12/Feb/2020 week 7 patch note discussion

[Karyia]

It would be nice if changes were announced before they were actually implemented (it kind of feels like we can't be sure of what is going to happen the next day, right now).

IMO, this way a lot of unnecessary frustration (and so on) would be avoided, and it would/could also be a sign that they value/have interest on our feedback.

[LanceHardwood]

7 hours ago, Karyia said:

It would be nice if changes were announced before they were actually implemented (it kind of feels like we can't be sure of what is going to happen the next day, right now).

IMO, this way a lot of unnecessary frustration (and so on) would be avoided, and it would/could also be a sign that they value/have interest on our feedback.

Advance notice is not always sufficient. Reading those patch notes, did you expect the impact they had on champions ?

Kinkoid needs to be clear about how their notes concern very specific parts of the technical implementation and not overall behavior and results.

[Karyia]

4 hours ago, LanceHardwood said:

Advance notice is not always sufficient. Reading those patch notes, did you expect the impact they had on champions ?

Kinkoid needs to be clear about how their notes concern very specific parts of the technical implementation and not overall behavior and results.

No doubt! But hopefully, they'll do it before they actually implement it.

They seem to have settled on the wednesday announce/implement rotation, as they had said (IIRC).

[LanceHardwood]

Back to the patch itself in general, does anybody else feel like it's too slow to obtain tickets now. Previously I'd get about 5-10 per day, while the last few days it's been around 5-6 max. Today I've got only 3 new tickets.

[Zorba the Geek]

As the drop rate for the single epic orbs is quite low, I imagine that the x10 Epic orb would be like finding gold, as GeorgeMTO implied re. the f2p player chances.

On my own journey, my luck in single-spin Epic Pachinko continues with the orb system, as the following from my Lili account will testify:

Two of these were obtained through Epic Pachinko with orbs and the third (Halloween Housemaid) was obtained through Mythic Pachinko.

Then there was this little stroke of luck in my Hernie Hynde account:

These three were courtesy of Epic Pachinko orbs.

So it's probably beginner's luck and I suspect the drop rate for orbs will reduce over time as people are hooked into the system, assuming they have the same kinds of early successes as I had.  All in all, though, I'm happy about the change.  No surprise there!  My only disappointment was the odd artwork for Kenzie and Minerva.

Re. the 10 spin orb, does this allow one to obtain more than one girl? One can only obtain one girl per x10 spin under normal circumstances (5400 koban spend).

[Karyia]

6 hours ago, LanceHardwood said:

Back to the patch itself in general, does anybody else feel like it's too slow to obtain tickets now. Previously I'd get about 5-10 per day, while the last few days it's been around 5-6 max. Today I've got only 3 new tickets.

Some have been popping up on random fights, though that's well... random and not something you can rely on 😑 It's about doing well in contests now too, in that regard.

1 hour ago, Zorba the Geek said:

As the drop rate for the single epic orbs is quite low, I imagine that the x10 Epic orb would be like finding gold, as GeorgeMTO implied re. the f2p player chances.

On my own journey, my luck in single-spin Epic Pachinko continues with the orb system, as the following from my Lili account will testify:

Two of these were obtained through Epic Pachinko with orbs and the third (Halloween Housemaid) was obtained through Mythic Pachinko.

Then there was this little stroke of luck in my Hernie Hynde account:

These three were courtesy of Epic Pachinko orbs.

So it's probably beginner's luck and I suspect the drop rate for orbs will reduce over time as people are hooked into the system, assuming they have the same kinds of early successes as I had.  All in all, though, I'm happy about the change.  No surprise there!  My only disappointment was the odd artwork for Kenzie and Minerva.

Re. the 10 spin orb, does this allow one to obtain more than one girl? One can only obtain one girl per x10 spin under normal circumstances (5400 koban spend).

Quite a streak! I've only gotten one girl from the orbs, so far... my very first epic one.

The 10 spin orb is a 10 spin orb, why would it allow more than one? 🤔

[DHarry]

2 hours ago, Zorba the Geek said:

As the drop rate for the single epic orbs is quite low, I imagine that the x10 Epic orb would be like finding gold, as GeorgeMTO implied re. the f2p player chances.

