Moons Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 I got Grunt up to level 43 and not a single girl has dropped. What’s all of your expirence been like after the new update? Any luck? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCanon Posted February 9, 2018 Share Posted February 9, 2018 i've easily done more than 100 battles without a girl drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don23 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Ever since the update nothing dropped for me either. And I certainly haven't missed a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trunks2585 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 (edited) Not trying to take the devs side or anything. But all they ever said was 'things have been adjusted accordingly'. Which probably just means they maintained the low drop rate and kept it form being abysmal to terrible. Several of us already got the event drops, so the next event will be the real test on drop rates. Here's an idea though. Anyone wanna make a new profile to test out drop rates on a fresh account? Edited February 10, 2018 by trunks2585 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PainPL Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I got Bremen now on 104 lvl and still no drop from him and i miss 2 girls (1 had from epic pachinko) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ku Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I lack 1 girl of the event, and I have 0 falls counting a day before from the patch. But having fewer attempts really is effective that increase that do they say they've done? Although they haven't said they've up drop rate just "recalculated" it's quite different Here is no excuse to go to make arena to compensate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[CNO] BananaJoy Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 yes drop rate still is terrible and it seems nothing has changed so far. my guess for event girls before patch was drop rate of 0,1-0,5% so even if its double now (and i am pretty sure that they wont do that) it doesnt matter because the numbers r just to small that can u feel any differecne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bane Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 46 minutes ago, trunks2585 said: Here's an idea though. Anyone wanna make a new profile to test out drop rates on a fresh account? I got girl drop just before patch so im pretty much starting from 0 increase on girl drops. So far after 140 fights against Edwarda 0 girls drop. Even if base rate of increase is 0.1 after failure to get girl (dont know exact increase, just using 0.1 as example) then every 10 fights would increase drop rate by 1% meaning 3 weeks of fighting till guaranteed drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Took Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3 hours ago, Moons said: I got Grunt up to level 43 and not a single girl has dropped. What’s all of your expirence been like after the new update? Any luck? Since the update, zero in all my games. The best luck I had was getting Virginia and Bass in Epic Pachinko - separate games however. I'm more certain than ever that the probability algorithm has been adjusted. There is a gambling myth (statistically erroneous) that increasing the opportunity for drops (ie 1 1/2 more chances per round) increases the probability of having a drop happen. This is not correct and the word 'probability' is important here; the probability is the same for each win in the battle because, in most games of chance, the system resets each play. It doesn't somehow remember how many battles we had without a drop and then take pity on us by increasing our chances. I mentioned this because I suspect the game developers might have halved the probability of a drop in a misguided belief (or more likely a spin to us gullible fools) that this is in adjustment for the fact that we now have twice as many opportunities per round (20/20 as opposed to 10/20 before the patch). But then, too, the recharge rate for each unit of combativity has not increased to 20min, rather 30min, diddling us out of available time to do battle. Having said all that, I have very patchy luck in this game; some events great success (over most of my accounts), or abysmal failure to have any drops take place at all (even event girls). However, it does seem a coincidence, doesn't it, that I was ticking along quite nicely before the patch only to hit a brick wall since. Yes, I believe something external to my luck has happened this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisterCat Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I'm with everyone else. No drops since updates. Not sure if I think it's a bug or just the devs trying to squeeze more money out of me. Either way it doesn't make for a fun experience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Took Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 The good news is I'm starting to get back to the land of the living and interacting with other people again instead of being stuck in this game like some pathetic addict! With the changes, I initially thought they were an improvement and I was widely accused as being an apologist for HH. Now I'm far less sure. Indeed, I think some important aspects of the game have diminished in enjoyment. Re. drops not happening, I don't think it's a bug. As I had said, I think the probability algorithm has been altered to lower our chances of having a girl drop at each victory. Just because we have 1 1/2 times more opportunities per 20 combativity units than before over a set time period, doesn't improve our chances, even if we like to think so. I think the game developers have lowered the probability to reflect the