Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 29, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 29, 2020 Awesome work, thanks @Antimon I'd be a little more conservative than you in my expectations and guess 1% for troll fights. It's not conclusive yet, but out of us five, the two with the highest battle counts also have the lowest drop rates by far, both below 1%, while the other three have significantly lower battle counts and much higher drop rates, all above 1.25%. It seems safe enough to estimate that the fixed drop rate must be somewhere in that ballpark, and I also expect it to be a "round-ish" number (eg not a "strange" number like 1.19 or 1.0666 ^^), so it's probably either 1% or 1.25%, but the former seems more likely to me. For missions, it seems to be trending somewhere in the ballpark of 20% to 25%, and my conservative guess would be 20%, but I think we'll need more data over a longer period of time to make a reliable enough estimation. In any case, we at least have a decent idea for now, which is more than I would have expected from this thread so far, given the fairly low participation. Thanks to all of you for that! 🏅 I'll keep counting and updating my own drop rates here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted March 2, 2020 Share Posted March 2, 2020 Just edited my posted with today's info Thanks for the data, @Antimon! 👌 It's good to see some results from the info we've been collecting 👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 (edited) 03.03.2020 screen: 04.03.2020 screen: 05.03.2020 screen: Edited March 5, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин 05.03.2020 screen added 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) Keeping the posts on-page 😅 04/03/20 screen 05/03/20 screen 06/03/20 screen 07/03/20 screen 08/03/20 screen 09/03/20 screen 10/03/20 screen 11/03/20 screen 12/03/20 screen Edited March 13, 2020 by Karyia 12/03/20 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 Update Total orbs from villains: 15 orbs from 1659 battles. (0,90% orb drop rate). Total orbs from daily missions: 14 orbs since patch went live on 12/02/2020 (21 days, 63 missions). 22,2% 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted March 4, 2020 Moderator Share Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) Thanks, guys. I'll do the same because searching for my old post on page 2 to update it isn't practical. 25 orbs in 2,220 battles 12 orbs in 87 missions (My mission total is lower than Jelom's and a few others' by 3 missions, because on Day One, I had already generated my missions before the patch, so they were unaffected.) Edited March 13, 2020 by DvDivXXX updated 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 (edited) @Antimon, @Karyia, thanks, guys, you're awesome. We've reached 147 entries. The results are almost the same as in 84, a bit less of orbs, a bit more of tickets (items are the same). Solid 90% + result. I think that we should stop with the screenshots - 384 entries for 95% is too far away. I'm totally satisfied. As for your research, @Antimon, please, specify the final goal. How much entries do you want to reach? It's good to have a motivation to reach some point. It's hard to collect data without a goal, "as long as you can/want". Anyway, I'll continue to post results daily in the table to not pollute the thread. You can take them from there. Edited March 5, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted March 6, 2020 Author Share Posted March 6, 2020 8 ore fa, Тёмный Властелин ha scritto: As for your research, @Antimon, please, specify the final goal. How much entries do you want to reach? It's good to have a motivation to reach some point. It's hard to collect data without a goal, "as long as you can/want". Anyway, I'll continue to post results daily in the table to not pollute the thread. You can take them from there. Since I'm collecting informations from DvDivXXX and jelom, too, 384 entries are actually way nearer than you think (only for orbs/not orbs, though) I really don't have a final goal, and I was in fact aiming at the "as long as I can/want". I guess it would be nice to reach 1000 entries, but that's a pretty far goal, and I have no intentions to ask you to stick around until we get there. If we all endure until the end of march we'll reach ~700 total entries, and that would be more than great. But again, since I don't have a precise final goal set in mind, feel free to choose your "endgame": be it right now, at the end of this event or that of the following one, at the end of march or even a little bit after that, I'll appreciate it anyway 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) My first post in this thread -- am I doing it right? 😛 March 7 -- Main account: Test account #1: Test account #2: Test account #3: Test account #4: TOTAL: Item 6 Ticket 6 Orb 3 EDIT: 7 March cont. -- added four more screenshots... Edited March 7, 2020 by Sev 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sev said: My first post in this thread -- am I doing it right? 😛 March 7: Yep And welcome! 👍 If you want to, when you update/edit your post with more "data", you can also hide the screenshots everyday, that'll save room and make the posts more easily read Edited March 7, 2020 by Karyia phrasing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 49 minutes ago, Karyia said: If you want to, when you update/edit your post with more "data", you can also hide the screenshots everyday, that'll save room and make the posts more easily read I'd really love to, just didn't yet figured out how to make that happen 😛 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Sev said: I'd really love to, just didn't yet figured out how to make that happen 😛 No worries Just try using "spoiler]" (without the " and add [ before spoiler) and then "[/spoiler]" and add the pic between those. Edited March 7, 2020 by Karyia 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) - Edited March 8, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 Guys, I just edited my original post and added four more (hidden) screenshots of todays epic missions taken on my test accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) - Edited March 8, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 (edited) Overall data: Date Item Ticket Orb Total ----------------------------------------------- 07 Mar 6 6 3 15 08 Mar 4 9 2 15 09 Mar 7 5 3 15 10 Mar 7 3 5 15 11 Mar 5 6 4 15 12 Mar 8 6 1 15 13 Mar 7 5 3 15 14 Mar 6 3 6 15 15 Mar 5 7 3 15 16 Mar 3 8 4 15 ----------------------------------------------- Total: 58 58 34 150 Fraction: .387 .387 .227 March 16 details: Account Item Ticket Orb ------------------------------------- Main 0 2 1 Test #1 1 0 2 Test #2 1 2 0 Test #3 0 2 1 Test #3 1 2 0 ------------------------------------- Total: 3 8 4 Bonus: Orb drop rate (Grunt & Donatien, ongoing Event, all accounts except main): got 6 orbs out of 598 fights => so far it's c.a. 1/100 for me. Edited March 16, 2020 by Sev March 16 update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted March 12, 2020 Author Share Posted March 12, 2020 - 22 epic pachinko orbs in 1622 battles (~1,36%) - 17 epic pachinko orbs from missions in 29 days (0/3 in 15 days; 1/3 in 11 day; 2/3 in 3 days; 3/3 in 0 days) Thank you @Sev for joining us ☺️ And now the overall report During these 12 past days, things have changed a bit. I think now it's pretty obvious that last time I was a little bit too optimistic (I really liked the 1,25% - 25% guess, though, what a pity). The overall orbs drop rate through troll fights is now 1,12% (was 1,19%). I got a serious fall in my rate (was 1.60%, now 1.36) and of course, with time, it will decrease even more, but I hope jelom's will start to rise up soon, too. If I have to give a prediction now, I'd say 1,10%: 1,20 is for sure overly optimistic, but on the other end 1,00%, as things are now, seems to me overly pessimistic. We'll see. About the mission drop rate, I think that the guess @DvDivXXX made two weeks ago (20% for orbs as epic mission rewards) seems very plausible, now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 @Antimon, the probability of dropping orb has to be much lower than your former expectations. You were indeed too optimistic a little bit, I'll give you that 😀 The reason why the drop rate can't be too high is actually simple: making orbs through troll fights can't be more profitable than the ordinary 1x epic pachinko spin... So the drop rate is for sure less than 2%, or 1 orb in 50 fights on average, because it would otherwise be more profitable in the long run to use your kobans on troll refills (540 kobans equals exactly 2.5 refills = 50 fights). I'd say it's reasonable to assume the real drop rate is at most half of that upper bound, so maybe around 1%... It feels something like that could be possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted March 12, 2020 Author Share Posted March 12, 2020 40 minuti fa, Sev ha scritto: @Antimon, the probability of dropping orb has to be much lower than your former expectations. You were indeed too optimistic a little bit, I'll give you that 😀 The reason why the drop rate can't be too high is actually simple: making orbs through troll fights can't be more profitable than the ordinary 1x epic pachinko spin... So the drop rate is for sure less than 2%, or 1 orb in 50 fights on average, because it would otherwise be more profitable in the long run to use your kobans on troll refills (540 kobans equals exactly 2.5 refills = 50 fights). I'd say it's reasonable to assume the real drop rate is at most half of that upper bound, so maybe around 1%... It feels something like that could be possible... my former guess was a 1,25% of drops from troll fights (1 in 80 fights, and 25% for orbs as mission rewards). For sure I wasn't expecting more than 1 orbs in less than 50 fights XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 @Antimon I don't know why I blindly assumed it was you saying something like that earlier, I'm sorry... Anyway, your guess of 1.25% doesn't look like a bad bet at the moment. However, I believe in round numbers so my guess would be just 1% 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sev said: @Antimon I don't know why I blindly assumed it was you saying something like that earlier, I'm sorry... Anyway, your guess of 1.25% doesn't look like a bad bet at the moment. However, I believe in round numbers so my guess would be just 1% 😁 Kinkoid doesn't believe in round numbers It's usually something very ugly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaybee Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Nobody has noticed any change from March? I have not kept exact data but orbs from troll fights dropped pretty regularly and with more than 1% in February but in March (since the beginning of the Pokemon event) the orb drop rate has been around 0.3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted March 13, 2020 Moderator Share Posted March 13, 2020 6 hours ago, jaybee said: Nobody has noticed any change from March? I have not kept exact data but orbs from troll fights dropped pretty regularly and with more than 1% in February but in March (since the beginning of the Pokemon event) the orb drop rate has been around 0.3%. It's been the opposite trend for me. And I've been keeping exact data. ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, jaybee said: Nobody has noticed any change from March? I have not kept exact data but orbs from troll fights dropped pretty regularly and with more than 1% in February but in March (since the beginning of the Pokemon event) the orb drop rate has been around 0.3%. Highs and lows, like the drop rates. Have had "hotter" stretches and "colder" stretches. Screen 13/03/20 Edited March 13, 2020 by Karyia 13/03/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Update after the event: Total orbs from villains: 21 orbs from 2229 battles. (0,94% orb drop rate). Total orbs from daily missions: 19 orbs since patch went live on 12/02/2020 (30 days, 90 missions). 21,1% 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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