On my own journey, my luck in single-spin Epic Pachinko continues with the orb system, as the following from my Lili account will testify:

Two of these were obtained through Epic Pachinko with orbs and the third (Halloween Housemaid) was obtained through Mythic Pachinko.

Then there was this little stroke of luck in my Hernie Hynde account:

These three were courtesy of Epic Pachinko orbs.

So it's probably beginner's luck and I suspect the drop rate for orbs will reduce over time as people are hooked into the system, assuming they have the same kinds of early successes as I had.  All in all, though, I'm happy about the change.  No surprise there!  My only disappointment was the odd artwork for Kenzie and Minerva.

Re. the 10 spin orb, does this allow one to obtain more than one girl? One can only obtain one girl per x10 spin under normal circumstances (5400 koban spend).

I've had 22 spins with 'free' orbs so far. 0 girls, lots of useless nonsense, a few useful equipment. 

I imagine the droprate of single spins went down considerably now that they give it away for free. It was already a bad investment for 540 kobans, but now it just seems insane to pay that much for a single epic spin. 

[Karyia]

9 minutes ago, DHarry said:

I imagine the droprate of single spins went down considerably now that they give it away for free. It was already a bad investment for 540 kobans, but now it just seems insane to pay that much for a single epic spin. 

Well, assuming what you say is true, for sure it would be. We should be able to know more about the droprate, with time.

I just hope it isn't as bad as mythic. I've gotten nice items from it but still, it would be nice to get a girl, of course  

[Zorba the Geek]

2 minutes ago, Karyia said:

Well, assuming what you say is true, for sure it would be. We should be able to know more about the droprate, with time.

I just hope it isn't as bad as mythic. I've gotten nice items from it but still, it would be nice to get a girl, of course  

I think I'm a bit of a tin-ass re. Pachinko.  I've had three girls from Mythic Pachinko so far, but a huge pile of useless avatars in between. I discovered the boosters were very handy for The Leagues when I had my brief fling with it, getting up to Dicktator I.  I found I was going through a few too many kobans to buy boosters so I had to give it a break.  With the new orb system I've had 4 girls from it in two accounts.

I suspect that others might not be having much luck through the new orb system, given that I've been successful in only two of my accounts.  The others yielded a few legendary equipment items, but mostly low value legendary gifts which I can readily afford to buy anyway.  The drop rate for girls using free orb drops seems much better than for Mythic Pachinko (so far anyway - but early days).  MyP is a system I simply cannot become enthusiastic over.

[DvDivXXX]

40 minutes ago, DHarry said:

I've had 22 spins with 'free' orbs so far. 0 girls, lots of useless nonsense, a few useful equipment. 

I imagine the droprate of single spins went down considerably now that they give it away for free. It was already a bad investment for 540 kobans, but now it just seems insane to pay that much for a single epic spin. 

27 minutes ago, Karyia said:

Well, assuming what you say is true, for sure it would be. We should be able to know more about the droprate, with time.

I just hope it isn't as bad as mythic.

4 minutes ago, Zorba the Geek said:

The drop rate for girls using free orb drops seems much better than for Mythic Pachinko (so far anyway - but early days). 

1/ There is no reason to suspect either drop rate has been changed whatsoever. It seems very pessimistic to me to assume that they would lower the drop rate because they give free spins away from orbs now. That would defeat the purpose of introducing orbs in the first place, and be a really evil move, and that sounds ridiculous to me. Beyond that, I have yet to see or hear of the devs ever lowering any drop rate anywhere in the game (let alone without announcing it). Drop range has been changed (improved! actually) in at least one case (the monthly 12-day event, this very month, going from 1-6 to 2-8), but that's all. Suspicions of drop rates being lowered is typically a knee-jerk emotional reaction to bad streaks due to natural variance on a small sample size (which fits DHarry's post like a glove). Such claims have always been unfounded and proven wrong so far (not just in this game, mind you, but in fairly much any game with drop rates). So I would tone down the paranoia on that. ^^

2/ Drop rate for a girl with a MPx1 spin is estimated at below 1% but above 0.5%. Some claim 0.6%, but I'm not sure we have enough data to be that precise. The ballpark is definitely right, though. There have been enough tests and consistent records of free spins with each rotation to be confident about that (we've had 54 rotations so far; you can check the dedicated thread if you want). The avatar drop drate is just about 50%. So yeah, you're going to get a lot of avatars from your MPx1 orbs before you drop a girl (on average). No surprise there.

