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pitythefool

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    A place for people to share their shards drop info

    in Feedback

    Posted · Edited by pitythefool

    8 hours ago, Sev said:

    Yup, checked twice :) But no real effort, Excel did all the magic 😋

    Anyway, thanks for the data in such detailed form. Thanks to all of you who keep posting here in this thread my drop rate estimates get so nice -- and fairly precise, I believe 😁

    Just to let you guys know -- as my priority is reliabilty and accuracy, I only use data detailed at least as much as that of yours, @John 1039 -- or more generally: data given in the form similar (or equivalent) to that frequently posted here by @_shal_ (you buddy filled 30% of my database, many thanks). I also keep some records from @jelom, @pitythefool, @ZackMacKenzie -- unfortunately, your recent logs lack the said complexity 😞

    Let me know if anyone would like to see my personal data 😋

    Since there was no universal standard, that's sort of how it goes haha. I just do what's easy for me.

    legendary june 2019.png

    Energy, money and gold.

    in QA questions answers

    Posted

    Everything is on timers so not really. You don't 'need' to pay anything. You simply have to play daily and make sure to complete all the missions so you get your daily kobans. Eventually you'll have in game cash, kobans and a bunch of girls.

    You could fool around on the test server while you build up your live server account. Test server gives you 27k kobans and 5 million cash to start out with, but it's a worse experience overall because there aren't a bunch of active players. However it can be a good learning tool.

    • Like 2

    A place for people to share their shards drop info

    in Feedback

    Posted · Edited by pitythefool

    Anyway here are my overall results from the event across 8 accounts.  Only included overall percentage of shard rate, but you can figure out individual girls without much trouble.

    I guess the only thing I really left off was average attacks to acquire each girl. 2499/16 = 156.18, which funny enough fits right in with my guesstimates all along lol. Results were all over the place from 201 to 413, though if we ignore both the best and worst results, it leaves a much more reasonable area of 263-355. Pretty much goes along with my guesstimates of 0-5 refills..

     

     

    final final 1.png

    A place for people to share their shards drop info

    in Feedback

    Posted · Edited by pitythefool

    On 4/18/2019 at 3:23 AM, jaybee said:

    To mitigate these fantastic results - in this non-serious forum-oriented account I still have three boss girls unclaimed from Gruntt. So around 230 fights for Eastern Bunny have given me 53 shards + an unknown number of shards for the three boss girls. So the three boss girls really screw up any sort of chances for event girls.

    Final results:

    Easter Evet Revival
    Grunt, ca 250 battles, 75 shards for Easter Bunny (+uncounted number for three boss girls)

    I don't know about that conclusion.

    If a boss has boss girls and an event girl you end up with a higher overall shard % chance, but that's not to say you aren't right to some extent. You could technically get unlucky and end up getting boss girl shards over and over and not hit many event girl shards.

    I had 5 accounts with all 3 girls on gruntt and the numbers weren't skewed much. I did however end up with 1 test account that had pretty bad luck at 246 attacks to acquire bunny which had all 3 boss girls (413 attacks overall to get hari too). Even with that the boss girls didn't generally hurt anything as the numbers below show. Event girls and boss girls each have their own slice of the RNG % pie which doesn't really seem to take away from one another, you just end up with shard/attraction events occurring more often.

    results event girl + boss girls.png

    Cameo event

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Cantrix said:

    A bit of advice, don't call people's play styles silly just because they don't suit your tastes, it really isn't a good way to bring up your point, nor to start a conversation - seems borderline hostile.

    You're reading way too far into things. I'm not being hostile nor am I calling your play style silly. My apologies if it somehow came off that way.

    I find throwing away kobans and potential upside senseless, but that's your call. You're entitled to do what makes you happy.

    • Thanks 1

    Cameo event

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, jaybee said:

    I definitely vote for a pity drop, so you can't go more than 30 fights without a drop.

    I don't really mind one way or the other, they'd have to find a good balance though. A pity drop wouldn't exactly make a huge difference regardless.

    7 minutes ago, jaybee said:

    When these streaks happen during legendary, epic or revival days, you are completely fucked, no good luck will save you.

