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jelom
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Same as before, will edit until the end of the event:

 

Event: Easter Feast:

Gruntt: 330 hits

Shards: 102 (6x1, 4x2, 5x3, 7x4, 3x5, 5x6)

My drop rate for Gruntt: 9,1% (3,4 shards average)

Best 20: 4 drops/7 shards (2x1, 1x2, 1x3) and 3 drops/15 shards (1x3, 2x6)

Donatien: 160 hits

Shards: 39 (5x1, 5x2, 2x3, 2x4, 2x5)

My drop rate for Donatien: 10% (2,4 shards average)

Best 20: 3 drops/14 shards (1x4, 2x5)

 

Eh, not the best of starts, but we're on Day 1 after all.

Okay, if this messed up drop rate persists until tomorrow, i'm making a bug report post. <.<

Edit: Urgghh... 112 attacks and 4 shard drops so far, though the 1x4 and 1x6 were in the last batch of 16. Going to have at it for another day to see if it's been 'fixed', but seriously... I have literally gotten a better mileage of shards and attacks in the Legendary Event, and that was taking into account the lower number of shards dropped :/

Edit 2: Looks like the drop rate's back to normal for me. Still a bad start, but meh...

Edited by Makinen
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That's so weird, the differences are too big between players, it cannot be normal RNG but something is wrong on a deeper level.

First day with Gruntt - 63 fights - 33 shards - 10 drops ranging from 2 to 5 shards.
That means 16% of the fights had shard drops.
Longest streak without shards - 17 fights. Usually 4-7 fights in-between shards.

Edited by jaybee
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My results for the current event until now (I will be editing to update)

Easter Feast Event

Donatien, 193 battles, 26 shard drops, 100 shards for Carine . :D

Gruntt, 98 battles, 16 shard drops, 66 shards for Alex.

Edit: One girl done and 2/3 of the other in 5 days!

Edited by jelom
luck?
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Day 2 with Gruntt showed why I think there is something wrong with the way RNG is programmed.

47 fights, 1 shard drop (5 shards) - 38 shards total
16% of fights had a shard drop on Day 1, 2% of fights on Day 2. Day 1 streak of 17 fights without shards was replaced with a streak of 42 fights with no shards.

This is too big a swing, especially on the same account and for the same girl, so you cannot look for the reason that player levels, existing girl numbers, event/girl type and a multitude of other factors are different, so you cannot really compare.
When everyone was waiting for that one magical girl drop, devs could get away with calling it an "RNG swing" to explain why someone could get a girl in 30 tries while somebody else needed 300 fights.

But the more frequent shard drops now help to show that it is sloppy programming. Whatever factors are included in the RNG code are working against themselves in certain situations and not allowing people to get ahead.

The factors influencing the RNG code should be fixed to stop many players from quitting. Or if the devs prefer to say there are no factors and it is down to luck - those factors should be added to the code to prevent too much bad luck.

To sum up: yes, the RNG code has been badly programmed, as many people have suspected and reported, and should be fixed/improved.

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17 hours ago, jaybee said:

But the more frequent shard drops now help to show that it is sloppy programming. Whatever factors are included in the RNG code are working against themselves in certain situations and not allowing people to get ahead.

"In certain situations"?

On 3/1/2019 at 5:55 PM, jaybee said:

That's so weird, the differences are too big between players, it cannot be normal RNG but something is wrong on a deeper level.

What's wrong on a deeper level is your (mis)understanding of what a series of randomly generated numbers looks like. Streaks of 30 or even 40 misses are perfectly normal and not going to be particularly rare with the ~10% drop rate that has been set for shards. In turn, you're also going to get some other shard drops after just one or two battles. The whole point of switching from single drops to the shard model is that you're going to get dozens of additional opportunities to make up for the inevitable strings of bad luck, rather than having to endure one bad luck streak that constitutes the entire event for you.

It appears that you're looking for some Lake Wobegon RNG implementation where everybody has above-average luck at all times.

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Yeah, my comment on making a bug report if the shards didn't start dropping was more based on running 3 shard drops on 100 or so attacks. I can understand poor streaks, but Legendary Days was fairly consistent in the number of shard drops, and so far Gruntt has been fairly consistent in the number of shards he DIDN'T drop for me.

And that's the issue... consistency. I know that, as a free player, i'm not exactly datamining the everliving crap out of this game, but if Edwarda on Legendary Days gave me a consistent 10-15% shard drop rate chance, and Gruntt on Easter Feast a consistent drop rate chance of about 3-5%, then i'm going to ask questions.

