Hollo

Not great, but that's to be expected on a 5+2 day event. I need both Deitra and Justine. 70 tries on Edwarda so far. I'm considering spending kobans, though I probably shouldn't. (I figure spending any less than 5k on one to be a discount, but the math is a bit different for event girls. If they had a pity bonus of any sort, this would be instantly easier. As it is, either way, I could theoretically be strung along forever...) Hopefully I'll get at least one. If so, I won't feel too bad about having to wait a presumed year to try for the other.

I'm not sure why you don't agree. XP gain per fight is halved, but the number of fights has doubled. You'll get the same XP overall if you do all the fights. ...Well, somewhat less, since the number of fights is about 17% less than double. It might be nice if Kinkoid bumped the league XP up a tad to compensate. Also very glad I can sleep a full eight hours now. Looks like I'm going to have to pick and choose my last fights in the next couple days, though. I won't finish all 297 without a refill, which I think would be literally pointless.

If it helps, I can tell you that it took me 108 and 359 battles to get Lola and Pelagie respectively. (Kelina came over before I started keeping count.)

If you must know, #69 for me was Lola. I am happy about this.

Just had my first upset, and then another one, meaning I'm now 4 points below optimal. Ho hum. Still third, but barely hanging on to it.

What Chthugha said. Selection bias is going to be a bitch. People sometimes post when they got a drop early; they sometimes post when they got no drop at all. In both cases, the motivations are slightly different. You might count on posts from people who like to post here a lot, but that isn't necessarily a good sample, since both announcements aren't really dispassionate. The posts in the "You got a girl" thread are probably somewhat more reliable, since people are just trying to post raw numbers. To those who got caught by the end date, thinking the event would run all the way through, my advice is to either check the discord, where players often observe how many hours are left, or to be even more reliable, check the time remaining on epic pachinko. It'll show the exact number of hours, and should always coincide with the event girls going away.

Bittersweet result for me. I got rushed at the end, due to having stuff to do today, so I couldn't put as many kobans in as I'd earmarked for this. I had been alternating Finalmecia and Bremen for Katharina and Treasure, with a few every so often on Silvanus for the odd chance at Sailor Celsius (and 2 boss girls I hadn't yet gotten). In the final hour, I figured I could spend up to about 5000 on each and still come out ahead, right? Well, I went about 2300 kobans on Final when she gave up Zoe - the final boss girl I needed from her. Amusingly, the previous two had taken around 1300+ fights apiece, and here comes Zoe after a total of only about 200 additional tries. Trouble is, at that point, I'd be putting in kobans solely to get Kat, with no greater chance than on the previous 11 refills. So, I turned to Bremen. 12 refills (~2500 kobans) later, Bremen gives up Stephanie. 3 refills after that, I had to give up for lack of time. Overall, I'd dumped about 5500 kobans total - about what I'd need for a guaranteed epic - with no epic girls to show for it. Epic Days passed with zero epics for me. There's only a bit of silver lining here. One was two boss drops - cold comfort, since I'd planned to get them anyway, and I was just trading kobans for time. The second was the other thing I got in return for those 5500 kobans: about 15 million in cash. Which turned out to be much more than I needed to get my fifth star on Fanny and Fiore. So now I'm pretty turbocharged PvP-wise. Which also helps in the league. With zero legendary charm equipment, this is a big deal. Still wish I had at least one epic girl to show for it, but I guess I have to take it. I'd really like to see more Epic Days events in the future even so - I figure my luck is likely to change.

Slipped to fourth place. I lost about an hour today, I think, between that errand and a party. But I think someone kobaned their way up anyway. However, I'm taking a detour from chewing down the 100-150 crowd in my league to take on some of the 250+ that I can now beat, thanks to my brand new 5* Fanny! Probably at least three days away from us all hitting the tough fights.

I'll let you know in... 18 more girls.

Event FAIL - level 255 - 82 girls - Finalmecia (level 260) - 263 battles - 23 boss girls - Katharina - koban refills: 11 (~2329 kob, 206 fights) Event FAIL - level 255 - 82 girls - Bremen (level 210) - 411 battles - 23 boss girls - Treasure - koban refills: 15 (~3238 kob, 298 fights) Event FAIL - level 253 - 82 girls - Silvanus (level 170) - 14 battles - 23 boss girls - Sailor Celsius Boss - level 255 - 80 girls - Finalmecia (level 260) - 206 battles - 21 boss girls - Zoe Boss - level 255 - 81 girls - Bremen (level 210) - 351 battles - 22 boss girls - Stephanie

I normally would have said not until the next league begins, but, yeah, that screenshot... maybe they do pop in immediately. I seem to be solid #3 in my league now. The guy who usually ties me lost one, so as long as we're both using all our points, I should still stay ahead of him until the end and I'm forced to battle more difficult opponents. And then, we'll see. The big question for me is whether I'll catch up to the current 1 and 2. I actually lost a few minutes this morning - took a little long to get back from an errand. Hope that doesn't bite me later.

As predicted, I'm done with the 200+ players in my league, aside from about 7 that are strong enough that I want to set them aside until the end. Working on 150-199 now. They're all shoe-ins, and should take me until Saturday morning to chew through. I'm tied for 4th with a guy who seems dedicated enough that I'll be tied for the entire season. We'll probably both overtake 1-3 near the end, when they run out of opponents. (Hope you enjoyed your refills, guys...) Right now, I lose the tiebreaker to this guy, but I strongly suspect I'll have enough money within the next few days to get Fanny and Fiore their fifth star and allow me to beat opponents he can't. He could get his fifth star for Levitya, but his gear is suboptimal.

It's fair in the long term, but you'll need to think long term. If someone has a 1/10 chance to beat you, then you'll come out ahead if 9 of your wins gets you more mojo than 1 loss. (If you don't care about mojo, then you may as well play every match, since mojo is the only thing you'll lose.) The trick is figuring out what the actual chance of a loss is. That will require knowing the chance of N crits for each of you, and the impact of a crit. If you do 500 more per attack than he does, but he has a 30% chance of a crit that doubles his attack, and each attack is doing 20000, then that's 20k more of your ego gone, and you'd need 40 more back-and-forths to make that up, if he crits. (Most fights never last that long, so one crit from him and zero from you means you'll lose.) OTOH, if you crit too, and your crits also double attacks, then that's 20.5k more of his ego gone, and you're back to being ahead. But if you're charm, then your crits don't do that much, and... well, you can see how this can get complicated. I usually just eyeball it and figure out what will happen if he crits once and I crit never, and if that means I lose, I quickly multiply the chance of him pulling that off by my mojo loss if he does, and compare that to the product of the chance of him not doing that and the mojo I'd win. It takes me a lot less time to do it than to describe it here.

19 tries on Final, 50 on Bremen. And 10 on Silvanus. Nothing yet. Hopefully all these girls have equal chances, or else I've been focusing incorrectly. The gutkicker here is that the last day is Saturday, and I'm hoping to go to parties and such. So I might do a koban push that morning or something.

Technically not Disney, but very close - creator Don Bluth was ex-Disney. And based her partly on a coworker's Playboys.

My main reason for working down in order of level is to front load all the XP I expect to get. Higher level means higher stats I can get by pumping, and higher level item drops.

And since there's supposedly no pity bonus for events, you could also alternately go for all six round robin style, if you like all six, and just get whatever you get.

Day 3. I've chewed up everyone above level 250 that I'm sure I can beat, so now I'm working down the 200-250 crowd. There's a fair number of them; should be done with them by about this time tomorrow. At this rate, I'll have a perfect record for nearly the entire period. There seem to be three opponents I'm fairly sure I'll never get a win on, and three more that are about 50-50. Another interesting thing are the 0s. A full 40 people in my league have never fought; they've either quit the game or are simply uninterested in leagues (or are somehow unaware of them), and one of them is well ahead of me in stats, which is puzzling. And then there are about seven with 1-17 points. I keep wondering what their story is.

That said, I'd still keep multi-stat purple gear, juuust in case Kinkoid decides to jigger the combat system again...

It's not really charity for long. Your reward for crushing your league is to get bumped up to one where everyone crushed their league, and eventually there will be only one who gets to keep doing this, and then only if they keep diligently logging in. The rewards for winning are great, but only every two weeks. And in the end, it might not even be a sure thing; RNG might dominate. The former.

You can play each of them 3 times, so you have to fight 300 matches. Actually, 297, since you don't fight yourself. That's 39 hours of slack you have, which actually turns out to be pretty tight. If you waste three hours a night (because you slept eight and so the last three tokens were lost), that's 3*14 = 42 tokens lost. Check upthread for a post I made with more about this.

A few of us were talking on Discord, and noticed something interesting about the math. (Apologies if all this was hashed out on the test server; I'm just now noticing all this.) One question is whether the bottleneck, at least for now, will be challenge tokens, or opponents. You get one token per hour, max of 5, which means people will be sleeping or working through some of them. OTOH, you have 99 opponents in the current league, and can fight each one 3 times, for a total of 297. You get a theoretical max of 14 * 24 = 336 tokens. That's not much room for slippage. If you're up 16 hours a day, that's only 224 tokens, plus the extra 4/day stored up when you get up in the morning: 280. However, you might skip whoever's likely to beat you, so you might not need to every single token to reach your peak in your league. However again: later leagues might be larger, so maybe you do. -- Meanwhile, I imagine the highest league eventually being populated with 200-somethings, all farming each other for XP, but with some odd pecking order that's mostly dominated by RNG. Bottom 15 will drop down to next highest league, which will be seen as winning the lottery, since those will now farm nearly everyone below them, racking up huge numbers, and now hoping to do just under #15 so they can stay in that league. But the more that happens, the more the highest league will keep evaporating until the top league folds into the second, minus some unlucky 15 who keep getting popped up into first. That crowd might be random enough that anyone getting there now has a decent chance of getting first place, plus significantly greater rewards, which means the second leaguers will want to get back in there, until there's some sort of weird equilibrium. It'll be interesting.

Ha! Yeah, as soon as I saw her, I thought of how I might possibly manage it. Not without a lot of mods, I think. Or really, just one - a conical tentacle, colorable and poseable.

Tied for 10th, 30 points (5 victories, natch). Once I got the hang of what was going on, I'm now trying to take on the highest level opponents I can still confidently beat, in order to milk XP while still getting max points. ETA: One thing I'm noticing that wasn't in the FAQ: I have one "W" showing on each opponent I beat so far. I'm guessing I can challenge any one opponent up to 3 times per league period, and I assume that's to avoid abuse. Clever.

You know, I literally had her in the first draft post, and then decided I didn't want to stir the pot that much.