Tenou Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 (edited) Epic days failure. Well, epic failure for those of us who didn't get sh*t, their strategy of making you want the girls and not giving them to you to lure you into spending real money on Kobans must have been quite profitable. Why do you think they make so many events? All of them have the same mechanic I just mentioned, but the system is designed so you don't lose all the time to keep you hooked Edited September 23, 2018 by Tenou 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wertyu Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 (edited) 12 minutes ago, LordRagy84 said: you had 1000 k kobans ? as in 1.000.000 kobans ? as in 1 milion man give me link to the hack site you used whoops my mistake, lol, i spent just over a 1000 koban on refills on Harem H and 3000 to 4000 kobans on Hentai H, Edited September 23, 2018 by wertyu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator holymolly Posted September 23, 2018 Moderator Share Posted September 23, 2018 (edited) Eventhough the last 2 days where horrible (compared to the first day), I got pretty lucky. HH - Stats: Girls total: 7 , Epic: 3 (Katharina(227), Octavia(12), Notka(58), already had Shao) Worlds: 4 (Salem(35), Stephanie(138), Marina(266), Leedit(42)) tried for but didn`t drop: Sailor(70) and Treasure(503) total kobans: 7363 (every girl (exept Marina, she dropped at about 5k) dropped on day one within 4353 kobans) kobans per girl: 1052 kobans per epic girl: 2454 kobans spent since last drop: 3010 kobans left, when decided to stop: 6699 Nutaku: Girls total: 4 (all epic, since I already had every girl exept Finalmecia once`s) Epic: Katharina(329), Octavia(46), Notka(on the first fight!), Treasure(172)) tried for but didn`t drop: Sailor(263) and Shao(12) total kobans: 1256 (all drops on day 1 (exept Treasure, she dropped at about 800 ish) within 500 kobans kobans per (epic) girl: 314 kobans spent since last drop: about 450 kobans left, when decided to stop: 845 Well.. eventhough I wish that the other 2 girls left would have dropped, it`s still a win for me this time 😁! Edited September 23, 2018 by holymolly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cantrix Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Zorba the Geek said: There is a problem with that scenario. The event girl drops are random and the rate is flat. This means that your chances are the same however many times you play. The RNG resets at each play and has no memory of your attempts. I messed up my calculations... again!! It didn't look right at all and I double checked. Here are the amended figures... Sorry, but my maths sucks some times. I'll give you one example of how this might play out (addmittedly from a low sample) from my six accounts. During the retro-future girls event I failed to get either girl in one particular account over 14 days, but got both of them in every other account. That's 336 hours of playing (or 672 half hour intervals, and thus 672 chances over the event). Of course it would've been less cos I fell asleep a couple of times so I could've lost (say) 20 chances, but this was offset a little by gaining 2 combativity points for 8 wins in the arena each day for some accounts, and I was asleep for the other accounts as well. But not a single drop in that one account in question. I somehow suspect that if I'd invested kobans to recharge combativity the outcome would've been the same, based on the stark contrast with other accounts. On the other hand, I might've had a drop. We can't be sure. This tells you something about the quirk of randomness and how unfair it is. This is why some people spent 12k+ kobans and still had no luck in the epic event, but tin arses like me managed to score both girls in two separate accounts using only the natural refill rate (192 chances). This suggests to me that the drop rate for each girl is much less than that (1 in 6 in fact for me, or 1 drop every 1,152 plays). Of course, because of the random nature of the RNG, all these calculations are rather academic and bear no mathematical precision - only a probability which is what is catching out so many people. That's why I prefer to take my chances on natural refills and have the philosophical approach that if I win I win, if I don't too bad. I keep my kobans for EP and my gamble there is in single spins. All considered, I've had more luck in EP than in these short events, even with single spins which has so far yielded a success rate of 1 in 7. Sometimes for 10 single spins I can get 2 girls so it's worth taking the chance, even if I might get 10 epic items at other times. Thems the breaks. Yes, i know the chance doesn't increase with each try that's why i multiplied the numbers to account for that, though the number of fights is still monstrous. I had an idea that drop chance isn't equal for all players(accounts), but i've got no proof for this except the vast difference in drops between different accounts. A low drop chance and luck can be a big factor and can explain some people getting 1 girl easily while others having a big trouble. But this can't explain why some people got multiple girls while others had trouble geting even one(luck can't explain the difference in those case) I think you are onto something Even if there was some factor preventing some people of getting girls, Kinkoid will just brush it off like always, saying no no there's no such thing its just luck. So the problem is, how do you know that you are on forced loss roll or your drop rate is normal? Edited September 23, 2018 by Cantrix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Real Vincent Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 2 accounts, zero girls. Worst event ever for me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordRagy84 Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 (edited) Aaaaaand i think i may get the banhammer (or the you missed the topuc mail .... again) for my previous comment so i'm gonna stop now Edited September 23, 2018 by LordRagy84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cantrix said: Yes, i know the chance doesn't increase with each try that's why i multiplied the numbers to account for that, though the number of fights is still monstrous. I had an idea that drop chance isn't equal for all players(accounts), but i've got no proof for this except the vast difference in drops between different accounts. A low drop chance and luck can be a big factor and can explain some people getting 1 girl easily while others having a big trouble. But this can't explain why some people got multiple girls while others had trouble geting even one(luck can't explain the difference in those case) I think you are onto something Even if there was some factor preventing some people of getting girls, Kinkoid will just brush it off like always, saying no no there's no such thing its just luck. So the problem is, how do you know that you are on forced loss roll or your drop rate is normal? Even if they prove that it's completely random, people will still not believe it and say things like this. Every feedback here is based on someone's personal experience and the experiences of others confirming it. There's no reason not to believe it's not a "random" process, just because of some peculiar results. The thing about random processes is that you will always have those peculiar results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenou Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 30 minutes ago, Cantrix said: Yes, i know the chance doesn't increase with each try that's why i multiplied the numbers to account for that, though the number of fights is still monstrous. I had an idea that drop chance isn't equal for all players(accounts), but i've got no proof for this except the vast difference in drops between different accounts. A low drop chance and luck can be a big factor and can explain some people getting 1 girl easily while others having a big trouble. But this can't explain why some people got multiple girls while others had trouble geting even one(luck can't explain the difference in those case) I think you are onto something Even if there was some factor preventing some people of getting girls, Kinkoid will just brush it off like always, saying no no there's no such thing its just luck. So the problem is, how do you know that you are on forced loss roll or your drop rate is normal? After all, for them and their partners it's business: if everyone got all girls easily they wouldn't get a cent for their work. They have to implement something to make sure people spend money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unicorn33 Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 I hate these events. Never able to get one girl. It sucks 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headbanger1066 Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Yep not a single girl, blew through a whole pile of kobans. I have spent over $100 on this game, and I won't spend another cent unless things change A LOT. Per-girl price if you buy kobans for roulette is way too high anyway. If cost per girl was lower, they could get way more money out of me, but the way it is, free play is the only way I go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ilkan Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Worst event for me so far. I wasn't able to get a single girl, and the fact that one of them was in Finalmencia really sucks, especially when you have been fighting her for over a month and hasn't dropped any girl. Sometimes I forget this is a game, because sometimes stops being fun and become really annoying. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sovereign RHB Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 (edited) Commiserations to everyone who didn't get a single girl. Better luck next time. But in general I am happy to land just one girl in a 4 day event. I don't know about any calculations but I do know that they rely on the experiences voiced here which is just a small sample of all players and it is a commonly known fact that ppl are sooner to complain than to praise so the opinions here should be considered coloured at the least. Therefor calculations with percentages based on opinions mean very little to me. For those that complain they only got 2 or 3 girls, you must be accustomed to being spoiled in the past because for me that's extraordinary in a four day event. I was very lucky this event - may have been my best ever - as I got 3 girls to drop with only 5 refills. The 1st girl dropped on day 1 after which I did an immediate refill just in case the drops are clustered in time as someone suggested (I'll try anything) and luck had it the 2nd dropped on that refill. I was a very happy camper then. When on day 3 the 3rd girl dropped the refill did not deliver but that's allright. The way I see it I spent about 1000 kobans and got 2 girls more than anticipated. And they're all permanent epic pachinko girls. Had I played epic pachinko 10* It would have cost me 10.000+ kobans and I would have had no say in which girl might drop. (could even have been a regular common boss girl) All in all, I enjoyed this event and for those less lucky: best wishes next time. p.s.: for those who believe in conspiracy theories. You're right! the RNG is rigged. But that shouldn't be a surprise as it is bigfoot rolling the dice and chupacabra calling it in Edited September 23, 2018 by dirty harry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sinner Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 So many girls available for this event and I haven't gotten even a single one. I really wanted to get the Octopussy girl, too, whatever her name was. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiracleMan89 Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Same here blew through over 1000 Koban on refills and not a single girl! That's twice I have failed to get any girl. Both times I used kobans to refill. Usually I use them for epic pachinko. Well i learn my lesson don't spend money and you eventually get the girls. This place is like that story, give a rat a cookie and it will want a glass of milk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHarry Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 1 hour ago, dirty harry said: p.s.: for those who believe in conspiracy theories. You're right! the RNG is rigged. But that shouldn't be a surprise as it is bigfoot rolling the dice and chupacabra calling it in I knew it! A unicorn told me and I didn't believe him... 😐 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cantrix Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Chthugha said: Even if they prove that it's completely random, people will still not believe it and say things like this. Every feedback here is based on someone's personal experience and the experiences of others confirming it. There's no reason not to believe it's not a "random" process, just because of some peculiar results. The thing about random processes is that you will always have those peculiar results. Yeah i pretty much get how randomness works. However it can affect things to a certain degree, meaning even the rng works in a concrete intervals placed by the devs. So if the chance is let's say 1%. Players(not me or any concrete player) are bound to get the girl 1 out of 100 spins. The problem is that there are too many descripancies that randomness can't explain. Let's make a comparison between the accounts who got more than 2 girls with accounts who didn't get even one girl for instance. If the chance is very low(the 1% example) that would explain why many people aren't getting even one girl(statistically it would require up to 10000 tries if you are the person with the worst luck in the world). People will have trouble getting so many girls and the explanation fits perfectly, BUT we have a lot of examples of people who nailed more than 2 girls (with overall little count of tries). Getting a girl with luck is even if the drop rate is 1% is fine, but getting up to 5 girls with less than 200 tries each contradicts with the defined drop rate of 1%. If the opposite was true and the droprate was quite higher than 1%, then getting up to 5 girls within 200fights each is also completely fine, but then again this contradicts with the results of people who have spend more than 10k kobans and failed to get even one. In short what i'm trying to say is: if the drop rate is low, why are so many people getting so many girls with relative ease, if it's normal and higher than 1% then why are some people having trouble getting even one? Randomness should even out things across the player base, but it cannot create such big discrepancy between the players. There's something that the complete random element can't explain. Then again my post wasn't focused on it, but rather on the drop system as a whole and the absurd price of girls(kobans) when there is no guarantee that you will get anything at all. Feel free to correct me if i am wrong, but a set of 5 pictures in a 600x600pixels resolution is by no mean worth 100 euro. The bigger problem is that players tend to compare those events with the usual ones, which have a lot higher drop rates. This is a subtle, but very effective way of incising people to spend a lot more money without assessing their chances correctly, because they don't know the drop rates.They said disclosing droprates would only discourage players, to this i say: What's so bad about informing your player base? Kinkoid are free to place whatever prices they want on their products, but there's fundamental flaw when you are hiding your products behind a random system. For instance the Single Epic Pachinko spin, is a completely random mechanism, but even there you can count the number of items and girls in it and calculate the average chance to get a certain item/girl. Moreover it has an alternative which guarantees a reward, albeit even if it's not what you want. That isn't the case with the epic days, you have absolutely no guarantee you will get something for the money/kobans you are pouring and that's wrong. This tends to disappoint people, rather than make them WOAH that event was awesome. Let's make a comparison with World of Warcraft legendary drops from raid bosses, they work in almost the exact same way. Have an extremely low drop rate(which isn't officially disclosed, but it's relatively precise calculated by wowhead according player's data. You are still paying money to get them(because they are locked by 1 tries a week and players are paying monthly subscription) the difference is, that those items are guaranteed through dedication. The epic days are one time types of events, which means you are able to get them in only 4 days period, whit no chance of repetition if there's no revival the next year(which btw is also absurdly long period). This though is also a pretty well known trick of the trade "the limited time offer" which incites spending. What i was trying to do is not a conspiracy theory, but provide an overview of the system, it's flaws and ways to manipulate players into thinking they are close to getting what they want, when this actually is not true. Also tried to point out the real monetary value behind the system and pricings. If you'd allow me to say it, Zorba the Geek was the one who pointed out the possibility of different drop rates about accounts. And looking at the data available here in the forum seems true. Of course as you pointed out, the number of players that actually post their results is small, but even so randomness can't create such huge discrepancies between players, because with the number of tries done by some players, things are bound to balance themselves, unless there's another mechanic in play which is responsible for the different results. Many people had forgotten about the Legendary days FAQ with the devs, but i remember it and the event well! And seeing another one of it's clones disguised behind the name "epic days" reminds me that many of the questions you asked the devs are still not addressed(not in practice at least) and still hang. Same old song on a new tone i don't see the need to create an epic days FAQ, but will you kindly remind Kinkoid about what they said in this FAQ and how they have taken action to improve the system? Edited September 23, 2018 by Cantrix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cantrix Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 32 minutes ago, MiracleMan89 said: Same here blew through over 1000 Koban on refills and not a single girl! That's twice I have failed to get any girl. Both times I used kobans to refill. Usually I use them for epic pachinko. Well i learn my lesson don't spend money and you eventually get the girls. This place is like that story, give a rat a cookie and it will want a glass of milk. Because the chance to get the girls is pretty low. If it's 1% (1drop out of 100 on average, that means you have to repeat at least 100 times to offset the randomness, because the chance doesn't increase with each roll) so you would need to do up to 10000 battles to get it, which means you may need to spend up to 35k kobans. Do you still feel you were close to get one? Then think again! That's the reason i made my post in the first place, when some people started talking about unicorns and stuff. It's not a mystery it's math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 What you are really after is the probability of a couple of players showing off their good luck on the forum, knowing that the drop rate is <1% (which is the case). The total player base is about 150k players spread over both servers. Most posters here are from this smaller server, so focus on the ~60k active on this server, with just a 100ish players posting on the forum. On a forum like this, the extremes are magnified, leading to very crooked views of the overall system. I rather think this is the case, than some weird prejudiced drop system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanjkame Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Man I really loved the idea of put girls with high level bosses. I understand the situation that many players haven't achieved this worlds yet,but that's why revivals are for. This game already have 2 years,so I think the majority of players is already playing world 9 at least. I really thought I would never fight Silvanus again hehehe(Actually I haven't since I already got Sailor Celsius but you understood) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hollo Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 What Chthugha said. Selection bias is going to be a bitch. People sometimes post when they got a drop early; they sometimes post when they got no drop at all. In both cases, the motivations are slightly different. You might count on posts from people who like to post here a lot, but that isn't necessarily a good sample, since both announcements aren't really dispassionate. The posts in the "You got a girl" thread are probably somewhat more reliable, since people are just trying to post raw numbers. To those who got caught by the end date, thinking the event would run all the way through, my advice is to either check the discord, where players often observe how many hours are left, or to be even more reliable, check the time remaining on epic pachinko. It'll show the exact number of hours, and should always coincide with the event girls going away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ilkan Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 42 minutes ago, sanjkame said: Man I really loved the idea of put girls with high level bosses. I understand the situation that many players haven't achieved this worlds yet,but that's why revivals are for. This game already have 2 years,so I think the majority of players is already playing world 9 at least. I really thought I would never fight Silvanus again hehehe(Actually I haven't since I already got Sailor Celsius but you understood) That'ts why I'm not too upset. I just hope to have more luck when the revival hits (if I'm still playing this when it happens, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhihor_Pupkin Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 Useless event when you participate and don't get a girl. With such a poor chance to get a girl it would have been better to arrange the event in the way like "50 players are randomly chosen and given a girl. Enjoy the event, looser!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordRagy84 Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 (edited) what does "Penalty: Given 0 points which will never expire." means ? and where can i see these points ? h Edited September 23, 2018 by LordRagy84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sovereign RHB Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 (edited) 12 minutes ago, LordRagy84 said: what does "Penalty: Given 0 points which will never expire." means ? and where can i see these points ? h Just right click on your avatar and open in a new window, you will get to your personal screen. 0 points means exactly that: nothing. You probably just got a warning, which you were expecting anyways, reading your last post. Edited September 23, 2018 by dirty harry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordRagy84 Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 1 minute ago, dirty harry said: Just right click on your avatar and open in a new window, you will get to your personal screen. 0 points means exactly that: nothing. You probably just got a warning, which you were expecting anyways, reading your last post. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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