3/ I have less verifiable information about the drop rate for a girl with an EPx1 spin (experts, please feel free to confirm or correct me; you guys know who you are ^^), but what I've consistently heard from various, mostly reliable sources, is that it's estimated either at around 6.5% or at "about 1 in 12" (which would be 8.33% if I calculated this correctly, so a more generous, but also less precise estimation). In any case, it's vastly superior to the drop rate for MPx1, that's for sure. Also, the MPx1 drop rate is so low it's almost negligible, whereas the one for EPx1 is decent enough to yield solid results over time. I think that's obviously why MPx1 are treated as lower value rewards compared to EPx1 in the system; it's not just because the spin costs more kobans to buy, it's simply much better.

If anecdotal evidence helps (psychologically, not statistically, duh), I've gotten 2 girls from my 4 EPx1 spins so far (insanely good streak, I know, but it puts DHarry's bad one in perspective, right?) vs a whopping 0 girls from my 54 MP free spins.

[Zorba the Geek]

3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

1/ There is no reason to suspect either drop rate has been changed whatsoever. It seems very pessimistic to me to assume that they would lower the drop rate because they give free spins away from orbs now. That would defeat the purpose of introducing orbs in the first place, and be a really evil move, and that sounds ridiculous to me. Beyond that, I have yet to see or hear of the devs ever lowering any drop rate anywhere in the game (let alone without announcing it). Drop range has been changed (improved! actually) in at least one case (the monthly 12-day event, this very month, going from 1-6 to 2-8), but that's all. Suspicions of drop rates being lowered is typically a knee-jerk emotional reaction to bad streaks due to natural variance on a small sample size (which fits DHarry's post like a glove). Such claims have always been unfounded and proven wrong so far (not just in this game, mind you, but in fairly much any game with drop rates). So I would tone down the paranoia on that. ^^

2/ Drop rate for a girl with a MPx1 spin is estimated at below 1% but above 0.5%. Some claim 0.6%, but I'm not sure we have enough data to be that precise. The ballpark is definitely right, though. There have been enough tests and consistent records of free spins with each rotation to be confident about that (we've had 54 rotations so far; you can check the dedicated thread if you want). The avatar drop drate is just about 50%. So yeah, you're going to get a lot of avatars from your MPx1 orbs before you drop a girl (on average). No surprise there.

3/ I have less verifiable information about the drop rate for a girl with an EPx1 spin (experts, please feel free to confirm or correct me; you guys know who you are ^^), but what I've consistently heard from various, mostly reliable sources, is that it's estimated either at around 6.5% or at "about 1 in 12" (which would be 8.33% if I calculated this correctly, so a more generous, but also less precise estimation). In any case, it's vastly superior to the drop rate for MPx1, that's for sure. Also, the MPx1 drop rate is so low it's almost negligible, whereas the one for EPx1 is decent enough to yield solid results over time. I think that's obviously why MPx1 are treated as lower value rewards compared to EPx1 in the system; it's not just because the spin costs more kobans to buy, it's simply much better.

If anecdotal evidence helps (psychologically, not statistically, duh), I've gotten 2 girls from my 4 EPx1 spins so far (insanely good streak, I know, but it puts DHarry's bad one in perspective, right?) vs a whopping 0 girls from my 54 MP free spins.

We're never going to know the truth about drop rates because this is HH's best kept secret.  I wasn't being paranoid, but, I admit, a bit cynical.  This is a gambling game and is how gambling games typically work on the introduction and promotion of new features.