By the way, my bug report post would boil down to asking the Devs to double check the drop chance percentage, not something along the lines of "I made x attacks so far, so you guys owe me y shards", so no worries there :P 

That said, even on a 10% drop rate the odds of nothing dropping 40 attacks in a row would be around 1,5%. On a 15% drop chance, 0,15%. It's possible in both cases, but keep in mind the shard system was implemented specifically to AVOID people spending hundreds of kobans to get a girl and coming up with nothing. And if people are making 40+ attacks and not getting any shards either, then at its core, the system isn't working properly. That is what i'm trying to say here.

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All of the evidence you are citing is still in agreement with a 10% drop rate. The key fact to remember is that you should NOT be expecting consitency. RNG is random. Random is inconsistent. Assuming the drop rate is 10%, then if you do 100 battles, there is a .5% chance that only 3 shards will drop (Anyone who wants to know how I calculated this, look up binomial distributions). Now consider how many players are playing this game, and how many battles are done over since the system has been in place. For every 1000 players who do 100 battles, on average, 5 of them should have the bad luck that you had. I am sorry that you had bad luck, and it is very bad luck. But it is not unreasonably bad luck.

Same can be said about the 40 no drop streaks. If there is a 1.5% chance of this happening everytime 40 battles are done, then it is going to happen quit a bit. But the good news is that so will having multiple drops in a row. The main point is that it does actually reduce the number of cases of bad luck, but it cannot remove them entirely. The only way to remove the bad luck cases entirely is to remove the randomness entirely. But many players have complained that the reduction of the randomness makes the game boring, so the devs aren't going to do that.

Edited by ObviouslyFake
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Just for reference, I'm running at slightly below-average luck overall in this event so far, and with a rather ridiculous-looking distribution of results: I've had 7 drops in 7 battles each or fewer (including twice in 1 battle), and 4 drops requiring 20+ battles each, with another 18-battle no-drop streak going right now. Absolutely nothing in between, a real feast-or-famine run of outcomes. But that's the thing - lots of good luck, lots of bad luck, it still all evens (mostly) out. People really need to stop obsessing over how long one particular drop takes. Your success in getting girls isn't gonna be defined by an occasional 30+ or even 40+ streak, and indeed asking for "more consistency" simply misses the point of the new system completely.

Edited by _shal_
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Third day with Gruntt.

40 battles - 8 drops (32 shards) - 72 total.
20% of battles had shard drops (compared to 16% on Day 1 and 2% on Day 2). On the average shards dropped every 3-5 battles (similar to day 1). Second-day streak of no shards (42 fights) continued until 52 fights, then it settled into the comfortably consistent drop rate, identical to day 1.

In computer games RNG in seldom random. It is not based on "luck", it is a mathematical formula consisting of a number of variables. You change one number and the "luck" changes. I have been involved with computer games where players are trying various methods to generate favourable results for supposedly randomly generating quests and their results, unaware that a four-month list with exact quest appearances and their results is generated upon account creation. Yes, it is random, but whatever tricks the players are trying to do to create quest appearances or their results is futile - everything has been pre-determined to the exact second.

Similarly in this game there are a multitude of factors determining RNG generation. Of course it's not generated months ahead but each battle is not a surprise random event. The game gauges your progress and determines your RNG (or luck) formula in certain batches and for some players it is possible to get stuck in a bad batch.

We know from this game that when an error happens, it is very difficult to fix ("yeah, sorry, your statistics is wrong but the game will keep updating and checking the results and in a few weeks it will be right again, but going and fixing it immediately by devs may cause many more problems," players are told.) Fortunately with battles the periods are not that long but players can get a repeated bad performance command.

If the devs are unable to fix that, they should expand the RNG formula to force some drops for players who have got stuck in those bad performance strings.

 

When you have 150 battles and during 100 of those you get results on average every 5-6 battles and then suddenly get a 50-battle streak of zero results in the middle, it is not a normal statistical behaviour, it is a sign of game error, for whatever reasons.

And if you have two players who supposedly run the game on identical data, then 150 battles is big enough to say that if one of the players gets results in 3% of the cases and another in 13% of the cases, then their base data is not equal and identical.

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Jaybee is correct.

