blaa
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Posts posted by blaa
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The data is simple, all contests were tracked (on nutaku) since they changed the contest rewards. There wasnt the same contest within in 3 days before lately. After a few months a pattern was recognised and postulated. It's that easy.
Yes, i dont get it and I wont send a report for this. You already said what the outcome will be, why should i bother? I already invited you to a chat on discord to get a proper chat, but you refused. It's probably better though. Be safe!
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10 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:
Oh God, no, not again. Not the dumb misunderstanding followed by immediate attacks based on assuming the worst possible interpretation of what I said without even giving it pause or asking either yourself or me directly whether your assumption is correct and I'm a big meanie or perhaps we should clear the misunderstanding...
Fuck that fucking shit, seriously.
So no, I didn't imply anything, and no neither you, zoopokemon or the President of the Universe would be a reliable source for the theory you mentioned just by mentioning it... That seemed obvious enough to me. If all there is a legend, then it's a fucking legend, and I don't wallow in superstition for odds and another measurable facts in a rational context like this game's mechanics, thanks.
When I mentioned " A SOURCE", I obviously meant a source for THE THEORY SLASH BELIEF ITSELF. As in, where the fuck does this assumption comes from? Who spread it first and on what basis (that wasn't "X and Y said so", again). Was it soft-announced or admitted behind the scenes by someone from Kinkoid? Was it the result of someone's Excel computations showing this kind of trend as likely over a statistically significant data sample? Or did it come out of someone's ass and should be treated as such? That's what I'd like to know.
Clearer now? Good. Let's cut it down with jumping to stupid conclusions and getting butthurt over nothing real, please.
no worries, I will leave already. I thought i might help you guys out here, cause this looked like a crucial information here (since it wasnt just random before (so you gave "false" information)). It's not a "legend", there is data behind, but go search for yourself.
But before I get another warning for nothing, I will leave you alone (btw your reactions are one of the reasons i didnt post much the last few weeks, but i dont think anyone really cares or even noticed - like you said, if we dont like it we can leave, that's what I did and will do again; already regret reading the forum after a long day).
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31 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:
This is the first time I hear about this belief, strangely enough. A 3 days grace period before a given contest reappears sounds too specific to come out of nowhere, but at the same time it also sounds too good to be true, and too arbitrary to make more sense than pure random picks. And I don't think it matches even my own experience over the years without particularly paying attention (I typically approach daily contests as groups rather than individual ones, as there are so many near-duplicates). As in, I don't specifically remember for sure the same DC being rolled twice in a row, but I'm almost certain I've seen the same DC reappear after only 48 hours, and I'd even say frequently so.
There are other well documented disparities like the Pachinko one appearing far less often than others, although it feels rarer than it actually is, because its relative scarcity is amplified by the grouping effect I mentioned earlier, as this is the odd one out with no duplicate at all. So, we had many many times a long series of DCs picked from the "donation" group or the "fight villains" group or the "gain XP" group, which all feel the same even though they can technically be different picks. But it's more noticeable when Pachinko or even Sell Items appear, because they stand out against the samey groups.
Bottom line, I don't believe there's a valid reason to suspect anything's changed recently or not in terms of daily contest picks at this time. And I'd be interested in a source if there's one, preferably reliable ofc, for this contest pick cooldown theory. I suspect it's bogus at this point, but I'm willing to look into it if there's a solid base for it.
i like how you imply I am not a reliable source, but on the same time you argue with anecdotic evidence that it might not have been so. Oh, well, maybe this is a more "reliable" source, there is plenty more to find ... like I said
and just to be clear: for a very long time = since they changed the contest rewards/duration
since i dont know if zoo is reliable enough, i just post a part of a discussion with shal (who you at least respect enought, afaik)
he wouldnt ask, if he wouldnt assume that there was a 3 day rule, especially when he commented like this afterwards
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15 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:
Random is random...
yeah, random is randon, but ... until a few weeks ago we all believed that a contest cant appear for another 3 days after he was live - but first we had some occurances (on nutaku) with only one other contest in between, and a few days ago we have had a situation were we got the same contest the next day and 2 days later again, so in 4 days 3 times the same contest.
Maybe this was always possible, but since we had multiple situations for the first time since a few weeks, i guess they changed the timer, maybe with the introduction of CumC. (It was also told multiple times in the forum that people who have "seen" a contest 2 days in a row were actually haluzinating (= so strong was the believe that there is a rule of multiple days in between before the same contest can reappear)).
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Well, then I will add my two cents too.
Result:
There is not much more to say. It was a close battle, but I lost. This way it was even more costly than I hoped for, but what can you do? Glad I run leagues profitable for a very long time already.
Other stats: 3 AME used, a lot of early refills, 3 Cordy all week, 0,06 worse than expected average, a few boosted players fought
Thoughts going into the league:
- Well, shit timing to fight this kind of a strong opponent. Next week I cant show a good team and his current team is sligthly better than mine.
- Best strategy (also from previous experiences) seems to be fighting as many people before blessing change than possible
- rarum probably underestimates me, so there might be some good chances to catch him by surprise.
- rarum overestimates his lineup strength (from data we gathered thus far, he was down quite a bite in total average, but also not even close to my max average), but with the new team it looks even (he definitley is way better on the analytical aspect of the game than I am)
- PoA is gonna make everything so difficult, cause when I fight all players early I wont have fights left in the end; ofc, i could use kisses, but with AME (which i need), i cant do that
general gaming principles for me
- save as many resources as you can, dont use them if not necessary
- play high(er) risk high(er) reward in general
tactics and mistakes
- like I said, i tried to clear all fights early, but with PoA in mind and the first gaming principle I left some players (who I assumed wont boost or will have a weak team after blessing change) to get some fights for my last PoA task (i didnt rush the 3rd last task, cause I wanted to take more combativity in CE, so I might have chanbes to get both girls before MD and with some luck the champion girl before monday, so I can use my orbs to clear the remaining girls again for CumC)
- i didnt thought rarum could get an equally good lineup the 2nd week like he had the first week (ofc in comparison of what I would expect others will have, so i didnt expect it to be as good as in the first week only in this regard). And i also thought more people would already have a better team after BC or at least be boosted. Both assumptions got crushed when I saw him getting over thousands points with almost only 25s
- i made some risky calls to save resources which got punished (e.g. not reboosting for blessing change to get another 6h more for the next cooldown, even though I knew people could get midsnapshot reboosted with their new team+booster in this particular snapshot (what one permabooster did when I reapplied))
- i switched a lot of teams, yes, but I didnt have a good enough team to counter physical teams (which we had at least some in our league)
- I didnt spend resources to upgrade some girls to get an even better team
- i underestimated rarums team strength in regard of how strong i thought the league was: it was overall a strong league, so I assumed he was going mostly only after low level players first, and his average had to drop eventually - but it didnt
- one more thing: i disguised my actual team strength in the 2nd week (it's actually 157k) to lure rarum in a sense of false security, so he might drop his guard and fight some people without AME (the remaining 9?) or not rushing too much after BC. Well, it didnt work
There could be more said, but it might not be too interesting for you guys.
Anyway, congrats again, well played, it was thrilling league - RNG thought the same, so i got SJL (one of the 2 thoughest player on nutaku, i would say) Sygfried (who has now also some 750 girls and was always a tough opponent) and lakajira (for sure one top5 player on nutaku). Maybe I should cut my losses early this time.
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regarding the question of a big variety of girls to fight: How many 6*/5* have you upgraded on what level, rarum?
And: I did the math: with 40k gems and 7M GXP i can unlock 750 girls (i would have gems left to upgrade at least 7 mythics) - if you wish, i will do that when we face each other next time.
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i overestimated my opponent, so i put a lot more effort into this league than necessary
some refills after blessing change, 2 AME, a little bit better than expected average, fought 10 players boosted, best average so far
this week i am with rarum, so I have to think about how I am gonna approach this difficult task, so far we both fought 6 players, and it's 146 to 148 for me
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another first place, got lucky shado (750 team) didnt play serious
60 fights with AME, 1 boosted opponent, all wins, got 0,06 better than expected average
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there is no thread for CumC, right?
it was more expensive this time (68EPx1, some green x1 and 120 mythic orbs), couldnt secure first in regular contest cause kelvay challenged me
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finished early cause of CumC - didnt see a better opportunity to spend epic orbs
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On 3/8/2022 at 12:32 PM, blaa said:
34 orbs for 2 girls, dropped with orb 7 and 34
since the last change (added books, lower equip drop rate) that's 530 orbs / 19 girls / 261 gifts / 250 books / 0 equip / 3,584% drop rate / 1 girl in 27,89 orbs / 880 orbs remaining / 0 perma pachinko girls left
I am on a total of 2263 orbs / 133 girls / 994 gifts / 250 books / 724 equip / 39 dating tokens / 123 gems / 5,877% drop rate / 1 girl in 17,015 orbs / 880 orbs remaining / 0 perma pachinko girls left
another 3 girls for 68 orbs
since the last change (added books, lower equip drop rate) that's 598 orbs / 22 girls / 296 gifts / 280 books / 0 equip / 3,678% drop rate / 1 girl in 27,18 orbs / 857 orbs remaining / 0 perma pachinko girls left
I am on a total of 2331 orbs / 136 girls / 1029 gifts / 280 books / 724 equip / 39 dating tokens / 123 gems / 5,834% drop rate / 1 girl in 17,139 orbs / 857 orbs remaining / 0 perma pachinko girls left
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got lucky, in 84 league fights i got 12 drops; got the girl with 140 kisses + league fights
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i have two concerns in general:
1) there is like a hidden assupmtions that drives all the recent changes, which is ecconomical motivated and focus (too much) on (an idea of) growth. This assumption leads to a flood of new features (= anticipated growth in different regards like money, more options, ...) and to an oversee at the same time: the need of balancing steps (bring something into balance isnt growth, right?). But if you wann grow, you need have to a good balance/starting point. Additonally, the flood of features and the massive changes were a reason a lot of players stopped playing/paying for patreon. To deal with that problem they only had/have the same answer: growth in all aspects. The problem with growth is, that too many girls/features etc. arent easy to handle or to have an overview: Nobody wants to equip over 1000 girls or unlock thousands of affection scences again, especially not if you have to pay for them.