There is another thing that might apply (I say 'might' because I'm by no means certain) and that is a suspected and specific algorithm that analyses one's status re. the accumulated shard level for a girl.  I've noticed that when I get a girl into and beyond x90 the shard drop rate mysteriously falls away, encouraging me to spend kobans to put me 'out of my misery' and finally get the girl.  More times than I can remember I've had girls sitting in the nineties and not a shard drop for 60 or more tries, and I have a shelf in most accounts full of 'if-onlys' where I finished an event with girls on x96, x97, x98 and x99.  They were 'certs' with supposedly enough kobans to play with, but no.  I spent my last kobans trying over two or three refills to no avail.  If shards did drop their values would be only x1 or x2.  As I said, I have no proof except dubious anecdote, but it is a frustrating pattern for me and was especially apparent for Epic Days, Legendary Days and Foreplay.  The most recent classic event broke this trend with pretty reasonable drop rates and good shard value drops throughout the event.  This was announced and lived up to the patch notes.

I read somewhere but I can't remember where, but a researcher had analysed gambling patterns and found consistencies in the general patterns I described.

You're absolutely right about the luck aspect because, as I had said, this very lucky pattern for me applies to only two accounts this event (coinciding with the introduction of the orbs) and mysteriously this has carried through to high accumulated shard values compared with the less successful accounts.

And it varies in other ways too.  I have repeatedly described my Lili account as a dead loss, but it's now Lili's place in the sun with a great run of successes over the last three events.  Adrian'smole had been top until three months ago when it fell off.  First place most recently was Peregrine Took, but this account has fallen away too to be replaced at the top by my newest accounts, Lili and Herbie Hynde.  So randomness and luck are there, but it has always been very patchy for me and each account seems to have its turn.

[DvDivXXX]

5 hours ago, Zorba the Geek said:

We're never going to know the truth about drop rates because this is HH's best kept secret.  I wasn't being paranoid, but, I admit, a bit cynical.  This is a gambling game and is how gambling games typically work on the introduction and promotion of new features. (...)

We might not have official numbers for everything (although we do for a few things), but for most features we have very stable estimations, proven right over time and a large enough sample size. As for the conspiracy theory about hidden algorithms designed specifically to alter the drop rate of specific players in certain situations so as to drive them mad... Hahaha. No. Just no. It's the video game equivalent to the subliminal messages that you can only hear by playing the vinyl record backwards at half speed, but somehow still affect your subconscious when listening to the record normally... It's full force paranoia.

Beyond that, your anecdotal evidence from your multiple accounts' small sample size is as good as a demonstration as any of the natural variance everyone can see, but only players who pay attention and who don't believe in superstitious narratives (or Skynet-like technology from a small company) actually do acknowledge as such.

Last but not least, it's only a gambling game if you treat it as such. I treat it as a fun, not too time-consuming tamagotchi with a good amount of strategy, mainly in terms of long-term planning and resource management. I also experienced the specific type of bad run you're referring to (all players have) when you're very close to completing a girl. It is particularly noticeable, emotionally-charged and memorable because of its bad timing, but it's certainly nowhere near as consistent as your own confirmation bias is telling you. Also, I've never finished an event with a girl at 99%, and I never will. That's where the long-term planning and resource management I was talking about come into play (also risk assessment, odds evaluation, and other strategic aspects that usually escape players with more of a gambling tendency, or, to put it gently, perhaps a more instinctive approach). I don't ever put myself in a situation where I have to rely on luck alone to not lose, so it's not a gambling game to me. If you want peace, prepare for war. If you want a good run, make sure you have enough kobans to recover from a bad one first. Otherwise, yeah, you're gambling, so it's a gambling game to you.

Edited February 20, 2020 by DvDivXXX

[GeorgeMTO]

25 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

As for the conspiracy theory about hidden algorithms designed specifically to alter the drop rate of specific players in certain situations so as to drive them mad... Hahaha. No. Just no. It's the video game equivalent to the subliminal messages that you can only hear by playing the vinyl record backwards at half speed, but somehow still affect your subconscious when listening to the record normally... It's full force paranoia.

Yvan Eht Nioj

[Karyia]

Well, going into suggestion territory, you might as well update the weekly rewards as well and throw in a few orbs here and there (or everywhere 😂), for sure over the surprise boxes, which are mostly useless.

Would also suggest that an event pachinko orb is available/gettable per event (it just seems to make too much sense)... maybe have some sort of (hard?) goal that unlocks it?

