Тёмный Властелин Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 (edited) I've added Overall results to the table. 19.02.2020 screen: Edited February 19, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 4 hours ago, Тёмный Властелин said: @Karyia, thanks for the screen. I've added you to the table. Can you, please, specify, what date does it refer to? Sure. That's today's screen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 20.02.2020 screen: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 20/02/20 screen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 (edited) Il 19/2/2020 in 12:19 , Antimon ha scritto: Wednesday 19th/february (Epic days) - Karole, 33 battles + Jackson's crew, 52 battles (59 - 7 default adventure item), 0 orbs ; 1 orbs from epic missions, so: - 7 epic pachinko orbs in 374 battles (~1,87%) - 6 epic pachinko orb from missions in 7 days (0/3 in 2 days; 1/3 in 4 day; 2/3 in 1 days; 3/3 in 0 days) Thursday 20th/february (Epic days) - Jackson's crew, 125 battles, 2 orbs (will update this evening) ; 0 orbs from epic missions, so: - 9 epic pachinko orbs in 499 battles (~1,80%) - 6 epic pachinko orb from missions in 8 days (0/3 in 3 days; 1/3 in 4 day; 2/3 in 1 days; 3/3 in 0 days) Edited February 21, 2020 by Antimon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 20, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 20, 2020 @Antimon Are you still interested in raw stats shared by someone not willing to jump through hoops for the spreadsheet and screenshot plan? If so, update from me (battle stats from yesterday and today, missions from when it began for me, last Thursday): 8 orbs in 664 battles (mostly vs Dona and Roko, FYI) 4 orbs in 21 missions If not, well let me know, I'll leave this thread alone. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 11 minuti fa, DvDivXXX ha scritto: @Antimon Are you still interested in raw stats shared by someone not willing to jump through hoops for the spreadsheet and screenshot plan? If so, update from me (battle stats from yesterday and today, missions from when it began for me, last Thursday): 8 orbs in 664 battles (mostly vs Dona and Roko, FYI) 4 orbs in 21 missions If not, well let me know, I'll leave this thread alone. Cheers. For sure I'm interested, but for what I'm seeing, other players are sharing their informations regarding orbs in the shards topic (at least the troll fights related ones). So now I'm asking myself if it wouldn't be better to have them all in the same place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 21, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 21, 2020 3 hours ago, Antimon said: So now I'm asking myself if it wouldn't be better to have them all in the same place. I don't know, I've checked that shard drop thread a few times, and it's just walls of raw stats in a very specific format, and they seem to have pretty strict rules on what to post, when and how as well. From a quick glance at the last couple pages, it appears that a few players have started to include some orb-related info in their posts, but only for troll fights, and they also mix it up with spin results from these orbs, which I don't like one bit either. What would be great is if we could have all relevant info for orb drops in one place, and that place could draw a little more attention and participation. Right now, there's 3 people compiling their respective small sample sizes in the tiresome format Тёмный Властелин managed to impose, and one guy (myself) sharing just the important info from his own small sample size (which doesn't even get compiled with the other 3 small samples)... That's so far from statistically relevant, we'd need a miracle (or, say, Shal) to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 21.02.2020 screen: [/spoiler] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 21/02/20 screen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 7 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: I don't know, I've checked that shard drop thread a few times, and it's just walls of raw stats in a very specific format, and they seem to have pretty strict rules on what to post, when and how as well. From a quick glance at the last couple pages, it appears that a few players have started to include some orb-related info in their posts, but only for troll fights, and they also mix it up with spin results from these orbs, which I don't like one bit either. What would be great is if we could have all relevant info for orb drops in one place, and that place could draw a little more attention and participation. Right now, there's 3 people compiling their respective small sample sizes in the tiresome format Тёмный Властелин managed to impose, and one guy (myself) sharing just the important info from his own small sample size (which doesn't even get compiled with the other 3 small samples)... That's so far from statistically relevant, we'd need a miracle (or, say, Shal) to get there. Might as well create a topic for orbs? Sort of the one you post for Mythic Pachinko? Of course, if there's enough interest for people to get that sort of info. But can't hurt to try? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) 11 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: I don't know, I've checked that shard drop thread a few times, and it's just walls of raw stats in a very specific format, and they seem to have pretty strict rules on what to post, when and how as well. From a quick glance at the last couple pages, it appears that a few players have started to include some orb-related info in their posts, but only for troll fights, and they also mix it up with spin results from these orbs, which I don't like one bit either. The only rule in the shard drop thread is entering data from shards drop in the format every player prefers (with a small comment if you wish) and not using it for discussion, as there are a lot of other places to do it. I didn't put my orb drop data here just because there were most posts discussing about format but without relevant data. And now entering the discussion here, I think it is best that a player take note of the orbs in missions or drops from villains in his own file and update the info here only every week or so in order not to clutter the thread with so many posts. Statistically the number of epic missions daily is small but the appearing rate of orbs is high (most probably a 25-35% , my guess is devs could have decided 1/3 so you have one daily in average), and with orbs drops from villains fights is the reverse, a lot of fights daily but a small drop rate (almost sure between 0.5-1.5 %, again my guess is devs have going for a round number 1%, so you have one every two days in average). That two situations made neccesary having a lot of samples for getting accurate estimations (especially difficult in the case of daily missions), but having a rough range of estimation is easy with just some days samples. Edit: after reading other players orb appearance in daily missions, it seems i have been lucky these days and that made me optimistic, so perhaps the probability range is lower than what I said before, something between 15-30% Edited February 21, 2020 by jelom 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, jelom said: The only rule in the shard drop thread is entering data from shards drop in the format every player prefers (with a small comment if you wish) and not using it for discussion, as there are a lot of other places to do it. I didn't put my orb drop data here just because there were most posts discussing about format but without relevant data. And now entering the discussion here, I think it is best that a player take note of the orbs in missions or drops from villains in his own file and update the info here only every week or so in order not to clutter the thread with so many posts. Statistically the number of epic missions daily is small but the appearing rate of orbs is high (most probably a 25-35%, my guess is devs could have decided 1/3 so you have one daily in average), and with orbs drops from villains fights is the reverse, a lot of fights daily but a small drop rate (almost sure between 0.5-1.5 %, again my guess is devs have going for a round number 1%, so you have one every two days in average). That two situations made neccesary having a lot of samples for getting accurate estimations (especially difficult in the case of daily missions), but having a rough range of estimation is easy with just some days samples. I think you will find that it is significantly less than 1/3 for missions. But okay, that is what collecting data is for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 21, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Karyia said: Might as well create a topic for orbs? Sort of the one you post for Mythic Pachinko? Well, yeah, but I thought this here thread was going to be the one. ^^ The more similar threads there are, and the most complications and format-related discussion each has, the less visible and useful the process will be. 10 minutes ago, Chthugha said: I think you will find that it is significantly less than 1/3 for missions. But okay, that is what collecting data is for. I'm with you on that. I remember reading Jelom had like 9 orbs from missions so far, which sounds like a really lucky streak to me. I'm still at 4 over 24 missions now, which is half of the frequency Jelom expects. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 (edited) Il 21/2/2020 in 01:17 , DvDivXXX ha scritto: and one guy (myself) sharing just the important info from his own small sample size (which doesn't even get compiled with the other 3 small samples)... That's so far from statistically relevant, we'd need a miracle (or, say, Shal) to get there. The fact that Тёмный Властелин isn't taking in consideration your data for his personal table doesn't mean I (and/or someone else) am not considering them as well, it simply felt to me too early to proceed in making comparisons that could make actual sense, since my values (and jelom's, apparently) give out a chance for orbs as mission rewards that is almost twice that of yours, Karyia's and Тёмный's (I'm at 8/27, which is 29.62%; you are at 4/24, the other two 2/12, all corresponding to 16,67%). We got three epic mission a day, reaching a significative sample will be a pain, and again, if adhering to