pitythefool

Since there was no universal standard, that's sort of how it goes haha. I just do what's easy for me.

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Everything is on timers so not really. You don't 'need' to pay anything. You simply have to play daily and make sure to complete all the missions so you get your daily kobans. Eventually you'll have in game cash, kobans and a bunch of girls. You could fool around on the test server while you build up your live server account. Test server gives you 27k kobans and 5 million cash to start out with, but it's a worse experience overall because there aren't a bunch of active players. However it can be a good learning tool.

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Anyway here are my overall results from the event across 8 accounts. Only included overall percentage of shard rate, but you can figure out individual girls without much trouble. I guess the only thing I really left off was average attacks to acquire each girl. 2499/16 = 156.18, which funny enough fits right in with my guesstimates all along lol. Results were all over the place from 201 to 413, though if we ignore both the best and worst results, it leaves a much more reasonable area of 263-355. Pretty much goes along with my guesstimates of 0-5 refills..

I don't know about that conclusion. If a boss has boss girls and an event girl you end up with a higher overall shard % chance, but that's not to say you aren't right to some extent. You could technically get unlucky and end up getting boss girl shards over and over and not hit many event girl shards. I had 5 accounts with all 3 girls on gruntt and the numbers weren't skewed much. I did however end up with 1 test account that had pretty bad luck at 246 attacks to acquire bunny which had all 3 boss girls (413 attacks overall to get hari too). Even with that the boss girls didn't generally hurt anything as the numbers below show. Event girls and boss girls each have their own slice of the RNG % pie which doesn't really seem to take away from one another, you just end up with shard/attraction events occurring more often.

Awesome thanks!

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Could be interesting. Discord ID: Pitythefool#2855

Not to mention he's quoting a post from like 50 days ago lol.

You're reading way too far into things. I'm not being hostile nor am I calling your play style silly. My apologies if it somehow came off that way. I find throwing away kobans and potential upside senseless, but that's your call. You're entitled to do what makes you happy.

I don't really mind one way or the other, they'd have to find a good balance though. A pity drop wouldn't exactly make a huge difference regardless. I would argue you already weren't getting a girl during legendary/epic days without using kobans anyway so nothing changes during those events. Revival events are a mixed bag, an 0/56 would probably push you into using koban territory, but you're pretty much already there as well under normal circumstances.

Avoiding a girl just to avoid a girl seems incredibly silly. If you don't like her, don't upgrade her, but not getting her is simply hurting yourself because you'll be missing a pokemon, you're going to miss out on kobans and potential girl for xp/level dump contests. I mean how often are you actually taking an in depth look at your harem? Not very often I imagine.

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That's some exceptionally bad luck if we're talking about revival girls. Can't say I've seen anything that bad across 10+ Revival Event tests. I've seen girls in revival events take 200-210 attacks to get, but the RNG usually allows the other girl to be acquired for less making a more reasonable total number like 325-350. I'd probably put a soft cap at around 370 for reasonable bad luck expectations, which is what Shal dealt with this last event. If what you're saying is true, then idk, that's pretty horrible, like 440 attacks. I'd probably write it off as an unlucky occurrence and move on.

Not sure what you mean. Despite what kinkoid claimed, I've never thought Revival girls (at least based on the numbers I've seen) have been very attainable through merely free attacks. That's not to say it isn't possible, but the likelihood of getting two within 240-260 attacks are so-so at best. I guesstimate ~308 for 2 girls (~154 each). But needing only a few refills isn't a huge deal. As far as Easter feast went, it was a classic event and my guesstimates fall just within the amount of free attacks you get, so on average it should work out to not needing to spend any kobans, but you will have some who need to buy some refills, but we probably aren't talking very many when needed. Anyway I plan on making a post eventually that is like a FAQ/Reasonable expectation for shards and acquiring girls so people can read that an temper their expectations accordingly. I'm not trying to dismiss or minimize anyone's horrible luck, but all these events have fallen within reasonable acquisition rates of the 'guesstimates' I theorized for a vast majority of my testing and presumably a majority of the community. I'm sure there are some bad luck examples, just as there are good luck examples, but most people should fall right in the middle with minor to moderate variation off the expected/estimated outcome. Edit: Adding my Easter Feast result for Alex since Carina got a 100 shard drop. Alex had a 56 shardless streak and still wasn't way over my acquire guesstimate of ~286. I'll have considerably more data for Cameo event as I'm running 6-7 accounts, though some are too new and wont be able to get both girls unfortunately.

Then you're screwed 😉. But really, an 0/80 seems really unlikely. I don't think I've run into anything worse than 0/56 to 0/60 and I'm using multiple accounts every event and recording all the attacks and when shards occur. What I was trying to state was eventually it all tends to balance itself out. You might go 6/100 then go 12/100 and at that point you're almost back to that ~10% shard rate. Whether the shard amounts are actually good is another story, but again after a ton of testing it seems like it averages itself out pretty well. Eh I don't really bother with daily count, I just keep a running overall count. You can still see the gaps in the drops. All that really matters is that you don't end way off the 'guesstimated' mark in terms of total attacks to acquire both girls for the overall event. Which events are you talking about in specific? Because the last Revival Event should have been roughly 0-5 refills to get both girls. The Epic Days event was going to be expensive any way you slice it.

I don't know about 'daily', but I would agree you will end up with at least one or two streaks per girl of 0/20 shard drops, but as I keep saying it's not really a big deal. In the big picture the averages work out fine (for the most part). You'll get that 0/20 followed by a 4/20 and balance is restored lol.

I mean based on the way things are now, 4k kobans for 2 girls during an epic days is actually pretty good. Anything under ~333 battles per girl is good. (either way you're spending less than the 5400 each it would otherwise cost to Epic Pachinko them). You shouldn't need more than a small number of refills for a Revival or Classic event. Epic and Legendary events both essentially require refills for 1 girl. Epic you probably need ~2-8 refills, Legendary you probably need 10-20, (these estimates do factor in the free ~200 attacks).

A 50 attack drought of no shards doesn't mean a whole lot. I've encountered it a few times, but it's never really affected anything greatly. Frankly, if your familiar with my 'estimated averages' for acquiring girls, I've personally never had any issue getting a girl within ~60 attacks (+/-) of that average. Even in those situations, the second girl is/was acquired at 'average' or quicker than average to make the whole thing approximately average even when falling on the less lucky side of things.

Pump the brakes man. RNG is RNG. Just because you hit a rough patch doesn't mean the numbers won't balance themselves out over the course of the event. You noted it yourself by saying 'I started out the event with 20 shards', things can turn quickly. Going from a 0 for 30, 40, 50, 60 stretch to 3,4,5,6,7 shard attacks in the following 20 isn't unheard of. I will admit it sucks when you have long stretches of no shards, but based on all the testing I've done*, it does tend to average itself out by the end of the event. *I'm running 3+ accounts each event in order to gather data. With average luck you should be able to get both girls by the end of the event without spending any kobans. With good luck you'll be done with days to spare. With bad luck you could be on the hook for ~0-5 refills, but considering the event pays out 972 kobans plus 1800 from completing dailies, that's still a net positive as well.

Little late there buddy. Winners just announced about 10 mins ago.

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