need advice about mythyc farming cost

[DuDeLoK]

Thats whats written in Mythic event topic. but mb something changed since then or people have more accurate statistics. To be safe all other times i was farming mythic when was with 5 perfumes +10k gold to spend so dont count actual gold spend.
Right now will need to farm 90 more shards because only got 10(5x2) so far. Will have 7918 gold for sure (mb +100-150 extra gold from random raid rewards) after deducting perfumes cost (1 used+4 in stash). Will get extra 64 combativity for sure till end of day.
(10800-2700)*0.9=7290 gold
So it looks like i have enough gold(barely) to farm it based on copypasted message but would like to hear advice.

Edited March 5, 2023 by DuDeLoK

[holymolly]

I´m not quite sure what you´re trying to ask for ..but well..If you want to go for the mythic make sure to have 5 boosters ready and at least 10k kobans if you wanna make sure..even that might sometimes not work out. That would be my suggestion

[Methos2]

13 hours ago, DuDeLoK said:

This is based on the average drop rate. With variance, MD can cost a lot more. My average drop rate for MD is 7.04%. My best was 8.44% and my worst was 4.96%. Looking at my worst case, it costed me 13,587 kobans if I didn't have saved CP and SP. Like Holy said, you should have 5 SP and have the resource to do 10k kobans worth of fights.

I used Sex Friends rewards twice to finish MD. If you are in a jam and have available Sex Friends offers, that may help.

[jpanda]

I was reflecting today that I have heard the 10k spending before but I decided a while ago to save 17k (10k + 7.2k for the end of month event OR a huge buffer) before I committed to trying for a mythic.  This one cost me over 11k so I'm glad I saved.  One of my club mates has 50-70 shards from 5-7 different mythics (each) and to me that's all wasted time/effort/money.  If you're not going to get them, IMO, save for the next.  "Barely" IMO is nothing if you fail (immediately, there is a revival chance tho I find the revival shards go super quickly and don't count on them myself).

Disclaimer: My 10th mythic, so nowhere near as serious as some of the folks around here, but I'm a semi-casual

[DuDeLoK]

i just wanted to confirm that farming math so i dont make mistake. and as i say mb with more time spend on event farming people have more actual statistics than the one i copypasted. also to listen to advice so i got what i wanted to ask.

finished all possible Sex Friends missions and was waiting if suppot would help with bugged ones... and they did!!! Huge help from them coz was thinking that on weekend i wont be able to reach them. Was going to slowly try farming with 8k gold to see if my luck is ok or terrible and mb stop midway if she unreachable. Wanted her a lot because have 0 playful Mythics and she is 4 colour and also nice art.

Edited March 6, 2023 by DuDeLoK

[Liliat]

Il y a 3 heures, Methos2 a dit :

This is based on the average drop rate. With variance, MD can cost a lot more.

Average, but also without taking any free combativity into account. 11k Kobans (including the 5 SP) is actually on the safe side if you're not going all brute-force on Day 1 with x50 rolls. Of course, it never hurts to save an additional 2k, 5k or 20k. Just to be extra safe.

I did the math a while ago, and 11k Kobans with optimal spending (saved combativity + 3 days of regen + x1 fights) granted something like 99% chance to get the girl (Or was it 99.9%? Can't remember for sure. But it was pretty safe).

Il y a 17 heures, DuDeLoK a dit :

Will get extra 64 combativity for sure till end of day.
(10800-2700)*0.9=7290 gold
So it looks like i have enough gold(barely) to farm it based on copypasted message but would like to hear advice.

Since you already have 10 Shards and 64 extra combativity, this means you can get up to ~735 Combativity for 90 shards. You need a 6.12% drop rate to make it work. That's lower than average (so you "should" be fine), but that's not a big margin (For safety, I typically go for 5.0-5.5% "worst case" drop rates)

I like your chances, but wouldn't bet everything I have on you. If you can find another 1700 Kobans somewhere (Sex friends?), go for it without hesitation. Otherwise, fingers crossed.

