Antimon Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Hi there! It seemed appropriate to me to open a topic similar to the shards drop one in order to narrow down both the epic pachinko orbs drop rate from troll fights and their chance of appearance as epic missions' reward. I was thinking to something like this: - x epic pachinko orbs in y total battles - w epic pachinko orbs from missions in z days (0/3 in a days; 1/3 in b days; 2/3 in c days; 3/3 in d days) But if you have a better idea, or if you think there're some important value I didn't think of, please share it with me/us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I was going to make a table for mission rewards count and, actually, doing it right now, but I see that you're the first, so maybe I shouldn't do it 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dragon_king1@outlook.com Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 A question if I gather 10 orbs would give me the option of the pachinko of 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, dragon_king1@outlook.com said: A question if I gather 10 orbs would give me the option of the pachinko of 10? Like mentioned on the patch notes... nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 By the way, I don't like the mix of daily missions and troll fights. They are different stories with different rewards, and, possibly, different drop chances. In my opinion, there should be one table, concerning daily mission's rewards appearance probability and the other one, concerning troll battle's rewards appearance probability. But I am not very good at statistics, so I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 17, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Antimon said: I was thinking to something like this: - x epic pachinko orbs in y total battles - w epic pachinko orbs from missions in z days (0/3 in a days; 1/3 in b days; 2/3 in c days; 3/3 in d days) This seems perfectly fine to me. The simpler the format, the easier it'll be for more people to contribute (and stat wizards can always make tables from there). I can't start counting my orbs from villain fights today, but I'll do it starting tomorrow. I can start my count for daily missions, though, it's fairly simple, you'll see. ^^ - 1 epic pachinko orb from missions in 6 days (Day 1: 0/3; Day 2: 1/3; Days 3 to 6: 0/3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 (edited) It should be something like this. Some volunteers should post screenshots in the thread on the daily basis and one person should put it in the table. The event shouldn't be very long otherwise people would just stop participating. A sample size of 150 entries (5 volunteers over 10 days) should be good enough for the beginning. If people are willing to continue, this might be enlargened to 300 (5 people, 20 days) for better results. Seems a good strategy. Edited February 17, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин wrong link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 (edited) 2 ore fa, Тёмный Властелин ha scritto: By the way, I don't like the mix of daily missions and troll fights. They are different stories with different rewards, and, possibly, different drop chances. In my opinion, there should be one table, concerning daily mission's rewards appearance probability and the other one, concerning troll battle's rewards appearance probability. But I am not very good at statistics, so I may be wrong. Of course the ones from missions and the ones from troll fights are different stories, and that's why I suggested to report the orbs from fight and the orbs from missions separately and not cumulatively. I thought that, in this way, they could be both effectively and easily reported (and updated) without the need of opening two different topics, but if you all think that it would be better having two diferent topics, we can easily edit this topic and make it specifically for "mission orbs" reports and we can open a new one specifically for "fight orbs" reports. Also, statistic masters, if you believe that this 2 ore fa, Тёмный Властелин ha scritto: It should be something like this. Some volunteers should post screenshots in the thread on the daily basis and one person should put it in the table. The event shouldn't be very long otherwise people would just stop participating. A sample size of 150 entries (5 volunteers over 10 days) should be good enough for the beginning. If people are willing to continue, this might be enlargened to 300 (5 people, 20 days) for better results. Seems a good strategy. could be a better strategy, again, let us know. 2 ore fa, DvDivXXX ha scritto: - 1 epic pachinko orb from missions in 6 days (Day 1: 0/3; Day 2: 1/3; Days 3 to 6: 0/3) About this, I actually wasn't thinking of reporting the "day by day" details, but a more "summary" thing. For example, in your case I imagined something like - 1 epic pachinko orb from missions in 6 days (0/3 in 5 days; 1/3 in 1 day; 2/3 in 0 days; 3/3 in 0 days) Another time, statistic masters please let us know what do you think about this. And now, my first report: - 5 epic pachinko orbs in 246 battles - 5 epic pachinko orb from missions in 5 days (0/3 in 1 days; 1/3 in 3 day; 2/3 in 1 days; 3/3 in 0 days) Edited February 18, 2020 by Antimon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 18, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 18, 2020 I think, for this topic to work, you need to have flexible enough criteria and required format that it won't be too much work for people who just want to contribute. If Тёмный Властелин or anyone else is motivated enough (and skilled enough in stats) to note down the results in a table like the one linked above, and keep that up to date, all the better. But if we don't get the ball rolling with simple, clear posts (while still being precise enough to be useful), I don't think we'll get enough data for it to matter. For missions, I'm not sure how useful the stats of how many times someone got 