What is the chance for shard dropping from non-final stages of champions in events?

[Honza]

I understand that it's random and not guaranteed, but specifically in this event, I did three non-final stages already and didn't get any shards yet.

[DvDivXXX]

It's a 50/50 every time.

So you can literally apply the vast literature on stats for coin flips to your odds of getting shards 3 times from these, and estimate from there how many tries you'll need on average, and how far down the rabbit hole a bad streak can take you.

Edited April 6, 2023 by DvDivXXX
updated

[Magic1986]

This event can screw you over big time. This time i got the girl after 3 wins. In the last events  got something like 35 shards after 4 wins, 35 shards after 5 wins. Seems like i am on the bad luck side.

Should be 50% chance to get shards. Feels more like a 33% Chance.

[DvDivXXX]

That's what I was hinting at. Regardless of how it feels, the naked truth is that it's not worth the investment in the long run, unless you already pay a substantial monthly subscription that allows you to attack champions in bulk without paying kobans for it, then you might as well give it a try every time.  If you're in the vast majority of players who need to invest a lot of time and/or kobans to make these champion cycles (and tickets, but that's not an issue), then you're better off considering that girl another pachinko exclusive and sparing yourself the hassle. That's what I've been doing at least.

If memory serves, you need at least 6 tries but more realistically 9 tries to get a decent shot at it. Since you can only get 4 tries in a row then you have to do the empty run for 10 Kisses to get access to 4 more, and unless you also throw kobans away to avoid the 24-hour waiting times in between, you can barely reach that over the duration of a CE (and not even close to that for an OD). And this doesn't by any means guarantee the girl.

[Magic1986]

Normally im skipping this girls do. I have no monthly card, so the fighs are soemwhat expensive. I tried it because i got 35 shards on the first fight. After the next 35 on the second fight i went in and got her. Skipped all the other girls before.

Not worth it.

[OmerB]

11 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

That's what I was hinting at. Regardless of how it feels, the naked truth is that it's not worth the investment in the long run, unless you already pay a substantial monthly subscription that allows you to attack champions in bulk without paying kobans for it, then you might as well give it a try every time.  If you're in the vast majority of players who need to invest a lot of time and/or kobans to make these champion cycles (and tickets, but that's not an issue), then you're better off considering that girl another pachinko exclusive and sparing yourself the hassle. That's what I've been doing at least.

If memory serves, you need at least 6 tries but more realistically 9 tries to get a decent shot at it. Since you can only get 4 tries in a row then you have to do the empty run for 10 Kisses to get access to 4 more, and unless you also throw kobans away to avoid the 24-hour waiting times in between, you can barely reach that over the duration of a CE (and not even close to that for an OD). And this doesn't by any means guarantee the girl.

I've been going after them in each CE and OD since I started playing, without using kobans, but just tedious clicking in each 15 minutes. I got many of them.

The chance of *not* getting 3 drops from 8 attempts is pretty small. I may try to calculate it exactly as an exercise of combinatory math.

Edit: I got it from a club mate, haven't done the full calculation by myself, but according to her, if you make 8 fights on CE (including 5th stage), you have a probabilty of 70.31% of getting the girl. That's not so bad.

Edited April 7, 2023 by OmerB

[Honza]

8 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

That's what I was hinting at. Regardless of how it feels, the naked truth is that it's not worth the investment in the long run, unless you already pay a substantial monthly subscription that allows you to attack champions in bulk without paying kobans for it, then you might as well give it a try every time.  If you're in the vast majority of players who need to invest a lot of time and/or kobans to make these champion cycles (and tickets, but that's not an issue), then you're better off considering that girl another pachinko exclusive and sparing yourself the hassle. That's what I've been doing at least.

If memory serves, you need at least 6 tries but more realistically 9 tries to get a decent shot at it. Since you can only get 4 tries in a row then you have to do the empty run for 10 Kisses to get access to 4 more, and unless you also throw kobans away to avoid the 24-hour waiting times in between, you can barely reach that over the duration of a CE (and not even close to that for an OD). And this doesn't by any means guarantee the girl.

I see I was lucky when I got the girl sometimes in previous CEs.

It would still make sense if the girl would appear again later either on champion or normal fight, but I wasn't able to find any pattern in THAT.

[DvDivXXX]

2 hours ago, OmerB said:

just tedious clicking in each 15 minutes.

