September Epic Days Discussion

[Jared201992]

Just now, Zorba the Geek said:

Are you talking about the original Justine - the version some of us are trying for?  Prior to the rarity system, yes she was up there all right and I was envious that I didn't have her in a HC account.  If she were promoted to 5 stars she would be well worth having on our teams.  This might give her a purpose in life and 'settle her down' so to speak.

Dude, she has been promoted to 5 stars. Are you playing on the test server?

[Zorba the Geek]

6 minutes ago, Jared201992 said:

Dude, she has been promoted to 5 stars. Are you playing on the test server?

Really?  Wow, that snuck up on me, just like when Solveig was upgraded.  Yes I am trying out the test server.  Thanks for the tipoff.

Yep, checked it out in the one account I have her and the two extra vacant stars are there.  I wasn't that interested cos I'm KH in that account.  I've been concentrating on bringing Atila up to speed.  Okay, I'm trying for her in earnest now in my hardcore accounts!!

Edited September 25, 2018 by Zorba the Geek
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[Jared201992]

1 minute ago, Zorba the Geek said:

Really?  Wow, that snuck up on me, just like when Solveig was upgraded.  Yes I am trying out the test server.  Thanks for the tipoff.

Here. See?

Edited September 25, 2018 by Jared201992

[Badhead]

I have to say, I loved this event. The possibility of getting pachinko girls without throwing kobans into the pachinko machine was a huge draw for me. And I ended up spending 10k kobans on refills. Go figure. 

[GarfEild]

19 hours ago, Zorba the Geek said:

It might be changed from event to event.  The two girls on offer were top-tier epic which means they might've been significantly harder to get, so it stands to reason that the drop rate was lowered accordingly.  This is always a speculation, however, because HH have a neither confirm nor deny policy about drop rates.

Having said all that, I have Norou (legendary KH) in all six of my accounts.  I had her in four before the revival and got her in the remaining two second time around.  It might be simply a random quirk or something is going on, but it is rather interesting.  Why should a legendary girl be easier to get than an epic?

As someone with three five star Legendaries, two of which I got during the Legendary Revival? I think that is exactly the case. If nothing else, my luck was better there than it has been in either Epic Days. As for why, I have no idea. The only thing I can come up with is that somehow the enormous costs of upgrading legendaries is beneficial to devs. Do people actually spend kobans to do that? I never have, but I guess some would.

[Jack_HH]

16 hours ago, Zorba the Geek said:

That's a very expensive use of kobans for one girl, just to clear a bit of space in EP to get event exclusives!  In my calculation, this would've given you a 10x EP spin for a guaranteed girl, plus almost another 3 spins, with a good likelihood of getting another girl...

Well, yes, it's a very expensive use of kobans now that I know that she costed me 7K, but considering past experiences, I was expecting to spend no more than 3K on the girl. The problem is that when you already expended a good amount of kobans there's just no turning back: Let's say that I quit after expending 3K seeing as I didn't get the expected results, I would still pay 5,400 for her if I get her on EP, for a total of 8,400 kobans. Besides, according to the law of probability of consecutive events, each consecutive failure increases the chance of a success, which means that after my 3K investment my chances increase exponentially, so quitting after an important koban investment isn't really an option.

Now, if Kinkoid really decreased the drop rate during this event, then, from the beginning, there was a high danger that I would expend many thousands of kobans if I wanted to force the drop, and I might have done better while taking my chances on the EP. But how to know if Kinkoid has never released the drop rates? One can only assume that all unknown variables remain the same and build a strategy with the given information. 🤷‍♂️

[Hank1]

9 hours ago, GarfEild said:

As someone with three five star Legendaries, two of which I got during the Legendary Revival? I think that is exactly the case. If nothing else, my luck was better there than it has been in either Epic Days. As for why, I have no idea. The only thing I can come up with is that somehow the enormous costs of upgrading legendaries is beneficial to devs. Do people actually spend kobans to do that? I never have, but I guess some would.

Same for me.....

[windia]

One of the events I was glad the "fight a boss ten times with one click"-feature has been introduced.

[Zorba the Geek]

On 9/26/2018 at 2:21 PM, Hank1 said:

Same for me.....

I've never upgraded using kobans (and I have Norou at 5 stars in two accounts, 4 stars in another and 3 stars in the fourth  - and these latter two ready for their upgrades).  However, to upgrade legendaries to 4 stars requires 9m and to upgrade them to 5 stars, 18m.  This is still cheaper than it would've cost me to upgrade Samane to 5 stars before the introduction of rarity for the girls.  I was close to spending the 6k in kobans to upgrade Samane then the rarity system came into being and I was saved!

For the legendaries, it can be done with cash, but it takes ages and requires monumental patience and discipline (ie, avoiding upgrading any new girls until the 9 or 18m cash is available and the legendaries are upgraded).  Once you get to a certain level (say, halfway to the target) then a psychological barrier is passed and it becomes easier and encouraging:  "If I could get halfway then I can make it the rest of the way."

