jaybee

He's not quitting. With his luck, he will need 1-2 more days to get a free 100-shard drop. There's no proof yet that the odds of that have become incredibly worse for epic and legendaries. Although yes, for 12-day event girls the chance of a 100-shard drop seems to be lower than a drop before (based on 1 half-finished event in the test server and one day of a 12-day event in the real server). For me as well - I have received 100% of the long event girls for free and I expect this to continue with the shard system. If I suddenly have to start spending kobans to complete event girls, I will complain. The new system is an improvement for me only if event girls continue to be easily obtainable for free, and if it makes epic girls obtainable for less than 5,400 kobans - otherwise it just makes more sense to continue with the current game play: collect your rewards daily and about twice a month you are rewarded with an Epic Pachinko spin, so you get about 5 new girls a month (3 from the long event, 2 from Epic Pachinko). Buying the girls is the current game play for me and the reason I continue - without collecting all the rewards religiously, I don't get to 5,400 kobans and a new girl. If the shards give me another way to get more girls, all the better.

I have a similar experience with my clubs - some people getting all the legendaries with free drops, getting epics with a few reloads. And me getting nothing for free, ever. So for me the game has always been Pay2Win - I need to collect 5,400 kobans to get a new strong girl. Any new feature that keeps the price below 5,400 is good for me because I always buy my girls. I think people with my luck are under-represented in this forum because they would quit quickly and move to other more interesting games. But I imagine my luck is not exceptional because many (most?) of the dead accounts (90% of the server) would be in that category.

Just my comment - my luck with getting a free epic or legendary girl has been zero (0). Never a single time during all the events has a free girl dropped for me (only during 12/14 day events). Only once have I spent 5,400 kobans on 500 boss fights during Epic Days to try and get a girl cheaper than in epic pachinko. She did not drop after spending 5,400, so I quit as I had earlier set my limit at that amount. So in the game all of my girls have come from 12/14-day events + Epic Pachinko whenever I get 5,400 kobans. This time I had spent 1,500 kobans on boss fights when I got a 100 shard drop. So - yes, maybe the 100 shard drop chances are lower than a girl drop before. But I got the drop this time and have never before lucked with that in the game (with difficult girls). For players like me, the change was good.

It would not frustrate me, I would see it as a positive thing that I don't have to start from complete zero the next time. And if a revival gives me several girls I don't have, the shard numbers point me towards the girl that I have best chances of getting, I would no longer fight randomly for one or the other, giving up on one and switching for the other, trying to outguess RNG. But I agree that with the shard system we should have more revivals with more girls and options. Basically all the bosses should have an old girl during all revivals and events, so that all sharded girls would make more than one appearance during the year.

249 fights - 61 shards at that point - got the 100 shard drop By that time had spent 1,505 kobans (2,030 without promotion). 12 times 1 shard, 14 times 2 shards, 7 times 3 shards - based on that would say that the chances of 3 shards are lower one 20 fight streak with 0 shards, best streak - 3 fights with shards. Best 20-fight series - 6 fights with shards, typically 2 or 3 fights with shards out of 20. Background: I have received 0 (zero) epic and legendary girls with free fights. Once tried to get an epic girl with boss fights, spent 5,400 kobans (during 35% off promotion) on fights, got nothing and stopped at that point. Since then I have never spent a single koban on boss fights - I just use the free fights and if I don't get the girl, then I don't get her (and history has shown I have never got any - my only free girls have been at 12-day events, never got any other drops anywhere. I have received 100% of 12/14-day girls for free). So my play style has been to collect kobans and use them in epic panchinko for the guaranteed 5,400 drop. I do not spend kobans on anything else. This is what I would have done at this legendary event - I would have done my 220 free fights during 4 days, not really expecting a drop and probably not getting it. The new system made me spend 1,500 (2,000) kobans that I would have otherwise saved for epic pachinko. And gave me my first legendary. Without the 100-shard drop, I would have spent around 2,500 due to the last day of the promotion to get to around 80-85 shards and then fought for three days to get to 100. During non-promotion I would look at the shard count in the final day and decide then if it is worth spending on boss fights.

Odds are better than expected for a legendary. I have had 208 fights (spent 1,231 kobans on buying 9 times). That's about the number of free fights during four days. I am at 52 shards. I assumed this amount of fights to give me 15-20% of a legendary, so it's good to know that you can get 40-50% of a girl with free fights during four days.

I remember the discussion. When everybody said that OK, put the event girls separate but price them at 5,400 like the others, Kinkoid clearly said: "As stated, the price of guaranteeing an event girl should be around 7000 to 8000 kobans." For me, it is logical that legendary girl has to cost more. This will be the first legendary for whom the average price based on the number of fights can be calculated, so I am hoping they have put the drop chances high enough that 10,000 is sufficient

What we know is that developers launched Event Pachinko because 5,400 kobans was "too little" to get those girls and they thought an average spend of 7,000-8,000 kobans would be good for players to get them. As legendary girls should be more difficult to get, an average spend of around 10,000 kobans is probably considered ideal for players. Turn that into the number of boss fights and you probably get the drop chances. I personally expect 4 days of free fights to give around 15-20% of a legendary girl (but could be worse). It's also weird how the 100-shard drop is calculated. Kinkoid has said that with e.g. Dark Lord each shard drop from 1 to 69 has an equal chance of happening. And has said in the French forum that the chance of 100 shards cannot be compared to the earlier system of a drop "because it is equal" and "completely different". Which would make sense in a Dark Lord scenario where you could have an equal chance of 1-69 and 100, meaning a 1/70 chance of getting a girl for full when you get a shard drop. But certainly doesn't make sense in a legendary 1-3 shard system where the 100 shard drop must have a tiny-tiny-minuscule chance compared to getting 1, 2 or 3 shards.

First, more data is needed on real drops. If the shard system is in place, the amount of drops the shard numbers can always be tweaked. Just by writing other numbers in the formula, the developers can basically determine if winning a girl takes 2-3 years of events, 2 events or 2-3 days of fighting. I don't also understand the pay2win concept - there is absolutely nothing to win in this game. It is a very self-centered game where you collect pictures for yourself. The gambling element is probably essential why people prefer to click in the game, rather than Wiki to see all the pictures. So yes, the randomness and novelty (new girls not yet in the Wiki) factor probably keeps people in the game because sure drops would make it too similar to clicking the Wiki site. Pay2win would mean that people who are paying real money would get more pictures - what's the harm in that? It makes no difference whatsoever if somebody has 236 or 76 girls, if they have upgraded someone to five, three or two stars. You are spending all the time and effort entirely on your own account and whatever you do there is entirely for your own pleasure with no effect on others. There is always someone who has started the game one year earlier than you and there is absolutely no way to catch up or "win" anything. In that respect I don't see the harm of gambling-related sure drops. If it is too difficult, too many people will realise that what they are doing is stupid - spending money on freely available pictures (that are extremely expensive in the game for real money) and then actually not getting them. A stable drop rate would keep people collecting and spending occasional money on that. At least that's how it works for me - I enjoy the game because with some effort I get rewards. This is my only enjoyment. Do I like the game more when it makes the rewards too difficult? Not for me, this only moves me towards quitting and understanding that it is essentially idiotic. What keeps me in the game is this stable flow of events and a promise of new rewards. If I am left without rewards for a longer time, it diminishes my interest (although developers seem to think that it should increase my determination). Yes, there are occasional people who are ready for a crazy spend to get rewards but these people are too few to keep the whole server going. I play the Gay Harem version and it seems the results can be seen there. The hentai story has stopped with Donatien, basically whoever has kept playing for 2-3 months, is blocked at the same place in the story. Events are fewer than in the girl server (first ever revival is at the end of February). There are 237,000 registered players. The number of crazy spenders who basically have all the guys (130) is 40. Player number 100 already has 95 or by a third fewer. In my club 90% of players are dead. They were active enough 2-3 months ago to join the club but now only 2-3 of those 20 are still making progress. People are quitting because there's no new content, too few new rewards that are too difficult to get. The number of crazy spenders who can be milked for 100 euro per picture by keeping the rewards difficult is tiny and cannot keep the server going. The general player needs a steady stream of accesible rewards to remain interested.

I understood that as an undesired shard effect - as the shards are divided between villain/event girls, your event girl gets fewer hits, as the drop odds are not entirely separate. Remove the villain girl and all the hits go to the event girl, filling her quicker. Not necessarily proof that the current full drop system suffers from the same. All I can say that as a beginner with undropped villain girls, I never needed more than 2 days for event girls, even as I fought for months for the villain girls. My first 4-day drop came after 40 girls with all villain girls collected. I created a new account for the purposes of this forum and dropped February's Ninja Spy Event girl within the first 20 fights, with all 3 villain girls still undropped. So I always took it as a given that the drop chances are reduced as you go higher and really thought that the long boss drop thread somehow confirmed that

How can it be an addition? If the current RNG system kept track of your fight numbers and increased your chances with every fight, there would be no need for the shards - eventually your odds would get high enough for a drop. RNG doesn't know if you have fought the boss 5 times or 5,000 times previously, nobody is keeping track of your fights and modifying your individual odds - you just have a 0.1 or 0.5% chance to get a drop with every fight.

OK, I thought the thread somehow confirmed a difference in the drop rate. I haven't really dug into the numbers there, I can just say that as a beginner, I never took more than 2 days to get an event girl, at worst it turned to 4 days after 40 girls but usually stayed around the two-day mark. How anyone can go 12-14 days without dropping a girl is beyond me - I assumed they would have to be a high-level player with 100+ girls.

So let's see what they did with the chances. Ideally, the chance of getting a girl 100% with one fight stayed the same, especially for epic/legendary girls where it was almost zero anyway. So the only difference would be positive - all of the failing players will get some shards as a consolation and the few extremely lucky players can still get any girl for free. But somehow I suspect that the chances of a 100% strike have been turned down considerably. We will see during the next 12-day event. The two free girls now should be obtainable for most of the server in 2-4 days - as a bonus they would no get a lot of shards, around 50 by that time - that would be converted into lingerie. Sounds untypically generous. Another note with the shards system - there does not seem to be any difference depending on the number of girls that you have. Right now players below level 200 basically have a 100% chance of getting the two 12-day event girls. Some players above that level report how they sometimes fail with them. Now with the shards it should be counted if the chance of them dropping is different for Level 300 and Level 50 players. If the drop chance is the same, it can mean one of two things 1) low-level players will start failing with girls a lot more and can go without a free drop for months, quickly reducing their interest to continue playing - the number of dead accounts will be boosted due to the disappointment 2) high-level players will start getting girls at earlier low-level chances, meaning that they have an increased chance of collecting girls for free. Somehow I suspect version 1) or a considerable difference in shard drop chances depending on your level.

I have always needed 2-3 days max to get a girl during 12-day events. After all, their drop rate is about 1%, so with 50 free battles a day, 100-150 battles or 2-3 days should be a very average result. This has now extended to 250 battles or 5 days to get 100 shards. It should not go beyond 5-6 days for one girl because at least those girls should be obtainable for free by doing the daily boss battles without kobans. Still, the aim should be for active players to get the girls in 2-4 days and for non-actives who don't use all of their battles to take 5-6 days. Therefore - increase the number of shards dropped or make the shards available through some other ways. I understand it is planned anyway. I believe the shard system is great for members who buy refills on boss fights - you can no longer spend 5,000 or 10,000 kobans and get absolutely nothing while a free player may need just 20 free fights to get the same girl. If you spend kobans now, the shards guarantee you some progress that is not lost. That is a good system against disappointment. But the shards make the progress of all players pretty similar and there's no more surprise factor. With epic and legendary girls you knew that you had very small chances of getting a girl but the surprise factor was possible. Shards remove the negative surprise (OMG! I spent thousands and got nothing, this game sucks!) and that is good. But they also remove the positive surprise (OMG! Legendary XX dropped in two days! I was sure I cannot be this lucky!) Now everybody knows 100% that they will not get an epic/legendary girl for free and there's nothing they can do to be lucky. If you don't want to spend on refills, you look at the legendary girl coming out in February and say: "Yeah, I like her. I will hunt her now and during all revivals and will get her by year 2022 or 2021 if I am lucky with shards." Well, that will sort of make you give up on this game. The shards remove the negative surprise - very good. But the positive surprise and chance of luck have to be preserved somehow.

It seems to make the game very long-term for free players. Ordinary event girls seem to be obtainable in 5-6 days, so 12 days will be just enough to get two if you do all the fights, or you might be left with just one, if unlucky. OK, better luck next year during the revival. New players can at best obtain one revival girl, no mathematical chance of getting two. Epic and legendary girls will be mathematically impossible to get for free. You need 2-3 years of free plays during a number of revival events to have a chance at them. The only bonus seems to be that boss girls will be easier to get with the shard system. Nobody will probably need to fight 3-6 months to get them. This style goes for players who prefer to collect kobans to play epic pachinko and get girls from there. They can now choose to spend the kobans on event/epic/legendary girls that they earlier could chance to get for free. In that case they will no longer have kobans for epic pachinko, ever again. All of the kobans will be spent on boss fights for the "free" girls in the future. Luck will continue to play a role during 12-day events. If you are lucky, you get 2 girls without spending kobans. If you are unlucky, you have to spend perhaps a thousand kobans on additional fights. Luck will stop playing a role for epic, legendary etc girls. OK, if you are lucky, you can get to 30 shards by the end of the 4-day events. If you are unlucky, perhaps you stop at 15. Luck will come to play 2-3 years later when you are approaching 100 shards at some future revival event. If you are lucky, you may need just three events to get a "free" girl. If you are unlucky, you need 4-5 events and a couple of more years of play. How to make this system work? Perhaps with much more frequent revivals and second chance events that would have more numerous girls. That way players can keep increasing their shards several times a year. Epic Pachinko girls could disappear and start appearing at events, so they can be sharded up and perhaps bought with enough boss fights. Instead of a single 5,400 koban spin, you would have a guarantee that if you click the boss fight about 500 times, you can get to 80-100 shards on any girl. Doesn't look like a very attractive future, though. Perhaps by adding a new item, a sort of a attraction sphere that could be used on any girl and would give 1-4 attraction shards based on rarity. These could drop from any sort of activity (contest wins, pachinko, weekly wins, arena fights, boss fights, league fights, daily quests, maybe even the market). Sort of a "if you are active, you can get these as a bonus" thing. Like if you do at least 40 boss fights, 30 arena fights, I don't know, at least 2 market refreshes a day, there's a chance of them starting appearing. It would be a way of rewarding active players. The number of shards per victory could be increased but inevitably it will be impossible for anyone ever to get a non-12-day-event girl for free. That sort of RNG luck will disappear from the game. It will be a "I need 50 shard wins to get this girl" game for everyone and it looks sort of a tedious prospect. I feel the game somehow needs to preserve this element of getting a girl for free during a 4-5-day event. But how? Some sort of a rare super shard that gives you 30-50 attraction? Keeping the current 0.5% or worse chance to win an epic/legendary girl for free? And OK, if someone gets that with 80 shards collected, he just got 80 flowers as well? But something needs to be changed or I feel too many players will just give up when they see that they now need years, not days, to get a girl without just paying for it.