belief that we have more battles per hour against the trolls and, thus, our chances of a drop have fallen accordingly. I know I'm speculating here, but it sure feels like it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Took Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 As soon as this game heads towards the 'loot box' approach of many online gambling games I'm outta here! These are potentially extremely dangerous psychologically, financially, to one's family members and to the wider community and I had warned HH not to go down this route. Once there is a certain tipping point of players, there might be a big temptation for HH to alter the game to encourage players to use their credit cards to purchase kobans for more turns, Epic Pachinko and to restock the shop, and to become patreons. Other online games with a gambling component have done just that. Initially, in these games, it is encouragingly easy to win items, but they become harder and harder unless and until we purchase the next great 'must-have'. The other rather unscrupulous thing that the gaming businesses peddle is the myth that increasing the number of turns we have to win something somehow increases our chances of success. It doesn't. The chance each play is dependent on the probability percentage that is designed into the game and this is reset at each play. There is no counter telling the program that we have played X times without success, therefore it will incrementally increase our chance of winning in some grand act of generosity. HH is a business, after all, and has to make money. There would have to be a specific mathematical calculation the program makes to allow such an adjustment. HH claim that this very thing has just been introduced in this latest patch, but I remain sceptical. At least with HH we know that as we acquire more girls the drop rate falls and upgrading them becomes incrementally more expensive for each girl as they are added to our harems. They've been upfront with us about that. What we don't know are the details of the drop rates, the actual probability of drops (in percentage) and how this changes as the game progresses. I'm not sure they would ever tell us that since they would see it as a spoiler. Now we have a truly arcane system for arena battles that most of us probably wouldn't have a hope of understanding; I sure don't! I detest the almost compulsory aspect to the choice of opponents in the arena, especially the fact that opponents no longer reflect our rank and seem more randomly selected, mostly not in our favour. The 30 minute refresh time to battle new opponents is pointless, other than the fact that there is no longer any other fixed or variable constraint for these battles (ie, no expenditure of combativity and recharge rate for that). If we lose against an opponent, why can't we choose to battle him again straight away, especially if we lost because of bad luck from critical damage? How many of us have had this happen!? It would be better, too, if the refresh was every 10 minutes with unlimited opportunities to battle opponents against whom we lost. However, to give credit where it's due, some changes have been generous... (1) In the daily missions, there are many more gift items as rewards, even above the lvl 101 threshold (even money rewards have doubled for those at higher levels). Furthermore, some of these items are epic items and I even had the odd legendary item offered. There also seem to be more legendary gift items dropped in Epic Pachinko, as I found in the last two hours. Once it was overwhelmingly equipment items that may or may not have been useful. (2) the epic books are not horrendously expensive to buy and they allow us to level up new girls' XP relatively quickly, useful if that new girl is a potential alpha or beta girl. (3) Although many of us (me included) have been moaning about the loss rate in arena battles, a few rounds of Epic Pachinko and drops of valuable equipment (especially multiple-valued legendary items), girls and gifts should help a whole lot, especially for players starting out (up to level 80 and past the extortionate Juy Sea anyway). The other thing about this is that the arena battles make us think hard about how we can improve our teams, especially giving a lot more importance to beta and omega girls who can contribute mightily to the game at the first and second orgasms (the usual situation in close-fought battles). On many occasions I have snatched victory from the jaws of certain defeat because my beta and omega girls have been better than my opponents'. Re. critical damage, there is little we can do about this as a lucky killer blow against us by an opponent is a random thing, which is why we ought to be given the chance straight away to battle those opponents who beat us in this way. I can't think of any equipment upgrade we could do to counter this, other than to raise our own critical damage percentages with the right equipment and boosters. I was trounced on three occasions now against opponents I should have beaten easily (and would normally have done so), even at 25% critical damage stats. Sustaining critical damage seems to be a lot more common now than before, lending weight to my contention that we ought to be able to try again against evenly or lower matched opponents who have beaten us. We have every chance of beating him the second time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRSTRONGDONG Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 (edited) Okay, I thought I was alone getting suspicious that I hadn't gotten a drop since the beginning of the update. The last girl drop I got was Loving Lupa, and that was 7 days ago. In that time, I've leveled Edwarda from 30 or 35 (can't remember) to where she is now at 56, which is