A hypothesis on the pity timer

[Urist]

So I think there is a constant decay on the pity timer. What I mean by this is after a fight, your chance for a girl increases by X percent, but that increase starts decaying immediately, and by the time you make your next fight half an hour later, that increase is significantly lower than X (but still greater than it was prior to that fight). Here's why I think this:

 

After tanned girls, I still had a regular girl left on Donatien (Kelina). I've been "preserving" (or so I thought) the pity timer on Donatien by fighting him roughly every 12 hours, with the rest of my fight going to Roko. Then with travel revival, I do Donatien first and get Travel Arcana. So then I switch to Dark Lord and I'm "preserving" both Roko and Donatien, which was a bit annoying. Anyway, after 2 days (very lucky, I know) I get Travel Kalissa and I decided I didn't want to keep "preserving" Donatien, and with 2 event farming sessions built up within his regular timer, I thought I would just finish him off. I started pumping kobans into combat refills. It only took about 3 refills before Kelina came. I'm pretty happy, and go back to regular farming Roko. This was yesterday. Today, I think about how I'm kind of on the home stretch with boss girls, only 5 left, and I decide I'll koban-farm Roko till he drops a girl, then do the same with Silvanus and then only Roko will have girls for me, and I'll never again have to "preserve" a pity timer for more than one boss. 8 refills later:

 

Yes, I got 3 boss girls TODAY. Now of course I did have about a month and a half (minus events) of fights built up on Roko. But I had literally nothing built up on Silvanus. I haven't fought him since December, possibly November. In my harem Leedit and Fairy are after Clarisse, but before Commander Cattleman and Fae Marjoa, which is what I'm basing the date on. Back then it was a shared pity timer for all bosses so there would be no reason to keep fighting Silvanus when I gained access to the new world. So 2 boss girls with a maximum of 160 fights, which is just over 3 days worth of regular combat point regeneration, except all spent at once.

 

So that's what makes me think the pity timer decays, and rather quickly at that. It would make sense too, since people who are throwing this many kobans into mere combat refills are likely people who have spent money for kobans. So, any thoughts? Corroborating or refuting evidence?

 

[Zteev]

Seems like a reasonable hypothesis, as it fits the known data. Testing it will prove a huge problem, but maybe some folks can do that.

[GeorgeMTO]

I personally don't think there's any "decay" in there, the idea seems rather silly to me that Kinkoid would implement a pity timer, tell us about the pity timer, but fail to mention anywhere that it decays over time.

One minor flaw to your argument is that you say that Silvanus had no pity timer built up. When they switched away from the global pity timer to a boss based one, the current global bonus you had was split amongst all your other bosses. So unless you got a drop the final fight before that patch occurred, there's an (unknown) pity bonus there.

You don't also seem to consider the possibility of just being very lucky. I remember getting one girl off Gruntt after the change taking me several weeks of fighting (he had an event girl so even got to farm him during that), but then giving me the next one only a day or two later. Sometimes you just get lucky and get drops really close together.

[Habi]

your whole argumentation is based on a pity timer where it actually is a pity counter, a separate one for each troll. so getting 3 girls from 3 different trolls within a short period is not so unusual if you already had somewhat built up counters. additionally getting another one from the same troll within a few fights is just good luck. i had that 2 times myself. once with main (silvanus aswell) and once with alt (bremen).

regarding the change from timer to counter: it was stated in the patchnotes that they converted the built up timer to a counter and evenly split that amongst all trolls. so you probably had a good headstart on silvanus due to this if your prepatch timer was already close to 30 days. i had that myself and on all trolls still having girls left the first dropped pretty fast. only the 2nd girl (there were 3 trolls with 2 girls for me) needed significantly longer to drop.

Edited August 28, 2018 by Habi

[Skiron]

talking about unrevealed things like a pity timer/counter is always based on a very subjective perception,

so my apologies if im not getting yours totally right but...

it seems to me that you expect the pity counter to have a bigger impact, than it more likely has...

my personal theory is that you have (lets say f.e.) a basic 1% dropchance and then this is multiplied by something like (1 + o.oX), X counting the tries...

to my understanding a small timer-effect is the only way to explain, how some people spent hundreds of tries without a drop on a very unlucky streak...

in this example - and of course noone knows the real calculation -  you would improve from 1% to 1,5% after 50 tries...

a small effect like this (or even smaller) wouldnt need any decay rate...

and in the end it would be still just RNG luck or badluck... guess you were just lucky that day

[Hollo]

There's no practical way for you to test this. You'd need probably a hundred accounts just to have a decent sample size, and keep careful track of each one with no mistakes.

You have the "you fought a boss and won" thread, but no one's been tracking how long they've gone between trying a boss.

Meanwhile, I suspect it's as GeorgeMTO says: it's unlikely that Kinkoid would implement this without mentioning it.

 

[goderos]

I know the questions has been asked, but when this information was released with the community I (and like me many others) wasn't playing the game yet. How does the counter "officially" works? Is it shared within all bosses or you have a counter for each boss?

Let me say that I fought Edwarda and Silvanus countless times in a row, kobans refill included, and I wasn't so lucky. Today I am still missing one girl from Edwarda and two from Silvanus, whilst I am also farming Finlamecia (but I am not even half way through world 9) and I was lucky enough to get a girl at my first fight.

Thanks all!

