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jelom
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Spring Break Event Revival

Ninja Spy, 125 battles, 15 shard drops, 100 shards for Virginia. 

I have two days and 9 hours (114 battles) to get Spring Lola from Dark Lord. I will probably need some refills to get her.

I will update at the end of the event.

edit:Dark Lord, 109 battles, 16 shard drops, 109 shards for Spring Lola. I needed 1 refill in the last hours before going to bed. I was at 99 and got 10 shards.

Edited by jelom
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My Virginia numbers were quite average (I'll post the details later), but my start into Spring Lola has been very weird - 10 drops in only 45 battles, none having taken longer than 9 battles, but also with rather low actual shard numbers, namely just 49 total (some 25% below the expected 6.5 average) and nothing higher than 8.

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On 3/14/2019 at 8:20 PM, Makinen said:

You know the drill...

 

Event: Spring Break:

Ninja Spy:

Day 1: 34 hits (Virginia)

Shards: 38 (1x2, 1x8, 1x11, 1x12)

Day 2: 47 hits (Virginia), 81 total

Shards: 37 (1x3, 2x4, 2x5, 1x6, 1x10), 75 total

Day 3: 22 hits (Virginia), 103 total

Shards: 100 (1x100), 175 total o.Oa

75 legendary flowers -> 9,750 affection

My drop rate for Ninja Spy:
Day 1: 11,8% (9,5 shards average)
Day 2: 14,9% (5,3 shards average)
Day 3: 4,5% (100 shards average) -- Skewed number due to x100 drop
Total: 11,65% (14,6 shards average, or 6,8 shards without counting the x100)

-= Secondary statistic: First direct Girl drop since implementation of the Shards system (752nd hit) =-

Dark Lord: 30 hits (Spring Lola)

Shards: 20 (1x4, 1x6, 1x10)

Day 4: 45 hits (Spring Lola), 75 total

Shards: 12 (3x1, 1x3, 1x6), 32 total

Day 5: 51 hits (Spring Lola), 126 total

Shards: 18 (1x2, 1x6, 1x10), 50 total

My drop rate for Dark Lord:
Day 3: 10% (6,7 shards average)
Day 4: 11,1% (2,4 shards average)
Day 5: 5,9% (6 shards average)
Total: 8,7% (4,5 shards average)

Best 20: 3 drops/22 shards (1x2, 1x8, 1x12)

Biggest drought: 25 hits.

And i'm off to get some sleep.

Bigger quote this time, but i went detailed on the info i've managed to gather. Overall impression was that Ninja Spy was definitely the more fun to get, shards came in hard and fast, no real droughts and in good drop amounts too. In comparison, Dark Lord felt much more stingy (less than half the shards per hit ratio) despite having the same apparent drop tables for shards, though that could be related to Spring Lola's rarity (Legendary) compared to Virginia's (Epic). Day 5 was a complete train wreck by anyone's standards.

But that's my two cents, as usual. :)

Edited by Makinen
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Finished the revival in free combativity.

Virginia

Drop#  Battles  BTotal  Shards  STotal
  1        5        5     10      10
  2        5       10      8      18
  3        6       16      1      19
  4       17       33      8      27
  5        2       35      1      28
  6        5       40      6      34
  7        1       41      2      36
  8        5       46      2      38
  9       25       71      7      45
 10       24       95      7      52
 11       26      121      5      57
 12        4      125      6      63
 13        4      129      8      71
 14        4      133     11      82
 15        7      140      6      88
 16        2      142      5      93
 17        6      148     11     104
Averages   8.7             6.1

Spring Lola

Drop#  Battles  BTotal  Shards  STotal
  1        5        5      4       4
  2        9       14      8      12
  3        1       15      6      18
  4        6       21      1      19
  5        1       22      4      23
  6        9       31      6      29
  7        6       37      2      31
  8        2       39      8      39
  9        5       44      2      41
 10        1       45      8      49
 11        1       46      6      55
 12       16       62      2      57
 13        6       68     11      68
 14        2       70      5      73
 15       10       80     10      83
 16        6       86      1      84
 17       16      102      6      90
 18        2      104     12     102
Averages   5.8             5.7

Somewhat below average luck on the shard drop numbers, but the drop events themselves came in at a very lucky rate, especially on Lola.