about 147-182 fights. Since fights are 48 instead of 72 per 24 hours now, I don't think I've been on a dry spell for that long before. I was getting concerned that something was broken or something... I hope HH starts to look into the negative feedback of their patch and responds to their users/customers... Edited February 10, 2018 by DRSTRONGDONG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svante Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I think the drop rate did not change a lot. Some people get girls some do not. It is like before but now you have something to blame and a point where to look back. I used all my battle points since the patch and did not get a sigle drop. I got both event girls before the patch. But I think that does not prove or show anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nupraptortwo Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 Soo... maybe I am the only lucky guy. I got Edna from Finalmecia yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Took Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Svante said: I think the drop rate did not change a lot. Some people get girls some do not. It is like before but now you have something to blame and a point where to look back. I used all my battle points since the patch and did not get a sigle drop. I got both event girls before the patch. But I think that does not prove or show anything. No it doesn't, but it's very suspicious. I've never had such a dramatic change in fortune with a patch upgrade since I started playing (not this account) nearly 7 months ago now. Other players have reported the same. My own fortunes have always been patchy, usually event to event, but nothing like this halfway through an event. I don't think we're ever going to know the truth. The developers did notify that they have adjusted the drop rate in some aspects of the game supposedly to make it fairer for those who have been in the game a long time, but it might have had the opposite effect across the board. I have a game where I'm level 184 and one where I'm level 63 (and some in between) - this account I'm at 163. Right across them the story is identical: not one drop since the patch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Took Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, nupraptortwo said: Soo... maybe I am the only lucky guy. I got Edna from Finalmecia yesterday. Depends on what you mean by luck. Is she your only drop since the patch on Wednesday or have you had others? Even if the probability has been cut, someone has to score some time. Anyway, you must be new to the forum if you're listed as a newbie and on Plain of Rituals. If so, welcome! Oh, and well done getting Edna. Her payout is crap, but her hardcore battle stats are great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svante Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Peregrine Took said: No it doesn't, but it's very suspicious. I've never had such a dramatic change in fortune with a patch upgrade since I started playing (not this account) nearly 7 months ago now. Other players have reported the same. My own fortunes have always been patchy, usually event to event, but nothing like this halfway through an event. I don't think we're ever going to know the truth. The developers did notify that they have adjusted the drop rate in some aspects of the game supposedly to make it fairer for those who have been in the game a long time, but it might have had the opposite effect across the board. I have a game where I'm level 184 and one where I'm level 63 (and some in between) - this account I'm at 163. Right across them the story is identical: not one drop since the patch. Yes you are right. I think we just have to wait longer to be sure. Maybe the drop rate is lower because you now have the change to use all your combativity points. Before you couldn't and to make it even now you have a lower droprate per point but overall the same. Just speculating in the other direction here because the devs only said they will adjust. They did not say how. Edited February 10, 2018 by Svante Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Took Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Svante said: Yes you are right. I think we just have to wait longer to be sure. Maybe the drop rate is lower because you now have the change to use all your combativity points. Before you couldn't and to make it even now you have a lower droprate per point but overall the same. Just speculating in the other direction here because the devs only said they will adjust. They did not say how. No they sure didn't say how, did they. I believe as you now do it seems, that they adjusted the drop rate to supposedly even out the chances of getting a drop because we now have 1 1/2 times the opportunities to battle per hour than we did before. Trouble is, if they did that they are promulgating a myth. Changing the drop rate changes our chances of getting a drop... full stop, no matter how many more opportunities we get to try our luck!! I'll explain... The drop rate is set as a statistical probability and is randomised, which means the chance of getting a girl at each battle remains the same regardless of how many opportunities you get to try your luck because the system resets to the base probability every time you do battle. It's a hard concept to grasp, but it's true. If people understood it more, there would be far fewer problem gamblers and less addiction among people trying their luck. Online gambling games (of which this game is one to some extent) tend to alter the probability of success downwards as people progress through the game. Stage one is encouragement by some early successes (and we've all seen that with this game). Stage two is the carrot of