Since Esme is a very good mythic girl (blessings-wise), I would try it regardless. Worst case, you'll have to wait 1 year to finish the last ~10 shards.

[Methos2]

9 minutes ago, Liliat said:

I did the math a while ago, and 11k Kobans with optimal spending (saved combativity + 3 days of regen + x1 fights) granted something like 99% chance to get the girl (Or was it 99.9%? Can't remember for sure. But it was pretty safe).

I had low drop rate twice that would have cost more than 11k kobans in addition to 3 days of natural regeneration. I've always used x1 fights. Maybe I'm just unlucky. Saying saved combativity is also not quantifiable. Most players can get a mythic with 11k but I wouldn't call it pretty safe. It's still a gamble.

[Liliat]

il y a 15 minutes, Methos2 a dit :

I wouldn't call it pretty safe. It's still a gamble.

Sure, you can call it that. I'm just going for numbers, not arbitrary definitions. And there is obviously no guarantee to ever get the girl; there's no limit to how bad luck can get.

Best I can do is measure how bad your luck would have to be to miss the girl with any given number of fights. Even cost can't be easily measured, because players can waste kobans in many ways (Not having enough stored combativity; going all-in on day one and skipping natural regen; fighting the wrong boss for 10 minutes; playing x50; ...)

So, from the numbers point of view only, what does it take to get 50 Drops (5x SP) for one mythic girl, assuming a 7.0% drop chance? (Note: 7.0% is the general consensus, but we also have no definite answer about that. I'll also add a more conservative 6.5% below).

In 100 Million runs, here are the results:

Avg: 714
Median: 710
Best: 291
Worst: 1411
33% High: 669
33% Low: 753
25% High: 646
25% Low: 777
20% High: 631
20% Low: 795
15% High: 611
15% Low: 815
10% High: 593
10% Low: 842
5% High: 562
5% Low: 882
1% High: 508
1% Low: 961
0.1% High: 452
0.1% Low: 1055

But then, maybe I'm kinda lucky and the actual drop chance is closer to 6.5%. Let's see. Only 10 Million runs this time:

Drop chances: [MD: 6.5%]
--- Fights ---
Avg: 769
Median: 764
Best: 349
Worst: 1447
33% High: 720
33% Low: 811
25% High: 696
25% Low: 837
20% High: 680
20% Low: 856
15% High: 658
15% Low: 878
10% High: 638
10% Low: 907
5% High: 605
5% Low: 950
1% High: 547
1% Low: 1035
0.1% High: 486
0.1% Low: 1137

So we have a 0.1% worst case (1 in 1000) at either 1055 fights or 1137 fights, depending on the drop chance. Let's take the worst case scenario and see what it would cost:

- 1137 Fights for 50 Drops: 4.39% drop rate
- Natural regen: 162 (That's the bare minimum, if you didn't plan anything)
- Refills: 975
- Cost: 10530 Kobans
- SP Cost: 2700 Kobans
- Total Cost: 13230 Kobans

That's the worst of the worst case scenario: low drop chance and low actual drop rate, no preparation whatsoever (Again: by playing terribly bad, you can always make it infinitely worse. By having infinitely bad luck, you can also get worst results. All you can do is define a reasonable threshold (Here, 0.1% low: 1 in 1000 worst case) and see what it takes to reach it.

So yes, 12 000 Kobans (Inc. SP) and a bit of planning is definitely on the safer side: you have at least 999 out of 1000 chances to succeed. It's a gamble I'm willing to make. Doesn't mean I'll win it every single time.

Anything beyond that, and you should consider two things:

- Today wasn't your day. Better luck next time. Shit happens.
- Are you sure you did everything right, to put all the chances on your side?

