Overall crit / special rate is considerably lower than 50%

[Hollo]

"The harmony stat is the probability to activate your girl's special ability. You get a 20% bonus if you counter your opponent class. A total of 50% chance is distributed amongst the two opponents depending on their Harmony  stat." HH Wiki: Battle

I've been counting actual hits for several arena battles now, and the crit / special rate is much lower than 50%. After about 20 fights, for example, I counted 38 crits out of 273 hits overall - about 14%. I can keep counting, but if the crit rate truly is 50%, then my arena battles are in a very implausible dry spot. Again, this is overall hits, both me and my opponent - I'm counting every hit in my head, while counting crits on my fingers, and then recording that in a file.

AFAIK, the game itself never claims 50%. Does it? Is this just the wiki being out of date?

[Chthugha]

I think you miss the point of the combined chance being 50%.
This means that for both players the actual chance is lower.
Percentages don't add like that.

For example, let's take the easy 25% for both players, and you defeat your opponent on your 2nd turn.

This can happen in the following ways (special hit = s, normal hit = n):
sss chance of 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 = 0.015625
ssn chance of 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 0.046875
sns chance of 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 0.046875
nss chance of 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 0.046875
snn chance of 0.25 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.140625
nsn chance of 0.25 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.140625
nns chance of 0.25 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.140625
nnn chance of 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.421875

Now if you calculate the expected amount of special hits, this would lead you to E = 3 x 0.015625 + 3 x (2 x 0.046875) + 3 x (1 x 0.140625) + 0 x 0.421875 = 0.75 or exactly 25% of the amount of turns this battle took.

Point is, the sum of two separate percentages won't lead to a total percentage of a certain event to happen.

[Hentai Therapist]

I lose to players 10 levels below me because of the "luck" factor. They want you to pay for the game so  you are scripted to lose despite level advantage.

[Habi]

8 hours ago, Hollo said:

"The harmony stat is the probability to activate your girl's special ability. You get a 20% bonus if you counter your opponent class. A total of 50% chance is distributed amongst the two opponents depending on their Harmony  stat." HH Wiki: Battle

I've been counting actual hits for several arena battles now, and the crit / special rate is much lower than 50%. After about 20 fights, for example, I counted 38 crits out of 273 hits overall - about 14%. I can keep counting, but if the crit rate truly is 50%, then my arena battles are in a very implausible dry spot. Again, this is overall hits, both me and my opponent - I'm counting every hit in my head, while counting crits on my fingers, and then recording that in a file.

AFAIK, the game itself never claims 50%. Does it? Is this just the wiki being out of date?

i heard that numerous times now. i think i observed it myself but i didn't actually count it.

7 hours ago, Chthugha said:

I think you miss the point of the combined chance being 50%.
This means that for both players the actual chance is lower.
Percentages don't add like that.

For example, let's take the easy 25% for both players, and you defeat your opponent on your 2nd turn.

This can happen in the following ways (special hit = s, normal hit = n):
sss chance of 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 = 0.015625
ssn chance of 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 0.046875
sns chance of 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 0.046875
nss chance of 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 0.046875
snn chance of 0.25 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.140625
nsn chance of 0.25 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.140625
nns chance of 0.25 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.140625
nnn chance of 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.421875

Now if you calculate the expected amount of special hits, this would lead you to E = 3 x 0.015625 + 3 x (2 x 0.046875) + 3 x (1 x 0.140625) + 0 x 0.421875 = 0.75 or exactly 25% of the amount of turns this battle took.

Point is, the sum of two separate percentages won't lead to a total percentage of a certain event to happen.

while your math is basically correct i don't think this is what he meant. maybe there is indeed a misunderstanding of how that system works. (on my side aswell)

edit: according to the description the total amount of specials should be 50% but your math shows otherwise. i think the fallacy here lies that on one turn only one opponent does an action and not both at the same time. that effectively halfes the 50% to 25% in the simplified example. in real world scenarios the real special rate would have other values depending on the harmony distribution. vs boss battles you should usually score more than 25% total (since you prolly have way more harmony and more turns due to first strike).

based on that assumptions i'd say you usually have way less harmony than your opponents because 14% seems really low.

Edited August 11, 2018 by Habi

[Chthugha]

1 hour ago, Habi said:

i heard that numerous times now. i think i observed it myself but i didn't actually count it.

while your math is basically correct i don't think this is what he meant. maybe there is indeed a misunderstanding of how that system works. (on my side aswell)

edit: according to the description the total amount of specials should be 50% but your math shows otherwise. i think the fallacy here lies that on one turn only one opponent does an action and not both at the same time. that effectively halfes the 50% to 25% in the simplified example. in real world scenarios the real special rate would have other values depending on the harmony distribution. vs boss battles you should usually score more than 25% total (since you prolly have way more harmony and more turns due to first strike).

based on that assumptions i'd say you usually have way less harmony than your opponents because 14% seems really low.

It really doesn't matter all that much though.
You can take any system you like and any amount of strikes + harmony distributions.
On average it will always lead to 25%, it's just way to annoying to start to prove that.

The misconception here is that people think it should lead to 50% special moves, while both players clearly have less than 50% chance to get a special move.
How can the amount of special moves ever get to 50% of the combined special moves? Right, it cannot. It will always lead to way less than 50% special moves and closer to 25% special moves.

[Hollo]

Yeah, I misinterpreted the harmony description as having all hits being 50% likely to crit, with some of them being yours and the rest being your opponent's, in proportion to your harmony.

That said, I'm still counting 14% overall, which I think is way below what I should see, even factoring in the glitch with the opponent only ever critting once. But I'll need more data to be sure.

(I would've replied two days ago, but the forum glitched me out again... :shakefist:)

 

Edited August 13, 2018 by Hollo

[_shal_]

There's a large luck factor involved with hitting crits, too. I tracked my crits for two days recently - the first day I got very unlucky, hitting only 78 crits in about 70 battles (expected number was ~98 crits), and consequently lost a lot of battles I "should" have won. The second day my crits were right on the money, with 64 crits vs. 62 expected. Anecdotally, I'm pretty sure I've also had stretches in the past where I got very lucky.

You're charm, right? Keep in mind that in winning battles with charm girls, the number of crit-relevant hits you've executed is one fewer than you've actually done, i.e. if you're ending the battle with hit #6, you've only seen 5 crit opportunities (#6 would have been displayed on your defensive turn, which doesn't take place because the battle is already over).

Edited August 13, 2018 by _shal_