. So for example a full passive 35% Eccentric/fire/red bonus is a bonus of +135% on top of normal damage, or in other words, 235% of normal damage total.

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It's hard to give a definitive answer to "Orange vs Red", because these 2 bonuses multiply with each other. So, ideally, you want them balanced. If you have a high crit chance (e.g. high Harmony vs a low-harmony player, +20% crit chance from elemental domination, ...), you want to add more Red girls to maximize the effect of your critical hits. However, having high crit damage with low crit chance is pointless, so you want to maximize crit chances in that case.

I've tested several teams on my current Pantheon floor, and 3 red or 3 oranges are just as bad. 2 Red and 1 Orange give much "better" chances (See below).

Also, because of how battles work, it might happen that one element becomes better than another in some very specific cases. For example, if you have 100k HP and your opponent does 20.5k damage per round, they can beat you in 5 rounds. Having just +3% HP from a single Green girl can help you survive one more round (5.02 rounds, rounded up to 6 rounds), which can make a huge difference (Effectively giving you +20% "HP" for this specific fight). So if you want to maximize your efficiency, you need to be very flexible with your teams, which is why I wouldn't recommend neglecting any element.

Simulated results for my current Pantheon floor (Win chances in 10 Millions):

- Team 1: 3 Red = 284

- Team 2: 3 Orange = 71

- Team 3: 2 Red, 1 Orange = 546

- Team 4: 1 Red, 2 Orange = 38

(Yeah, that's still way below 0.01% :D )

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I can only speak for myself here, as in what I get with my account.

Note: Results may slightly vary depending on the bracket strength and active blessings, the results below was made from my current bracket.

My average fights (in Dicktator 3) lasts for ~4.5 hits done by me (with AME, so it would likely be 5 without AME).
My average crit per fight is just above ~1.

With the above results, I calculated the following:
100 opponents = 300 fights, with 4.5 hits I make 300 x 4.5 = 1350 hits done total

1 Orange with 2% crit chance should then give me an additional ~27 crits (1350 x 0.02 = 27), 1 Orange should give me at least 27 extra points in an entire league.
Whilst 1 red gives me 10% additive crit damage 300 times (because I crit once per fight on average), which means more damage and more healing 300 times, 273 more times than 1 Orange. 

Now, the crits with 1 red doesnt guarantee more points per crit (unlike orange), but it's very likely that it gives me more than 27 points imho.

umm I need head out now so this became a bit sloppier than I hoped! sry about that!

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1 hour ago, 45026831 said:

235% of normal damage total.

So Ken was right. Thanks a lot, this means I overestimated the Red bonus a bit (after underestimating it in the past ^^).

1 hour ago, Liliat said:

So if you want to maximize your efficiency, you need to be very flexible with your teams, which is why I wouldn't recommend neglecting any element.

Except when you consider synergies and redundancy. The tiny value of Defense in general and the lack of equipment or booster to specifically increase it (contrary to Attack or HP) means that neither White nor Yellow are ever the answer. Purple would never be the answer either due to the low boost it gives to Harmony which already scales poorly and is already high across the board, but on top of that Orange's existence negates Purple, period.

As for Green, well, if just a bit of extra HP is what you need to last one more round, boosting your HP can be tempting. But just like chlorellas' brief time in the sun is now behind us, Green's flat HP bonus is outclassed by Blue's dynamic Lifesteal and its synergy with Dark's increased Attack, as well as Orange and/or Red. That extra Green girl gives you +3% of your total HP once. The extra Blue girl, if you do enough damage to get her rolling, can give you a lot more HP than that, continuously throughout the fight. Or that extra Dark girl, if you have enough Lifesteal. These are synergistic effects, and they activate every turn (except on turn 1 for Blue), whereas Green is a consumable bonus. Also, with Leagues in mind, since Green increases your total HP and your score (when you win) depends on the % of your total HP you're missing at the end of the fight, Blue helps you more than Green (and they lack synergy together, since your Lifesteal is not relative to your total HP).

So, we're left with Dark and Blue being the right answers to most questions. Thanks to this thread, the jury is still out there again for Red and/or Orange to best support them (but it could be a combination of both). The other 4 colors can look pretty, though. ^^

Ofc, this is a bit tongue-in-cheek as even without obsessing about Blessings and how they can put everything upside down each week, stats über alles. For all my praise of Dark, Blue and Red... I'm running two Green girls and two Orange girls right now. ^^ Why? Well, because I only have 1 Dark, 1 Blue and 1 Red in my Mythic roster. So my best unblessed team has to include the next best thing. And running unblessed 5-star Legendaries of the better elements instead wouldn't make up for the sheer amount of raw stats I'd lose in the process.

Edited by DvDivXXX
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1 hour ago, Slynia said:

1 Orange with 2% crit chance should then give me an additional ~27 crits (1350 x 0.02 = 27), 1 Orange should give me at least 27 extra points in an entire league.
Whilst 1 red gives me 10% additive crit damage 300 times (because I crit once per fight on average), which means more damage and more healing 300 times, 273 more times than 1 Orange. 

That's not a valid comparison, you're comparing apples to oranges :) . Let's compare damage output for both, we can do that.

  • Let's asume you have 6 girls who are not orange nor red and you need to decide on a 7th one.
  • 1 red gives 10% more damage 300 times, yes. Let's asume a base damage of 100, to have it easy, so that's 300*10 = 3000
  • 1 orange gives ~27 crits, ok. If we asume full passives that's 135% more damage for every extra crit. So with a base damage of 100, that's 135*27 = 3645

So, your 27 crits do more damage throughout a league.

Of course this is an approximation, like anything we can manually do. But we have an exact simulator to make the work for us nowadays. It can even depend on your particular opponent, like it happens between dark and blue, so you can check for every battle if you want. I've done that many times, and most of the time orange is better :P. But not always.

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2 hours ago, Kenrae said:

That's not a valid comparison, you're comparing apples to oranges :) . Let's compare damage output for both, we can do that.

But this doesn't translate to better, as better in leagues is only more points gained. 

2 hours ago, Kenrae said:

So, your 27 crits do more damage throughout a league.

I know very well that 2% crit chance is more total damage than 10% crit damage, I even said so in the mod discussion thread that crit damage should be 10x that of crit chance for maximum DPS is rpg games like Diablo 3, in HH red is only 5x. 

However, more total damage does not mean more points gained. In Pantheon's Stairway orange is absolutely better, but not in leagues, at least not for my account, is what I'm getting at.

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3 hours ago, Slynia said:

But this doesn't translate to better, as better in leagues is only more points gained. 

I know very well that 2% crit chance is more total damage than 10% crit damage, I even said so in the mod discussion thread that crit damage should be 10x that of crit chance for maximum DPS is rpg games like Diablo 3, in HH red is only 5x. 

However, more total damage does not mean more points gained. In Pantheon's Stairway orange is absolutely better, but not in leagues, at least not for my account, is what I'm getting at.

Actually, in Pantheon walls red is better, because it gives you some slight chances where you had none :P.

Is the simulator giving you better average scores with orange than red girls? Because that's what it comes down to.

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6 hours ago, Kenrae said:

Actually, in Pantheon walls red is better, because it gives you some slight chances where you had none :P.

Is the simulator giving you better average scores with orange than red girls? Because that's what it comes down to

I was about to say that but orange gives us so much more actual value at pantheon because their high harmony there, but indeed full class cannon and hope for crits is still better when our chances to win are slim ^^

Not in my book. You can believe in what you want and I'll keep believeing in my theory instead that 1 red > 1 orange when it comes to score more points in leagues. 😉

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Yeah, for (high) Pantheon Walls, the odds are so ridiculously stacked against us that a hail-mary is the only strat with a hope in hell. My logic there is "I can only possibly win if I do multiple crits against all odds, no matter what, so might as well go with the team that makes the best of it if/when that happens". So Red. But I've been stuck at 1700 (and at 0%) for close to a month now, so... ^^ Anyway, that's another story altogether.

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55 minutes ago, Kenrae said:

Fwiw, we're discussing the relative ordering between 3rd and 4th option. We agree on that, right? :P

I sure think so. We all agree Dark and Blue are top-tier, that White, Purple and Yellow are garbage-tier, and that Green is oh-kay-tier. I don't think there's much question that all rank Red and Orange somewhere between Blue and Green.

Sly and I would place Red at the bottom of top-tier, or at the top of good-tier and Orange a fair bit lower than Red, but still in good-tier, well above Green.

You would basically switch Red and Orange in the sentence above, and otherwise we fairly much agree?

(Edit: and depending on how detailed or broad we want to be, we could also generously move White up to the bottom of oh-kay tier, and even differentiate between Purple at the top and Yellow at the bottom of garbage-tier... But in general anything below Green is bad, anything above Green is good, and Green is kind of where I'd draw the line).

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