JustVisitingReborn
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Posts posted by JustVisitingReborn
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2 minutes ago, Incubys said:
Yes hindsight can be a bitch if you spend 540 on the extra SL and you get the last shards quickly, but the odds are that you won't (not every time at least).
It makes no difference. @Liliat's assessment is based on the mathematical averages. On average, you will save 384 Koban every time you deploy this strategy. Sometime, the reality is that you'll save less, other times more, but on average it'll be 384.
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23 minutes ago, Liliat said:
With 4 booster, you should get to 88/100, which means the 5th boosters will give you 6 shards = 954 Kobans. It saves 384 Kobans on average.
You also have the additional SPs to carry over into whichever event you play next. Brutal though it is, I carried last month's MR SP to this month's MD and now have 10/11 left on a booster, which I'll carry over to this month's MR. Anything to pinch a few Koban while I'm running myself raw to pick-up those last few Mythics on the MR!
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38 minutes ago, Gartalgar said:
- 11'340 kobans, including the cost of the 4 SP (even I got at least one from a cumback contest)
No you didn't. CbC give out AM boosters not SP
You may have got one from the PoV if you bought the paid path.
It's also worthwhile to use an extra SP for the final drops, but it is relatively marginal.-
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I've picked-up Agate. Stats:
Total Kost (including 5xSP): 1266 Nutaku Kobans (7596 HH). This is the cheapest Mythic I've picked-up since Undercover Valentina.
765 Combativity used, 325 free (actual cost 2 Kobans for 3x50 play right at the start).
Drop rate was (for the sixth month in a row) below the average (7%) at 6.54%.
Along the way I picked up 36 MPs (drop 4.71%), 37 tickets (drop 4.84%) and 1640 gems (drop 10.72%). This is a notable increase in gems (which I don't mind given I find black hard to come by) and a notable decrease in orbs.
Overall drop rate across all Mythics: 11133 Combativity used for 709 drops = 6.37%
This month's Mythic was less popular than Succubus Abreal last month, but more popular than Druidada Titania. I took a screenshot with 3.5 hours to go:
Looking at the figures at a similar point for the last few months:
- Succubus Abreal was at 63k shards remaining
- Druiada Titania was at 95k
- Sugarmama Lupa's Mum was at 75k
- Lovebot Norou was at 46k
- Angelic Lenaelle was at 63kSo this leaves us with an interesting hint at a pattern - in the last 6 months, the least popular girls have been Mythics where this would be the 3rd of a particular Dominance. Lovebot Norou would be the exception to this potential pattern, but @holymolly's campaign for her may have influenced more people to go for her, or perhaps he simply embodies a more general view that LN is particularly appealing? Regardless, if this was to turn out to be a trend, that would suggest the decline in popularity of Mythics is likely to continue, or to plateau at best......
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Predictions for June's Mythic (starting with most likely imo):
- Eccentric (red) - There are only currently 2 Eccentric Mythics, so this would bring Eccentric in line with Dominant (black), Exhibitionist (green) and Sensual (blue) at 3. It is the Dominance that has gone longest without (12 months) making it well overdue. I expected Eccentric this month, but perhaps KK are in fact not keen to release a new Mythic of the same colour as the revival and last month was an abberation because they felt levelling Voyeur with the rest of the Mythics was a high priority.
- Physical (orange)/Submissive (White) - Physical's now due at 7 months since the last and Submissive not far behind at 6 and a new Mythic would only bring them up to 3.
- Playful (yellow)/Voyeur (purple) - Only been 3 months since we had the last Playful and a Voyeur last month, but again there are only 2, so another still maintains equilibrium. I'm no longer convinced that length of time since the last Mythic is necessarily a strong indicator for prediction, but I do feel that the number of released Mythics of any colour likely is. So the difference between the above 3 categories may be trivial.
- Dominant (black)/Sensual (blue)/Exhibitionist (green) - We had a Dominant this month, an Exhibitionist 2 months ago and Sensual five months ago. These are also the only Dominances with 3 Mythics so far. It seems very unlikely that they're going to turn up next month.
