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Sultry Mysteries


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21 hours ago, Liliat said:

The list of rewards is the same for everyone, too (Well, except for the fact that the actual position of each tile is random)

Not really. Different books, different affection items

Perhaps it depends on the level of the player or something. For most it's a Spellbook and a Bracelet, but for some it's a Magazine and Flowers

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1 minute ago, Antimon said:

Do we have an official statement about their plans for this event's recurrency? 

I'm guessing monthly. There's pretty much 0 work required to rerun this every month - no new girls etc. And it would be nice to have that shop available as often as possible. I wouldn't even mind if they'd just change it from an event to core feature :D

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il y a 15 minutes, Antimon a dit :

Do we have an official statement about their plans for this event's recurrency? 

No statement as far as I read on Discord. 

My guess (or wish, I let you choose 😁) is this event will happen monthly from the 2nd to the 6th.

 

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Since it's a kind of replacement for the retired Dating Tokens, it would make sense to see this event/feature come back every month during Mythic Days (Dating Tokens could be used at any time, but they could only be acquired by fighting villains during Mythic Days - just like this current event. Only real difference is this event lasts for 4 days instead of 3)

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Il y a 1 heure, Liliat a dit :

Dating Tokens could be used at any time, but they could only be acquired by fighting villains during Mythic Days

Actually, dating tokens could be acquired during the whole classic event by fighting villains and with epic pachinko 😉

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12 hours ago, Master-17 said:

Not really. Different books, different affection items

Perhaps it depends on the level of the player or something. For most it's a Spellbook and a Bracelet, but for some it's a Magazine and Flowers

Umm. No.

Here's lvl 157 fully unlocked grid from test server:

mPEBw3k.png

 

The difference you're pointing to is just diffrent icons between HH and CxH.

But it's the same 3 book drops and 3 gift drops in each.

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I've put together some python code to simulate some grid refresh strategies. It takes the 15 starting keys, 12 from the daily goal chests, and 63 from 900 combativity (daily regen + refreshes for the MD with a 7% key drop rate). It will use any extra keys it gets as rewards and any it gets from the extra combativity rewarded. When it can refresh the grid it will check if the expect rewards (not factoring extra from any keys or combativity then rewarded) is better for all selected reward categories for a new grid, if so it will refresh. Running the sim for 100,000 run for a variety of options gives the following graphs. (note: Kobans are in Nutaku values)

Best Categories: None (no grid refreshes)

cat_none.thumb.png.acbc5397ff71f8dc5e9db11b753ba26a.png

Best Category: Sultry Coins

cat_1.thumb.png.d0d015c9ed0a317202902d1dbe99ff17.png

Best Category: Keys

cat_2.thumb.png.edebd58c92bbe1002c0b4f5a87cbc333.png

Best Categories: Sultry Coins and Keys

cat_1_2.thumb.png.8602cf10350b1d46c8590d9580e33084.png

Best Categories: Sultry Coins, Keys, and Combativity

cat_1_2_4.thumb.png.654c76c13548ece0707879fe2f1d0ea4.png

Best Categories: Sultry Coins, Keys, Kobans, and Combativity

cat_2.thumb.png.edebd58c92bbe1002c0b4f5a87cbc333.png

To help calculate the expected values I've made this spreadsheet you can copy and use. Was thinking of putting such info into my script, but that wouldn't be done anytime soon. DM me on discord if you want the python code to test out yourself.

cat_1_2_3_4.png

Edited by zoopokemon
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By the way, regardless of being able to hover or not, if anyone is stuck and can't figure out which girl is showing, well two things:

  1. It's a girl that will show up in your harem if you filter by "1-99" shards. And you have 40% or more of her. For most players, this should be a fairly reasonable way of finding out. I'm aware some will have dozens of unfinished girls (sigh) but still, that's child's play in terms of playing Where is Waldo? compared to the whole 1.3k roster. ^^
     
  2. If you're really desperate, many players here can easily tell you just from the avatar. Well, okay, maybe not that many, but me at least. Like, the last two posts complaining about this showed Ombresse and Alt. Delta respectively.
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I bought Janine from the Sultry shop! I missed only 12 shards, that was a great acquisition.

I got her only 6 minutes before she would've expired (and replaced by Sailor Skytte which was missing more shards). I had only 45 coins, so It was a rush to get the three extra coins needed. I'm happy that I've managed to get her.

As I'm having many 5* that I can get from Sultry shop, I will focus on them. On the top of the list are Rachael and Madame Ivanka, and Janine was the third on that list ;)

I might take a 3* girl from the shop, if it would need 20 shards or less and is not obtainable currently by regular means.

Edited by OmerB
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2 hours ago, OmerB said:

I might take a 3* girl from the shop, if it would need 20 shards or less and is not obtainable currently by regular means.

I would storage coins until I have the amount that would be needed to get all the 5* I need and only after I have this amount storaged invest in 3* girls. With a little bit luck can you gain most of the 5* while you collect coins.

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Well, I guess this system does reward something that I considered bad play so far, with this 40+ cap.

Now that I've of course completed the unreleased HCL girl from the KC where I messed up the timing and ended up at 96%, well... The SM Shop has only the current CC girl and the CE one on Visor to show me.

No workaround to the lack of non-prehistoric LD girl revivals for me...

image.png

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17 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

Well, I guess this system does reward something that I considered bad play so far, with this 40+ cap.