Тёмный Властелин's 10 days project makes him willing to share his mission rewards related informations too, well, I'm in. Il 21/2/2020 in 09:12 , jelom ha scritto: I think it is best that a player take note of the orbs in missions or drops from villains in his own file and update the info here only every week or so in order not to clutter the thread with so many posts. Statistically the number of epic missions daily is small but the appearing rate of orbs is high (most probably a 25-35%, my guess is devs could have decided 1/3 so you have one daily in average), and with orbs drops from villains fights is the reverse, a lot of fights daily but a small drop rate (almost sure between 0.5-1.5 %, again my guess is devs have going for a round number 1%, so you have one every two days in average). That two situations made neccesary having a lot of samples for getting accurate estimations (especially difficult in the case of daily missions), but having a rough range of estimation is easy with just some days samples. OK, since we were at the beginning with very small samples (the mission rewards one in particular) I thought that a daily update would have been a better idea, but if this is somehow detrimental to the topic participation (alongside the futile discussions we had at the very beginning), I take note and I'll wait some days before giving a new post with an update. In this regard Il 21/2/2020 in 05:58 , Тёмный Властелин ha scritto: 21.02.2020 screen: Rivela contenuti nascosti [/spoiler] This will be my last new post with updates for a while. In the sake of your project, though, I'll continue adding daily mission rewards screenshots between the spoiler tags at the end of this post, so go look there everyday. I invite you and @Karyia to do the same thing with your next posts from tomorrow onward ( @DvDivXXX, since you're not in this screenshots thing, if you take your counts and share them with us time to time is more than ok). And now, finally, the update: Il 20/2/2020 in 14:12 , Antimon ha scritto: Thursday 20th/february (Epic days) - Jackson's crew, 125 battles, 2 orbs (will update this evening) ; 0 orbs from epic missions, so: - 9 epic pachinko orbs in 499 battles (~1,80%) - 6 epic pachinko orb from missions in 8 days (0/3 in 3 days; 1/3 in 4 day; 2/3 in 1 days; 3/3 in 0 days) - 17 epic pachinko orbs in 1044 battles (~1,56%) - 11 epic pachinko orbs from missions in 15 days (0/3 in 6 days; 1/3 in 7 day; 2/3 in 2 days; 3/3 in 0 days) 21/02 22/02 23/02 24/02 25/02 26/02 27/02 Edited February 28, 2020 by Antimon 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Very strange argumentation for not posting into a topic - not to clutter the thread. As if we have limited space in it. On the contrary, I find it better to update info on the daily basis (so you are aware that the data was collected and posted precisely by all the participants) and don't like to watch walls of text posts, like in the shards thread. But yeah, everyone has his own point of view. Also, I don't understand, why do you, guys, always say that it will take a lot of time to achieve significant results. Let's try to define, how much entries do we need to acquire them. Let's go to the Tower of Glory => Leaderboard => last page in global weekly competition. We will see the amount of users, which took part in the competitions this week - 68008 for now. 2 weeks ago it was 55k; 1 week ago - 62,4k. Ok, let it be 70k active users a day. 1 player can have 3 epic missions a day, so we multiply 70k by 3 = 210k. It's the number of daily epic missions, distributed among all the players of the game. I went for 10 days "research" so we multiply 210k by 10 = 2,1 million epic daily missions are distributed among the players in 10 days. Let's look into the table. As we can see, for 1kk to 10kk base the numbers are almost the same - to get 90% (+-10%) accuracy you need 68 (!) entries. To get 95% - 384 entries; 1318-1320 entries for 97%. I am, actually, ok with 90%. Of cource, 95% would have been better but we have only 3 participants for 10 days. I wonder, what numbers are you aming for? 97%? 99%? P.S. I will, probably, continue gathering info after the 10 days expiration to reach, well, let's say, 150 entries (to have more numbers from 1 person). That is gonna be my final goal. If I will do it alone, it will take me 20 more days, but I am ok with it. If you would be so kind to continue contributing into this after the first 10 days expiration to reach 150 entries (7 more days), I would appreciate. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 (edited) I can understand @jelom's argument pretty well, seems efficient to me (less posts, more info less spread, less scrolling and so on). His/the other post has/is quite a long "database" 😎 Regardless, since this is a shorter "project", it's all the same. As long as I'm able to get it, it's pretty much the same to post it everyday or save it and post severan in x days If at the end, anyone wishes to export the data/info to the other topic in any form, like @Antimon as suggested, we can pick up from there too. As long as it's useful, that's what matters. In the meantime, it would be quicker to get some/more info if we were more So, @DvDivXXX, come on man, you can do it 😂 (just messing with ya!) 22/02/20 screen Edited February 22, 2020 by Karyia wrong date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 (edited) I'm fine to do it in 1 post. I'll update this one and the table, of course. P.S. added visual overall diagram. 