hope that one's luck will be as before ("If I play it more often I must win some time"). Stage 3 is "I'm hooked". "I haven't had a win for ages so it must be just around the corner. I must be THAT close!" In my case, what has hooked me is none of these. Mine has been how the drops occur: the black shadowy silhouette of the girl receding from the right of the screen to merge with the actual figure just to the left of centre. To me it's spectacular and thrilling - I don't mind admitting it - and the anticipation of who the girl will be remains almost to the end. I'm sure I must be the only one who has reacted in this way, but this, combined with the rarity of drops actually occurring, means I never ever get tired of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Took Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I'm sure this image would show quite vividly what I mean. This event has passed so it's not a spoiler. Surely it's not, and every player would have seen something like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Took Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 I should add, that even with this hook, line and drawcard for me, if drops were to virtually dry up, I would quickly lose interest in the game, but it would be a wrench - like breaking up with the hottest and sexiest girlfriend ever with only memories to sustain me. I must be pretty sad and pathetic, eh! It's only a damn game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCanon Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 yeah i'm up to 204 fights since the patch level 62 on gruntt and nothing, probably 100+ fights prepatch as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffany Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 8 hours ago, Peregrine Took said: The other rather unscrupulous thing that the gaming businesses peddle is the myth that increasing the number of turns we have to win something somehow increases our chances of success. It doesn't. Although it is true that if the probability of an event doesn't change the chance of it happening for each individual attempt remains the same, the overall probability of an event happening does increase with multiple attempts. It's easily calculated if the probability for a single attempt is known. As an example, consider a six sided die. The probability of rolling a 1 on any toss is 1/6 or 16.67 percent. Now waht's the probability of rolling a 1 in six rolls? It's true that the probability of rolling a 1 on the sixth roll is still only 16.67 percent. However, the probability that a 1 was rolled on at least one of the six rolls is 66.5 percent. Mathematically, the formula is: 1 - p^n where p is the probability of the event not happening and n is the number of attempts. For the die, p = 5/6, the probability of not getting the specific number. Although there is never a guarantee of having rolled a 1, at some point there is a virtual certainty of having done so. Roll the die 25 times. The probability of rolling a one within 25 rolls is 98.95 percent. Continue to roll and at 50 times it becomes 99.99 percent. Although not a certainity, it'd be a very rare occurance that one wasn't rolled within 50 tries. This can be tested empirically. Roll a die over and over and see how often you don't get a specific number within 25 or 50 rolls. So what does this all mean as far as getting a girl to drop in this game? Unfortunately, we don't know the probability for a single attempt. But if we did we could then calculate the probability over multiple attempts to determine at what point having gotten a girl is likely or a near certainty. By way of example consider a drop probability of 1 percent (0.01) or a 0.99 probability of not getting the frop on each attempt. Using the above formula we get the following: One attempt - 0.01 probability or 1 percent chance 100 attempts - 0.634 or 63.4 percent 200 attempts - 0.866 or 86.6 percent 300 attempts - 0.951 or 95.1 percent 400 attempts - 0.982 or 98.2 percent 500 attempts - 0.993 or 99.3 percent 1000 attempts - 0.99995 or 99.995 percent So as can be seen, for an event with a 1 percent chane of happening, it's veirtually certain that it will happen sometiem within 1000 attempts, likely witin 300 attempts. Compar this to the following for a 0.1 percent (0.001) chance event. One attempt - 0.001 probability or 0.1 percent chance 100 attempts - 0.095 or 9.5 percent 200 attempts - 0.181 or 18.1 percent 500 attempts - 0.394 or 39.4 percent 1000 attempts - 0.632 or 63.2 percent 2000 attempts - 0.865 or 86.5 percent 3000 attempts - 0.950 or 95.0 percent 5000 attempts - 0.993 or 99.3 percent 10000 attempts - 0.99995 or 99.995 percent In order to do the same if the drop increases with with each failed attempt, how the probabilty change would also need to be known, but the calculation would be: 1 - p1 * p2 * p3 * ... * pn where n is the number of attempts, p1 is the probabilty of the event not happening on the first attempt, p2 is the probabilty of the event not happening on the secomd attempt, ... pn is the probability of the event not happening on the nth attempt 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don23 Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 @Tiffany Supposedly the drop rate increases as you get more fights in without a girl dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffany Posted February 10, 2018 Share Posted February 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Don23 said: @Tiffany Supposedly the drop rate increases as you get more fights in without a girl dropping. Yes, for regular boss girls, not event girls. I mentioned the increasing chance calculation at the end of my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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