Jack_HH said that the not knowing is what might make people take the risk of using kobans on the basis of uncertainty.  I think Kinkoid's policy of not notifying us of drop rates nor even hinting that they might've been changed from event to event was deliberate to encourage a gambling culture in us.  In this case it is not risk-taking of spending the money for no result that dominates our thinking, but the subtly different psychology of feeling the need to keep playing if the risk of not doing so means that we miss out on that girl.  This is classic gambling mentality and most of these games rely on it, as well as playing on our impatience to see results.  That's why it becomes progressively harder to win girls as we advance through the game.  With beginner's luck under our belts we are encouraged to keep going if it was so easy in the beginning.

I think that Epic Days event is a classic example of this in operation.  Previous events (even legendaries) had been a walk in the park to get girls in comparison and we were all caught out by the change.  By this time many players wanted to maintain the hit of getting girls, so they spent up large.  Some were successful, others weren't because of the cruel and indifferent nature of the RNG.

It is obvious to me that, from the number of kobans used as reported by some players, these would have had to have been purchased using real money.  Unless you're a genius in the ToF and can win lots of kobans then this is the only conclusion I can reach for the rest of us - to buy kobans.

Some have given me a strong indication that they are hooked into the gambling side of this game by fearing of missing out if they decide to stop trying (as I suggested above).  Many, of course, did miss out even though they might've spent 10k+ kobans in the trying.  I, on the other hand, represent that group of most hated players, as far as Kinkoid might regard us, because, ever since the first Levitya days when I blew 7k worth of kobans in each of my hardcore accounts for no positive outcome, I have refused to recharge combativity in this way and choose instead to take my chances.  If they drop they drop.  If they don't they don't.  Most of the time it works out and I succeed in both event girls on offer in 5 out of my 6 accounts at a rate of 20 times every 10 hours.  Yes, I have 6 accounts (3 of which were passed on to me by the females in this household) and this has turned out to be a way for me to spread risk and increase my chances.  So I admit that I come from another perspective and may not, therefore, appreciate the gambling addictive allure of this game as it might afflict other players with only one account.

I'm not going to judge anyone for their despair at spending so many kobans for no results because by the grace of God go I in this regard.  I have to fight the temptation every time I play for girls and I fear that one day I might succumb, as I did in the first Legendary Days.  I feel very, very sorry for those who missed out and my sympathies go out to you all.

[Zorba the Geek]

I should've perhaps started a new topic for this, but I want to compare the September Epic Days apparent drop rate with this current event, Nymphobies' Horde.  So far it's barely through Day one of the event and I have both girls in my Peregrine Took account, one in Bryan and one in Lili.  I just hope it isn't a false start, but so far so good.  However, if the trend from past events continues there will be one account where I will be left empty-handed, but it will be for a different account.

I'm pretty certain the drop rate was reduced dramatically for the Epic Days event and that it was lowered further than intended given that it was easier to recruit the legendary girls (for me, Norou) and this should not've been the case.  Unless, of course, it was a cynical ploy to get us to buy and use kobans and, given the nature of many postings for this topic, this seems to be borne out.  I call it the 'gambling uncertainty principle' and it's an age-old trick game developers use.

[Janaff]

10 hours ago, Zorba the Geek said:

I should've perhaps started a new topic for this, but I want to compare the September Epic Days apparent drop rate with this current event, Nymphobies' Horde.  So far it's barely through Day one of the event and I have both girls in my Peregrine Took account, one in Bryan and one in Lili.  I just hope it isn't a false start, but so far so good.  However, if the trend from past events continues there will be one account where I will be left empty-handed, but it will be for a different account.

I'm pretty certain the drop rate was reduced dramatically for the Epic Days event and that it was lowered further than intended given that it was easier to recruit the legendary girls (for me, Norou) and this should not've been the case.  Unless, of course, it was a cynical ploy to get us to buy and use kobans and, given the nature of many postings for this topic, this seems to be borne out.  I call it the 'gambling uncertainty principle' and it's an age-old trick game developers use.

I think you were just unlucky. During the 4 days I got Katherina with free fights and spent just a few hundred kobans to get Notka (already had Celsius, Shao, and Treasure; and Octavia is kinda ew). Considering that during regular 14-day events I generally expect up to a week to get 1 of the 2 girls and I've even had times where it takes 10-12 days for just 1, getting any girl at all in 4 days without spending kobans is pretty solid luck.

Edited October 2, 2018 by Janaff

[Zorba the Geek]

57 minutes ago, Janaff said:

I think you were just unlucky. During the 4 days I got Katherina with free fights and spent just a few hundred kobans to get Notka (already had Celsius, Shao, and Treasure; and Octavia is kinda ew). Considering that during regular 14-day events I generally expect up to a week to get 1 of the 2 girls and I've even had times where it takes 10-12 days for just 1, getting any girl at all in 4 days without spending kobans is pretty solid luck.

With one account it's hard for you to assess this, but I run 6 accounts and I managed to get Octavia and Katharina in only one account each.  Those two accounts where I was successful are where these girls were most useful: Octavia in a weak KH account and Katharina in an equally weak HC account.