22.02.2020 screen: 23.02.2020 screen: 24.02.2020 screen: 25.02.2020 screen: 26.02.2020 screen: 27.02.2020 screen: Edited February 27, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин 27.02.2020 screen added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 22, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 22, 2020 (edited) Sure. I'll edit this here post once a day, then. No spoiler tag, because no screenshots. 15 orbs in 1,575 battles 11 orbs in 57 missions 2 mission orbs on the same day for the first time on Day 15! ^^ Edited March 3, 2020 by DvDivXXX updated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 (edited) 23/02/20 screen 24/02/20 screen 25/02/20 screen 26/02/20 screen 27/02/20 screen Edited February 27, 2020 by Karyia 27/02/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 I have posted this info in the shards thread too, but I am sure you will prefer having it here: The total orbs from villains has gone to 12 orbs from 1353 battles. (0,89% orb drop rate) I have also received 13 orbs from daily missions since patch went live on 12/02/2020 (15 days, 45 missions). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 (edited) @Antimon, @Karyia, We have reached 84 entries - a bit more than 90% accuracy. I've expanded the table to reach 150 entries to be a bit more precise with the results. It requires 7 more days to contribute from 3 participants. It's gonna be my final goal. I think that it will be enough for a decent 91-92%. If you feel that you're done with it, thanks for participation. I appreciate your effort. For now the results are the following: orb - 21,43% (+- 2,14%); ticket - 40,48% (+- 4,05%); item - 38,10% (+- 3,81%). It seems like the orb rate might be the same as a girl from event pachinko - 22,75%. Tickets with items seem to have similar value - ~38%. 28.02.2020 screen: 29.02.2020 screen: 01.03.2020 screen: 02.03.2020 screen: Edited March 2, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин 02.03.2020 screen added 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 27, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Тёмный Властелин said: the same as a girl from event pachinko - 22,75% It's actually 22.5% for a girl in EvP (just in case you might want to know). Thanks for the efforts and the graph, in any case. It's still a very limited sample size and I'm not sure how much faith I have in your interpretation that this data is 90%-ish reliable. With only 3 participants, and considering that the variance is clearly very strong, I think we'll need a lot more to make a solid enough estimation. If you just add my results (extremely bad run with 8 orb missions out of 42) and/or Jelom's (very good run with 13 orb missions out of 45) to the mix, your 21-ish% would vary quite a bit over that same period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 (edited) Sure, if nothing fails, I should be able to provide that info 28/02/20 screen 29/02/20 screen 01/03/20 screen 02/03/20 screen 03/03/20 screen Edited March 3, 2020 by Karyia 03/03/20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted February 29, 2020 Author Share Posted February 29, 2020 (edited) - 17 epic pachinko orbs in 1065 battles (~1,60%) - 12 epic pachinko orbs from missions in 17 days (0/3 in 7 days; 1/3 in 8 day; 2/3 in 2 days; 3/3 in 0 days) and my overall report, too. Taking in account even DvDivXXX and jelom's mission related informations (and Karyia first day report, that has no screenshot) the overall orb in epic mission rate is slightly higher than the one you get considering only mine, karya's and Тёмный Властелин's (that, at least until now, had a pretty unlucky run). I wouldn't be that surprised if, with more entries, the mission rate would reach an average of ~25%, but maybe this is an overly optimistic view. About orbs drop rate through troll fights, I'm considering Zamio and Makinen's informations, too, which they posted in the shard drops thread. With currently available data, the overall drop rate is 1,19%, and I'm thinking that, with future entries, maybe we could reach ~1,25% drop rate, which is not a "strange" number (and I hope this definition makes sense not just for me 😅) and translates to a clean 1 orb in 80 fights, but this is just a guess (again, maybe overly optimistic). Тёмный Властелин, as usual, my screenshots in the spoiler tag. Probably I won't post them everyday anymore, but I'll try taking them everyday for as long as you need. Once you reach your final goal, I'd appreciate if you (and Karyia) will continue reporting your informations about orbs as epic missions rewards (with overall count or screenshots, as you prefer, I'm not particularly interested in tracking tickets and item rates) 28/02 29/02 01/03 02/03 03/03 04/03 05/03 Edited March 5, 2020 by Antimon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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