Actually, I think this system will reward you most. You are in a situation where you can form a strategy around sultry coins. With your assumed 160 coins after Mythic Days you can save a lot of kobans during next Legendary Days, as you can be sure you can finalize the LD girl during next Sultry Mysteries.

As I am mostly playing 100% or nothing when going for girls, I hope to come into a similar situation sooner or later, but currently I have still 3 old event girls at 70% and 4 Sake tier one girls available in my pool.

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51 minutes ago, Bobick said:

With your assumed 160 coins after Mythic Days

I wish. ^^ I had terrible key drops so far (even beyond MD). I also bought 200g for 36 coins once because this felt like a decent deal for a color I badly need (might be a mistake in retrospect). Along with the aforementioned 16 coins to complete my 96% Nina, I barely have 39 coins left now...

But your point stands, hopefully, for future LDs indeed. At the very least I'll make sure to grab at least 40% of the girl even when I can't afford to go for her and just grab whatever I can from natural regen. Because now it means I'll at least have a shot at finishing the LD girl later on.

It's for the slightly older ones, but not quite old enough to remember the dinosaurs, that I'm concerned slash bothered. The Madelines, Hildas and IXIVs out there to whom Kinkoid never gives a revival and that I have at ~35%. While they're constantly re-reviving the original 14 relics that are in the MP pool anyway.

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I definitely was overly optimistic in terms of the odds of grabbing the coin tiles and being able to reset quickly. I've rarely been in a position where resetting after 15 tiles is reasonable, and when I have been it's often far from ideal. I'm almost always missing substantial rewards by the 15 tile mark, and it doesn't make sense to reset when more than half the rewards are still to be uncovered. 

As a result, despite having obtained nearly 100 keys by this point (due to getting this month's mythic) I'm only at about 120 coins. Presuming I've been a little bit unlucky (which is entirely possible, as I've had multiple grids where I ended up opening almost the entire board. In one case, the 10-coin, 5-coin, and 3-key tiles were in my last 5 tiles) this corroborates the estimate by @renalove on the previous page that roughly 1.4 coins per key is what you can expect. His approach of estimating the current value of the remaining grid is what I was using.

To make matters worse, I have too many girls with 40+ shards so the odds of drawing one I want is quick low. Kinky Cumpetition is a relatively expensive event to participate in, but is one where normal daily activities are likely to generate 40+ shards over the course of the event, so there are a lot of girls that I intentionally passed on that are clogging up the Sultry Mysteries shop. So in all likelihood, even if I had more coins I would probably be waiting until next month anyways to spend them.

Overall, a very stingy event but it is at least free resources.

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Argh, all those Orgy Days girls that I tried to get from Champions but only ended up getting two drops of are clogging my 40+ shards list 😭

Oh well, at least now I have a chance of getting some of the early Leagues girls (and the first two Boss Bang girls). I can be patient.

This is also extra incentive to clear villains as quickly as possible, as some of those girls are popping up in the Sultry Mysteries shop.

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I tested @renalove method with my sim, it was the highest amount of coins gotten out of the methods tested and I got 1.05 coins per slot opened on average. My sim does not factor using kobans to buy keys, because generally I wouldn't consider it worth it. Would take some work to factor in koban spending. So rena's method would be a bit misleading with assigning kobans a keys value if you don't plan on spending kobans on keys. Also it doesn't factor in the chance of getting keys from combativity. So I think there's room for even more improvement in optimizing coin rewards both with and without factoring in koban spending.

rena.thumb.png.a530c9043e2165db53f3525f3330b69f.png

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13 minutes ago, zoopokemon said:

My sim does not factor using kobans to buy keys, because generally I wouldn't consider it worth it

I'd agree, save your kobons so you can actually grab the girls from the events they come from in the first place. Even with a conservative estimation, getting a girl via paying kobons in Sultry Mysteries is comparable in expense to getting one via Mythic Days. 

15 minutes ago, zoopokemon said:

Also it doesn't factor in the chance of getting keys from combativity.

While true, I suspect the effect would be so small as to be practically negligible, not to mention highly inconsistent. Key drops are random, so you may get nothing from 6 combativity, and even with a long-term "on average" outlook it's going to be very few keys and thus not a big impact on your decision to continue or not. At a certain point, when you're doing quick mental math, it's just not worth worrying over tiny effects that will rarely change your decision.

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1 hour ago, zoopokemon said:

So rena's method would be a bit misleading with assigning kobans a keys value if you don't plan on spending kobans on keys.

Yes, that is correct. The expected value I calculated includes the keys bought with the kobans. So it is higher than the actual expected value. That is misleading.

Thanks. I will correct it later.

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Am I thinking too simple? I use a very simple rule to decide whether I continue or not. As there are 4 keys included in each grid, you need maximum 26 keys to open a full grid, meaning 1 coin/key is the minimum ratio.  I generate a new grid as soon as my coin/key ratio is higher than 1, as the expected value of continuing must be lower. So just simple counting and comparing.

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grafik.png.6d70e40ba355c6cf9fab8f4e645fcac4.png

Sadly I lost my count of the keyes this time so no data to droprates or how the keye-coins ration is. I'm fine with the 81 coins from this 1st appearance. When you go for the mythic it should be reachable to get 100+ coins (this time while the event lasts I invested more than 400 combativity) in average.

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Result for this first SM event: 85 S coins

I'm not buying anything for the moment. I'll wait if I see Dolly in the shop (Need 32 Coins for her), and then I think I'll have to decide if I focus on LD girls or Combativity. I still don't think other girls are really worth the coins (At least for OD/KC and other random 3* girls).

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