Edited by _shal_
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Event: Epic Days:

Dark Lord:

Day 1: 47 hits (Kyoto)

Shards: 10 (1x1, 3x3)

Day 2: 25 hits (Kyoto), 72 total

Shards: 100 (1x100), 110 total

Okay, that was weird. Drops have been pretty craptastic the past two days, then out of nowhere a x100. Oh well.

-= Secondary statistic: Second direct Girl drop since implementation of the Shards system (198th hit) =-

Ninja Spy: 18 hits (Windia)

Shards: 6 (1x2, 1x4)

Day 3: 45 hits (Windia), 63 total

Shards: 9 (1x4, 1x5), 15 total

Day 4: 30 hits (Windia), 93 total

Shards: 4 (1x1, 1x3), 19 total

Biggest drought: 39 hits.

Edited by Makinen
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Epic days 4

*Fights(Shards*) - Number of shard drops(Average shard value)

Event, Epic days 4, Donatien (Barell): 321(102*) - 31(3.3)
Event, Epic days 4, Dark Lord (Kyoto): 267(100*) - 34(2.94)
Event, Epic days 4, Ninja spy (Windia): 324(103*) - 36(2.86)
Event, Epic days 4, Gruntt (Evelyn): 306(100*) - 31(3.22)
Event, Epic days 4, Edwarda (Trinket): 10(3*)+8(1*)+36(2*)+1(100*) = 55(106*)

For the four normal drops:

Average number of fights before each shard drop: 9.46
Average dropped shard value: 3.08

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On 3/20/2019 at 2:37 PM, Makinen said:

Event: Epic Days:

Dark Lord:

Day 1: 47 hits (Kyoto)

Shards: 10 (1x1, 3x3)

Day 2: 25 hits (Kyoto), 72 total

Shards: 100 (1x100), 110 total

Okay, that was weird. Drops have been pretty craptastic the past two days, then out of nowhere a x100. Oh well.

-= Secondary statistic: Second direct Girl drop since implementation of the Shards system (198th hit) =-

Ninja Spy: 18 hits (Windia)

Shards: 6 (1x2, 1x4)

Day 3: 45 hits (Windia), 63 total

Shards: 9 (1x4, 1x5), 15 total

Day 4: 30 hits (Windia), 93 total

Shards: 4 (1x1, 1x3), 19 total

Biggest drought: 39 hits.

And the numbers:

Day 1 (Dark Lord): 8,5% (2,5 shards average)
Day 2 (Dark Lord): 4% (100 shards average) -- Skewed number due to x100 drop
Day 2 (Ninja Spy): 11,1% (3 shards average)
Day 3 (Ninja Spy): 4,4% (4,5 shards average)
Day 4 (Ninja Spy): 6,7% (2 shards average)
Total: 6,7% (11,72 shards average, or 2,9 without counting the x100)

So yeah, overall the drop rates have been absolutely disgusting for me this event. To elaborate, on 6,7% drop chance of an average of 2,9, it would have taken me over 500 attacks (518, to be precise), or the equivalent of 26 refills (disregarding regen) just to get one single girl: The break-even point for Epic Pachinko is 25 refills for a guaranteed x100.

If it hadn't been for the x100 drop on Day 2, this event would have been a complete waste of time for me, which is likely why it felt like such a chore this time around.

Edited by Makinen
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Epic Days...I had Windia already from the 2nd Anniversary.