[wertyu]

Each boss has there own counter now , but  at one time all the bosses used to share the one counter until they changed it a while back.

[Hollo]

This is all in the FAQ, btw. Adventures and Villains section IIRC.

(The only thing that probably isn't there is the history of drop rates.)

[fisticuz]

Just RNGesus at work. I never had any drops from the ninja boss until the summer event when I got the event girl and 2 of 3 regular boss girls within like 5 combat turns.

[Urist]

On 8/28/2018 at 12:52 AM, GeorgeMTO said:

I personally don't think there's any "decay" in there, the idea seems rather silly to me that Kinkoid would implement a pity timer, tell us about the pity timer, but fail to mention anywhere that it decays over time.

One minor flaw to your argument is that you say that Silvanus had no pity timer built up. When they switched away from the global pity timer to a boss based one, the current global bonus you had was split amongst all your other bosses. So unless you got a drop the final fight before that patch occurred, there's an (unknown) pity bonus there.

You don't also seem to consider the possibility of just being very lucky. I remember getting one girl off Gruntt after the change taking me several weeks of fighting (he had an event girl so even got to farm him during that), but then giving me the next one only a day or two later. Sometimes you just get lucky and get drops really close together.

It seems silly to me that kinkoid refuses to release any information at all on the pity counter or drop rates, and yet here we are, with people just having to guess at it. I'm well aware that my experience could be luck or coincidence, but I'm posting it in the hopes that someone with a similar experience, or an opposing experience, will share and we can learn something.

Anyway, regarding Silvanus' counter. Would my counter have been preserved after all these months? When I say I had a month and a half built up on Roko, I mean this past month and a half. I was inactive for maybe a month before that, and I had 2 months or so of farming Roko prior to that. I'm on the assumption that my counter on Roko was reduced to 0 after that inactivity. This may be untrue, and if I didn't lose my counter during my inactivity then I was just phenomenally unlucky on Roko.

 

On 8/28/2018 at 2:26 AM, Habi said:

your whole argumentation is based on a pity timer where it actually is a pity counter, a separate one for each troll. so getting 3 girls from 3 different trolls within a short period is not so unusual if you already had somewhat built up counters. additionally getting another one from the same troll within a few fights is just good luck. i had that 2 times myself. once with main (silvanus aswell) and once with alt (bremen).

regarding the change from timer to counter: it was stated in the patchnotes that they converted the built up timer to a counter and evenly split that amongst all trolls. so you probably had a good headstart on silvanus due to this if your prepatch timer was already close to 30 days. i had that myself and on all trolls still having girls left the first dropped pretty fast. only the 2nd girl (there were 3 trolls with 2 girls for me) needed significantly longer to drop.

Yes, I know it's a counter rather than a timer. Unfortunate word choice in my first post. My contention is that when the counter goes up it starts to decay based on time, perhaps an hourly or semi-hourly tick downward. But as Hollo said, there's no real way to test this. But now that my hypothesis is out there, at least, I hpe that if someone else notices something a bit unusual that could possibly re-enforce or refute my hypothesis they'll post it here. Because this is all we've got in trying to learn more about the drop rate and what affects it.

[goderos]

First of all, thanks to the answers to my questions.

If I can give a contribution, I can say I play pretty often during the day. I usually let 2-4 energy max reactivate before using them (thanks to whoever has invented mobiles). I think it might just be RNG honestly, otherwise Edwarda or Sylvanus should have dropped more to me. Or it could be that there is a decay but their drop rate is very low anyway. 

[Skiron]

1 hour ago, goderos said:

thanks to whoever has invented mobiles

Star Trek!

[fisticuz]

5 hours ago, Skiron said:

Star Trek!

Try playing HH on a tricorder

[Skiron]

11 hours ago, fisticuz said:

Try playing HH on a tricorder

i would say the little window in the middle right almost looks like the harem collection screen... Scotty, what are you doing?!

 

but back to topic:

before the last event i was farming Donatien for a looong while, had only one girl dropped very early on...

while the event i went back for Dark Lord first, luckily just for half a day, and 2-3 days back for Donatien til Arcana dropped...

then i went for sylvanus to have my chance for additional gift drops til the end of the event...

 

in your theory i should have had a nice bonus on Donatien pre-event, but wasted a lot of it while the event farming other bosses,

but going back to him today i had another drop within the first ten tries...

i would call this a good sign there is no decay...

[Urist]

Well, 3 days of regular combat point regeneration, then another refill and Venam drops. One more natural point, another refill and Mavin drops. Seriously. Without refills that would have been slightly less than 4 days worth of combat points for 2 girls from Roko. Even if my initial idea was wrong, there's gotta be something going on here.

Not that it matters to me anymore, since I have all the boss girls!

[Urist]

So I made a new account. with the intent of testing this hypothesis. I didn't spend kobans for refills on Dark Lord or Ninja Spy, I think their drop rates are so high by themselves that they're not worth testing. Once I got to Grunt I spent kobans until I got a girl. It took 9 refills. Granted these refills were only giving 18 points each, due to my lower level, but still. While this doesn't absolutely disprove my hypothesis, I feel it's sufficient enough that I'm no longer willing to invest my time to test it.

I'm still convinced that I somehow stumbled upon some unknown factor in my initial koban refill spree (perhaps even an unintended bug), but I haven't the faintest idea what it could be.

Edited September 7, 2018 by Urist