If I was to put my best guess out it would currently be:
- July - Eccentric (red)
- August - Physical (orange)
- September - Submissive (white)
- October - Playful (yellow)
- November - Voyeur (purple)
I'm already using the above to steer my strategy decisions and have started hoarding these gems accordingly to ensure that I have them available at the right times.-
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53 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:
That's a 5% drop rate, right?
1000 fights for 50 drops is 5% yes
That's brutal. Angelic Lenaelle clocked in at 4.98% for me and Norou was only slightly better at 5.59%. It really stings the resources when it happens! Acutally I haven't had an average+ drop level since Finalmecia! But so far so good with Agate - 42 shards so far for ~8%!!
And 100% - having her on the right type of gems makes a big difference. You gain 1.2-1.6k gems that are directly relevant to the girl you're picking-up. Makes the whole enterprise far more straight forward.
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58 minutes ago, Franka said:
This one seems extreme though. There'll be 16000 shards left in 7 minutes, less than 24 hours after launch.
It does seem high right now with Nutaku having more than 2 full drops less than 24h in, but we'll get a better idea towards the end of the event as we can compare the shards left to previous MDs.
It's a strong colour so the only guesses I could make with regard to why Agate may be less popular is this is the 3rd Dominant (black) Mythic, so maybe people either feel there's not a lot to gain or are tight for Dom gems or it may be that she's more petite in the chest and from what I can pick out from other popular Mythics (Finalmecia and Nike spring to mind) larger busts seem to evoke greater popularity. -
She's also double blessed (Dom/Aries) on Nutaku until the Blessing change on Monday for those who can afford to max her out straight away.
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10 minutes ago, Liliat said:
Once Bunna comes back, we'll know "for sure" how revivals will be handled. Fortunately, I already have her, so I won't be caught off-guard again (Like I was with Alexa), and I'll be able to prepare for Estelle.
Off topic, and out of curiosity - what are the gaps in your collection? I'm missing the first 5 (after I pick-up Radka and High Mage Arcana in the next few months). I'm going to start referring to them as the 'Final Five' for anyone who gets that reference 😛
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10 minutes ago, Ravi-Sama said:
You'd need to save double the kobans (20-24k kobans & 10 SP boosters (up to 30k total)) in anticipation of Nov 23rd (6 months away), when Alt. Finalmecia, and Angelic Lenaëlle would be paired together. It would be nice to know for sure, so that players could prepare.
I think it more likely that we'd end up with Alt.Finalmecia and Bunna again - restarting the cycle - rather than two that were release back-to-back. We can all predict when the girls after Nike will be revived at this point. We can't predict with confidence if/when we'll see the girls up to and including Nike again.
Either way they'd end up with a month where the new girl gets revived the same month she's released, but it'd take far longer to come about if the restart the cycle.-
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Nutaku - High Value Alert - Summer Geekette
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I've picked-up Nike. Stats:
Total Kost (including 5xSP): 1654 Nutaku Kobans (9924 HH).
887 Combativity used, 227 free (actual cost 16 Kobans for 2x50 play right at the start).
Drop rate was (for the sixth Mythic in a row) below the average (7%), though not the worst I've seen at 5.64%.
Along the way I picked up 52 MPs (drop 5.86%), 39 tickets (drop 4.4%) and 1480 gems (drop 8.34%).
All in all I'm not complaining despite the poor drop rate. I'd budgeted 1.8k Kobans for the event and came in 146 less than that. They'll be squirrelled away for Radka next month And I've also realised that, given there are no Combativity driven girl collecting events between now and the start of June, I can still engage my gem farming while saving the remaining half of my SP for next month's Mythic!
Edit - and that's the server just gone down for the Wed update. It probably wouldn't have been a problem, but I sure am glad I don't have to stress about being able to get the last few shards on the last release!-
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1 hour ago, DvDivXXX said:
Come on, man. We discussed this already. Don't feed them! Teach them how to feed. Or fish, whatever. ^^
I was heading to dinner!