1, 2 or 3 orb missions on the same day is very relevant. We get the picture from just knowing how many you got in how many days. It's a bit like if you recorded the distance between each of your orb drops from villain fights, instead of simply the raw data we can extract an average from. You got an average of 1 orb a day from missions so far, for instance; whereas I got an average of "zero point something very low". I think that's the main info we really need to track. Also, was I wrong to count 6 days? I guess the missions were already set up on Wednesday before the patch hit, and it didn't change them, so I should have started to count from Thursday, as you did. So, I got 1 on the first day, and then zilch (average of 0.2/day so far, then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: For missions, I'm not sure how useful the stats of how many times someone got 1, 2 or 3 orb missions on the same day is very relevant. We get the picture from just knowing how many you got in how many days. For sure. But statistics like to work with precise numbers and facts and not just 3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: Also, was I wrong to count 6 days? I guess the missions were already set up on Wednesday before the patch hit You're not sure, you didn't keep track, you don't have the logs (screenshots). How can one rely on the numbers like this, for example 3 hours ago, Antimon said: - 5 epic pachinko orbs in 246 battles - 5 epic pachinko orb from missions in 5 days (0/3 in 1 days; 1/3 in 3 day; 2/3 in 1 days; 3/3 in 0 days) When did these battles occur (what dates)? What villains did he battle? Were they battles during some event or ordinary day's battles? Why is it only info about the orbs? How can we track the percentages if we don't know other numbers - tickets and items from contests; money, items, tickets and shards from villains? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 18, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Тёмный Властелин said: You're not sure, you didn't keep track, you don't have the logs (screenshots). How can one rely on the numbers like this, for example I did keep track of the one thing relevant to this topic: how many missions with an orb as the reward I've got since it's been introduced. I wasn't sure Wednesday counted, because the missions were generated before the patch, as I explained. I take screenshots and keep a precise log of things that are important to me for my personal stats (like how many refills I use every event, how many kobans I spend, stuff like that). I'm sure that's a lot more than most players do, and even for me, going that far instead of just memorizing the key number for something like the number of orb missions I get is too much work. Which was exactly my point in my previous post: by being waaaay too ambitious, you're going to gather so little data that it won't be relevant regardless of how many secondary details you take into account. 2 hours ago, Тёмный Властелин said: When did these battles occur (what dates)? What villains did he battle? Were they battles during some event or ordinary day's battles? Why is it only info about the orbs? How can we track the percentages if we don't know other numbers - tickets and items from contests; money, items, tickets and shards from villains? And what was he wearing at the time? Did he eat pasta on that day? How was the weather? Did he click with his right hand or left hand? ^^ Seriously, this isn't a scientific lab with professional researchers running rigorous tests to verify a scientific hypothesis. It's a forum thread for people to post how many orbs they get from missions and boss battles, so we can hopefully get a ballpark of what to expect on average over time. Speaking of which, an update from me (aka one of only 2 people who actually posted numbers on this thread yet): 2 epic pachinko orb from missions in 6 days (2/18 missions). I'll start counting for boss fights today. Cheers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Well, if it helps, I had one orb on my missions today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zamio Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 There are a few other posters, over in the shard drop rate thread, posting the orbs drop as well, from boss hits. But since we update our stats, once an event is over, it won't fit the daily reporting basis you are currently looking into. the reports are in this format however - x epic pachinko orbs in y total battles and can probably be added to the other reports you get here to increase the sample size. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: by being waaaay too ambitious, you're going to gather so little data that it won't be relevant regardless of how many secondary details you take into account. 12 hours ago, Тёмный Властелин said: It should be something like this. Some volunteers should post screenshots in the thread on the daily basis and one person should put it in the table. The event shouldn't be very long otherwise people would just stop participating. A sample size of 150 entries (5 volunteers over 10 days) should be good enough for the beginning. If people are willing to continue, this might be enlargened to 300 (5 people, 20 days) for better results. Seems a good strategy. Is it too ambitious? To post a screenshot with date in it and 3 epic missions on the screen for 10 days in a row? If it is than what are we even talking about? As regards the boss battles, it's a more complicated story. For me, at least. I don't like the proposed format - it tells literally nothing about percentages and has nothing to do with statistic probabilities. But sure, you can do watever you like. 3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: And what was he wearing at the time? Did he eat pasta on that day? How was the weather? Did he click with his right hand or left hand? ^^ Seriously, this isn't a scientific lab with professional researchers running rigorous tests to verify a scientific hypothesis. It's a forum thread for people to post how many orbs they get from missions and boss battles, so we can hopefully get a ballpark of what to expect on average over time. Chill, bro. If you don't like my approach, than just say it. There is no need to make fun of it. That's not the way discussion works. Edited February 18, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 (edited) 21 ore fa, DvDivXXX ha scritto: Also, was I wrong to count 6 days? I guess the missions were already set up on Wednesday before the patch hit, and it didn't change them, so I should have started to count from Thursday, as you did. So, I got 1 on the first day, and then zilch (average of 0.2/day so far, then). By the time the patch went live on wednesday I had already finished the three epic missions. I know for sure that arena final reward were still the champion tickets (I didn't used mythic orbs yet, and I have 5 of them stocked up, and will be 6 with the one I'll win today), I suppose that missions, too, weren't changed, but I'm not certain of it. 18 ore fa, Тёмный Властелин ha scritto: When did these battles occur (what dates)? What villains did he battle? Were they battles during some event or ordinary day's battles? Why is it only info about the orbs? How can we track the percentages if we don't know other numbers - tickets and items from contests; money, items, tickets and shards from villains? About all this, I can specify the dates and the troll I fought (and the event/ordinary day). I didn't take note of money/items, tickets and shards, because I didn't think that could be important, in the shards topic we report only the shard drops. - thursday 13th/february - Karole (ordinary day), 51 battles, 0 orbs - friday 14th/february - Edwarda (Valentine surpise), 49 battles, 1 orb - saturday 15th/february - Edwarda (Valentine surprise), 49 battles, 1 orb - sunday 16th/february - Edwarda (Valentine surprise), 33 battles, 2 orbs - Karole (Valentine surprise), 12 battles, 0 orbs - monday 17th/february - Karole (Valentine surprise, 52 battles, 1 orb Same thing with the mission approach. I personally didn't thought to be useful to report even the non-orbs epic mission rewards, but if you think otherwise and doing so makes you happier and willingly to participate in this thing with your datas, it won't be a problem for me to share the screenshots of my three epic mission rewards from tomorrow onwards. 22 ore fa, Antimon ha scritto: And now, my first report: - 5 epic pachinko orbs in 246 battles - 5 epic pachinko orb from missions in 5 days (0/3 in 1 days; 1/3 in 3 day; 2/3 in 1 days; 3/3 in 0 days) Back to the reports, today, tuesday 18th/february (Valentine surprise) I got 0 orbs from missions and 2 orbs from battling Karole 43 times, so: - 7 epic pachinko orbs in 289 battles - 5 epic pachinko orb from missions in 6 days (0/3 in 2 days; 1/3 in 3 day; 2/3 in 1 days; 3/3 in 0 days) Edited February 18, 2020 by Antimon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 (edited) @Antimon If you don't mind I'll stick to the daily epic mission's rewards (it's also interesting for me to know ticket probability). If you want to participate, post screenshots, I have added you to the table. As regards trolls, I am not sure how to do the proper table and what to count and it's also a substantial amount of work to do, which I, honestly don't want to 😉 Table for epic missions. I'll add the overall sums as soon as the pool of participants settles. Edited February 19, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин image went into spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 18, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 18, 2020 9 hours ago, Тёмный Властелин said: Chill, bro. If you don't like my approach, than just say it. There is no need to make fun of it. That's not the way discussion works. Dude, I was making my point in a humorous way, not making fun of you. I'm surprised by your defensive reaction, honestly. I have nothing against you, we've had pleasant exchanges so far. I just strongly disagree with your approach to Antimon's proposed group project, and I think by insisting on so much work and so specific criteria, you'll deter players from posting here to provide data for the thread, which is counterproductive imho. How a discussion works is defined by all parties involved, de facto. Knowing now that you seem to be touchy and react negatively to humor and/or constructive feedback, I'll probably limit my interactions with you to avoid unnecessary drama (that's absolutely not what I was looking for, trust me). But it's not going to be easy if you keep this approach and level of presence in this thread (which hasn't taken off at all, in case you didn't notice). I might just have to let it go and Antimon and yourself will end up gathering data from just the both of you, which will take years to be of any statistical significance for anyone. Your call, I guess. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: I just strongly disagree with your approach to Antimon's proposed group project Sure. 3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: I think by insisting on so much work and so specific criteria I don't think that it is that much work. And the criteria so specific. 1 screenshot a day for a number of days. If it is 1 person, than it is gonna be ~ 2 months, if it's 2 - ~1 month, if it's 3 - than 20 days maybe, maybe even less. That has to be determined, according to the number of participants. 3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: you'll deter players from posting here to provide data for the thread False. I do not deter anyone from doing anything here. It's not my thread, it's just a forum thread. Anyone can do anything here, post their data here, make their own tables, count their own %. I propose to put data in a table I've made, if you'll give me screenshots. If you don't want to, than you may do it your way. Or may not. You may use my data in your own table after all. I am interested in gathering info about % of orbs appearance and % of tickets appearance. Now I am, actually, in need of more tickets than orbs, so I am more interested in tickets, but I don't think it is right to gather specific info only about tickets or only about orbs. If you don't like it, than, sure, you may not give numbers for tickets and items and do it your own way. I just ask for a reliable data, not just random numbers. 