Event & Villain interaction question

[ZackMacKenzie]

I chose to go after Carine instead of Alex.  Why would I do that when I'm a Know-how player?  Because Donatien hadn't given me any of his girls yet, so I figured I'd kill two birds with one stone by battling him instead of Gruntt.

My luck has been poor over these first 2 days, poor enough to question my assumptions about how the shard system works.

There are four general ways in which the system could be administered. They are:

1. Independent
2. Parallel
3. Event-dominant interference
4. Villain-dominant interference

1) Since getting villain girls and getting event girls are different processes (statistical events or trials) they are mathematically independent.  That means that the chances of getting a hit for one process has no bearing on the possibility of getting a hit form the other.  As a result, it would be remotely possible to get a hit with both systems in any one trial.  This is the most mathematically pure interpretation of things.

2) A slightly less mathematically accurate interpretation is that the chances of getting a hit from one process is additive with the other process.  That means your odds of getting a hit from either of the processes is the sum of the probabilities of getting a hit in each individual process.  In this implementation, it is not possible to get a hit with both systems at once.

3) In this implementation, the processes are run in sequence, with the Event going first.  In other words, first the system checks to see if you got a hit for the Event girl.  If you didn't, the system then checks to see if you got a hit for a Villain girl.  Here, your odds of getting an Event hit are normal, but your chances of getting a Villain girl hit are lower than normal because of that initial check for the Event.  It isn't a huge difference, but it might be significant depending on the base probabilities of getting hits.

4) This implementation is the opposite of the previous one.  Here the check for the Villain girl hit comes first and interferes with the chances of getting an event girl hit.

 

Given my "two birds with one stone" view, I had clearly assumed that either of the first two implementations had been used.  My results are either quite unlucky or indicate that version 4 has been used.

If versions 1 or 2 are in play, then things have been handled in  way that doesn't impact player decision-making.  Your decision to fight for an Event girl is not going to be impacted by the status of that villain's orgy team.

If version 3 or 4 are being used, then we could be adversely handicapping ourselves by our decision to fight for an Event girl captured by a Villain who still has story girls that aren't in our harem.

Either way, we should know which one it is so we can make informed decisions and avoid hurting our already slim chances.

[ObviouslyFake]

I think it is most likely to be version 2, because this what was claimed in the old pre-shards system. I assume there would be no reason to change that when introducing shards.

40 minutes ago, ZackMacKenzie said:

This is the most mathematically pure interpretation of things.

However: I would strongly disagree with this statement about them being independent. It's obviously impossible considering that you only get one reward per battle, so the drops can't be independent. But there is a much more natural way of thinking of the RNG calculation.

For example, consider rolling a 6-sided die. The outcome of rolling a 1 or a 6 are not independent events. Think of the drops being like that: If a 1 is rolled, you get a shard drop for Lola; if you roll a 6 you get a shard drop for Carine. If you already have Lola, then if you roll a 1, you get money instead. Thus whether you have Lola or not does not effect your chances of getting Carine.

[John 1039]

Someone previously shared Kinkoid actually mentioning on Discord that remaining regular drops on bosses do have an effect on event drops from them.

[ObviouslyFake]

Oh, I didn't realize that. I was wondering what made me think otherwise, so I went looking for it. This is what I found that I think gave me that impression (from the Legendary Days FAQ in the Dev Talk forum):

Quote

 

''Legendary gifts. These things raised mixed feelings. Some people didn't want them at all, because they thought they were getting in the way of getting the girl. Others were glad they were at least getting some value out of Ninja Spy. My view on the matter is that it's a good addition, and it certainly takes away part of the money loss.
Even at this point communication is important again. There was confusion over the drop system. My personal belief is that it doesn't change the chance of getting a girl, others thought it was affecting their chances of the girl. This could've been prevented if on forehand you had made a statement about the loot system. Drop system. And the thing about legendary gifts is not knowing the drop system we can't tell if they're good or bad. Just making up percentages here but if it's 1% girl, 9% gift, 90% money, (instead of the previous 99% money 1% girl) the gifts are great. If it's 95% money, 5% special drop, then another roll under special drop to determine girl or gift, then the gifts are bad.''

- It is close to the first one but not precisely. But be sure that the gifts are basically an additional drop and don’t mess up with the chances for the girl.

 

I had forgotten that this was regarding legendary gifts, and I assumed it was also about event girls. Do you know what precisely was said on the discord or where to find it?

[John 1039]

It was a screenshot of a comment on Discord, have tried to find it again but couldn't. I think, it was early February and one of the senior members on the forum replied that they always though such to be the case.

To clarify, the Kinkoid comment was mentioned regarding the shards system and not the old system.

Update: Found it.

 

Edited March 3, 2019 by John 1039

[ZackMacKenzie]

15 hours ago, John 1039 said:

Update: Found it.

 

Terrible thread for the matter at hand.

First it (falsely) implies that you can get shards for both, by using a 10x fight as an example.

Then it claims that the processes are distinct and don't influence one another.

Then it quotes a Dev from the Discord server, without enough context to know what he really means.

I'll have to wait until Lundi for a  more official answer to my question and in the meantime hope that I haven't screwed myself out of getting even one girl form this Classic Event.

[natstar]

You can get shards for both an event and villain girl at the same time if you do the 10x perform battle option just like in the old system where you could get more than one girl with it at once.  (dark lord to donatien seem to get event girls the most so farm the villain girls from them when no event is on so that they do not get in the way of getting event girls and under the old drop system you could get a villain girl to drop before an event one as well so having all the villain girls was an advantage back then as well)

I have seen people only get shards for one girl at a time with the single battle option in the new system but in the old system, event girls had a higher drop rate than villain girls so they most likely have a higher chance of event girl shards dropping as well than villain girl shards.

Edited March 4, 2019 by natstar

[ZackMacKenzie]

19 minutes ago, natstar said:

... so farm the villain girls from them when no event is on so that they do not get in the way of getting event girls and under the old drop system you could get a villain girl to drop before an event one as well so having all the villain girls was an advantage back then as well)

This part of your reply is really the only one that addresses the key issue, whether one act interferes with a second act.  Prior to the change, I neither saw this fact in writing, nor did I see it having a notable effect in play.

Regardless of whether it was the case before, if it is the current reality it's both counter-intuitive and unnecessarily punitive.