[DuDeLoK]

got very lucky farming it. spend natural gained combat of this day and got to 22 shards. so need to get 39 more times drop of it. spend only 4966 gold to get those 39 drops!!!
writen how much fights it take me to get each drop(mb some mistakes in it being distracted and miscounting a little)



so overall spend ~7600 gold

Edited March 6, 2023 by DuDeLoK

[Methos2]

38 minutes ago, Liliat said:

So yes, 12 000 Kobans (Inc. SP) and a bit of planning is definitely on the safer side

1 hour ago, Liliat said:

11k Kobans with optimal spending (saved combativity + 3 days of regen + x1 fights) granted something like 99% chance

You are getting more and more off track. The original question was whether 10800 kobans (750 fights + 5 SP) is enough for MD. First you said 11k Kobans with optimal spending (saved combativity + 3 days of regen + x1 fights) gives 99%. That's already more than 750 fights. Now, you adjusted to 12k kobans + planning (again not quantifiable).

Throwing bunch of numbers without explanation doesn't tell us anything. If the drop rate is 7%, why are the number of fights between 291 and 1411?!

2 out of my 16 mythics cost more than your 11k + natural regen threshold. That's 12.5%, not 1%. Or do you think I got bad drop rates because I play terribly bad? 🙄

[Liliat]

il y a une heure, Methos2 a dit :

You are getting more and more off track. The original question was whether 10800 kobans (750 fights + 5 SP) is enough for MD

Okay, more details:

- With an expected Drop Chance of 7.0%, the 0.1% worst Drop Rate is expected at around 4.4%. The 1% worst is expected at 5.20%. The 5% worst is expected at 5.67%

- DuDeLoK needs 90 Shards (45 Drops) and has 64 Combativity + 675 potential from refills

- With these values, he'd need 45 Drops in 739 Fights, or 6.08% Drop Rate. That's around the 15% worst case, so he has ~85% chance of getting the girl with these odds. Thus my reply:

Il y a 3 heures, Liliat a dit :

That's lower than average (so you "should" be fine), but that's not a big margin (For safety, I typically go for 5.0-5.5% "worst case" drop rates)

Then, you quoted the part where I mentioned "a typical MD requires 10800 Kobans inc. 5 SP", which is based on the "perfectly average case" (700-750 fights, 5SP) with 0 free combativity. From there, you said "it can cost a lot more". Can it? Sure. Will it? Unlikely. Then I explained why it's unlikely to cost "a lot more" (and how bad your luck or planning would have to be to cost "a lot more"). Here, we're not talking about DuDeLoK's situation anymore; we're talking about a standard MD. Everything below this point is unrelated to DuDeLoK's question (But gives the general idea how to determine your actual chances, in your own specific situation at any point during MD).

il y a une heure, Methos2 a dit :

First you said 11k Kobans with optimal spending (saved combativity + 3 days of regen + x1 fights) gives 99%

Yes. What's wrong about that?

Basic saved combativity include:

- 20/20 start

- 162 Natural regen (Let's remove 10 because you don't want to finish one minute before reset, so let's make it 152).

- 20 from Daily Reward?

- 5+10+16 from Season? (Current month). Up to 81 (Previous month) if you don't spend that for CE in the first couple of days

- 55 from PoA?

- Between 0 and 38 for PoV?

So you get anywhere between 172 and 366 free combativity. If you're planning for 1% worst (961 fights), that's anywhere between 595 and 789 fights you need to purchase (depending on how much free combativity you managed to stockpile). That's anywhere between 6426 and 8521 Kobans, +2700 SP (9126~11221).

If you really want to be extra conservative, you'll plan for 6.5% drop chance and 0.1% worst case instead, which results in the 13k-ish Kobans I quoted instead. 12k fits right in between these 2 scenarios with no planning (And it's super safe either way if you stored some combativity, as this will easily save you 1-2k Kobans).

