Don't do X10 Villain Combats

[Pelinor]

It's a suggestion, something seems off when it comes to the shard drop rate and the x10 combats. And I have to admit the data set is way to small to show one way or the other.

10 single combats = 15 shard drops.

50 combats (5 X10 rounds) = 0 shard drops.

So take this for what it's worth and feel free to add to the data set.

[lepidocter]

It's not off, I suppose. I did 5 sequences of 10x battles without a single drop just today.

I suspect a larger dataset will show an average: I also did 4 extra 10x battles and collected 60 shards, compensating the whole.

Probably is a matter of perception.

 

 

[DvDivXXX]

How do I put this gently? 🚬

This sample is so tiny even you perceived its statistical irrelevance when you typed up this post, so... Yeah, it's not worth anything, and it doesn't mean anything (especially not compared to the massive data sets shared by the community for years by now). Unless you cross the border into superstitious territory, in which case you're absolutely free to avoid the x10 button if it makes you feel better. But we can't condone a PSA based on your bad beat, either... ^^

So, yeah. It's not the x10, it's you. Sorry, man. I'll move this to QA if you want to vent a bit more or if you have a genuine interest in improving your perception of odds-based events, instead of closing it outright. But I can't leave "don't use x10" as a "suggestion" for all to see. Cheers.

[FinderKeeper]

I'll just add that likelyhood of getting no shard drops from x10 with 10% drop chances are around 0.34 or about 1 in 3 tries. Getting five of those in a row is around 0.005 or about 1 in 200 - rather low but still possible. (Unless I screwed up with the math)

Again I'll provide a sample of how it can look like:

(10% chance, 2-8 range, 48+6 rolls per line, 20 lines)

I doctored the sample a bit - I had to rerun the script many times to have several mostly empty lines in the sample as well as "good" clusters. 

[Rylarth]

Thats just a prime example of what I would classify as a Dry streak i usually only notice those during mythic Days when I have a larger sample size most times during mythic days i get a dry streak of 100-150 battles Without shards it eventually evens out to the confirmed droprate though🙂

[DvDivXXX]

Exactly. All part of normal and expected variance with any odds. Even the 50% chance of a coin flip won't necessarily show itself in a sample until it gets large enough. Flip a coin 10 times? You might get anything from 0 heads 10 tails to 10 heads 0 tails. 100 times? It'll get closer to 50/50 but it could still be pretty far off. A million times? Now, we're talking. You'll get something within the 45/55 range if not closer to the expected average of 50/50.

Also, the smaller the odds, the bigger sample needed to see the pattern emerge from it. Because variance.