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Damn Event Pachinko...


TheBootyWarrior
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Here is the copy of my post on Nutaku forums(I know values on this version are different, so just resize them):

Okay, economist here, Looks like you guys could use some statistical probability math. here is how it looks:

Epic pachinko has 100% drop of a girl in 1 try for 900 kobans.

Event pachinko has 22,5% drop of a girl in 1 try for 300 kobans. Number is confirmed by developers themself.


Using Bernoulli trial formula I can prove that in 3 tries (so 3x300 kobans) you can get following result: 46% chance for no girl at all, 40% for one girl, 12% for 2 girls and 1,1% for 3 girls.

It's up to you do decide whether you want 1 girl for 900 kobans with epic pachinko or try your luck with event pachinko, however probability says it itself, epic pachinko is always superior choice unless you want to get particular girl that is on event roster. Still, long term plan should be farming kobans and eventually buying out all epic pachinko girls, so event girls end up in its pool during each event, as it allows you to buy one for 900. Sure, it will take long time, but I was able to farm enough kobans to buy out entire epic roster with over 2000 left.

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