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il y a 32 minutes, DvDivXXX a dit :

so there was no advantage to hold onto their final 20 points for that long

For only 1 fight, I fully agree. But for 3 fights or multiple, waiting is a valid strategy to get some unboosted players with partial refresh.

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Congrats to Stoned Jesus for his win this week (and also to Pelinor for his first win, welcome to the club, mate B|, and good luck for all of you doing so many excellent places).

I got a second place without playing specially well, but top 4 is ALWAYS good. No AM booster and not many upgraded blessed girls after monday, so my team wasn't the strongest.

imagen.png.9c167575268b539d5cecf30af483fbea.png

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An astonishing victory.🥂 🍾

marcel had 2 times the best possible teams lvl750 with more than 25k stronger than mine and I won ! So buying blundle gems doesn't make you a good player.

I had decided to use only one AM booster but when I took deboosted marcel, I couldn't resist using a second one to ensure 3 wins.

I am therefore very happy even if the fact of not being able to play the seasons has seriously compromised my first day of LC.

The top 4 isn't a surprise.

102 opponents, no loss,  1,7 AM booster used and 1360 kobans spent.

Screenshot taken à 12h08. Some changes in the top15 are possible.

1748666813_Captureligues..thumb.JPG.c5b67ee8785920032d42d641417b9303.JPG

next week : 19 players lvl500. Many D3 little winners. My hardest opponents should be Rayley and Aris619. I think I can win but I've to use kisses for the seasons.

Peace and games for everyone.

Edited by Troctout
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image.png.4c7e46d309964849059681bf5024af42.png

Attempt #30 in D3

Info: <current league> [<last league stats>] [<personal best>]

Points: 6566 [6582] [6692]

Average: 21.74 [22.16] [22.48]

Victories: 299/306 [292/297] [300/300]

This week I was busy and didn't pay much attention. I felt that many battles I was a bit unlucky this week and often scored less points than predicted. To my surprise I recognized that it could be a possible Top 4 again. I gave it a shot to do it without mythic booster and that was a mistake. One booster should have been enough. At the end I was missing maybe 20 points and it was clear that it's not possible anymore. So I also saved a refill, which would have been necessary to do all fights. 

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On 4/21/2022 at 6:57 PM, DvDivXXX said:

This league I wanted to play it cool and just make sure to be high enough in the post-Shal gap to earn a top 4 spot. The first surprise was that Shal apparently ran out of fucks to give (a trend that only seems to spread further among regular D3 winners of the Old Age as the transition to the New Age is approaching its end, fortunately slash unfortunately).

I've focused my gems/books usage on Mythics, so with barely any 5* legendaries up to snuff I wasn't gonna be competitive in the second set of blessings with the 25% on their rarity plus too many getting double blessed. Adding in that I was travelling during the week, confined to playing entirely by mobile (ugh) for several days and missing loads of snapshots, there was little point in making an effort just to maybe finish 4th. (It looks like I could have, but I'm okay with the almost no-cost top 15.) I did win the week before that, so I haven't quite thrown in the towel yet. :P

Commiserations on the near-miss...the last I'd seen of the live standings on Thursday was with your 2-point lead and I figured it had held. :|


Might as well, I guess - my result for the league ended April 14:

image.png.de505f7c8e9496300b315cb3be96beb1.png


A PSA: Apparently players who get banned from the game now disappear from their league immediately rather than giving the "you can't fight him" error, which is what happened in mine around reset on the Tuesday of that week. Luckily I'd already fought the banned guy (and pretty sure Nonya had as well, they only had two or three people left by that time). My actual average there was 23.79, the script was taking me to have done three battles fewer than I actually did.

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I wont make any waves but I'll finish towards the "top" of my subcategory of 16-30. With the boosters I've used to help with the season as well as the gem spending to unlock level 600 for many girls, I'm doing a little better. Unfortunately low on gems so I will be on a bit of a pause but its nice to have a better fighting chance. I'm excited for it and hope that I'm not jinxing it right now lol

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Off to bed 2 hours before the end, so we'll see if I manage to stay in the top 4. Probably not but a good showing anyway. I'm missing Radka but have the other 4 top 5 girls at level 700, so a near perfect round for me.

My club is all Rank 15, I'm the highest level, and I'm starting to wonder if that 2.5% will actually begin to matter at this point. It's active and I'm the leader, but potentially losing hundreds of Kobans every couple weeks is a weird added stress. :(

Edit: Holy cow, pulled off 4th!

1100410719_Screenshot(133).thumb.png.4bd734e466f67384e5b25fe7afb6b306.png

Edited by Shaftiel
left out a word
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For some reason, it went well. I guess decent blessings really help. 34 Average power on the first half, 32.4 on the second half.