Fake, i'm not expecting consistency as in 'every 8th attack should get me something', but when one event gives me 20 individual shard drops in 158 battles over the course of several days, and the other's tracking 7 individual shard drops in 141 battles, something is wrong. Randomly wrong. I get that a pool of, say, 10 or 20 attacks is too little to base any sort of conclusion on, but 150+ attacks is a fairly decent chunk, and my consistent drop chance of 5% over the past couple of days is almost a third of what it was in the previous event. Sure, i get more shards per drop, but compared to shards/attacks i'm still 25 to 40 behind even with x4 and x6 drops included. And there is no reason an Uncommon girl should be twice as hard to get as a Legendary, let's be honest here.

Again, i state that when a system specifically implemented to mitigate 'bad RNG luck' is susceptible to that same bad luck, then something isn't working the way it's supposed to.

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Aaaaaaaaaaaaand here we have another perfect example of a simple data compilation thread ruined by people commenting and rebating others comments with hundreds of words.

Seriously boys, don't you have dozens of threads yet opened to explain in detail your good or bad opinion about the shard system?

I was asking only for numbers. One line of numbers and one or at most two lines of comments about that same numbers.

 

 

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Gruntt and Alex.

Day 1: 63 fights - 10 drops (33 shards, 16% drop rate) - 33 shards total
Day 2: 47 fights - 1 drop (5 shards, 2% drop rate) - 38 total
Day 3: 40 fights - 8 drops (34 shards, 20% drop rate) - 72 shards total
Day 4: 55 fights - 3 drops (5 shards, 5% drop rate) - 77 total
Day 5: 37 fights - 3 drops (11 shards, 8% drop rate) - 88 total
Day 6: 54 fights - 4 drops (8 shards, 7% drop rate) - 96 total
Day 7: 19 fights - 2 drops (9 shards, 10% drop rate) - 105 total
TOTAL: 315 fights - 31 drops - 9.8% drop rate
Two long 40+ fight streaks with no shards.
My worst 12-day event to date, previous worst was fighting 4 days until drop.

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I leveled Roko Sensei from his starting level (which is 130 if i remember correctly) all the way to 290 and with 7 battles per level this means that i did 1120 battles in total.

From all those battles i received 70-75 shards on each of his 3 girls. Yeah, 75% on each girl is quite a good percentage but when you compare it with Karole and the old system it's not because i fought Karole with the old system and i received all 3 of her girls (never fought her again after that) and she is just 233lvl!!!!

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Haven't really tracked the amount of battles it takes me to get boss girls, but in 14 day events, under the old system it would take approximately 6 days of constant hitting to usually get an Event Girl. I know this because i managed to get both fairly consistently, and while there was an outlier every once in a while 5 or 6 days or so was a pretty reliable estimate to, by then, have the girl i was hitting for.

It was one of the reasons i was looking forward to the first 14-day event with the shard system. Sure, i need to make a new average but that's going to take a few months since i'd need several events to come up with something consistent. But that's all part of the game i guess...

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Easter Feast Event

Donatien, 193 battles, 26 shard drops, 100 shards for Carine .

Gruntt, 187 battles, 27 shard drops, 102 shards for Alex.

Event finished in 7 days 😎. I think I have been a bit on the lucky side, I didn' have any long bad streak, but even with that would have been doable in 12 days.

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Conversely, I'm currently on course for needing ~630 battles with average luck from here on. 63 shards in 240 Alex battles and 47 in 130 on Carine. And my weird drop streak continues - 20 drops in 8 or fewer battles, 11 in 20+. No drops at all have taken between 9 and 19 battles.

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2 hours ago, _shal_ said:

Conversely, I'm currently on course for needing ~630 battles with average luck from here on. 63 shards in 240 Alex battles and 47 in 130 on Carine. And my weird drop streak continues - 20 drops in 8 or fewer battles, 11 in 20+. No drops at all have taken between 9 and 19 battles.

Well that seems slightly below the average guesstimate of ~286 per girl (572 total), but what can ya do. Maybe your luck will improve by the end haha.

My results: Easter Feast Event

Carine - 62 attacks, 100 Jackpot, 139 total shards. (39 shards on 8 or 9 shard attacks through 35 attacks, then 26 attacks of nothing before getting the 100 jackpot).

Alex - 305 attacks, 101 total shards (See Image below for detailed record/breakdown).

General thoughts: I wasn't actually planning on recording data this go around, because I'd already done it for previous events and sometimes on multiple accounts. I have a pretty solid understanding from testing that the average shard drop rate is roughly 10% (9-15% give or take). Having this number allows you to calculate 'average' expected attacks guesstimates of girl acquisition for specific events. Legendary Event - ~500 (per girl), Epic Event - ~333, Classic Events ~286, Revival Event ~154. I may elaborate on this more in a future post, but the math is not that complicated lol.

Anyway, after I got the 100 jackpot on Carine I changed my mind about not really recording data and started taking detailed notes for the second girl, Alex. All I know is I encountered my worst string of luck ever during her battles, an 0/56 streak and had a couple smaller streaks like 28, 19. Despite that I still had a 10.5% shard drop rate, the issue was the average shard amount was 3.156, as opposed to the assumed average of 3.5. Not a big deal, but I did overshoot my guesstimate by 19 attacks. I was on a pretty good pace up until that 0/56 started at attack 203. 

I'll be posting some of my Fabienne detailed results in this thread as well. I would post some of my older/other results, but my method of recording wasn't the cleanest. However I can show compiled numbers.

gruntt alex results.png

Edited by pitythefool
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Donatien and Carine

Day 1: 31 fights - 4 drops (16 shards, 13% drop rate) - 16 shards total
Day 2: 43 fights - 2 drops (6 shards, 4.5% drop rate) - 22 shards total
Day 3: 49 fights - 5 drops (16 shards, 10% drop rate) - 38 shards total
Day 4: 47 fights - 5 drops (23 shards, 10.5% drop rate) - 61 total
Day 5: 51 fights - 7 drops (21 shards, 13.7% drop rate) - 82 total
Day 6: 18 fights - 4 drops (19 shards, 22% drop rate) - 101 total
TOTAL: 239 fights - 27 drops (11.3% drop rate)

TOTAL EVENT: 554 fights - 58 drops - 10.5% drop chance
TOTAL revival+event: 787 boss fights without a 100 shard drop.

General notes:
1. Regarding theories that shards become harder to drop as you approach 100, and drop in smaller numbers. No evidence of that. I had two days when 6 shards dropped several times. First was Day 6 with Alex (6 shards dropped when I had 99), followed by a 6 shard drop as I started with Carine. 6 shards dropped three times on the final day with Carine - at 82, 89 and 95 shards. I believe there is enough evidence from a number of players that Kinkoid has told the truth - whatever drops in the range of 1-3, 1-6 or 1-12 shards is completely random, there is no evil intelligence adjusting the numbers.
2. Regarding theories that epic girls are harder to get than rare. No - 239 fights for epic Carine, 315 for rare Alex. Further proof that rarity has no influence on the drop rate.

3. Looking at shard drops, there was one rule. With the exception of the final day that was cut short - days 1-11 each had a streak of at least 20 consecutive fights with no drops. The streak could be longer - 25 fights, 40, 50. But there was 100% guarantee that at some point every single day there would be a minimum of 20 consecutive fights with no drops.

Conclusion: what cannot be influenced is the randomness of shards in a drop. This can add 1-2 days to your fight time for one girl. If in the final day, I had not received 3x6 shards but 3x1 shards instead, I would not have collected 100 shards for Carine and would not have got two girls from this event.
What needs investigation is the frequency of shard drops. Spending kobans to buy fights or buy 10x fights - does it have an influence? How should fights be spread out - 3-5 at a time, 10-15-20 at a time? jelom's less than 200 fights for an event girl was totally and completely impossible for me and the reason was in my daily 20-50 no-drop streaks that jelom did not experience.

My fight style: generally 3-10 fights at a time. I generally stopped for a few hours after receiving a drop.

Edited by jaybee
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On 3/1/2019 at 5:02 PM, Makinen said:

Same as before, will edit until the end of the event:

 

Event: Easter Feast:

Gruntt: 330 hits

Shards: 102 (6x1, 4x2, 5x3, 7x4, 3x5, 5x6)

My drop rate for Gruntt: 9,1% (3,4 shards average)

Best 20: 4 drops/7 shards (2x1, 1x2, 1x3) and 3 drops/15 shards (1x3, 2x6)

Donatien: 161 hits

Shards: 39 (5x1, 5x2, 2x3, 2x4, 2x5)

My drop rate for Donatien: 9,9% (2,4 shards average)

Best 20: 3 drops/14 shards (1x4, 2x5)

Okay, these are my final stats. I'm off to get some sleep.

Overall... compared to the Legendary Days event (already had the Revival girls) the drop rate took a 3-4% nosedive for me, and i didn't get a girl directly, which leads me to suspect that the chance for a 'full' x100 drop has actually been significantly reduced.

Both Gruntt and Donatien have had a 40-50 hit 'drought' during the event, then Donatien went and gave me 14 shards in 20 attacks right after it (i was on 20 shards in 120 or so attacks by then) which pulled his percentages up. Overall though, i found the drop rate to be... fairly disappointing.