How is any of that incorrect, or how are any of these scenarios contradicting each other? There's just one "bad case" (safe planning), and one "worst case" (safer planning).  Pick your poison.

il y a une heure, Methos2 a dit :

If the drop rate is 7%, why are the number of fights between 291 and 1411?!

The drop chance is 7% (Or 6.5%). Drop rate is an individual value that will vary based on your luck at the time. We all play by the same rules (7%), but we all get different results (5~9% typically). 291 and 1411 are extreme values (Out of 100,000,000 simulations, a single "person" got the girl in 291 fights, and a single one got the girl in 1411 fights). The first one is the lottery winner; the second one probably shouldn't have played on a Friday 13th*, after meeting a black cat under a ladder while smashing his pocket-mirror on the floor.

* Yes, playing MD on Friday 13th is usually a very bad idea, superstition or not.

il y a une heure, Methos2 a dit :

2 out of my 16 mythics cost more than your 11k + natural regen threshold. That's 12.5%, not 1%. Or do you think I got bad drop rates because I play terribly bad? 🙄

2 out of 16? Now that's a valid sample size that allows us to draw general conclusions. I mean, it's so absurdly absurd I don't even know what to say. So I'll just quote myself:

Il y a 2 heures, Liliat a dit :

Anything beyond that, and you should consider two things:

- Today wasn't your day. Better luck next time. Shit happens.
- Are you sure you did everything right, to put all the chances on your side?

[Methos2]

 

11 hours ago, Methos2 said:

This is based on the average drop rate. With variance, MD can cost a lot more.

7 hours ago, Liliat said:

Average, but also without taking any free combativity into account.

10600 kobans is the cost of 700 fights with refills and 5 SP for 7.1% drop rate. 10800 kobans is the cost of 750 fights with refills and 5 SP for 6.7% drop rate. We both agree that's average. We all understand that koban spending drops if you have free CP. Having free CP or not, you still need 714 fights for a 7% drop rate.

7 hours ago, Liliat said:

11k Kobans with optimal spending (saved combativity + 3 days of regen + x1 fights) granted something like 99% chance to get the girl

Question isn't whether or not 11k kobans plus saved CP and regen is enough. If you have saved 1000 CP, you won't need to spend more than the boosters. Saying things like saved CP and better planning are not quantifiable and they are irrelevant here.

6 hours ago, Methos2 said:

I had low drop rate twice that would have cost more than 11k kobans in addition to 3 days of natural regeneration.

5 hours ago, Methos2 said:

2 out of my 16 mythics cost more than your 11k + natural regen threshold. That's 12.5%, not 1%.

750 fights (11k kobans) plus 3 days of regen (162 fights) is 912 fights. That's 90% chance for getting the girl with your data, not 99%. With 10% chance not getting the girl, that's not a good odds for MD when we have to spend some serious kobans. Also, my historical 12.5% chance of doing more than 912 fights fits close to your data. Why did you even insinuate that I got bad drops because I can play terribly bad?

6 hours ago, Methos2 said:

Most players can get a mythic with 11k but I wouldn't call it pretty safe. It's still a gamble.

Back to the subject. With a 6.7% drop rate, one would need to fight 750 times and spend 10800 kobans (again nothing to do with saved CP, regen, or planning). Using your data, that's 33% chance where it wouldn't be enough to get the girl. I don't think anyone would call this pretty safe. So yeah. MD can cost a lot more than 10800 kobans.

Edit: updated 3rd paragraph.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Methos2

[Liliat]

il y a une heure, Methos2 a dit :

750 fights (11k kobans) plus 3 days of regen (162 fights) is 912 fights. That's 90% chance for getting the girl with your data, not 99%

Closest values are:

- 1% low with 7.0% Drop Chance: 961 <<<< My target value (11 221 Kobans for 789 Refills + 172 Free fights)

- 5% low with 7.0% Drop Chance: 882

- 5% low with 6.5% Drop Chance: 950

- 10% low with 6.5% Drop Chance: 907 <<< Your target value (10 800 Kobans for 750 Refills + 162 Free fights)

So we have several differences that explain the different results:

- I assume a 7.0% drop chance by default, whereas you go for a more conservative 6.5%. Makes sense considering our respective experiences so far (My all time average is at 6.92% and my lowest at 5.81%, but I'm still not able to confidently say if the theoretical chance is 6.5, 6.75 or 7.0).

