You're almost right (and this would already be nowhere near worth it if you were). It seems the odds are actually evenly split between all 6 possible equipment AND the girl shards, so it's only a 1/7 chance to get shards at all with each non-final victory. TL;DR: Not even taking orbs into account, it's WAY cheaper to just flat out pay the 5.4k for the girl in Epic Pachinko than to even touch the Champion. V_v
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