Final score: 5224, 17.58 Average

20 minutes before the end, Top 30 seemed reachable. I just needed to refill for 1 fight and get an 11-points average on my last 15 fights:

top30-20min.thumb.png.ed1fea64cdb2e74adc5c1620b87eb6ba.png

So I did that, spent 13 Kobans on this refill, and went for it. Unfortunately, in the meantime, Xilo also did their fights:

top30-1min.thumb.png.70d25d0cf1e5b7be8fa2046a068f6e96.png

Well, it was worth a try :)

Top 10:

top10-1min.thumb.png.a5b03b08fbd5a1ba73b96ab289c06955.png

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This week in the D3 League I faced a severe challenge. I was short on the Cordy boosters so I dialed back to using one Ginseng & two Cordy as my main booster set. I also faced 40 Charm players and my spreadsheet shows that this is my worst "points per combat" opponent as a Knowhow player. I faced 99 opponents and even with the huge number of Charm players I made it through with zero losses (though my average dropped to 22.58).

image.png.6a7d3630030d3d3a9376ddd29d62c31e.png

In the top 30, we had 15 charm, 10 knowhow and 5 hardcore players. It was a low scoring league overall so my score was good enough to stay in the top four.

Have fun this week everyone. 😃

Edited by Pelinor
spelling correction
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This league I was getting to try out predicting which opponents would be boosted at blessings change and who wouldn't be. I achieved 87.25% accuracy in my prediction. However, I should note that it's still of very limited usefulness due to it only starting to work a day before BC, and reaching peak usefulness just before the BC. Regardless, it's another tool in my toolbelt against the absolute fiercest of opponents.

There's definitely something wrong with recording my simulated scores, but fortunately it happens like 1 time every 100, and I can just copy the simulated scores from other fights from that person. So, I'm expecting the statistics data is intact after those changes.

I underestimated RustyDuck's average (just about the only one I saw as potential trouble), but fortunately I had been putting in more effort than was needed against the supposed average from Rusty, so I ended up winning. And sort of barely at that, so resource usage was well proportioned with how difficult (easy) the league was.


Statistics
My score on Mon 19:09:43 (UTC time): 4678 (100.95% of what my algorithm would expect with completely average luck)
Expected score (my algorithm): 4634
Expected score (HH++ algorithm): 4580.5 (there were a lot of fights where ego-giving domination was used, where HH++ algorithm, I'm expecting, is wrong in its evaluation)

If I had been using the following booster combinations for the duration of the league but with the same fight timing decisions, these would have been my completely average luck scores:
AME+3cor         7365.5
AME+2cor,1gin    7345.6
AME+1cor,2gin    7315.3
AME+2gin,1chlo   7255.3
3 cordy          7220.8
2 cordy, 1 gin   7192.1

Perfect precognition score with average luck and AME+3cor throughout: 7405.74
(24.441 average). The AME+3cor expectation was 99.457% of this.

No statistics regarding fight time choices this time, since those are a bit more elaborate to make.

league-2022-04-28-boosters.png

league-2022-04-28-difficulty.png

league-2022-04-28-graphs.png

league-2022-04-28-leaderboard.jpg

league-2022-04-28-scoregraph.png

Edited by Rarum
The stated perfect precognition score was incorrect, but I managed to fix it. A new feature and all that.
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Not too lucky this week, though I was only aiming for a Top 4 this time, but oh well.

HH League Story 118 - D3 - O Malley Week 2 - Top 4 run vs Mot131 and YourDaddy I nope Top 15.png

------------------
D3 run #87 2022/04/21-28
Boosters used: 3 legendaries all the time, 1.5 AM boosters.
101 players. 100 opponents. 300 fights. wins: 299. losses: 1.
Average: 22.81
Finished: Top 15
Girl Shards: (O'Malley Week 2) +30%
Refills: 3x188kos 185kos 183kos 176kos 171kos 153kos 151kos 126kos
Contenders for Top 4: Mot_123, Harlequin, Erin, who knows?
Maybe: whoever gets lucky past the gap? Maybe ME? (Nope ^^)

I'm not sure who won, I didn't check again after I was kicked from Top 4 near the end. I finished at #5 so the Top 4 hasn't changed, but I wouldn't be surprised if Mot climbed further to #1.

YourDaddy was the wild card in this group. Level 500 who unlocked and fully upgraded their entire team to level 750 and had most of the blessed girls. Stayed at #1 with that score for the past few days. I knew Mot would go for the win as always, but I didn't expect both Erin and Harlequin to also contest top 4. With the extra contender, and my so-so performance (neither Phase had favorable blessings for me) well I ended up a bit short. Better luck next time? (Please! After two #2 and now a #5 give me a break ^^).

Good luck have fun this week, folks. Stay safe!

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My best result to date - highest position, highest average and 2nd top 15 result:

image.thumb.png.32aec1d9d5d0759e078bd45fc9d9089d.png

I was also the lowest level player in the top 30 and I spent 7 Koban that I clearly didn't need to spend to finish off the last few fights. Felt it was better to grab those last 4 than (the unlikely) risk of having a few players overtake me right at the end. As it turns out I finished a LONG way above 16!

Edited by JustVisitingReborn
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image.png.be3e1fc7f5a5f1940d2b73dbbaa27f8f.png

Attempt #31 in D3

Info: <current league> [<last league stats>] [<personal best>]

Points: 6576 [6566] [6692]

Average: 22.14 [21.74] [22.48]

Victories: 291/297 [299/306] [300/300]

I'm not really happy with my result. At the beginning I had some bad results (even 2 strange losses, with a 24 pts victory afterwards). Then during the week it was not clear to me if a Top 4 is possible but I expected to have a chance. Last week I was in the same situation but more busy in general. So this time I decided to use half of a mythic booster and more valuable cordyceps. Well...this was not enough (but close) and a mistake. My goal at the moment is to get as most kobans from league as possible and therefore I invest nothing to earn those ~2900 kobans with a cheap top 15. Because I was close to a Top 4 the last times I had some hopes that it is enough with a little higher investment (to earn even more 😄). This was oviously not the case. So I have to decide the next weeks if I want do invest more or take a cheap top 15. I'm not experienced as others here to have a good prediction on the players who are contenders for the big prizes.

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 Another week in D3, started at level 473, finished at level 474. 

No screenshot this week, I was busy and completely forgot to do it. 🥴

Final rank: 4th (score: 6809 points; average: 22.7 points)

Boosters used : 18 legendaries (1 cordycep / 2 gingseng 6 times). 0 mythic booster.

101 players -> 100 opponents -> 300 possible fights -> 300 fights performed -> 300 wins and no loss

Get a top 4 without using any mythic booster is always a pleasure 😊

Take care

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Another top 4. I was very busy this week and I had to use kisses for seasons. So it was clear for me it will be hard to win against rayley (congratulaitons to him).

I used 1,7 AM booster but only 1 refill so I spent only 1108 kobans and I faought more than 10 boosted opponents. I was very unlucky this week.

Other players didn't played hard.

99 opponents, no loss but a very weak average of 23,24 (the worse since months).

Screenshot taken at 12h05 GMT+2 but only the 4th place may have changed

1142794055_ligueD3clssmnt.jpg.a02b61465a9b33f608d23e2789bf76ff.jpg

Next week : 15 lvl500 but only one D3 little winner !  I've some more time to rise my team to lvl750 :)

Peace and games to everyone !

Edited by Troctout
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I had my best week ever last week. Only 2 losses, both to Tatouf Metouf, who I figured was the likely winner, but I don't have a late snapshot, as I needed to go to bed early.

I decided to take a shot at top 4, and ended up finishing 3rd! Really happy I could do that, and I have to thank some of my club mates for some strategy tips.

Used 2 All Mastery boosters, one of which I likely didn't need due to managing to find lots of power players unboosted and playing a bit more strategically. I did have to refill attacks twice, due to time constraints, but at least did so strategically. As usual I wasn't boosted the whole time, but did use 3 boosters when boosted, at least 1 being a Cordyceps.

It was more effort, and I won't likely do that every week, as I have a number of weeks, where I'm forced to refill to use all my attacks.

 

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8 hours ago, Troctout said:

Next week : 15 lvl500 but only one D3 little winner !

The last 3 weeks I've had 21, 21 and now 22 lvl500s. 12 months from now D3 is going to be almost exclusively 500s!! They're certainly dominating the top 15 now with only 7 player's lower than 500 last week and only 5 the week before! There are at least two players in my bracket that will reach 500 this week and another four that should hit 500 by the end of May.

And the interesting thing is that D3 may end up being the least impacted in the long run. Being 500 doesn't make a player good. Just a bit harder to beat. A smart 400 can still get some decent scores against a weak 500. Level isn't insurmountable. Talking from my own experience though, it's been competing against the better players that's forced me to improve my strategy. That didn't really happen until D3. I was still performing way above my level average in D2 and below, but level made a lot more of a difference (I wasn't nearly so focused on catching players unboosted). When D2 starts choking up with mediocre 500s (more and more of whom will have high girl levels too) potentially good players are either going to have to learn earlier how to play better, or they're going to find the level gap very difficult to overcome.

This in itself creates a new barrier for new players. In my experience, accessing the higher leagues and the larger Koban rewards they offer was a substantive part of any success I've had. If it becomes tougher for newer (potentially) good player to access the higher divisions, they won't be able to access those Koban rewards. Without those Mythic girls are likely out of reach full stop. And no Mythic girls would make it very tough to compete. A bit of a feedback loop.

