Event Koban prices

[Vexen666]

Edit: So I made the table with @bolitho76's help. You can find it here or attached below. I'd still love to get notes to improve it from anyone who wants to help.

 

So I'm not sure if this is the place to post this, so sorry in advance if it's not.

I saw that a lot of the veteran players here know that there's no point in trying mythic days unless you have at 15000+ Kobans" or that orgy days needs around 1800 Kobans for refills. I'm trying to make a handy list for estimations of how many Kobans you need to spend for every event (To be posted here when I'm done, OC) so that new players will get an estimation of when it's worth it to spend resources on an event and when they shouldn't even try...  (I know some of these are answered in the Q&A, but I think having it all in one place can be nice).

So I'd love to ask for the help of the experts to fill in these blanks (Or correct me on the ones I already answered):

Classic event- You can usually get at least one girl without refills. Need c.a _______ Kobans to get a 2nd girl, and anyone beyond that is another c.a _______ Kobans.

Mythic days- Don't try if you don't have 15000+ (2500 in Nutaku) Kobans, or c.a 8700 (1450 in Nutaku) and 5 Sandalwood.

Legendary/Epic days- You might be able to get at least one girl without refills if you're lucky. Normally it requires c.a ______ Kobans for the first girls and c.a _______ for any girl past that.

Orgy days- You can usually get at least one girl without refills. You might be able to get at a 2nd girl if you're lucky. Normally it requires c.a _______ Kobans for the 2nd and c.a _______ for any girl past that.

Kinky cumpetition- Don't try if you don't have ___________ .

Anniversary event- No idea how it works. never did one. 

 

I might also add a PoA one though that one is pretty self explanatory going in, you don't have to worry about wasting resources on it for nothing and I'm not sure if the requirements for each tier change with your level.

Thanks in advance everyone

 

 

Event Koban cost.xlsx

Edited January 26, 2022 by Vexen666
Updated files

[bolitho76]

Classic event: Duration 9 Days, natural regen combativity: 432, drop-range: 2-8, average needed drops for 100 shards: 20, no Koban needed, 32 combativity in average more than needed. Attention! If you participate in Mythic Days: 3 days lesser for Classic Event; 144 lesser combativity for Classic Event so you need 112 extra combativity for the second girl - they kost ca. 1200 Koban. Additional Girl from Champions is new and the dropchance at fullfill stage 1-4 of Champion not known surely so at the moment no Kobancost calculable.

Mythic Days: Parallel to Classic event and can influence Classic Event.

Legendary Days: Duration 4 Days, natural regen combativity: 192, drop-range: 1-3, average needed drops for 100 shards: 50, 19 in average from natural regen, needed in average 310 combativity from refills, 3348 Koban needed.

Epic Days: Duration 4 Days, natural regen combativity: 192, drop-range: 1-5, average needed drops for 100 shards: 34, 19 in average from natural regen, needed in average 150 combativity from refills, 1620 Koban needed.

Orgy Days: Duration 5 Days, natural regen combativity: 240, drop-range: 1-12, needed average drops for 100 shards: 16, no Koban needed for one girl, second girl from bosses needs 80 combativity from refills, 864 Koban, third+ girls needs 1728 Koban fro refills. One girl avalaible if all Daily event Missions are done. Additional Girls from Champions is new and the dropchance at fullfill stage 1-4 of Champion not known surely so at the moment no Kobancost calculable.

Kinky Cumpetition: 97 League Tokens from natural regen, drop-range: 1-4, drop-chance: ca. 10% so you can expect 25 shards from League; 48 Kisses in Season, drop-range 1, drop-chance: 50% so you can expect 24 shards from Season. Additional League tokens: avoid this; Additional Kisses; You can get them from Seasen, Path of Valor, Path of Attraction, Champions and daily Login. 100 kisses needed for 50 shards they will cost 2160 Koban.

Anniversary: Different every year so nothing you can calculate.

Path of Attraction: A lot of requirements for stages are based on your level but normaly you can make the whole path after you pass Lvl 350 (probably earlier but with 250* I'm pretty sure it will go) without spending Koban. Second Path with precious Ressources and two girls: 7200 Koban

Path of Valor: every 2 weeks, second path with one girl and preciou Ressources: 3600 Koban

Legendary Contests: Only doable with preparation and that includes normaly not to spend Koban, but to hoard other ressources.

