Rarum

I could have beaten La Kajira. Count yourself lucky, because there were so many other PvP things going on that I didn't want to waste AMEs this week (well, there was a partial one at the start). The projected "if I did my best" score is 7265, more than enough for a top 1. This week I also tried to modify my usual strategy a little bit. But to really get these ideas to be more than just hunches, I'd really like to get score predictions for this vs. next blessing working, which will maybe take a bit to implement since that blessings data is not very machine readable.

I was hoping I could get you a nice graph about the race to top 1 between me and Socrates, but I took a setback in making that, and I don't know if it's worth the work. Well, in a textual format, Socrates had a surprisingly stable average, while mine climbed up and eventually overtook his. I wanted to play it relatively safe, so this league was very resource-intensive for me. At least it's eating from my stockpiles and not costing for real that much just yet. Some notes on what I arguably did wrong: I started out the league with a worse set of boosters than I'd have preferred (carried over from previous league). Also I panicked at seeing a prediction for my score based on a false list of fought opponents, and used one last AME at the end too because of that. This is what manual labor gets you; something to improve upon clearly. Things I normally don't do but probably increased my score: I took advantage of the blessings change with some strategically timed refills. Though, this is kind of costly.

Well, besides getting more shards of the girl that was on offer from the club champion, the champion gets more difficult the more you beat it. I don't know the exact rules, but when you go to the battle screen, there's a tier (I think it was called).

1. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13nbqBk8zQjiyWMpdmdi1Ir7X6OiljTMzM8mvRpdT8hI 2. I think that the know-how CCs can heal themselves, but I've only ever seen one negative impression yet on the CC leaderboards. Though, I only just moved to the new club where that happened. In any case, negative impression is the exception. 3. I think if you've won the girl already, you'll be only getting a single legendary gift no matter how many times you fight. It's been a while for me, though, since that last happened. 4. There is some kind of a rotation system in place, I do believe. I don't necessarily want to give false information so maybe I'll not say more.

Yeah, it was kind of clear that La Kajira would win this one. But I still went ahead and splurged far too many resources for a "guaranteed" top 4. About 1½ AMEs and a fair bit of other boosters were used for this. But what this league was really about for me, was improving the toolset I have for predicting my own score. I feel like I can somewhat even trust the predictions I'm making now about myself, but we'll see. It doesn't take into account the blessings change, of course, and honestly I'm having to scale back the amount of calculations I'm making. It's a delicate balance between a lot of quality data and the game being at all playable, and there was some loss in accuracy from an optimization I made earlier, so I rolled that back and I no longer can reasonably have as many predictions being calculated. If I could find the time, I'd make a separate program that's GPU accelerated for all the number crunching I could desire... until I find ways to waste even that extra computational power somehow. I could have achieved a score of 7349 if I really wanted to. Not that it would have made a difference this time.

What? Not enough graphs? Fine, then. Have one more. This graph is messy enough that it may be a one-off thing, but it shows some historical data about how I might have done against players, normalized to me having a specific set of boosters. (Well, it looks like there may have been some problem with Fri 14; I probably was still messing around with stuff.)

The end of the week had some turmoil, with me leaving the Royal Club and joining The Discordians along with many of others. That meant I didn't have the club bonuses for a day, and I didn't handle how it would affect the league perfectly. Also an update changed up some inner workings of the site, again. I used "only" two AMEs this time. Also, I tried some new tricks again with attempting to predict how people will do, and adjusting resource usage accordingly. This is very much a work in progress thing; I'm trying to find out a method to the madness of minimizing costs over a league. And that's only realistic because I now have efficient enough code to simulate not just the current set of boosters I have on, but a handful of different ones. There's also a new metric I'm trying to give. I could have reached a score of 7348 if I really wanted to. This is how my predictions turned out: aizen: 23.43 -> 23.19 Agent009: 23.22 -> 23.30 Adelaid: 23.2 -> 21.43 Agalloch: 23.2 -> 20.33 pwned0987: 23.15 -> 22.69 45026831: 23 -> 22.06 shade46: 22.9 -> 21.54 Takanome: 22.7 -> 22.61 Vovenok: 22 -> 20.57 Yeah, I figured a lot would be overestimates. But it's more about predicting worst-case outcomes (from my perspective), and this is just for something "fun" to show this work I did. I could have spent some more time squinting at the data and maybe gotten better estimates.

Time for some predictions about how people will have done in this league: aizen: 23.43 Agent009: 23.22 Adelaid: 23.2 Agalloch: 23.2 pwned0987: 23.15 45026831: 23 shade46: 22.9 Takanome: 22.7 Vovenok: 22 Rarum: let's not spoil the surprise It's not meant to be a top 10 prediction, but nevertheless it'll be interesting to see how many of them will be there, or at least in top 15.

We have started migrating to The Discordians. I'll figure out some good tag to mark this thread as not relevant any longer.

Yeah, an inactive leader is just not going to fly with my clubmates.

Is your leader active? What's the club's name? It is becoming clear there would be several people who would have to be left behind with The Discordians (more than 15 spots would be good to have, yes), so it's good to have some options on the table. Even though we've planned pretty far how we'd do it.

I've been using multiple different sets of boosters in the past (to save resources; that's the end goal of fighting in the league after all), but I've added a weight for how much I'll lose if I switch to a worse set of boosters into how I select the order in which I fight opponents. I wouldn't have dared to do this with the old way I estimate how I'll do against opponents; it would start to be a bit painstakingly slow at that point. But I've found more shortcuts to be able to do even more without really losing accuracy. There's been a pattern of gaining some computational performance and then wasting it all away for those extra 0.05 points per fight or whatever (all things equal).

This was an off-week for me. There were several opponents that I feared, enough so that I gave myself a chance below my rough idea for a break-even point of 50% to get top 1. Top 4 I hardly even consider these days, so I opted to save up on as many resources as I could. It turns out I should have given my everything in this league too, but oh well. It's nice to have some "rest" once in a while.

There's not been much discussion after these new messages. I did try suggesting that volunteers could go their own way since our actives are so close to fitting in The Discordians at least. We have one such volunteer and that would just require one more and my personal estimate for the amount of migrants would fit. But yeah, nothing's really decided. Regarding the staggering, I thought that I'd at least stay in the old club for a while to tell people who read chat less often where we've gone. But I've not yet presented this thought to my club so yeah, this transition isn't a very decided matter yet either.

About 15, maximum of 20, people of level 398 or above are in for discussions for a new club to go to on Nutaku's HH. Some background: The leader of our current club, the Royal Club (ID: 1602), has been inactive for a long time. Furthermore, some past decisions about club policies, as well as other member loss or becoming inactive, have lead to this club having much fewer active members than cap. The asked for level, 400, is also too high for finding enough new members and can't be changed without an active leader. So with this prolonged situation (hindering club champion shards even now) and club leagues very possibly coming, many of us seem to at least be accepting of merging with another club. If this is to happen, we'd come to your club over some transition period, and can probably upgrade it fairly quickly to max if it's not already. The receiving club should have an active leader and be able to accomodate a variety of playstyles (not all of us are competitive, though some are). I'll discuss with my club when there are more concrete merging partner suggestions. There was one already but that one might have meant not all active people could join, which resulted in some backlash.

1day for 1 GPx10 orb.

Many of the girls I used were indeed blessed, but not all. The team composition graph shows that I switched teams quite often. It's maybe not super duper beneficial to know the individual girls, but I think I'll keep some trade secrets still.

I actually won against @Hugh Jerexion. And just so you understand the type of opponent we are talking about, I included a screenshot of that as well. A higher level opponent with a team of level 700 mythics is kind of scary (well, toward the end I think there was one level 600 but blessed mythic). I am level 461 with my teams consisting mostly out of level 600 girls, for comparison. I have one regret about this league, and that's having switched from my best set of boosters to the second best too early. If I had waited just one set of them longer, I could have fought Hugh with the best setup at the weakest I could find him during the league. Yeah, he said he was unboosted a lot previously, but I don't think many of those happened during the snapshots so to me it appeared he was boosted a whole lot. Maybe the unboostedness could also have been during the one snapshot of the day when I'm usually not awake. Boosters-wise I used an AME for every fight, and I had three different sets of legendary boosters at different points of the league.

I'll say that it's been a pretty thrilling league, with Hugh Jerexion with a team of level 700 mythics up against me. He's been using three cordyceps for the most part, but of course I can't tell on my end if any AMEs were used. I would assume not, but I'm sure Hugh will clarify that. Currently I've just passed Hugh. I'm at 7128 points and Hugh has been plateaued at 7114 for like a day now. I'm not sure if he's finished yet (no need to spoil the surprise), but I'm not quite done personally. So still remains to be seen how this ends.

I lost, barely. Congratulations to Lgm123! I do recall saying here that this weeks looked tough, but I couldn't hand over my winning streak without a fight. When Lgm123 had reached their final score of 7312, I calculated that it was very likely over for me. But victory wasn't mathematically impossible, and so I continued fighting. I feel like Lgm123 also was trying a little bit at least, since they never once came completely off boosters (though there were moments they were partially boosted). I have put new minor tricks up my sleeve, too, which I hope will make a difference in the future in such nail-biting leagues.

In this survey, I started asking them to conduct a survey on features (or events) people would be the most willing to get rid of, and that they shouldn't add more before they've made room.

It looks like they've retroactively added Lyrsa (from the Training Dimension) to our harems, presumably if we are past a certain point in the story.

@jelom Which boosters did you use? Were there any All Mastery's Emblems involved? I had that debate (albeit because of a misunderstanding) about how much difference AMEs make, so it interests me.

The winning streak is alive (now at 3 firsts in D3). It felt a bit touch-and-go, what with the already formidable Suga'babe having an early lead, but I prevailed. GG.

A person I trust has said they've negotiated with a certain influential figure in Kinkoid about this. It sounded like they'd come to an agreement, but it's not some kind of an official statement, hence "rumors".