- I assume 172 Free fights instead of 162, because I always start MD with a full bar (So 20/20 + 3x54 = 182. I remove 10 fights because I like to finish a few hours before the end, so I can't rely on natural regen for these few hours).

- I round 11 221 down to 11k, you round 10 800 up to 11k. I guess technically, I round a bit more aggressively than you do? 😛

il y a une heure, Methos2 a dit :

Question isn't whether or not 11k kobans plus saved CP and regen is enough. If you have saved 1000 CP, you won't need to spend more than the boosters. Saying things like saved CP and better planning are not quantifiable and they are irrelevant here.

That's not 100% true. There is a limit to the resources you can get for free on a monthly basis, and it's pretty consistent month to month. Of course, depending on which events you go for, you can have saved more or less combativity. When I started playing MD, I ignored all of CE, OD and LD, and was keeping all the free combativity for MD. So I was closer to the 300 free points (3000 Kobans saved per month). Now, I spend equally in CE, OD, LD and MD, so I use my free points in whichever event is happening at that time. So I'm now closer to the 172 free combativity (243+6 this month, without stacking anything from February). But this is directly related to one's playstyle and priorities, so it's not irrelevant, and 100% worth mentioning. The more resources you save for MD, the cheaper it gets, but you need to make sacrifices in other parts of the game.

There is one source that I intentionally do not consider, and it's the Pantheon combativity: it's a huge source, but it's limited (1350 points available from floor 1500 to 2000, if I'm not mistaken). I always count this separately because it's a one time thing, and not a monthly income. But PoA, Daily Rewards and Season always perfectly fit in our monthly schedule, and we can reliably include them (If this matches our play style. Doesn't match mine anymore). PoA and PoG are a bit more of a hit-and-miss, so it's up to each player to decide if they want to plan with or without these resources. Still, it's very important, because these are options you NEED to consider to get cheap MD (if you're on a budget). On a (kobans) budget, you HAVE TO make choices; whether to spend these resources on CE/OD/LD or MD.

(Note: all of these sources are free; I don't include paid paths or card. For PoA, I include a wide range, from 0 to 38, because it depends on many factors: did you have time to reach higher tiers, did you buy the paid path, etc.)

Il y a 1 heure, Methos2 a dit :

Back to the subject. With a 6.7% drop rate, one would need to fight 750 times and spend 10800 kobans (again nothing to do with saved CP, regen, or planning). Using your data, that's 33% chance where it wouldn't be enough to get the girl. I don't think anyone would call this pretty safe. So yeah. MD can cost a lot more than 10800 kobans.

If you purchase 100% of your combativity, that's true. But I would certainly label that as "poor gameplay" (Although it's more of a matter of choices and priorities, I guess?). In a game where 90% of the gameplay is about planning where and when to spend your hard-earned and limited resources, taking the koban-brute-force-day-1 option doesn't seem the smartest to me, and there for sure exist ways to make it a lot cheaper

(The most expensive of my 22 SP Mythic girls cost me 9 665 Kobans. Bunna and Lupa were in the 16k-17k range, but SP booster didn't exist yet, and I smashed the x50 button. And I don't think I'm exceptionally lucky. However I do plan a lot, and save at least some resources for this event).