Yeah. That's why I covered both already. ^^

10 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

a lot of time and/or kobans to make these champion cycles

It's great if you have the patience and availability to click once every 15 minutes for days on end, and you end up getting freebies here and there thanks to it. But that's not the case for most players (I think), and definitely not for me at least.

[Chbass]

I used to get these girls quite easily, but I feel like the odds have gone down significantly. Or I'm going through a big period of bad luck. For the current girl and the previous one, I got 35 shards after 8 wins (none after 4 wins for the current girl).

[bolitho76]

With a 50% chance to get only 1 success out of 8 is a possibility of ca 0,78% - So ca. 8 players out of 1.000 will have this experience. Some time ago we got the information that ca. 40.000 players at hh.com. So you can expect that every CE 320 players will have the experience that they will get only 1 drop even they beat the champ every day.

That's the problem with the 50:50 chance. Every single spin is 50:50 and it's not uncommon to have a longer streak - in the good and in the bad direction. 🙂

Edited April 7, 2023 by bolitho76
Liliat pointed out a mistake I had made one of my oldest problem with math: slip of the pen

[Liliat]

il y a 2 minutes, bolitho76 a dit :

So ca. 8 players out of 1.000 will have this experience. Some time ago we got the information that ca. 40.000 players at hh.com. So you can expect that every CE 32 players will have the experience that they will get only 1 drop even they beat the champ every day.

I think you forgot a 0; unless you assume that 36 000 players will simply not bother with the event (Which is maybe not too unrealistic 😛 )

[DvDivXXX]

If you want to have fun solving equations (or looking them up, I wasn't joking about there being a vast scientific literature about coin flips, since it's the simplest and oldest case of odds-based mechanics), I think the million koban question to answer would be: what are the odds of not getting at least 3 heads out of 8 coin flips?

I've browsed a bit, and I stumbled upon scary-looking equations already, and a few bits of interesting info but not exactly this. For instance, one thread concluded that to get 3 heads in a row, on average you'd need 14 coin flips. Which is as good a reminder as any of just how lucky those who report getting 3 consecutive shard drops out of their total of 3 tries are, I guess.

[Liliat]

il y a 10 minutes, DvDivXXX a dit :

I've browsed a bit, and I stumbled upon scary-looking equations already, and a few bits of interesting info but not exactly this. For instance, one thread concluded that to get 3 heads in a row, on average you'd need 14 coin flips. Which is as good a reminder as any of just how lucky those who report getting 3 consecutive shard drops out of their total of 3 tries are, I guess.

I don't have the formula/equation available, but I did the math when we were looking for drop rates back in the day. I only went up to 5 rounds though (6-1), as that's we can typically do without refills:

So let's add 6, 7 and 8 proper rounds (ignoring 5th stage that always gives nothing):

Citation

With 5 Fights

- 50% to get 105 Shards

- 31.25% to get 70 Shards

- 15.625% to get 35 Shards

- 3.125% to get 0 Shard

With 6 Fights

- 65.625% to get 105 Shards

- 23.4375% to get 70 Shards

- 9.375% to get 35 Shards

- 1.5625% to get 0 Shard

With 7 Fights

- 77.34375% to get 105 Shards

- 16.40625% to get 70 Shards

- 5.46875% to get 35 Shards

- 0.78125% to get 0 Shard

With 8 Fights

- 85.546875% to get 105 Shards

- 10.9375% to get 70 Shards

- 3.125% to get 35 Shards

- 0.390625% to get 0 Shard

[Chbass]

Il y a 8 heures, Chbass a dit :

I used to get these girls quite easily, but I feel like the odds have gone down significantly. Or I'm going through a big period of bad luck. For the current girl and the previous one, I got 35 shards after 8 wins (none after 4 wins for the current girl).

And the 9th attempt is still unsuccessful! 🙃 I have no more chance to get the girl back for free, so I give up! 

[jelom]

It is just a binomial with p=0.5

you can do some tests here

https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/bin.html

The case with 9 tries and 2 or less hits have around 9% probability.

[Chbass]

Le 07/04/2023 à 16:45, Chbass a dit :

And the 9th attempt is still unsuccessful! 🙃 I have no more chance to get the girl back for free, so I give up! 

So I continue my super unlucky streak through ODs, with a 10th consecutive unsuccessful attempt... 😱

[Chbass]

Il y a 23 heures, Chbass a dit :

So I continue my super unlucky streak through ODs, with a 10th consecutive unsuccessful attempt... 😱

And finally the bad run came to an end! ✌️