Next 12-Day event i'll start tracking the drops i get per day, got the idea for doing that halfway into this one and by then it was already too late to do it. Oh well.

Edited by Makinen
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Alex

Drop#  Battles  BTotal  Shards  STotal
  1        6        6      2       2
  2       20       26      5       7
  3       27       53      6      13
  4        1       54      3      16
  5       30       84      5      21
  6        2       86      3      24
  7        6       92      2      26
  8        2       94      4      30
  9        7      101      1      31
 10       20      121      6      37
 11        1      122      5      42
 12       24      146      2      44
 13       22      168      2      46
 14        8      176      1      47
 15       33      209      6      53
 16        7      216      5      58
 17        5      221      5      63
 18       35      256      6      69
 19        2      258      2      71
 20       22      280      1      72
 21        1      281      2      74
 22        5      286      4      78
 23        8      294      5      83
 24        9      303      2      85
 25        1      304      6      91
 26        3      307      6      97
 27        6      313      1      98
 28       15      328      5     103
Averages  11.7             3.7

Carine

Drop#  Battles  BTotal  Shards  STotal
  1        1        1      1       1
  2        2        3      6       7
  3        1        4      2       9
  4        3        7      2      11
  5        4       11      1      12
  6       24       35      6      18
  7        4       39      6      24
  8        5       44      4      28
  9        7       51      5      33
 10        1       52      3      36
 11       27       79      1      37
 12        8       87      6      43
 13       38      125      4      47
 14       12      137      5      52
 15       27      164      6      58
 16        7      171      3      61
 17        6      177      6      67
 18        4      181      1      68
 19       44      225      2      70
 20       15      240      3      73
 21        9      249      1      74
 22        4      253      6      80
 23        8      261      6      86
 24        1      262      1      87
 25        4      266      2      89
 26        9      275      4      93
 27        6      281      2      95
 28        9      290      2      97
 29        4      294      3     100
Averages  10.1             3.4

1-9 battles: 40 drops
10-19 battles: 3 drops
20-29 battles: 9 drops
30+ battles: 5 drops

For the longest time I was on course to need 350+ battles for Alex and 320+ for Carine, fortunately both girls' runs ended with a relatively lucky home stretch to bring down the numbers a bit. Still below average overall on each girl, and obviously also for the event as a whole. 2 refills needed to completion.

That near-complete lack of moderately unlucky shard drops was just weird. Either very quick drops (including 8x on the first battle!) or veeeeery long droughts.

Edited by _shal_
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with the new event and after fighting Karole for some days, is time to post the partial results so far.

Karole, 978 battles, 65 shard drops (37 Rin, 28 Toshiko), 115 shards (65 for Rin and 50 for Toshiko).

so averages are: 6.65% drops/battle, 1.8 shards/drop, 0.12 shards/battle.

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You know the drill...

 

Event: Spring Break:

Ninja Spy:

Day 1: 34 hits (Virginia)

Shards: 38 (1x2, 1x8, 1x11, 1x12)

Day 2: 47 hits (Virginia), 81 total

Shards: 37 (1x3, 2x4, 2x5, 1x6, 1x10), 75 total

Day 3: 22 hits (Virginia), 103 total

Shards: 100 (1x100), 175 total o.Oa

75 legendary flowers -> 9,750 affection

My drop rate for Ninja Spy:
Day 1: 11,8% (9,5 shards average)
Day 2: 14,9% (5,3 shards average)
Day 3: 4,5% (100 shards average) -- Skewed number due to x100 drop
Total: 11,65% (14,6 shards average, or 6,8 shards without counting the x100)

-= Secondary statistic: First direct Girl drop since implementation of the Shards system (752nd hit) =-

Dark Lord: 30 hits (Spring Lola)

Shards: 20 (1x4, 1x6, 1x10)

Day 4: 45 hits (Spring Lola), 75 total

Shards: 12 (3x1, 1x3, 1x6), 32 total

Day 5: 47 hits (Spring Lola), 122 total

Shards: 18 (1x2, 1x6, 1x10), 50 total

My drop rate for Dark Lord:
Day 3: 10% (6,7 shards average)
Day 4: 11,1% (2,4 shards average)
Day 5: 6,4% (6 shards average)
Total: 11,09% (4,5 shards average)

Best 20: 3 drops/22 shards (1x2, 1x8, 1x12)

Biggest drought: 25 hits.

Edited by Makinen
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