Jump to content

Sultry Mysteries


FinderKeeper
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, Bobick said:

Am I thinking too simple? I use a very simple rule to decide whether I continue or not. As there are 4 keys included in each grid, you need maximum 26 keys to open a full grid, meaning 1 coin/key is the minimum ratio.  I generate a new grid as soon as my coin/key ratio is higher than 1, as the expected value of continuing must be lower. So just simple counting and comparing.

I would argue that is definitely too simple.  If you get 15-16 S-coins (via the 3-5-7, and maybe the 1) from your first 15 keys, but you get all of the bonus keys, the kisses, the affection items, and gems you don't need, you'd be leavign the followign on the grid:

The 10 S-Coin reward
The 60 Koban reward
Books
Gem colors you need
Combativity

You might only have 10-11 coins left, but those other rewards are very good. You need to decide for yourself where you draw the line.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In my last post, I made two misleading statements about coins per key (from now on called cpk). The first is that cpk per grid is not overall cpk. The second is that the cpk I calculated includes keys bought with kobans.

I decided to calculate the overall cpk without kobans and I found some improvements in the process.

New version released.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Iw_XNx9zRbpY_G51sAp5hhl5XmTw1gUc63oilpFuW3g/edit#gid=0

For example:
A : 20 coins, 15 keys, cpk = 20 / 15 = 1.333
B : 26 coins, 20 keys, cpk = 26 / 20 = 1.300
C : 26 coins, 25 keys, cpk = 26 / 25 = 1.040
D 15 coins, 15 keys, cpk = 15 / 15 = 1.000
You know A is better than B and C is better than D. Then you might think A + C is better than B + D, but actually it is not.
A + C : cpk = (20 + 26) / (15 + 25) = 1.15
B + D cpk = (26 + 15) / (20 + 15) = 1.17
So B + D is better than A + C.

The new version has been improved to select B + D instead of A + C.

Results:

The old version:
Cpk per grid = 1.3869572511822166
Overall cpk = 1.3138794630026072
Overall cpk without spending kobans = 1.2507071940794519
Coins per slot = 1.0747285484230416

The new version:
Cpk per grid = 1.3851232398195958
Overall cpk = 1.3154424288556756
Overall cpk without spending kobans = 1.2522766596936197
Coins per slot = 1.0770705945129673

I apologize for making cpk seem higher than the actual expected value.

----------

6 hours ago, Bobick said:

Am I thinking too simple? I use a very simple rule to decide whether I continue or not. As there are 4 keys included in each grid, you need maximum 26 keys to open a full grid, meaning 1 coin/key is the minimum ratio.  I generate a new grid as soon as my coin/key ratio is higher than 1, as the expected value of continuing must be lower. So just simple counting and comparing.

@Bobick
I tested your method with my sim.

Generate new grid if Coins > Keys used - Keys gained (ignored kobans)
Cpk per grid = 1.3524355905969467
Overall cpk = 1.2972873514192471
Overall cpk without spending kobans = 1.2367408633006014
Coins per slot = 1.0663179441002082

Compared to my method, there is only a 1.24% difference. I think it is simple and not bad.

Edited by renalove
Bobick method
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I used the following set of rules

1. If after 15 keys I have less than 13 coins, continue until I have at least 13 coins, then check table.

2. If after 15 keys I have exactly 13 coins, reset grid if I already found 3 or 4 keys

I think this is very close to optimal and requires very little searching for the right row in the table.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderator

I like this event.  It's a nice side companion to the MD.  Hopefully, it's monthly. 

Can use it to get a CP rebate, since using CP for the MD drops keys, which yields more SC, used to buy 20 CP for 20 SC.  I like that 1:1 conversion rate.  20 CP is worth 216 kos.  I ended up buying 80 CP from the SM shop, worth 864 kos, bringing down the cost of recruiting Heavenly Venus .  8 sets of shop rewards, means up to 160 CP saved, if you have the 160 SC to spend.

Regarding the "dating token" functionality, I don't need the 3 L5s I have available w/ 40+ shards.  Not even LXIX 🟠 whom I want the most, b/c of dual hair colors.  Since, I already have 5 strong physical 🟠 girls maxed to lvl 750 (1 M6 & 4 L5s).  I can get the L5s if they ever show up in LDs.  Also, don't need any of the L3s, besides for maxing passive bonuses, which will get maxed eventually anyway.  If they're cheap, like less than 60 SC, and an element I need, then I'd consider it, b/c I could possibly recruit 2 girls during one event that way.

2022-11-06_14-37-25.png.0c833ee961f56441da97073b65fcfbf7.png

I spent 790 CP during the MD, which dropped 75 keys, at an above average 9.49% drop rate.

Ended up getting 128 SC total, during the SM event.  I wish I kept track of how many keys I actually used.

I intentionally made mistakes like opening an entire grid, and continuing to open boxes until I got a specific reward.  Meaning, I didn't play perfectly, or w/ rules.  I generally wanted the top 3 SC rewards (5, 7, & 10), the 60 kos, and the 3 key reward.  I was happy to gain CP as well, since it helped w/ the MD, but I wouldn't delay refreshing the grid for it.  We'll all probably get better at it later, after figuring out the best strategy, but it'll differ for each player, b/c the rewards have varying values, depending on the situation.  For example, I normally wouldn't buy 200 exhibitionist 🟢 gems for 36 SC, but it was the exact amount I needed, to awaken 68% blessed Jessie 🟢 to lvl 700.  Which boosted my team up to 197k TP.  I preferred that at the time, over recruiting some random useless L3 girl.

Here's how I spent my SC:

1399611985_sultrycoins.png.84b4294fd82eaa07d3da535cbd86eff4.png

These are the 8 sultry girls I saw in the shop (one was an L5, Dve 🟡 for 208 SC):

2039430545_sultrygirls2.png.a6e793c68e487d97bc0ff6004c30ace0.png

I had 49 girls in my SM pool at the time, w/ 3 L5s, so I figured my odds of seeing an L5 in the shop was 6.1%.  Then, after 8 sets of shop rewards, the probability of seeing one of the 3 L5s would be ~39.56%.  It did happen once, but I couldn't afford her anyway for 208 SC, even if I did save all of my 128 SC.

1767962198_dvecropped2022-11-05_11-59-39.png.18b6e628ed2203355fbfbcaadce44b4c.png

This is the data we've collected on the key drop rates from villains:

  • 733 keys
  • 9279 CP
  • 7.9% key drop rate

179846689_keydroprate4.png.228910765ce8c475690539f5ec816900.png

I figure I was lucky w/ my ~9.5% key drop rate, since the avg from ~9.3k CP was closer to 7.9%.  That's like 1 key dropping from every ~12.6 CP.  I'll probably think of it as an 8% drop rate in the future, assuming I'll get ~64 keys from 800 CP during an MD.

785016829_keydroprate5.thumb.png.836cd4c795329241dab7088c13ae51f5.png

Edited by Ravi-Sama
Updated key drop rates.
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

il y a 47 minutes, Ravi-Sama a dit :

I like this event.  It's a nice side companion to the MD.  Hopefully, it's monthly. 

Can use it to get a CP rebate, since using CP for the MD drops keys, which yields more SC, used to buy 20 CP for 20 SC.  I like that 1:1 conversion rate.  20 CP is worth 216 kos.  I ended up buying 80 CP from the SM shop, worth 864 kos, bringing down the cost of recruiting Heavenly Venus .  8 sets of shop rewards, means up to 160 CP saved, if you have the 160 SC to spend.

 

i like this event too .it is like a cash back event .you get rewards for spending CP during MD.

i did not pay attention to the others rewards but you are right it maybe very helpful to spend in other rewards such as CP to reduce the cost of the mythic girl especially if you dont have interesting girls in your SM pool.

i personnally set my goal to clear the L5 girls available for me .i had the opportunity to get an epic girl (jujubee 93 shards) but i did not do it

i have 48 girls in my pool 7 are L5 ( Ryoko 75 shards - Elphiba and alluza 60 shards - Himari and Izumi 50 shards- Treasure Flynn 45 - Donatella 40 shards) + kumiko, bianca from champs; i ll get hem sooner or later  and Dayan which i ll get her this week in leagues. 

Like you i want LXIX but sadly i am 39 shards.xD

also this event opens a lot of possibilities such as :

- if you are short of kobans to get an LD girl or dont want her you can target an amount of shards and finish her in this event.

- In LC if you dont have resources to get the girl you can target 75 shards and finish her later.

in Boss bang , if you are still a beginner and you dont have strong teams you can have a second chance to get the girl with event. the same thing with KC CE and league girls.

- you can clear vilains girls in a low cost manner. tageting for example 50 or 60 shards for a vilain girl and finishing her with this event will save you a lot of CP. (may be i ll do this to clear vilains for future MD).

This event if planned well is really helpful for beginners and middle players and is a bonus for experienced players.

i just hope it will be at least 2 times per month.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think in principle it should not be an event, instead just a feature of the game. That way it doesn't matter if you want to spend lots of CP on OD, LD, MD or during LC, you always get the keys in exchange for villain fights.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One can use game theory and probability to look at what the options are generally after N draws, given that N >= 15, and also for any specific set of prizes still to be won. However, one thing that I'm sure of from this thread so far:

Different players will have different goals and objectives which will change what they are aiming for from this event, and I mean that as much more far-reaching than which color gems they want.

May you keep finding what you're looking for, and some unexpected visual bugs to make you laugh as well.

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderator
4 hours ago, Ravi-Sama said:

I assume it's a visual bug, just like the massive SC counts.

Fingers crossed smiley!

2 hours ago, Zteev said:

Different players will have different goals and objectives which will change what they are aiming for from this event, and I mean that as much more far-reaching than which color gems they want.

That's clear, I agree. In general from the grid, the bulk of the coins and at least the 3-key slot should be at the top of anyone's desired outcomes, but beyond that there's a lot of differences in player approach. And for the shop, it's all over the place depending on one's situation and overall approach.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Il y a 4 heures, Liliat a dit :

I don't think we know for sure, but I'd expect the event to come back every month around MD (2nd~6th each month).

No official (or even unofficial) statement on the frequency of this event but I have the same opinion as you.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/7/2022 at 2:56 AM, DvDivXXX said:

Fingers crossed smiley!

That's clear, I agree. In general from the grid, the bulk of the coins and at least the 3-key slot should be at the top of anyone's desired outcomes, but beyond that there's a lot of differences in player approach. And for the shop, it's all over the place depending on one's situation and overall approach.

I agree with those being the top results, plus the Kobans, and the 1 key as things you want to find. The single key just because it pushes you closer to being able to refresh if you want.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/7/2022 at 11:06 PM, Tom208 said:

Or maybe @Master-17 and @SafiTheOrca just like playing with HTML code 😉

I can't speak for anyone else, in my own case it was a genuine display error. A fellow club member mentioned seeing the same bug after I shared the screenshot. I have a theory on what triggers it to happen, and will test at the next Sultry Mysteries event.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderator
5 minutes ago, SafiTheOrca said:

I can't speak for anyone else, in my own case it was a genuine display error. A fellow club member mentioned seeing the same bug after I shared the screenshot. I have a theory on what triggers it to happen, and will test at the next Sultry Mysteries event.

yup..I had over 3k too ..but when I was "quick I gotta use them" it didn´t work 😛 ...for science ofc..

  • Haha 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderator

I saw it too.  I didn't mention it, b/c I knew it was a visual bug.  Also tried getting Sue w/ it (for science).  FYI, it says you don't have enough SC if you try, so it's not an exploit, just a visual bug.

1068577313_scerrorcropped2022-11-04_23-59-55.thumb.png.f3d4ac568696a28b1a384d6622418176.png

This was my actual SC count.  41, not 41k.

745733779_correctsccropped2022-11-04_23-58-54.thumb.png.18746286b45a2e6a8ca90fcd8255340b.png

I figure something was multiplying my displayed SC total by close to 1k, but not in reality.

Edited by Ravi-Sama
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

pairing this event with OD would make it not as interesting as if it was paird with MD.

in MD players would spend more combativity which makes SM like a bonus or cashback

while with OD , sincerely it is not going to push me to spend more .

and this change is really a game changer for some players .

with MD , some players can make strategies to get girls with this event since they will spend a lot and for sure they will get a lot sultry coins during MD. where as with OD , i personally will try the girl in her original event and not rely on this since it will take more time to get her with SM.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...