Assassin_RP Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 Hello! I'm new to the Haremverse ... And I had high expectations with playing my first event, in the description of the Event Pachinko it says very clearly that ... there are 4 games in which you get 3 legendary items "and" a high probability of an event girl or an avatar of event. I have already spent 3600 Kobans and have only gotten pure items on them. He's not supposed to have at least gotten an event avatar or some girl with ... "the high probability" he says he offers. It wouldn't bother me that if I had gotten 2 event avatars ... but ... I didn't get anything that I am supposed to have hoped for having spent quite a few Kobans. I demand an explanation from the Moderators if it is a translation or game bug and that at the very least ... they can fix this disturbing problem for anyone who wants to try their luck without being disappointed ... by a bad description. I want my Kobans back from so many wasted efforts or at least give me an event girl. And they can correct this problem for future players who really hope to win something with this modality of Pachinko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Slynia Posted January 2, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 2, 2021 This post is more feedback than a bug report, so I will move this to the correct place. If I remember correctly, the high chance for an event girl in the Event Pachinko is about ~20%, so 1 in every 5 spins should by chance give you a girl. This means that you need to spend 9000 kobans (in Hentai Heroes) on average for a girl. It's in other words not recommended to play the Event Pachinko, and just stick to the Epic Pachinko instead if you truly have to spend kobans in any of the Pachinkos that is. Of course, you could get lucky in the Event Pachinko and get a girl in just 1 spin, however, in the long run you'll probably end up spending more in the Event Pachinko than you would've done in the Epic Pachinko. So, playing in the Event Pachinko is truly a gamble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 (edited) Just to get the calculations over with (and to remind our dear mod Slynia again what the actual percentage is)... It's 22.5%. So it's 8k kobans on average for a girl using the event pachinko. My old files from when the event pachinko was introduced, suggest a drop rate for the avatars of 22.5% as well (estimate from testing it out on the test server). You can only get 1 girl and/or 1 avatar per spin, so you will at least get 2 items. Getting a girl and getting an avatar seem to be independent results when looking at my data. So that means that the result of not getting either is 0.775×0.775=0.600625 or 60.0625%. Getting either an avatar or a girl but not the other both have a chance of 0.225×0.775=0.174375 (17.4375%) and getting both has a chance of 0.050625 (5.0625%). So when you do 2 spins, the chance of getting neither a girl or an avatar in both spins is simply 0.600625×0.600625, which is about 36%. So by all means, that's still a very likely outcome. Anyway, the event pachinko description is false in a couple of ways. 1. You can get a girl AND a girl, so that statement is false. 2. Because you can get both, it makes the "at least 3 legendary items" false. However, I think this has to do with the situation on Nutaku. There are no avatars there at all. The text there simply states: "4 games" option gives a high chance for 1 Event Girl and guarantees 3 Legendary Items. The text on HH seems to be mostly a copy paste job with one modification that waa never checked on accuracy. Lastly; whether or not 22.5% is a high chance is a debate that has been around since the start. Personally I like to look at the implications. In this case those are that event pachinko is not worth it, UNLESS you still have a huge pool of permanent girls in the epic pachinko and the event offers a girl you feel you absolutely must have. But even in that case patience might be the best option. Edited January 2, 2021 by Chthugha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assassin_RP Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 Thanks for the answers ... But ... I was hoping with the Pachinko description of the Event to get a girl or a new profile avatar. As it says verbatim in the game ... I guess ... open my Kobans spent in vain ... ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assassin_RP Posted January 2, 2021 Author Share Posted January 2, 2021 If it had been in the Description very clearly that you have 4 games in which you can get a girl from the event, instead of emphasizing that you have to win a girl or an avartar and split the 3 items. I wouldn't have used or saved so many Kobans for this ... ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 @Assassin_RP If you are new to the game and had doubts about any of the features, you should have asked in the forum BEFORE doing anything, especially if it involves spending a great amount of kobans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tovaras Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 (edited) technically the problem does lie with the game... because if they say "high" chance, that means that the chances of getting a girl is higher than the chances of not getting one, so the probability of getting a girl should be at least more than 50% because only 2 variables can be inferred (getting a girl and not getting a girl) if one of the variables is to be considered high, then the other one has to be lower and be considered low, being the less probable of the 2. so if the probability of getting a girl is considered high, then it's probability will have to be higher than than of not getting a girl. Edited January 2, 2021 by tovaras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 (edited) 28 minutes ago, tovaras said: technically the problem does lie with the game... because if they say "high" chance, that means that the chances of getting a girl is higher than the chances of not getting one, so the probability of getting a girl should be at least more than 50% because only 2 variables can be inferred (getting a girl and not getting a girl) if one of the variables is to be considered high, then the other one has to be lower and be considered low, being the less probable of the 2. so if the probability of getting a girl is considered high, then it's probability will have to be higher than than of not getting a girl. Hah, good joke. No, high refers to the chance compared to other pachinko games. In this case it refers to the chance of getting a girl from a single epic pachinko spin (which was the only comparison at the time of the introduction of the event pachinko). And compared to that, it certainly is a high chance. High chance (p) never refers to its counterpart (1-p). That's just something you decided on to make it look like you made a great point. Edited January 2, 2021 by Chthugha typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tovaras Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 35 minutes ago, Chthugha said: In this case it refers to the chance of getting a girl from a single epic pachinko spin (which was the only comparison at the time of the introduction of the event pachinko). And compared to that, it certainly is a high chance. High chance (p) never refers to its counterpart (1-p). That's just something you decided on to make it look like you made a great point. well they didn't specify what it was "high" relative to. and if they didn't state that it was high relative to 1* epic, there is no reason for you to assume so. because no other variable was stated, the only other variable that could exist would be (1-p) something can only be considered relatively "high" when compared to something else within the same reference frame. and if no other variable is stated, then the only thing p can be considered high relative to is 1-p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_shal_ Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 The reference frame that you're either not aware of or willfully ignoring (considering you were already playing the game at the time) is that the event girls were removed from the Epic Pachinko initially when the Event Pachinko was created. So it was quite clear that the intended meaning of the description was "the price is higher than it used to be [1800 instead of 540], but the drop probability is also 'high' compared to what it was before". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tovaras Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 yeah so... there is clearly a big difference between what you think it is supposed to be and what they actually say it is supposed to be. therefore the problem does lie with the game because they did not make the description accurate to what it actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tovaras Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 (edited) the thing is that they can't just expect people to create their own variables in order to justify the probability of getting a girl being relatively high. If they don't define any other variable other than getting a girl, then there is only one other variable (1-p) and it's probability has to be lower than that of getting a girl in order for the probability of getting a girl to be considered relatively high. "high" is relative, any finite number can only be considered as high when compared to another number. so if a probability is considered high, it has to be stated what it is higher than. if nothing is stated it has to mean that it is relatively higher than the only other variable in the equation. Edited January 3, 2021 by tovaras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted January 3, 2021 Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 hours ago, tovaras said: the thing is that they can't just expect people to create their own variables in order to justify the probability of getting a girl being relatively high. If they don't define any other variable other than getting a girl, then there is only one other variable (1-p) and it's probability has to be lower than that of getting a girl in order for the probability of getting a girl to be considered relatively high. "high" is relative, any finite number can only be considered as high when compared to another number. so if a probability is considered high, it has to be stated what it is higher than. if nothing is stated it has to mean that it is relatively higher than the only other variable in the equation. So just checking, if there's a 49% chance that your next post on this wilful ignorance gets you banned, that's not a high chance? Good to know, rest assured you don't have a high chance of being banned for trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tovaras Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 (edited) 36 minutes ago, GeorgeMTO said: So just checking, if there's a 49% chance that your next post on this wilful ignorance gets you banned, that's not a high chance? again, high relative to what? if it's 49% chance of getting banned, that means that it's 51% chance of not getting banned, therefore no, the chances of getting banned is considered relatively low. this part of your reply alone is ignorance. what I said isn't ignorance, I simply did not consider variables because they did not state that those variables should be used. Edited January 4, 2021 by tovaras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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