Sifra (Karole)

Drop#  Battles  BTotal  Shards  STotal
  1       32       32      5       5
  2        5       37      5      10
  3        6       43      2      12
  4       11       54      3      15
  5        4       58      3      18
  6        1       59      5      23
  7        4       63      3      26
  8        8       71      2      28
  9       15       86      3      31
 10       23      109      3      34
 11       26      135      3      37
 12       11      146      2      39
 13        1      147      1      40
 14        6      153      1      41
 15       22      175      2      43
 16       13      188      1      44
 17       12      200      3      47
 18        1      201      2      49
 19       12      213      3      52
 20       11      224      2      54
 21        4      228      5      59
 22        1      229      1      60
 23        3      232      5      65
 24       12      244      3      68
 25        1      245      3      71
 26       15      260      1      72
 27        9      269      3      75
 28        3      272      1      76
 29       22      294      5      81
 30        5      299      4      85
 31        4      303      2      87
 32        5      308      4      91
 33       31      339      3      94
 34       10      349      4      98
 35        5      354      4     102
Averages  10.1             2.9

Barell (Donatien)

Drop#  Battles  BTotal  Shards  STotal
  1        3        3      2       2
  2        1        4      5       7
  3        1        5      1       8
  4       13       18      5      13
  5        1       19      4      17
  6       23       42      2      19
  7        1       43      3      22
  8        3       46      5      27
  9        9       55      3      30
 10       24       79      5      35
 11       16       95      4      39
 12        3       98      1      40
 13        1       99      4      44
 14       24      123      1      45
 15        2      125      5      50
 16        8      133      2      52
 17        7      140      2      54
 18        3      143      3      57
 19        1      144      3      60
 20       18      162      5      65
 21       11      173      1      66
 22        2      175      5      71
 23        1      176      4      75
 24       18      194      4      79
 25        8      202      4      83
 26        1      203      2      85
 27        5      208      5      90
 28        5      213      1      91
 29       36      249      2      93
 30       10      259      5      98
 31        8      267      2     100
Averages   8.6             3.2

Trinket (Edwarda)

Drop#  Battles  BTotal  Shards  STotal
  1        4        4      2       2
  2        7       11      3       5
  3       11       22      4       9
  4        3       25      1      10
  5        2       27      1      11
  6        4       31      5      16
  7        8       39      3      19
  8       14       53      3      22
  9        6       59      3      25
 10        3       62      3      28
 11        2       64      2      30
 12        4       68      1      31
 13        1       69      4      35
 14        5       74      1      36
 15       16       90      1      37
 16        1       91      2      39
 17        1       92      1      40
 18        7       99      4      44
 19       12      111      5      49
 20        1      112      3      52
 21        8      120      3      55
 22        9      129      4      59
 23        4      133      4      63
 24        6      139      4      67
 25        1      140      3      70
 26        3      143      1      71
 27        3      146      1      72
 28        3      149      1      73
 29       25      174      4      77
 30        3      177      3      80
 31       12      189      2      82
 32       11      200      3      85
 33       16      216      1      86
 34        9      225      1      87
 35       10      235      3      90
 36        2      237      2      92
 37       18      255      3      95
 38        5      260      1      96
 39        8      268      2      98
 40        3      271      2     100
Averages   6.8             2.5

Evelyn (Gruntt)

Drop#  Battles  BTotal  Shards  STotal
  1        4        4      1       1
  2       33       37      1       2
  3       12       49      4       6
  4        3       52      1       7
  5       12       64      3      10
  6        2       66      5      15
  7        8       74      5      20
  8       12       86      5      25
  9       14      100      3      28
 10        4      104      3      31
 11       11      115      3      34
 12        2      117      5      39
 13       12      129      5      44
 14        3      132      3      47
 15       24      156      4      51
 16       22      178      2      53
 17       14      192      5      58
 18       23      215      2      60
 19        4      219      1      61
 20        2      221      5      66
 21        9      230      2      68
 22        1      231      3      71
 23        2      233      2      73
 24        4      237      5      78
 25        7      244      5      83
 26        3      247      1      84
 27        2      249      4      88
 28        3      252      1      89
 29        2      254      5      94
 30       10      264      5      99
 31        6      270      1     100
Averages   8.7             3.2

Kyoto (Dark Lord)

Drop#  Battles  BTotal  Shards  STotal
  1       15       15      3       3
  2       12       27      2       5
  3        3       30      1       6
  4        2       32      2       8
  5        2       34      2      10
  6       33       67      4      14
  7       34      101    100     114

My first full drop after about 2800 event battles under the new system.

