Changes in drop rates

[Balphore]

Hi everyone ! 

I just wanted to know if anyone else had noticed a huge decrease in shards drop rates lately ? For the current event, I'm farming Nemah and droped only 86/100 shards on more than 400 fights.

I think it's getting ridiculously hard to get event girls, even the non mythic ones.

[Kenrae]

No, I haven't. That's a normal variance between different events.

[jelom]

the usual drop rates are between 150 and 300 battles in classic events, but if drop rate and also the shards per drop are lower than average it is possible although rare to have a really bad run as yours.

[DvDivXXX]

Yop, keep in mind there's the drop rate (~10%) and then there's the drop range (2-8 shards per drop in this case). You only seem to be counting how many shards you get in how many fights, but that doesn't tell the whole story. In 400 fights, you can expect about 40 drops, give or take (but it can easily be 30 instead due to variance in that alone). Now, 40 drops could give you as much as 320 shards (in theory ^^) or as little as 80 shards, because each drop randomly gives 2 or 3 or 4... or 8 shards. And bear in mind, the minimum drop used to be 1 instead for the longest time (and it still is for all other events of this type, except Classic). Which means a year or so ago before it was buffed, it was possible to get as few as 40 shards in 400 fights, with very bad luck.

But since you don't differentiate between how many times you get a drop (the drop rate) and how much each drop gives you (the drop range), you're not even measuring your drop rate. What you call your drop rate is just a rough approximation of two different RNG factors combined in your own specific sample. So you wouldn't be able to notice a change in drop rate this way even if your sample was big enough to be statistically relevant (you're a few thousands short of that).