3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: I might just have to let it go and Antimon and yourself will end up gathering data from just the both of you Sure. 3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: which will take years to be of any statistical significance for anyone That's not true. It wont take years. And you should not speak for all of people here, that's for sure. 3 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: Knowing now that you seem to be touchy and react negatively to humor and/or constructive feedback, I'll probably limit my interactions with you to avoid unnecessary drama (that's absolutely not what I was looking for, trust me). Oh, if you put it that way, please do. We will avoid unnecessary drama from my side and unnecessary "humor" from yours. Cheers. Edited February 18, 2020 by Тёмный Властелин Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 ore fa, DvDivXXX ha scritto: But it's not going to be easy if you keep this approach and level of presence in this thread (which hasn't taken off at all, in case you didn't notice). I might just have to let it go and Antimon and yourself will end up gathering data from just the both of you, which will take years to be of any statistical significance for anyone. Your call, I guess. Cheers. If sharing screenshot for few days will make another person share his mission information, well, I'll try to stick to my promise for this 10 days he asked. I honestly think that it is too much work for a too little sample (be it of 150 or 300 entries), but since missions come in such a small number per day (and it will need a lot of time with few people to reach a significative sample), I'll stick with his project for a bit. That doesn't mean I'll leave the summary format that I proposed at the start of the topic. And I truly hope that someone else will join this discussion sharing his datas, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 19, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Тёмный Властелин said: Oh, if you put it that way, please do. We will avoid unnecessary drama from my side and unnecessary "humor" from yours. Cheers. Rrright. You started off by stating yourself "I am not very good at statistics, so I may be wrong." and then you proceeded to hijack the thread and react to anything and everything in a super anal-retentive way, as if you were an expert on statistics... But I'm sure that's not the problem here, it's my failed attempts at making you realize how futile and overboard that was, with a tongue-in-cheek tone so as to not to vex you. Whatever, man. You do you. But I'm not getting trapped into that, sorry. Cheers 1 hour ago, Antimon said: I honestly think that it is too much work for a too little sample Yop. Anyways, I'll keep contributing, my way, if you're still interested. Update (the battle stats are only from today, I didn't count them before that; missions are since the patch affected them, on Thursday): 0 orbs in 78 battles 2 orbs in 18 missions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_shal_ Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 13 hours ago, Antimon said: By the time the patch went live on wednesday I had already finished the three epic missions. I know for sure that arena final reward were still the champion tickets (I didn't used mythic orbs yet, and I have 5 of them stocked up, and will be 6 with the one I'll win today), I suppose that missions, too, weren't changed, but I'm not certain of it. It depends on when people accessed the mission and arena screens for the first time on that day: before or after the patching process. Missions and arena rewards are only generated when requested by a player's account, not automatically for everybody at the daily reset. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antimon Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 (edited) Il 18/2/2020 in 17:20 , Antimon ha scritto: Back to the reports, today, tuesday 18th/february (Valentine surprise) I got 0 orbs from missions and 2 orbs from battling Karole 43 times, so: - 7 epic pachinko orbs in 289 battles - 5 epic pachinko orb from missions in 6 days (0/3 in 2 days; 1/3 in 3 day; 2/3 in 1 days; 3/3 in 0 days) Wednesday 19th/february (Epic days) - Karole, 33 battles + Jackson's crew, 52 battles (59 - 7 default adventure item), 0 orbs ; 1 orbs from epic missions, so: - 7 epic pachinko orbs in 374 battles (~1,87%) - 6 epic pachinko orb from missions in 7 days (0/3 in 2 days; 1/3 in 4 day; 2/3 in 1 days; 3/3 in 0 days) Il 18/2/2020 in 18:19 , Тёмный Властелин ha scritto: Table for epic missions. I'll add the overall sums as soon as the pool of participants settles. I just wanted to say that I'll put my epic missions rewards screenshots in spoiler tags Edited February 19, 2020 by Antimon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 19, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 19, 2020 11 hours ago, DvDivXXX said: 0 orbs in 78 battles 2 orbs in 18 missions 0 orbs in 109 battles 3 orbs in 21 missions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Тёмный Властелин Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 @Karyia, thanks for the screen. I've added you to the table. Can you, please, specify, what date does it refer to? 1 hour ago, Antimon said: I just wanted to say that I'll put my epic missions rewards screenshots in spoiler tags Oh, that's definitely as it should be. Thanks. I'll put mine into spoilers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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