59 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:But avoid Day One at all costs is always good advice (unless you enjoy having to throw away 48 extra kobans per batch of fights just to save a few clicks while stressing over the shard stash shrinking super fast, ofc ^^).
In all fairness, this is my first shot at a MR and I've found it no great problem to blast through 1-2 refills on single plays without wastage. I am being fairly paranoid about the MR though and don't want to risk not getting over the line later.
~250 fights down so far and sitting at <4.3% drop rate. *sigh* I've started just planning for a 5% drop rate.-
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9 minutes ago, Busana said:
I am torn, do I try to get Nike in these 2 days or wait for Radka's revival? Does anyone know when that might be?
23rd of June. And Radka's a stronger element.
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5 hours ago, Liliat said:
I think Pachinko Contest/CbC don't really conflict (not too much, at least), because the juiciest orbs aren't the same in each contest (MP for CbC; EP/GP10 for Daily and LC). So, spending tons of EP/GP10 for a double Daily/LC contest doesn't feel wasted, especially when you still have hundreds of MP in store.
I'm pushing for top 4 on the CbC Pachinko Mondays as I really need the gems right now. You just don't get enough MPs/week to hit that target, though I appreciated that's not the case with top 15. So I still burn GP10s for the CbC, meaning I have less for the day to day Pachinko DCs and the LC. I'm currently being very stingy with the EPs and waiting for DCs where the field is weak and picking off 1st with a load of EPs. It also means I'm having to ignore the Pachinko DC on those months where I'm chasing the MR (May, June and August) as I need to hold the EPs back for the 2nd day of the LC.
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Meant to be. I open Stairway to Heaven the same day as Nike's revival:
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9 hours ago, Liliat said:
once you get 100 (claimed or unclaimed) shards, you don't get shards anymore.
An interesting nuance .
9 hours ago, Liliat said:I probably won't make it Top 4 today either; I spent a lot of GXP recently to reach lvl 700. Top 10/MPx3 might be doable however, so I'll definitely aim for that.
GXP comps have become very tough to navigate imo. I see the CbC as so valuable that I won't engage any Awakenings (if possible) outside of the Tue-Wed CbC. That creates two restrictions on GXP comps: i) For girls only one Awakening away from max, I Awaken them during the CbC and then wait for a GXP comp (unless I need them for the next league Blessings, in which case I ensure they're ready for the start of the week and ii) for girls starting from further down, I have to spend the GXP during the CbC to move through the Awakening levels. That really locks down the available GXP spend on any given compKinda makes the last day of the LC a write-off.
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Others have pointed this out already, and I know this is the key mechanic that allows KK to monetise the feature, but there's simply no way I'm laying out 1/6k Koban to pick-up an old LC girl.
There was a point in time when these grils were important, but there's been such an increase in the number of L5*s that are being released that market saturation has totally devalued them. When I can pick-up an L5* for free from the Leagues, the LC, BB, CC, how does LD or indeed the paid path for PoG reconcile with the cost? I'm getting 3-4 of these girls free every month! And that doesn't consider the impact that the swelling ranks of Mythics have on the value of L5*s. 1k Kobans is ~2/3s of a Mythic!!
I'm not criticising the feature overall - I think it looks great and provides more free resources But I do think there's a stark disparity developing in how KK are approaching L5 girls. You can't give so many of them away for free then expect players to want to lay out significant amounts of (in game) currency to pick-up others. There would need to be some in game mechanic to make these girls specifically desirable before this starts to look worthwhile. I have something in mind, but I don't want to say it because it'd be bad for players overall lol.
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On 5/21/2022 at 12:05 PM, Liliat said:
(I wouldn't get MPx6 orbs anyway, since I don't have the girl yet).
I experimented with this today. As the first MR I'm going for starts tomorrow I didn't buy the PoV bonus path this month. Consequently I couldn't pick-up the LC girl on the first day for the first time in a long time. 50 shards day 1. 25 shards day 2. 50 shards day 3. I claimed the 2x50 shards, exited and re-entered Activities, and just like with the CbC I got the orb reward rather than the 25 additional shards. So if you do find yourself with a couple of 50s and a 100, you could put some thought into which claim order gives you the best return.