[Methos2]

 

13 hours ago, Liliat said:

- 1% low with 7.0% Drop Chance: 961 <<<< My target value (11 221 Kobans for 789 Refills + 172 Free fights)

13 hours ago, Liliat said:

- 10% low with 6.5% Drop Chance: 907 <<< Your target value (10 800 Kobans for 750 Refills + 162 Free fights)

Now you just making stuffs up. Where are the 172 and 162 free fights coming from?! None of this was mentioned above. I repeatedly said that free fights should not be included and the average drop rate is 7%. I pointed out your errors with your own data. Now you are padding numbers to try to justify your points.

The OP question was whether or not he has enough kobans for MD. He took the worst case scenario in the above statement. That's where 10800 kobans came from. This is the cost of 750 fights using refills (8.1k) plus the cost of 5 SP boosters (2.7k).

The average cost of MD is 10.4k kobans. That's the cost of 714 fights using refills (at 7% drop rate) and 5 SP boosters. That doesn't mean everyone spend this much even if everyone got 7% drop rate. We know we can subtract the cost of available CP and boosters from it. We can do the math for our own situations. Saying MD costs 10.4k kobans is an understanding, just like saying LD girl costs 5400 kobans.

22 hours ago, Liliat said:

11k Kobans with optimal spending (saved combativity + 3 days of regen + x1 fights) granted something like 99% chance to get the girl

Saying 11k kobans with saved CP is a meaningless statement. One player can have 1 saved CP while another have 1000 saved CP. Those with over 1000 CP wouldn't even need to use kobans.

14 hours ago, Liliat said:

The more resources you save for MD, the cheaper it gets

Telling us to use saved CP and to plan better is unhelpful and irrelevant to the question. Consider the following: 14k kobans and fighting the right villain granted 99% chance. Or 20k kobans and playing with your eyes closed granted 0% chance. Although both statements are true, both are useless information to the question of whether 10800 kobans provides a good odds.

15 hours ago, Liliat said:

If you purchase 100% of your combativity, that's true. But I would certainly label that as "poor gameplay"

No one said to use refills 100% literally. Stop twisting the words.

[Liliat]

il y a 10 minutes, Methos2 a dit :

Now you just making stuffs up. Where are the 172 and 162 free fights coming from?! None of this was mentioned above. I repeatedly said that free fights should not be included and the average drop rate is 7%. I pointed out your errors with your own data. Now you are padding numbers to try to justify your points.

Come on. At least try to read. I explained every single difference. Quoting it again because it's so difficult:

Il y a 16 heures, Liliat a dit :

- I assume 172 Free fights instead of 162, because I always start MD with a full bar (So 20/20 + 3x54 = 182. I remove 10 fights because I like to finish a few hours before the end, so I can't rely on natural regen for these few hours).

(And I never diverged from this. Always assumed 172 free fights to be the bare minimum for anyone trying).

[DvDivXXX]

Errr... Guys? I think both of you already went way beyond and above what Dudelok hoped for.

This thread is slowly but surely turning into a @Methos2 vs@Liliat debate by now, which wouldn't be an issue in and of itself, this is QA after all and most of what you're discussing here is interesting and can be useful for some players to read.

Having said that, it's getting a bit heated and I'd rather not see it turn into a fight. Especially not since you guys largely seem to agree on the most important points, and you're each trying harder and harder to convince the other about some details, if not outright semantics by now. Very TL;DR I feel Liliat is getting a bit laser-focused on the global, hypothetical perfect storm scenario (and the strict rules and tough choices thereof). Methos is more focused on the average case, allowing more wiggle room for preferences in play patterns that diverge from the theoretical "optimal play", perhaps a bit too much. Most players will fall somewhere in the middle in practice (and not necessarily at the same point every time even for the same player), and both perspectives are valid.

Please don't fall into the trap of treating each other as enemies and descending into less and less cordial exchanges over this. It's not worth it and it only seems to make you both pissed off at one another. Not to be the oblivious mom who doesn't want to pick a side and just want her kids to make up and move on, but... Kinda. ^^ Love you both. Won't blame either of you. But could you please shake on it and cut each other some slack? Thanks in advance, guys. ❤️