Eren jaeger Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I have been fighting dark lord for more than 100 times now still I did not get lupa 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[CNO] BananaJoy Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 complain after u did a few hundred times. drop chance for girls r very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShOt228 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 это рандом,как то с первого раза 2 с разу выпало) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don23 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I took finalmecia from level 90 to 131. That's over 200 battles. Not a single drop. I'm starting to think that they only start dropping girls when you max out their level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkazuma Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 No just its like running from America to Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCanon Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 after 450ish battle after the patch and 100+ before the patch, Grunnt finally dropped one of the regular girls. the drop rate is way too low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shepwgu Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Okay, look. Pre-Patch the average (stress the average) was 1 boss girl / 30 days. I was getting one every 20 without missing many fights (insomniac). That is one girl (for me) every 1400 fights. I got a girl from Dark Lord 2 days before the patch. The patch changed the global "fight w/o a girl" counter from a global to a local per-boss variable. Your counter was reduced by about 1/8 of it's previous value. A girl dropping right after the patch would be unexpected! I have been spreading my fights out among the 5 bosses that still have girls for me, and got Leedit just this morning. I'm probably lucky, but I also am confident that under the prepatch system the odds would be so low that I would just be waiting until my regular timeframe for a drop.... and that would be about 2 weeks from now. Yes, I'm just one person and this is anecdote, but so is everyone else's individual account. And, you know, saying "I have done 30/100/200 battles without a drop" is pretty silly. 100 pre patch and 450 after is about 9 days. If you were getting regular drops faster than that before, then good for you! That isn't typical even for the grinders. You must be really lucky! For event girls they are a higher fixed rate and, yes, you are at the whims of fate. I don't know what that looks like post-patch. I got Lupa a few hours prior to the patch. Odds are maybe 1% for event girls. Remember, that is like rolling a 100 sided die and getting exactly 100. If you do it 100 times, you might or might not hit. You might hit in your first roll or never in 1000 rolls. If you keep rolling it long enough, eventually you'll probably get there. I got Bunny on the first day, then spend 5+ days of full fighting with Grunt to get Lupa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffany Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, shepwgu said: Odds are maybe 1% for event girls. Remember, that is like rolling a 100 sided die and getting exactly 100. If you do it 100 times, you might or might not hit. You might hit in your first roll or never in 1000 rolls. If you keep rolling it long enough, eventually you'll probably get there. FYI, the mathematical probability of a 1% chance event happening in 100 attempts is 0.634 or 63.4% for 1000 attempts it's 0.99996 or 99.996% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shepwgu Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 30 minutes ago, Tiffany said: FYI, the mathematical probability of a 1% chance event happening in 100 attempts is 0.634 or 63.4% for 1000 attempts it's 0.99996 or 99.996% Exactly! Thank you for putting exact probability in! There is a roughly 62% of getting an event drop in the first two days of an event (96 battles). Far from a guarantee. By 500 battles (mid-day 11 now), you really should have had an event drop (99.3%). Again, assuming 1% drop rate and not missing chances! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkazuma Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/13/2018 at 1:17 PM, Eren jaeger said: I have been fighting dark lord for more than 100 times now still I did not get lupa Dude you need to fight till the end I just got lupa yesterday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts