Theboy Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Hi! So, during the last event, my first event, I got the event girls pretty easily: Gwenaelle from Dark Lord and Metal Noemi from Gruntt. I just had to fight those guys like a mad man, connecting to the game each 20 minutes and waking up during the night to spend my energy points and waste none. Gwenaelle was pretty easy, i got her the first day but Metal Noemi was a bit trickier since i was getting keys like crazy. At that moment i thought that the pool of items that could drop from Dark Lord was smaller and thus it was easier for me to get Gwenaelle. On the third day i got Metal Noemi despite the keys. The rest of the event i just completed all the 14 quests and got Boku Mi Mai no problem. In the current event I have already gotten Summer Red Battler the way described before on day 2 but the problem comes with Summer Eugenie. On day 2 I started farming for her and i was swimming in blue shells so, again, i thought it was going to be trickier just like Metal Noemi. I completed the scroll The love boat and Edwarda stopped droping blue shells. Now, I have been farming now for about 7 days straight with the method above (which translates to about 300 encounters with edwarda rounding down a lot) and i havent gotten the event girl, but i have gotten regular Eugenie and Jeanne (although I have read online that event girls have 3x the drop chance of a regular girl which i dont know if it is true). This makes me think now that maybe this girl might be bugged for me. Maybe the pool of drops from edwarda actualliced and now i can only get the usual drops in stead of the event drops or some other thing. Or maybe this is normal and I have been extremely lucky in the past and now i'm just really unlucky. If anything i'll keep trying just like i've been. If anyone could shed some light on my case i would be really grateful. Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wizz Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 (edited) Your answer is in the question. In five days you droped 2 girls, this is more than most people. So you'll get the event girl eventually, nothing seems broken to me. And the 3 times drop chance seems to be a rumor. Never heard of it Edited July 10, 2017 by Wizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theboy Posted July 10, 2017 Author Share Posted July 10, 2017 Well, i'm sure you can figure out why i got 2 girls in 5 days But anyways i have never gotten a regular girl before the event girl, neither i have had to farm so much for anything in this game so it's kinda odd. Do you already have Summer Eugene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarkasth Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 the girl drops, u r just spoiled from ur previous luck ( ' - ') Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greetingz Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 The fact that you ASSUME a girl should've dropped in that small number is already your downfall. You'll not get this event girl during this period, and thats not a bug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theboy Posted July 10, 2017 Author Share Posted July 10, 2017 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Shidou said: The fact that you ASSUME a girl should've dropped in that small number is already your downfall. You'll not get this event girl during this period, and thats not a bug. I only point out that it's weird the diference between the number of times i had to fight for all the other girls and this one. I am just assuming cautiously based on experience, i'm sorry if that bothers you Still i know i might not be the person that has fought edwarda the most in the whole game but man, i have to be up there on the free to play list. But anyways, how many fights whould you say your standard is for getting an event girl? Edited July 10, 2017 by Theboy Corrections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greetingz Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Theboy said: I only point out that it's weird the diference between the number of times i had to fight for all the other girls and this one. I am just assuming cautiously based on experience, i'm sorry if that bothers you Still i know i might not be the person that has fought edwarda the most in the whole game but man, i have to be up there on the free to play list. But anyways, how many fights whouldyou say you standard is for getting an event girl? How many? Thats not something you should think about. I dropped a girl on the very first fight and another girl later the 2nd time I had a full bar. An event later I fought for 8 full days only to get one girl and not the 2nd after 14 days. Numbers mean nothing, you need to proc that single dice throw or you won't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theboy Posted July 10, 2017 Author Share Posted July 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Shidou said: How many? Thats not something you should think about. I dropped a girl on the very first fight and another girl later the 2nd time I had a full bar. An event later I fought for 8 full days only to get one girl and not the 2nd after 14 days. Numbers mean nothing, you need to proc that single dice throw or you won't get it. But it has to have something to do with probability, and I personally dont even know the parameters that affect the RNG, maybe you do. But if we can make a statistic and more or less see how it changes we can know how to maximize the chances of getting a girl. And i'm not talking about retarded team comp strats, i'm talking about metagame and statistics that nobody seems to be doing in this forum. In the one of Harem heroes there is a little bit more, but it's not official (is it?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wizz Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Shidou said: How many? Thats not something you should think about. I dropped a girl on the very first fight and another girl later the 2nd time I had a full bar. An event later I fought for 8 full days only to get one girl and not the 2nd after 14 days. Numbers mean nothing, you need to proc that single dice throw or you won't get it. 18 minutes ago, Theboy said: But it has to have something to do with probability, and I personally dont even know the parameters that affect the RNG, maybe you do. But if we can make a statistic and more or less see how it changes we can know how to maximize the chances of getting a girl. And i'm not talking about retarded team comp strats, i'm talking about metagame and statistics that nobody seems to be doing in this forum. In the one of Harem heroes there is a little bit more, but it's not official (is it?) 1. Why the f*ck does everyone seems to assume that the drop rate isn't a constant variable? 2. Shidou, I get what you want to say but he is right to search for an average value. Sure an average value is "average" so even if this value is 200 you can play 600 battles and still get no drop but this value allow players to moderate their expectations. If you didn't get any girl during the last 50 battles then this is normal but if you didn't get any in the last 250 then you can get hyped because one will likely drop soon. Some people with basic math knowledge may say "this doesn't work, every roll is independant so even if you didn't get any in the last 250 battles the drop rate is still the same". This is true but there is also something called geometric distribution which allow to determine the probability of getting a success in less than a certain amount of try. And obviously this value rise toward 100% when the amount of battle rise. 3. I'm taking note in order to approach the drop rate. I was doing it on the dark lord with a fixed team but the data were likely messed up by the event so I will try again later. Sadly this will take time given the low drop rate and frequent events which may change the values. Anyway, it's better to wait for the soon to come update before trying any calculations. Edited July 10, 2017 by Wizz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greetingz Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wizz said: Some people with basic math knowledge may say "this doesn't work, every roll is independant so even if you didn't get any in the last 250 battles the drop rate is still the same". This is true but there is also something called geometric distribution which allow to determine the probability of getting a success in less than a certain amount of try. And obviously this value rise toward 100% when the amount of battle rise. I know a person that said the same thing, I believe you said your number is 0.8% That person is less then 0.01% by now. As for math, I love it, actually I am in school that section because of it. But making a average number only satisfies the people that GET the girls. Numbers mean nothing behind actions. As for your other statements about the numbers in .2, Knowing you're close to a drop still doesnt mean anything. I'll go on by your so called 250, (That obv is a made up number based off your luck alone) The person is close to 250, assumes he get a girl soon. Then doesn't get it, get's mad complains. And is currently at 600 and still doesn't have it. Doesn't help anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theboy Posted July 10, 2017 Author Share Posted July 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, Wizz said: 1. Why the f*ck does everyone seems to assume that the drop rate isn't a constant variable? Because of the variable number of girls in the pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wizz Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Shidou said: I know a person that said the same thing, I believe you said your number is 0.8% That person is less then 0.01% by now. That's why I said this will take time. The lower the probability, the higher the number of try needed to approach the real value. 21 minutes ago, Shidou said: (That obv is a made up number based off your luck alone) That is a made up number based off nothing. It's just for the exemple. 21 minutes ago, Shidou said: As for your other statements about the numbers in .2, Knowing you're close to a drop still doesnt mean anything. I'll go on by your so called 250, (That obv is a made up number based off your luck alone) The person is close to 250, assumes he get a girl soon. Then doesn't get it, get's mad complains. And is currently at 600 and still doesn't have it. Doesn't help anybody. If the probability is fixed, then knowing the number will not change the facts and thus is "useless" in a sense. However it will change the players' state of mind and understanding of the game and some people just want to know. That's all there is to it. Moreover, even if I don't believe it, the value may not be fixed. If it's the case we will win something. 21 minutes ago, Theboy said: Because of the variable number of girls in the pool Nothing prevent having a probability X of droping a girl no matter everything else and if you do drop one then a random girl is rolled from the pool of dropable ones. I personally believe this is the case as this is the simplest way to deal with this situation from an IT pov. Edited July 10, 2017 by Wizz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarkasth Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stang91 Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 yeah, you've just got some luck I mean I battled the dark lord for Gwenaelle non-stop during the music event, wiped the floor with him every single time and got ZIP! And right now I'm in the middle of trying to get summer Eugenie from Edwarda and even though I've been beating her almost non-stop I've still got ZIP so far, and I would not be surprised in the least right now if it stayed that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpkingun Posted July 17, 2017 Share Posted July 17, 2017 yeah ... Sommer Event is over and i got nothing.... super frustating .... takes the fun out of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Necromancer Posted July 17, 2017 Share Posted July 17, 2017 I got Summer Red on the last hours of the event ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts