A place for people to share their epic x1 orbs drop info

[Sev]

ORBS update:

46 orbs in 4612 fights (0.997%)

[DvDivXXX]

Ah, finally a new page! ^^

115 orbs in 10,580 battles
074 orbs in 384 missions

Edit 2020/04/26: Either the drop rate was recently increased (which I always doubt when the idea comes to mind) or I've been on a crazy good run lately. Today was also my first time ever having all three daily missions rewarding orbs. Not that I'm complaining, but it's a bit surprising.

Edit 2020/05/07: Nah, it's just variance.

Edit 2020/05/12: Definitely just variance!

Edit 2020/05/16: Yeah, the variance is really really strong. Over time, it balances out and I always tend towards 1%. But I go through looong stretches at 0.8-0.9% and then I catch like 5 orbs in one refill worth of fights and bump up to well above 1%. I guess it's to be expected with such a small drop rate.

Edit 2020/05/21: See? I'm technically under 1% again right now. ^^

Edit 2020/05/24: And I'm pretty far below average on missions, too.

Edit 2020/05/29: Aaaand we're back. ^^ Always in short bursts, after long periods of nothing. Variance.

Edit 2020/06/16: I broke the 10k barrier! Also, crazy good run since my last update yesterday (I think). Variance.

Edit 2020/06/19: Insane good streak for fight drops lately. That's over 8 orbs within the past 200 battles or so. Still pretty low on missions, though.

Edited June 19, 2020 by DvDivXXX
updated

[Karyia]

Ok, got almost a month's worth, so here goes.

18 orbs in 84 missions, of which 12 days gave 1 orb and 3 days gave 2 orbs.

13 days were miserable un-orb days 😤

[Antimon]

LOL I just got 3 epic pachinko orbs in 29 fights against Karole. It's a 10,3% drop rate 😂 

And @Karyia, not to jinx you even more, but before this month entry, your mission orb rate was insane, this one is defintely more normal (sorry, feel free to add an orb or two to the amount that I already have to compensate you 😂😂)

Thanks guys, I'll do the overall update at the end of the month

Edited April 24, 2020 by Antimon

[Karyia]

5 hours ago, Antimon said:

LOL I just got 3 epic pachinko orbs in 29 fights against Karole. It's a 10,3% drop rate 😂 

And @Karyia, not to jinx you even more, but before this month entry, your mission orb rate was insane, this one is defintely more normal (sorry, feel free to add an orb or two to the amount that I already have to compensate you 😂😂)

Thanks guys, I'll do the overall update at the end of the month

I'm sensing your jinx has affected my 100-drops too, feeling like in a desert now... I might just have to add a bit more orbs, on the safe side 🙄😂😂

Keep on roling! 👍

 

[Antimon]

I got a terrific streak with fights in the past 17 days (13 orbs in 753 fights, 1,7%, and I got the 12th orb at the 588th fight, that was 2,04%), compensated by a terrible one with missions (7 orbs in 51 missions, 13,7%, @Karyia, should I count this as a counterjinx? 😂)

With these absurd results, I'm now at:
- 49 epic pachinko orbs in 4348 troll fights (~1,13%)
- 49 epic pachinko orbs from missions in 78 days (0/3 in 38 days, 1/3 in 31 days, 2/3 in 9 days 3/3 in 0 days, ~20,94%)

And now, the overall update

- With a pool of 32399 total fights, the orbs drop chance is pretty stable, and the only noticeable change we got (mine, a +0,13%) corresponds to a way smaller variation in the overall data. The overall drop chance from troll fights is ~1,04% (it was ~1,02%), that means 1 orb every ~96 fights.

- Karyia's godly orbs from epic mission rate is sadly reducing, while Тёмный Властелин and DvDivXXX's are slowly rising. The overall chance of an epic pachinko orb from missions is now ~20,59% (it was ~21,17%), which means 1 orb in ~4,9 epic missions

The "~8 orbs in 7 days on average" guess I made last time still stands (4,32 orbs/week from mission + 3,64 orbs/week from free fights* =  7,96 orbs/week)

 

* : I considered 350 free fights in a week, 50 in a day (48 + at least 1 from daily contest + 1 from partitioning the 3CP arena rewards). I didn't take in account leagues CP rewards, so this should be the very minimum for an active player

Edited April 30, 2020 by Antimon

[Karyia]

3 hours ago, Antimon said:

@Karyia, should I count this as a counterjinx? 😂

Oh, noooooooooooo!!! 😱😱😱

How am I still leading that with such atrocious results? 😅😝

I hope it definitely works because if it goes the other way, I should be getting orbless 😂😂

But I'll be tracking the results!!! 😤

[Sev]

ORBS update:

100 orbs in 9665 fights (1.035%)

// My orb #100 dropped just seconds ago! 😀

[DvDivXXX]

1 hour ago, Sev said:

ORBS update:

100 orbs in 9665 fights (1.035%)

// My orb #100 dropped just seconds ago! 😀

Congrats. Did you do like 5k fights since the last summary? Or were some of these on the test servers and/or (an)other account(s)?

[Sev]

23 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

Congrats. Did you do like 5k fights since the last summary? Or were some of these on the test servers and/or (an)other account(s)?

These are all from live server accounts -- five in total, including my main. I use the other four primarily just for tasks similar to this one here: to collect more data faster 😀 I almost fanatically gather all the data, so it's only natural that the orb drop rates interest me too 😀

[Antimon]

19 days have passed and here I am with the update! In this time frame, I collected 18 orbs (a little less than the 8 orbs/week average), 9 from 973 troll fights (~0,92%) and 9 from 57 epic missions (~15,78%), so I got in total:
- 58 epic pachinko orbs in 5321 troll fights (~1,09%)
- 58 epic pachinko orbs from missions in 97 days (0/3 in 49 days, 1/3 in 38 days, 2/3 in 10 days 3/3 in 0 days, ~19,93%)

the overall results are the following:

- With a pool of 42652 total fights (thanks Sev for the massive update) and 445 orbs, the overall orbs drop chance from troll fights reconfirms itself at ~1,04%, that means 1 orb every ~96 fights.

- With a pool of 1557 epic missions and 319 orbs, the overall chance of an epic pachinko orb from missions is now ~20,49% (it dropped a bit, was ~20,59%), which means 1 orb in ~4,9 epic missions

We had very little to none variations to the % (at least, it is so rounding at the second decimal place), and we have the same "weekly estimations" (I can't come out with a more fitting name for this, sorry) of last week: 4,32 orbs/week from mission + 3,64 orbs/week from free fights* =  7,96 orbs/week = ~8 orbs in 7 days on average

Thanks to all of you, we'll see with the next update... I guess the last day of May is ok.

* : I considered 350 free fights in a week, 50 in a day (48 + at least 1 from daily contest + 1 from partitioning the 3CP arena rewards). I didn't take in account leagues CP rewards, so this should be the very minimum for an active player

Edited May 19, 2020 by Antimon

[jelom]

Time to update orbs obtained from fights:

66 orbs from 7197 battles (0.92%, I am slowly recovering, but my horrible start means I will never reach 1%)

[DvDivXXX]

2 hours ago, Antimon said:

Thanks to all of you, we'll see with the next update... I guess the last day of May is ok.

Sounds great. Thanks again to you for your hard work on compiling our stats. Much appreciated, as usual.

2 hours ago, jelom said:

I am slowly recovering, but my horrible start means I will never reach 1%

I'm pretty confident that you will, over time. I have a slightly bigger sample size than you do, and as I mentioned in a few updates of my previous post, I've had quite a big variance. Not long ago, I was actually well below 1% (that was in between the previous summary and the one from today), with hundreds of fights without a single orb dropping, and then every now and then it comes in short bursts.

Just compare my results from yesterday (which feature in Antimon's latest table) to where I'm at as of this writing:

86 orbs in 8,485 battles
53 orbs in 288 missions

[Sev]

ORBS update:

113 orbs in 11077 fights (1.02%)

[Karyia]

Since we're near the end of the month, I'll post/add my own then 👍

[Karyia]

My data from the last 38 days (33 total orbs):

- 12 days with 0 orbs;

- 20 days with 1 orb;

- 5 days with 2 orbs;

- 1 day with 3 orbs.

[Antimon]

Time for a new update! These 12 days (13 days of missions, thanks to the time change) have been good for me. Yesterday I even had my first day with 3 pachinko orbs/3 epic missions, that made my % of orbs from missions go up from 19,57% to 20,30%. That was nice.

- 75 epic pachinko orbs in 6809 troll fights (~1,10%, +17 orbs in 1488 fights)
- 67 epic pachinko orbs from missions in 110 days (0/3 in 55 days, 1/3 in 44 days, 2/3 in 10 days 3/3 in 1 days, ~20,30%, +9 orbs in 13 days)

- With a pool of 48048 total fights and 502 orbs, the overall orbs drop chance from troll fights reconfirms itself for the third week in a row at ~1,04%, that means 1 orb every ~96,15 fights.

- With a pool of 1791 epic missions and 378 orbs, the overall chance of an epic pachinko orb from missions is now ~21,11% (it grew, was ~20,59%), which means 1 orb in ~4,74 epic missions. It was nice to see an improvement in the % of all the players that gave update on their data, for once. By the end of June we should be able to reach and surpass the 2000 missions pool milestone, and that's a pretty great achievement. 

The "weekly estimations" improved a bit (4,43 orbs/week from mission + 3,64 orbs/week from free fights* =  8,07 orbs/week). With the number of data we have I think they are very unlikely to deviate considerably from the ~8 orbs in 7 days average.

Again, thanks to all of you. Next update will probably be on June 20, before the epic days start.

* : I considered 350 free fights in a week, 50 in a day (48 + at least 1 from daily contest + 1 from partitioning the 3CP arena rewards). I didn't take in account leagues CP rewards, so this should be the very minimum for an active player

 

Edited June 1, 2020 by Antimon

[jelom]

On 5/19/2020 at 5:25 PM, jelom said:

66 orbs from 7197 battles (0.92%, I am slowly recovering, but my horrible start means I will never reach 1%)

I have to say that I was wrong in being so pessimistic, and during these days RNG has been quite good, allowing me to reach this last data: 82 orbs in 8404 battles (0,98%)

[Karyia]

5 hours ago, Antimon said:

 

 

 

I would just like to take a moment to celebrate a situation where I actually was up on jelom on something  😂

There should be a reward for such an achievement❗🤣 Redeem code, anyone? j/k 

Good luck with those orbs! 👌

[jelom]

And I did it! My orb rate continued the improvement path and I broke the 1% mark. I am now at 90 orbs in 8929 battles (1,01%)

I am very happy  that I were wrong when I predicted I wouldn't reach 1%. This is a feat considering I was at 0,76% in april 20th.

[Sev]

ORBS UPDATE:

It's already two drop-based events after my last update:

• (1) Legendary Days: +23 orbs on 2607 battles (0.882%)
• (2) Corrupted Girls: +34 orbs in 3030 tries (1.122%)

So OVERALL that's 

• 170 orbs in 16,714 fights (1.017%)

 

EARLY CONCLUSIONS?

It's time for some final statements on our total orbs drop-rate estimations, isn't it? 😀 If so, then I can't miss the opportunity to start! 😎 The numbers now look more than good enough to acknowledge that the real drop rate is somewhere really close to 1% chance (or 1 orb in 100 tries). Actually, we might never be more sure than we're now -- since 1% could be considered as rather quite rare event, it may be really hard now to make further statistically relevant improvement.

I'm not complaining here, of course! That 1% is actually a very decent number! 😀 One orb in 100 battles on average -- it's a fine promise! 😀

 

Now, one thing here is still unresolved: how to explain my results obtained from test server? That was 206 orbs in 16,277 battles, yielding a lot better rate of 1.266%, or 1 orb in 80 tries (give or take), and thats a whole one refill faster on average 😀 Any ideas? Maybe someone would volunteer to make his own test run? I'm also tempted to do one or two more runs! 😀

[jelom]

3 hours ago, Sev said:

Now, one thing here is still unresolved: how to explain my results obtained from test server? That was 206 orbs in 16,277 battles, yielding a lot better rate of 1.266%, or 1 orb in 80 tries (give or take), and thats a whole one refill faster on average 😀 Any ideas? Maybe someone would volunteer to make his own test run? I'm also tempted to do one or two more runs! 😀

That seems similar as when I was at 0,76%, just in the limit of what it is statistically compatible with a 1% drop rate. I am sure that if you repeat it in the test server you would obtain a different result.

[Sev]

45 minutes ago, jelom said:

That seems similar as when I was at 0,76%, just in the limit of what it is statistically compatible with a 1% drop rate. I am sure that if you repeat it in the test server you would obtain a different result.

Sure, that's one possible explanation. But... if the two cases are indeed so similar in their essence, then why your results are only called bad luck and still included in our cumulative rates, but mine... silently considered as biased and instantly sent to nothingness? 😂

[DvDivXXX]

16 minutes ago, Sev said:

Sure, that's one possible explanation. But... if the two cases are indeed so similar in their essence, then why your results are only called bad luck and still included in our cumulative rates, but mine... silently considered as biased and instantly sent to nothingness? 😂

Because the bulk of your results were on the test server. While a useful indicator and tool in general, what can be established on the test server is usually nowhere near as reliable as data for our long-term evaluation as what can be established on the main/live server.

[Sev]

17 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

Because the bulk of your results were on the test server. While a useful indicator and tool in general, what can be established on the test server is usually nowhere near as reliable as data for our long-term evaluation as what can be established on the main/live server.

Yeah, I agree that test server results should never be taken 100% seriously. Though all the other drop-based mechanics always matched those on live...

Anyway, I was only laughing, that wasn't asked seriously 😋 As long as there's this uncertainty in these test results, let them stay alone.