Overall averages: 8.6 battles/drop, 2.9 shards/drop (not counting the 100, of course).

Pretty decent results. Free combativity + 11637 kobans to acquire five girls.
 

Edited by _shal_
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On a somewhat depressing note though, along the way of my 354 Karole battles I received a whopping 12 shard drops for her regular girls, or only around one per 30 battles / 3% and change. My overall numbers on her have nosedived to 28 drops in 639 battles (4.4%). I guess we can rule out the theory that the number of girls to obtain affects the drop rates, because my Karole numbers (with 3 girls) are now getting as terrible as my Finalmecia numbers (with 1 girl)...

Unless this is all just extreme bad luck (on the order of 1:100,000 or worse), it looks like I'll require 3500-4000 battles to obtain Karole's girls, with Finalmecia and presumably also Roko (2 girls left, not battled yet since the system change) not looking much better rate-wise. I have no idea what the point of such extremely low drop rates is at the current world release speed, especially now that it's nearly impossible to finish events very early - even if a player doesn't need to do any Revivals/Epic Days/Legendary Days, he's only got about 18 days / 900 combativity per month to chase villain girls. World 11 looks like it'll take about 4 months for Kinkoid to release it completely. It looks like you can spend every single "free" combativity point for those 4 months and conceivably still not finish acquiring Karole's girls, short of getting lucky with full drops. And the vast majority of players won't get anywhere near 4x900 combativity to spend, of course.

If this keeps up for World 12, I suspect a lot of veteran players (who managed to get Karole's girls under the old system) will have a very rude awakening.


Edit: Not intended to start up a discussion about these villain girl drop rates here, just as some numbers-based food for thought.

Edited by _shal_
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Epic Days event

I had Windia from anniversary.

Dark Lord, 251 battles, 37 shards drops, 102 shards for Kyoto
Grunt, 168 battles, 20 shards drops, 167 shards for Evelyn, yes, a lucky 100 shards drop :D
Edwarda, 418 battles, 37 shards drops, 101 shards for Trinket
Donatien, 232 battles, 30 shards drops, 101 shards for Barell
Karole, 204 battles, 33 shards drops, 101 shards for Sifra (also 32 battles, 8 drops, 18 shards for Toshiko and 49 battles, 8 drops, 8 shards for Rin).

As always, epic days one of my favourites events: 5 girls for 12300 kobans (57 refills). A bargain if you compare with 10xEpic Pachinko.

Note: My numbers for Karole were splitted between the three girls, I assigned the battles to the girl who got shards every time, so you could also say that Sifra needed 285 battles.

I agree in part with @_shal_ statement that Karole drop rate is lower than initially expected. Perhaps not so extremely bad as his numbers show.

My own numbers for karole girls are:

Rin, 757 battles, 47 shard drops, 79 shards
Toshiko, 403 battles, 38 shard drops, 72 shards

If I don't have a dry streak, expect to get both in 500 battles.

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Event: Second Chance:

Dark Lord:

Day 1: 39 hits (Pooky)

Shards: 50 (1x6, 1x9, 1x11, 2x12)

Day 2: 47 hits (Pooky), 86 total

Shards: 40 (1x2, 3x3, 1x8, 1x9, 1x12), 90 total

Day 3: 41 hits (Pooky), 127 total

Shards: 15 (1x2, 1x6, 1x7), 105 total

Best 20: 3 drops / 32 shards (1x9, 1x11, 1x12), Day 1, and 4 drops / 26 shards (1x2, 1x3, 1x9, 1x12), Day 2

Biggest drought: 19 hits

Edited by Makinen
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I just discovered this thread and I like having the data so here is mine. All I really care about is #battles / girl so that is all I record but I do appreciate seeing everybody else's more detailed stats. Girl: Battles to 100 sharts (sharts if < 100).

Events

  • Val Red Battler: 88
  • Fabienne: 502
  • Loving Bunny: 155
  • Carine: 283
  • Alex: 284
  • Virginia: 114
  • Spring Lola: 149
  • Sifra: 328
  • Barell: 394
  • Nicole: 81 (100 shart drop. 53 flowers) :P
  • Pooky: 117

Bosses

  • Silvanus Queen Titania + Leedit: 520
  • Roko  Venam + Mavin + Noomye: 1390 (53, 50 42) I had over 1,300 battles on Roko under the old system. :(
  • Karol  Toshiko + Rin + Willow:  180 (26, 21, 17)

The number of battles for Karol is low because Sifra was on Karol and I allocated all 328 battles while she had Sifra to Sifra but also got a handful of sharts on Karol's girls.

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Agreed, even if there's no data collection going on it's nice to have a place for me to compare results, and posting it in a thread makes it way more organized than anything i'd cook up in Excel :P

Which has nothing to do with Excel being bad, mind you, but more my perfectionist tendencies getting the upper hand and turning the entire thing into a giant crossword puzzle of numbers...

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20 hours ago, snowman22 said:
  • Roko  Venam + Mavin + Noomye: 1390 (53, 50 42) I had over 1,300 battles on Roko under the old system. :(

Dang you're only halfway there so possibly another 1390 battles to go. And I thought I had it bad with Karole with 2650+ battles and that's only with 1-3 shards a drop.

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On 3/25/2019 at 4:39 PM, Makinen said:

Event: Second Chance:

Dark Lord:

Day 1: 39 hits (Pooky)

Shards: 50 (1x6, 1x9, 1x11, 2x12)

Day 2: 47 hits (Pooky), 86 total

Shards: 40 (1x2, 3x3, 1x8, 1x9, 1x12), 90 total

Day 3: 41 hits (Pooky), 127 total

Shards: 15 (1x2, 1x6, 1x7), 105 total

Best 20: 3 drops / 32 shards (1x9, 1x11, 1x12), Day 1, and 4 drops / 26 shards (1x2, 1x3, 1x9, 1x12), Day 2

Biggest drought: 19 hits

Got the girl and already had Nicole, so that's it from me on this event.

The stats:

Day 1 (Dark Lord): 12,8% (10 shards average)
Day 2 (Dark Lord): 14,9% (5,7 shards average)
Day 3 (Dark Lord): 7,3% (5 shards average)
Total: 11,8% (7 shards average)

Absolutely insane first day and good drop rates overall. MUCH better than the previous event for me, as this one gave a really distinct feel of progress instead of bogging down on droughts. 19 hits in a row without shards, and another time 15 hits i believe, so basically every 20 got me at least one drop.

It's interesting though that there can be such a discrepancy between days and players. Huh...

Edit: Also, interesting to mention that i unlocked Shina while still gathering Pooky shards, and now Pooky slipped in front of Shina in my Harem list. So it seems it starts counting a girl as 'active' the moment you start getting shards of her, even though they get sorted at the end of the list for being incomplete.

Edited by Makinen
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8 hours ago, Lhans said:

Dang you're only halfway there so possibly another 1390 battles to go. And I thought I had it bad with Karole with 2650+ battles and that's only with 1-3 shards a drop.

Yeah. I am a bit bitter. It looks like I will need 4,000 battles before I can write Roko off. I started in on him over 5 months ago. 8 days a month on him is doable so I am looking at 3-4 more months. Call it 4-5 months since I do 10/day on Karol and 40/day on Roko so I do not start with Karol at zero once Roko is done.

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On 3/24/2019 at 7:15 AM, _shal_ said:

If this keeps up for World 12, I suspect a lot of veteran players (who managed to get Karole's girls under the old system) will have a very rude awakening.

Well I got all 3 of Karole's girls with the new system, as long as the next zone's boss is giving off money, it wouldn't be so bad. If it's giving off books or buffs, ouch.

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Second Chance revival
Dark Lord
Day 1: 57 fights - 4 drops (7% drop rate) - 28 shards
Day 2: 52 fights - 6 drops (11.5% drop rate) - 27 shards (55 total)
Day 3: 51 fights - 3 drops (5.9% drop rate) - 8 shards (63 total)
Day 4: 50 fights - 5 drops (10% drop rate) - 35 shards (98 total)
Day 5: 2 fights - 1 drop - 3 shards (101 total)
TOTAL: 212 fights - 19 drops - 9% drop rate - average 5 shards per drop
Biggest drought 37 fights

Gruntt
Day 1: 54 fights - 2 drops (3.7% drop rate) - 21 shards
EVENT FINISHED with 266 fights for 122 shards

TOTAL: I have had 1,193 event fights (disregarding boss fights) without getting a 100-shard full drop.

Conclusion: to totally fail during a 5-day revival, you need two things. A bad drop rate (in my case 9%, slightly below the average of 10%) and a small shard count in every drop (in my case the average was 5 that doesn't sound too bad). So I did not have the worst luck, just slightly below average for both, and that was enough to boost my fight count over 200 and make me spend 4 full days on just one girl.
 

Edited by jaybee
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A Second Chance, final results:

Dark Lord (Pooky)

Fights / Shard Drop / Cumulative Progress
58 / 5 / 5
12 / 7 / 12
2 / 12 / 24
9 / 6 / 30
14 / 11 / 41
13 / 6 / 47
3 / 12 / 59
6 / 9 / 68
9 / 6 / 74
7 / 6 / 80
1 / 4 / 84
1 / 5 / 89
14 / 3 / 92
7 / 2 / 94
2 / 3 / 97
4 / 11 / 108.  Complete, 8 flowers, 162 battles, 9.9% hit rate, 66.7% return rate, 6.75 shards/drop

Gruntt (Nicole)
Fights / Shard Drop / Cumulative Progress
8 / 12 / 12
6 / 2 / 14
2 / 12 / 26
23 / 10 / 36
2 / 3 / 39
6 / 7 / 46
12 / 10 / 56
5 / 4 / 60
6 / 12 / 72
2 / 1 / 73
1 / 9 / 82
32 / — / 82. End of event. 82 shards, 105 fights, 9.5% hit rate, 78.1% return, 8.2 shards/drop.

This was my best classic/revival event in the shard era, by a significant margin (1.82 girls, 1.59 girls, 1.55 girls) and yet none of them have lived up to Kinkoid's professed 'average' of both girls without refills.  This is the only one that fits in @jelom's suggested typical variance / for the majority.

I see wide variability between players as randomness would predict.  I'm not seeing as much variance within players yet.  Some people have managed both every time.  Some have hit the 100-shard jackpot multiple times. Others, like me, haven't managed both yet.  If they don't converge soon then there is a problem that I personally consider a deal-breaker.  It's early yet, so I'll have to see how it shakes out...

Interesting pattern of a prolonged (more than a full day + carry-over combativity) dry spell at the beginning and another at the end.  Makes me wonder if there isn't some sort of  self-correcting factor incorporated into the randomness.  That type of mechanism is common for simulations, but not for open population games.

The total of 190 shards came in the middle 176 battles = 14.8% hit rate, 108% return, 7.3 shards/drop.  (The outer doldrums were 0-for-89 combined!)

This post also celebrates my 1-millionth Experience Point.

Edited by ZackMacKenzie
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There is some variance within players as well. My results this far (number of fights with the shard system for completed girls).

Revivals
128, 105, 212
Classic events
315, 239
Legendary
208 (100 shard drop at 52 shards)

105 and 212 is a pretty big difference.

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I was referring to bottom-line variance, and only to Classic/Revival events.  In other words, how many girls to you earn by the bitter end.  For example, I haven't seen many people report that they had lots of time left for ymen/boss-girl farming before the end of one event, and finished with only 1-and-a-half girls in another.

So, if your 128, 105, 212, 315, and 239 each ended with 2 girls earned, then there was no 'big picture' variance.  Also, no fair comparing revivals directly with classics because the rates are tweaked to end with the same 'average' of both girls by event close.

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Not really comparing different events, just listing data. In comparable events (revivals), 128+105 means I got both girls with half a day to spare, while 212 obviously means there was not enough time or fights to get the second girl.

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