2) seeing how bad last updates were implemented it's hard to believe these new features get a proper balance and having player experience in mind. With both aspects in mind i dont see how any of these features could bring something good, even though some could be nice.
IMO, i would focus more on QoL and balancing aspects than throwing one new event/feature every other month on the player base and destroy every meta/balance we had. So, no new features, but all QoL aspects we can find in scripts. Make the game more coherence at first, then add something new.
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2 hours ago, Kenrae said:
blaa was extremely lucky with his brackets, I assure you.
blaa agrees
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started with 17 kisses; missed about 15 league fights, but I am off to a good start with 36 shards currently. Not sure how I am gonna finish this event, but I actually might use some remaining nutaku gold for a season pass
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when i look at the scores of others, I probably got really lucky over here
I am really curious when people suffer from spending like crazy in the first few contest rounds; hopefully they dont need a girl then.
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really like this event
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i was really busy around reset, what caused a) i deleted the screenshot before saving it and b) i was putting on the wrong boosters, anyway I have an older screenshot which is pretty accurate after all (some changes in the bottom 15, but no changes in top 9)
i beat shad0w the week before, but I was surprised I could have played with only one AME, well, it is how it is.
309 players, all won, fought all unboosted, 3 refills after blessing change, 0,04 worse than expected average
I started with really bad luck, after around 150 fights I was 0,3 down, but I got luckier from day to day then.
This week I am with shado (750 mythic team); let's see how this is gonna play out
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finished the event easily; got the champion girl with 5 tries, x100 on one of the troll girls, some orbs for the remaining two.
GL everyone who still needs it!
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If you have that many gems and you cant wait to upgrade girls (you have one week every week for the girls next week) i would go after the likelihood girls get blessed. You can see this in zoo's sheet too.
Besides that it's obvious to get a roster for every element with 3 girls.
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22 minutes ago, Xemnas said:
For now i'm still waiting the patch where i will read: "gems are added in the daily goals" (as was announced in the awakening system)
iirc, they burried that idea
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On 11/25/2020 at 10:34 AM, Noacc said:
Patch Notes Week #10
09.03.2022
Adventure
- New World 16 Quest 6 Adventure Release: “Angry Mood”: Squeeze it as it owes you money! Also. Mid-air blowjo…Just check out the latest adventure for yourself!
Arcana told me that her magic staff has run out of juice.
She must borrow yours for a bit for some naughty spell-slinging.XoXo
-Bunny
perfect patch notes? Nothing to complain. I like all of it. 😃
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i guess, nobody needed that girl (badly) - i take the cheap first
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yeah, it's unnecessary confusion, they could easily clarify this - agreed
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On 2/18/2022 at 2:11 PM, blaa said:
48 orbs for 3 girls, solid result
since the last change (added books, lower equip drop rate) that's 496 orbs / 17 girls / 243 gifts / 236 books / 0 equip / 3,427% drop rate / 1 girl in 29,17 orbs / 846 orbs remaining / 0 perma pachinko girls left
I am on a total of 2229 orbs / 131 girls / 976 gifts / 236 books / 724 equip / 39 dating tokens / 123 gems / 5,86% drop rate / 1 girl in 17,01 orbs / 846 orbs remaining / 0 perma pachinko girls left
34 orbs for 2 girls, dropped with orb 7 and 34
since the last change (added books, lower equip drop rate) that's 530 orbs / 19 girls / 261 gifts / 250 books / 0 equip / 3,584% drop rate / 1 girl in 27,89 orbs / 880 orbs remaining / 0 perma pachinko girls left
I am on a total of 2263 orbs / 133 girls / 994 gifts / 250 books / 724 equip / 39 dating tokens / 123 gems / 5,877% drop rate / 1 girl in 17,015 orbs / 880 orbs remaining / 0 perma pachinko girls left
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Chit Chat
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by blaa
yes, and it's not relevant yet anymore, but it explains the confusion people were having when seeing the same contests with a lower cooldown. The fact that it has happend already more than a few times in a short time makes it only more likely to be true before (a certain point) though.