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39 minutes ago, JustVisitingReborn said:

Level isn't insurmountable.

Yeah I very much disagree with that. For reference, I am always in the top10-15 girl-power wise. I am on the cusp of unlocking 651+, which will make me even top5. However I am always the last or second to last player level wise, I havent hit level 400 yet and I struggle hard to stay in the top45 even with 10-12 kordy boosters.

so the level still very much plays a significant role, at least on the main server.

.
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il y a 36 minutes, 430i a dit :

so the level still very much plays a significant role, at least on the main server.

Sure, level is important; but so is gameplay. An active level 500 player will reach Top 4, but a less active lvl 500 player can largely be beaten by an active level 420 player (And maybe even a lvl 400 player, with decent blessings and awakenings).

A Player lvl 500 with a 110k "Total power" can be pretty weak and easy to beat. Some level 500 players don't have a full mythic baseline team, and can get average power lower than 28.5, even with blessed girls.

But of course, if we're talking about the current strongest players in the game, that's a whole different story. Lvl 700/750 blessed teams with 7+ Mythics and optimal boosters are impossible to beat for lower level players.

il y a une heure, JustVisitingReborn a dit :

The last 3 weeks I've had 21, 21 and now 22 lvl500s. 12 months from now D3 is going to be almost exclusively 500s!!

I've noticed that as well, more and more lvl 500. It makes a lot of sense, considering the huge PXP boost from PoV. This also means that new players can catch up more quickly (We get more than 2x the XP compared to 3 years ago, so it should "only" take a couple of years to reach lvl 500 from 0 nowadays).

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2 hours ago, 430i said:

Yeah I very much disagree with that. For reference, I am always in the top10-15 girl-power wise. I am on the cusp of unlocking 651+, which will make me even top5. However I am always the last or second to last player level wise, I havent hit level 400 yet and I struggle hard to stay in the top45 even with 10-12 kordy boosters.

so the level still very much plays a significant role, at least on the main server.

.

You've taken the comment in question out of context.
 

3 hours ago, JustVisitingReborn said:

A smart 400 can still get some decent scores against a weak 500. Level isn't insurmountable.

There are plenty of terrible level 500 players. Otherwise I wouldn't be surviving in D3. My point was not that 'you can always overcome the level gap regardless of who you are playing'. My point was that by playing smart a level 400 player can still pick-off wins against poor level 500 players. And while more players are hitting level 500 faster, that doesn't make those players any 'better' strategically.
 

Last week started with 21 level 500s in my bracket. Only 7 of them finished in the top 15. From my screenshot I finished above 1 of those. That means that I - at level 421 - beat 15 level 500s last week. Again from the screenshot, there are another 2 that only just beat me (by less than 100 points). The conclusion would be that the majority of the players that have reached level 500 aren't playing particularly effective strategies and in these cases the level gap is not insurmountable.
 

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Yeah sure, there are level 500 NPC players, but from my experience the majority of them have a very decent line-up and are no slouches. I ran a couple of queries for my past few leagues:

2022.03.10 - 2022.03.17: 6/10 in the top15, 7/10 in the top45
2022.03.17 - 2022.03.24: 5/9 in the top15, 8/9 in the top45
2022.03.24 - 2022.03.31: 7/10 in the top15, 10/10 in the top45
2022.03.31 - 2022.04.07: 7/8 in the top15, 8/8 in the top45
2022.04.07 - 2022.04.14: 5/11 in the top15, 9/11 in the top45
2022.04.14 - 2022.04.21: 2/8 in top15, 6/8 in the top45
2022.04.21 - 2022.04.28: 11/20 in top15, 20/20 in the top45
 

I dont have that many samples (I am sure Rarum has more extensive stats than me), and the variance is somewhat large, but the trend is clearly there: a top45 is essentially a given for a level500 players and it does not take too much effort to place in the top15 - 50% to 70% of all level 500 players are in there. And mind you, this takes only the maxxed out players and not all 499, 498 etc players (which for all intends and purposes can be considered level 500 as well).

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6 hours ago, 430i said:

(I am sure Rarum has more extensive stats than me)

Fine, fine. You've successfully dragged me into this exchange, too. These two graphs show quite a few league brackets from just this month and how the outcome depended on the player level. They both have the same data, but since I'm no data scientist, I'm giving you the two versions with different trend lines. The first one uses a second-degree polynomial trend line, while the second one uses a logarithmic one. How these look a fair bit different reminds me of the proverb: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

d3-outcome-player-level-polynomial.thumb.png.8acb9d9c1e0002d1158c32401451193e.pngd3-outcome-player-level-logarithmic.thumb.png.3f9ea83b1c062cacd7012bbfeaeed4ab.png

 

Edited by Rarum
A slight mistake in the graphs was fixed; not all ranges started from row 1, but row 2; now they have a uniform starting point.
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