Perhaps everyone already knows this and tbh I don't see it as that useful as I just don't want to spend resources on LC when we have the CbC that are just so much better, but thought I'd share incase you found the info useful.-
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8 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:
Even though I barely visit discord and don't chat there often these days, I'm a bit jealous.
I want JvRrrr in my contacts as well, dammit! 
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I'm the same as you - I'm using Discord as a conduit for hooking up with folks like @holymolly @Rarum and @45026831 for different projects that they're stearing. I wouldn't have it open other than that reason. I never post there. But if you want to ping me there you know my handle and I'll pick it up. Likewise, I would like to have another channel of communiation
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8 hours ago, holymolly said:
Idk what I´m allowed to say but noacc asked me about it and I thought that some of the forum regulars( you guys f.e.) would be a good fit so ^^... maybe contact me on discord if you´re interested in more info
Sent you a message on discord - username rrr
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2 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:
Note: EN Wiki is dead, and the FR Wiki is impractical as hell to look up for girls, so I won't provide direct links anymore for the time being. I'm doing in-game searches instead (pretty tedious, but oh well).
Is this a permanent thing? I'd figured there were just some server issues.....
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7 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:
Come to think of it, with a name like Red Battler how did they even consider another color than Red for her element?
They prioritised narrative. So the Battler part of the name put her in Physical (orange)
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2 hours ago, Kenrae said:
No. It gives them better odds at being in the top 7, but not that much compared to other mythics (best is at 27.41% and worse is at 23.87%, that's not a huge difference). That's something that will come in play once in a while, class is ALWAYS in play.
The best will turn up in the top 7 ~14.8% more often than the worst. That's an extra time for every 6ish times the worst turns up. That's more significant than the 3.54% difference between the two figures might seem.
Not necessarily disagreeing, just pointing out that the figures aren't necessarily intuitive in nature.
2 hours ago, Attirm said:While I think it's an amazing resource, I do recommend taking that particular tab on Zoopokemon's spreadsheet with a grain of salt. The way it's set up is all-or-nothing for top 7. A girl whose qualities frequently put her in top 15 but fall short of top 7 will be severely underrated on that tab. This is important because most people don't use the top 7, they're using the top 30. Even if you have a relatively complete harem (very few people do) you won't have every girl at maximum level ready for inclusion in your battle team, and will have to be making considerations based on elements. This means that we're frequently using girls that aren't strictly "optimal", but they are the best options given our own lineup. The unblessed stats tab doesn't really take this into account well, and underrates girls like Mizuki with low base stats but double colors (who are unlikely to be the best option on any given week, but very likely to be a good option that can cover a lot of different weeks).
This tab also over-values L5*s and under-values Mythics as it counts all Top 7s as equal. Zazie may have an 11.57% chance of appearing in the Top 7 and Royal Housemaid may have a 23.87% chance, making it appear that Zazie is just short of half as valuable as Royal Housemaid, but if Royal Housemaid is going to be in the Top 3 most of the times she's in the Top 7 while Zazie is like to appear 5-7 most of the time, the % of times they appear in the Top 7 isn't comparing apples to apples. Mythics are far more likely to place higher in the Top 7 when they are there.
Again I'm not criticising the resource here - it's far better than I could do and I use this tab in a lot of different ways - just highlighting some practical considertions that should be taken into account.-
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[ 03-Jun-22 ] Mythic Days - Discussion
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by JustVisitingReborn
Sometimes I place a bet on a Roulette table with a 00 and win. Doesn't mean that it was more likely to win than the same bet on a single 0 wheel.
My point was that - exasperation with individual results aside - players collectively are better off in the long run using the additional SP. The cost of the additional SP is smaller than the average saving from using it. And that does not include the effectively 'free' benefit of using the rest of the SP on another event.