I think it would be interesting to try and find a way of getting x3 and x6 mythic orbs while fighting a boss in an event and get shards for the respective girl, or at least, to a girl in the event 🤔 I know it doesn't work that way but it would still be sweet if something like that would be possible 😅 

Not really sure about the great pachinko orbs, except for them to be sort of random bonus orbs to get here and there  

[LanceHardwood]

On 2/20/2020 at 6:51 AM, Karyia said:

Some have been popping up on random fights, though that's well... random and not something you can rely on 😑 It's about doing well in contests now too, in that regard.

That's something to think about as well. Previously we would get about 3 contests per 2 days, now it's 1 each day. So that's a 33% percent reduction in ticket influx right there. Then 2 tickets less from the Arena. Combined with the orb vs girl fiasco, this seems like a trend of making champion farming harder for whatever reason, when it was plenty hard already. Now you have to practically save up a week worth of tickets to advance 1 stage on the harder champions. What's with that ?

[GeorgeMTO]

31 minutes ago, LanceHardwood said:

That's something to think about as well. Previously we would get about 3 contests per 2 days, now it's 1 each day. So that's a 33% percent reduction in ticket influx right there. Then 2 tickets less from the Arena. Combined with the orb vs girl fiasco, this seems like a trend of making champion farming harder for whatever reason, when it was plenty hard already. Now you have to practically save up a week worth of tickets to advance 1 stage on the harder champions. What's with that ?

It was much closer to 3 per 3 days IMO, since contests could last 2, 3 or 4 days. That would definitely drag the average duration above 2 days.

[LanceHardwood]

13 minutes ago, GeorgeMTO said:

It was much closer to 3 per 3 days IMO, since contests could last 2, 3 or 4 days. That would definitely drag the average duration above 2 days.

Weren't there 1 day contests as well ?  My average was very close to 2 days, I rarely had 3 day contests and don't even recall getting 4 day ones. Whatever the case, my experience before these recent updates, is that I used to get close to twice the amount of tickets per day.

[Falco82]

I agree with George, the number of contests has remained unchanged, indeed the rewards have increased.

The only negative is that before, contests with similar requests could occur simultaneously, so the same action (attacking a troll, give exp to a girl...) had an impact on more rankings with consequent saving of resources, but nothing more than that.

Personally, I haven't even seen this "noticeable reduction in tickets" that you are talking about. I always drop a lot of them and I find them punctually in daily missions too. They are no longer as the final prize of the arena, ok, but this doesn't mean that the champions become impossible to do or in any case more difficult.

Has there been a decrease in the Ymens? I don't know, surely increasing the girls obtainable and the use of resources have simply increased the expenses and therefore the Ymens are less but also here I don't see the end of the world, I only see having to learn to change your game method based to the variations that are inserted, that's all.

[Zorba the Geek]

My luck continues!  In Lili too.  I got this strangely gothic creature in a free orb spin in EP.  That makes 4 new girls from a free spin in EP since it started relatively recently. I know it probably can't continue, but it's fun while it lasts.

To the person who commented on my statement on gambling, I play for fun too, but I can still get hooked into the excitment from time to time.  For me it's more curiosity and impatience than anything.  I've wasted a few kobans on just this kind of weakness! Lol.

[GeorgeMTO]

6 hours ago, LanceHardwood said:

Weren't there 1 day contests as well ?  My average was very close to 2 days, I rarely had 3 day contests and don't even recall getting 4 day ones. Whatever the case, my experience before these recent updates, is that I used to get close to twice the amount of tickets per day.

No there was not. Honestly, I find your experience to be bullshit if you think there were 1 day contests, and never getting 4 day contests. Everyone on the server received the same contests for the same duration. If your memory of that is unreliable, I don't think you're very reliable for your ticket accumulation either.

[LanceHardwood]

5 minutes ago, GeorgeMTO said:

No there was not. Honestly, I find your experience to be bullshit if you think there were 1 day contests, and never getting 4 day contests. Everyone on the server received the same contests for the same duration. If your memory of that is unreliable, I don't think you're very reliable for your ticket accumulation either.