    I would argue you already weren't getting a girl during legendary/epic days without using kobans anyway so nothing changes during those events.  Revival events are a mixed bag, an 0/56 would probably push you into using koban territory, but you're pretty much already there as well under normal circumstances.

    • Like 1

    Cameo event

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Cantrix said:

    Now i'll go back to Roko but i'm still sad because i will have to loose 500 kobans from daily missions to avoid Carlita joining my harem.

    Avoiding a girl just to avoid a girl seems incredibly silly. If you don't like her, don't upgrade her, but not getting her is simply hurting yourself because you'll be missing a pokemon, you're going to miss out on kobans and potential girl for xp/level dump contests. 

    I mean how often are you actually taking an in depth look at your harem? Not very often I imagine.

    • Like 1

    Cameo event

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by pitythefool

    38 minutes ago, Cantrix said:

    9 refills + 5 days of free combativity and of rward 20pts is roughly 400fights for 2girls -yes it's quite reasonable, but it's way too impossible to get 2 girls with free combativity(or way below the implied "average" droprate that presumably allows most of the players to get 2.girls with free combaitivity).

    That's some exceptionally bad luck if we're talking about revival girls. Can't say I've seen anything that bad across 10+ Revival Event tests. I've seen girls in revival events take 200-210 attacks to get, but the RNG usually allows the other girl to be acquired for less making a more reasonable total number like 325-350. I'd probably put a soft cap at around 370 for reasonable bad luck expectations, which is what Shal dealt with this last event. If what you're saying is true, then idk, that's pretty horrible, like 440 attacks. I'd probably write it off as an unlucky occurrence and move on. 

    • Like 2

    Cameo event

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by pitythefool

    1 hour ago, Cantrix said:

    Easter feast and Spring break revival. Countrary to expectations drops from the second one were not high enough to obtain spring Lola with free tries :D

    Not sure what you mean. Despite what kinkoid claimed, I've never thought Revival girls (at least based on the numbers I've seen) have been very attainable through merely free attacks. That's not to say it isn't possible, but the likelihood of getting two within 240-260 attacks are so-so at best. I guesstimate ~308 for 2 girls (~154 each). But needing only a few refills isn't a huge deal.

    As far as Easter feast went, it was a classic event and my guesstimates fall just within the amount of free attacks you get, so on average it should work out to not needing to spend any kobans, but you will have some who need to buy some refills, but we probably aren't talking very many when needed.

    Anyway I plan on making a post eventually that is like a FAQ/Reasonable expectation for shards and acquiring girls so people can read that an temper their expectations accordingly. I'm not trying to dismiss or minimize anyone's horrible luck, but all these events have fallen within reasonable acquisition rates of the 'guesstimates' I theorized for a vast majority of my testing and presumably a majority of the community.  I'm sure there are some bad luck examples, just as there are good luck examples, but most people should fall right in the middle with minor to moderate variation off the expected/estimated outcome.

     

    Edit: Adding my Easter Feast result for Alex since Carina got a 100 shard drop. Alex had a 56 shardless streak and still wasn't way over my acquire guesstimate of ~286. I'll have considerably more data for Cameo event as I'm running 6-7 accounts, though some are too new and wont be able to get both girls unfortunately.

    easter feaster huehue.png

    • Thanks 2

    Cameo event

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Lhans said:

    Um, what if that first 0/20 is followed by 0/20, then another 0/20 and yet another 0/20? Which pretty much screws you over in terms of free fights in an event.

    Then you're screwed 😉. But really, an 0/80 seems really unlikely. I don't think I've run into anything worse than 0/56 to 0/60 and I'm using multiple accounts every event and recording all the attacks and when shards occur. What I was trying to state was eventually it all tends to balance itself out. You might go 6/100 then go 12/100 and at that point you're almost back to that ~10% shard rate. Whether the shard amounts are actually good is another story, but again after a ton of testing it seems like it averages itself out pretty well.

    7 minutes ago, jaybee said:

    I keep daily count for statistics purposes and the 0/20 drought has been a daily occurrence for me. No exceptions this far. But yeah, I cannot complain, my refills have been minimal (as I haven't even tried with hopeless cases).