I'm generally quite lucky and, so far in the current event, it looks to be heading the same successful way.

Each to his own I suppose but I'm a fan of Octavia; unusual, yes, but she's a real sweetie and surprisingly lovely.  To those who like to compare her with Gork they are comparing apples and oranges.  One is basically androgenous and a man in disguise (apart from the boobs) and the other is quite feminine, kind and a little naive.

[GeorgeMTO]

Zorba as we've said before, 6 accounts is still barely measuring RNG. Please stop making baseless statements about them reducing the drop rates. You seem to lack a comprehension of how randomness works.

[Zorba the Geek]

On 10/3/2018 at 2:51 PM, GeorgeMTO said:

Zorba as we've said before, 6 accounts is still barely measuring RNG. Please stop making baseless statements about them reducing the drop rates. You seem to lack a comprehension of how randomness works.

You're worse than Chthugha in terms of barely tolerant indulgence of my point of view, bordering on arrogance.  It's not just 6 accounts I have compared, but all events since April when I started keeping a record.  I am well aware of how randomness works and how it might be possible to toss six heads in a row, for example.  A good definition of randomness is that it can neither be predicted nor explained, but I would suggest that the RNG is not true randomness, despite what's in its name.  It can be manipulated.  The term 'nerfing' comes to mind.  Occasionally comes an admission from Kinkoid that this occurs and that they can mess it up, such as with the first Legendary Days.

So far by Day 4 in the current event and I have Morgane in 5 accounts and Asha in 4, and at least one girl in every account.  I'm on track to record my best result since April of this year.  This is in stark contrast to the September Epic Days event where, after 4 days, I only managed to get Octavia and Katharina in one account each.  Sure, it might be like tossing a coin and getting heads 6 times in a row, but it might be something else.  I think it's something else, but we'll never know because HH have a neither confirm nor deny policy unless it's impossible for them to escape what's in front of their noses (such as 61 pages of mostly complaints to have to consider following all the hype over Levitya).

I'm a little cynical when it comes to 'randomness' generated artificially and it's related to the fostering of a gambling behaviour that can occur.  With a few exceptions (such as this current one), for events and revivals I've noticed that girl drops are most likely to occur on Days 1 to 2.  Then there's mostly a drought until Day 5 after which drops usually resume in dribs and drabs, probably based on the number of times the trolls have been played from the start.  There is definitely an advantage in setting up an RNG in this way according the the following psychological pattern: Early wins = encouragement to keep trying even if no further drops occur > Spend kobans to try to maximise one's chances of getting a drop and if you don't keep playing there is a fear that you'll miss out altogether.  I've read this into people's responses time and time again and it's left me feeling sad for them.

One thing to look for... Keep an eye on the starburst pattern with a win and see if you can predict when a drop is most likely to occur.  I've been keeping a record of this since April and the results are quite interesting.  I might detail them some time, but in the September Epic Days, this starburst pattern was mostly unchanging and only varied around the time when the two drops occurred - before and after (even when there are no girls to collect, this variation in starburst pattern can occur - there are about six different patterns, only one of which seems to be related to drops).

I'll leave it at that for now.

[Chthugha]

5 minutes ago, Zorba the Geek said:

I'm a little cynical when it comes to 'randomness' generated artificially and it's related to the fostering of a gambling behaviour that can occur.  With a few exceptions (such as this current one), for events and revivals I've noticed that girl drops are most likely to occur on Days 1 to 2.  Then there's mostly a drought until Day 5 after which drops usually resume in dribs and drabs, probably based on the number of times the trolls have been played from the start.  There is definitely an advantage in setting up an RNG in this way according the the following psychological pattern: Early wins = encouragement to keep trying even if no further drops occur > Spend kobans to try to maximise one's chances of getting a drop and if you don't keep playing there is a fear that you'll miss out altogether.  I've read this into people's responses time and time again and it's left me feeling sad for them.

If you just look at it mathematically, it's very clear that drops on day 1 and 2 are the most prevalent in general.
With every day passing, the expectancy of you getting a girl goes down, because you have fewer fights left.
At the start of the event, that expectancy is just the highest.
Knowing that most people will start on day one and continue to fight until they have the girls or the event end, the amount of players that still need a girl keeps dropping throughout the event in a very non-linear fashion.

To most people that sounds counter intuitive, but that's just how it works.

[trunks2585]

Personally I think it's good for everyone to report their winnings/losses and number of fights.  As the mods have said, 6 accounts is only a handful of info, but the more people that are reporting the better we can get a feel for how the event went.  We'll never get a full representation as not every player that's active communicates on the forum/discord, but we can at least take what we can get.  Namely I look for the early first day posts to see if an event is busted or not, and down the line to see if the early winners are exceptions to the rule and if most people complain about blowing an absurd amount of kobans for nothing.  Usually it seems to be 'average'.

[[CNO] BananaJoy]

where is my popcorn