I could say the same about you, being that I'm 100% certain I have received at least 1 single day contest, which I did find odd at the time. Honestly, I find your tone to be bs. Just because you're level whatever doesn't give you the right to invalidate other people's experience with a single sentence. Please don't bother replying, my original post wasn't meant for you anyway mr. High Roller.

[DvDivXXX]

4 minutes ago, LanceHardwood said:

Just because you're level whatever doesn't give you the right to invalidate other people's experience with a single sentence. (...) mr. High Roller.

I think you're mistaken on the origin of George's confidence when it comes to information about this game. He's one of the most knowledgeable and experienced players on this forum, and probably in the game, period. He may lack diplomacy sometimes, but he knows what he's talking about, and after answering a billion noob questions over a long period of time, I can understand his lack of patience for inaccurate affirmations.

I'm very sure you remember the previous contest rotation wrong as well. We had a constant revolving door of contests that lasted either 2, 3 or 4 days each, averaging to roughly 1 per day. I remember this very clearly and I've only been playing since August 2019. I might be wrong, but I think you're a bit newer than me. Kindly consider the possibility of your own memories being fuzzy, rather than everyone else, including very well informed veterans like George collectively remembering things wrong.

[LanceHardwood]

24 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

Kindly consider the possibility of your own memories being fuzzy, rather than everyone else, including very well informed veterans like George collectively remembering things wrong.

I have considered, but given the fact that I pay specific attention to contests and champions, I find it more likely he's just not paying that much attention to them anymore. As for the single day contest, I distinctly remember it exactly because it did seem odd at the time.

Furthermore, disrespectful behavior shouldn't be excused, regardless of reasons or provocation. In that respect, I do regret the latter part of my previous comment.

Edited February 22, 2020 by LanceHardwood

[DvDivXXX]

1 hour ago, LanceHardwood said:

given the fact that I pay specific attention to contests and champions, I find it more likely he's just not paying that much attention to them anymore.

Even if that was the case (which it's not, I'm pretty sure), you're talking about how things have been for over a year until a fairly recent patch. George was there the whole time, and certainly paying enough attention to remember the facts clearly (whereas you weren't there for most of that period, if I guessed correctly). More importantly, it's not just George's memory that contradicts yours. It's also mine, and shal's (see that little WTF? emoticon on the two posts in which you told us about your memories of single-day contests, no 4-day contests, and getting an average of 3 contests every 2 days? that's from another very knowledgeable player), and everyone in my club, and most likely on the forum as well... How do you write that off? If you're going by most likely, then it's the one guy who remembers things differently who's the most likely to be mistaken, wouldn't you agree?

1 hour ago, LanceHardwood said:

Furthermore, disrespectful behavior shouldn't be excused, regardless of reasons or provocation. In that respect, I do regret the latter part of my previous comment.

Sure. It's best when everyone gets along and no one gets irritated. However, nobody's perfect, and we do have our fair share of forum regulars who very persistently make posts that physically hurt other forum regulars (myself included) through the sheer amount of facepalm they generate. So, sometimes, the regulars whose forehead hurts from all the facepalm aren't as diplomatic as they could be, or would like to be (myself included). Having said that, calling your incorrect memories and insistence on them being accurate "bullshit" isn't a huge affront either. He could have chosen a more polite phrasing, but it's not that big a deal imho. Try not to take offense, and focus on the important part: you remember the previous contest format wrong.

Edited February 22, 2020 by DvDivXXX

[GeorgeMTO]

43 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

More importantly, it's not just George's memory that contradicts yours. It's also mine, and shal's (see that little WTF? emoticon on the two posts in which you told us about your memories of single-day contests, no 4-day contests, and getting an average of 3 contests every 2 days? that's from another very knowledgeable player), and everyone in my club, and most likely on the forum as well... How do you write that off? If you're going by most likely, then it's the one guy who remembers things differently who's the most likely to be mistaken, wouldn't you agree?

Wait, I think I may have figured it out. He's possibly referring to the Thursday right after the patch where we had the old contests still running, and we started getting contests that last only 1 day. If that is the case his memory isn't unreliable, but his ability to apply logic would be, since that's obviously just wonky patch overlaps.