    Eh I don't really bother with daily count, I just keep a running overall count. You can still see the gaps in the drops. All that really matters is that you don't end way off the 'guesstimated' mark in terms of total attacks to acquire both girls for the overall event.

    16 minutes ago, Cantrix said:

    I agree,, the problem is i am having simillar experiences with usual events.

    The previous 2 events i had to spend respectively 1,8 and 1,2k kobans on refills. That's a reoccurring pattern...

    In combativity this translates into 9 and 6 refiills-which is equals roughly 4 and 2 days of free combativity.  Thiss will translate into a 60% lower than average drop rate for a 7days event and 50% lower than average drop rate for a 4day event. Which is a bummer.

    It's still better than before- where i had to make up to 26 refills(533fights) in my worst case to get Kameyala(a rare normal event girl), but then again what exactly means average to us and to the developers? :)

    Which events are you talking about in specific? Because the last Revival Event should have been roughly 0-5 refills to get both girls. The Epic Days event was going to be expensive any way you slice it.

    Cameo event

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, jaybee said:

    I have had a daily 20-shard drought since the start of the shard system during events. It can be longer but has stayed below 50 this far, I think. But a minimum of 20 consecutive empty fights has been 100% guaranteed every single event day since February. For me that is the only consistency concerning shards.

    I don't know about 'daily', but I would agree you will end up with at least one or two streaks per girl of 0/20 shard drops, but as I keep saying it's not really a big deal. In the big picture the averages work out fine (for the most part). You'll get that 0/20 followed by a 4/20 and balance is restored lol.

    Cameo event

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Cantrix said:

    I wouldn't consider 4k kobans to get 2 girls as a "small number of refills", but then again it was about the last epic days,so this affects the amount of shards you can get per battle.

    I mean based on the way things are now, 4k kobans for 2 girls during an epic days is actually pretty good. Anything under ~333 battles per girl is good. (either way you're spending less than the 5400 each it would otherwise cost to Epic Pachinko them).

    You shouldn't need more than a small number of refills for a Revival or Classic event.

    Epic and Legendary events both essentially require refills for 1 girl. Epic you probably need ~2-8 refills, Legendary you probably need 10-20, (these estimates do factor in the free ~200 attacks).

    Cameo event

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, Lhans said:

    So for all those unlucky folks with 50+ shard droughts, you're out of luck since you're the minority. 

    A 50 attack drought of no shards doesn't mean a whole lot. I've encountered it a few times, but it's never really affected anything greatly.

    Frankly, if your familiar with my 'estimated averages' for acquiring girls, I've personally never had any issue getting a girl within ~60 attacks (+/-) of that average. Even in those situations, the second girl is/was acquired at 'average' or quicker than average to make the whole thing approximately average even when falling on the less lucky side of things.

    Cameo event

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by pitythefool

    14 minutes ago, Falco82 said:

    So, yesterday I started the event and I managed to get 20 shards and I said to myself "ok, I'm above average since to take both girls because I should take one every 6 days with an average of 16 shards a day. Definitely not it will always be so good for me but ok, it can be there ".

    Now, I'm attacking all day and I have taken the beauty of 0 shard today.
    Tell me again about the average of luck but I keep saying that the drop rate system must be absolutely revised.

    Pump the brakes man.

    RNG is RNG. Just because you hit a rough patch doesn't mean the numbers won't balance themselves out over the course of the event. You noted it yourself by saying 'I started out the event with 20 shards', things can turn quickly. Going from a 0 for 30, 40, 50, 60 stretch to 3,4,5,6,7 shard attacks in the following 20 isn't unheard of. I will admit it sucks when you have long stretches of no shards, but based on all the testing I've done*, it does tend to average itself out by the end of the event.

    *I'm running 3+ accounts each event in order to gather data.

    With average luck you should be able to get both girls by the end of the event without spending any kobans. With good luck you'll be done with days to spare. With bad luck you could be on the hook for ~0-5 refills, but considering the event pays out 972 kobans plus 1800 from completing dailies, that's still a net positive as well.

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