Hope, I didn't forgot something but in the case if: "salvo errore et omissione"

[Vexen666]

58 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

Classic event: Duration 9 Days, natural regen combativity: 432, drop-range: 2-8, average needed drops for 100 shards: 20, no Koban needed, 32 combativity in average more than needed. Attention! If you participate in Mythic Days: 3 days lesser for Classic Event; 144 lesser combativity for Classic Event so you need 112 extra combativity for the second girl - they kost ca. 1200 Koban. Additional Girl from Champions is new and the dropchance at fullfill stage 1-4 of Champion not known surely so at the moment no Kobancost calculable.

Mythic Days: Parallel to Classic event and can influence Classic Event.

Legendary Days: Duration 4 Days, natural regen combativity: 192, drop-range: 1-3, average needed drops for 100 shards: 50, 19 in average from natural regen, needed in average 310 combativity from refills, 3348 Koban needed.

Epic Days: Duration 4 Days, natural regen combativity: 192, drop-range: 1-5, average needed drops for 100 shards: 34, 19 in average from natural regen, needed in average 150 combativity from refills, 1620 Koban needed.

Orgy Days: Duration 5 Days, natural regen combativity: 240, drop-range: 1-12, needed average drops for 100 shards: 16, no Koban needed for one girl, second girl from bosses needs 80 combativity from refills, 864 Koban, third+ girls needs 1728 Koban fro refills. One girl avalaible if all Daily event Missions are done. Additional Girls from Champions is new and the dropchance at fullfill stage 1-4 of Champion not known surely so at the moment no Kobancost calculable.

Kinky Cumpetition: 97 League Tokens from natural regen, drop-range: 1-4, drop-chance: ca. 10% so you can expect 25 shards from League; 48 Kisses in Season, drop-range 1, drop-chance: 50% so you can expect 24 shards from Season. Additional League tokens: avoid this; Additional Kisses; You can get them from Seasen, Path of Valor, Path of Attraction, Champions and daily Login. 100 kisses needed for 50 shards they will cost 2160 Koban.

Anniversary: Different every year so nothing you can calculate.

Path of Attraction: A lot of requirements for stages are based on your level but normaly you can make the whole path after you pass Lvl 350 (probably earlier but with 250* I'm pretty sure it will go) without spending Koban. Second Path with precious Ressources and two girls: 7200 Koban

Path of Valor: every 2 weeks, second path with one girl and preciou Ressources: 3600 Koban

Legendary Contests: Only doable with preparation and that includes normaly not to spend Koban, but to hoard other ressources.

Hope, I didn't forgot something but in the case if: "salvo errore et omissione"

Amazing! that's exactly what I was looking for.

Kinda ashamed to admit I thought all those estimations were based on some highly complicated math, but it's basically your average shards per drop is X, so you need [100/X drops, and your drop rate is always 10% so it's just a matter of (100/X- Natural regen/10)*10] to know by average how many drops you're gonna need.

I saw your calculation had combativity at 1=10.8 Kobans, but in Nutaku 20 combativity is 31 Kobans, AKA 210 on HH. That puts combativity at 1=10.5. Is there something I'm missing or is combativity cheaper at Nutaku?

P.S: on a personal note- you wrote that in kinky cumpetition you would recommend avoiding refilling league tokens and you would rather refill kisses, though it seems kisses cost more than league tokens (210=10 kisses,  192= 15 tokens). Why is that?

P.S pt2: you said you can make kinky cumpetition by saving resources for it from season and PoV etc..., but I find myself using all those resources for PoA if I want to make it in time. Do you manage to do PoA without saving up? or are you choosing which one you're doing this month each time?

 

 

[bolitho76]

A picture says more than thousand words 😉

 

At 55min to wait, so one Koban cheaper than at the full hour.

With kisses you have a mor planable result. With the 50/50 chance a bad streak is much smaler than in League. With the 10% it could be that you had a bad streak and didn't get one drop a whole day, or both days longs or you gain the excepted drops, but only 1 or 2 shards and if you will have a good performance in the League, whats necessary to get the great rewards in D2/D3 you have to make a good performance and shouldn't rush so you can battle against all opponents if you have all aces on your side and not when the KC came to his end. With Kisses you can say if you invest 100 Kisses you will realy get 50 shards with a variance of +/-5 but in League the variance is much greater.

I can manage PoA mostly with using natural regen and this since a long time. Can't remember since when, but I think since the 5th or 6th PoA for sure. I start in the event with full bars (or bars that will be full at the expected time I will need them). At Level 463 I loose not often in Season and League (in this month in Season 11 fights, in the last league 5 times, this week until now 9 times until now but this time there are some very strong opponents in my D3). Sometimes I use Energy from Saeson and PoA to rush the relevant stage but no kisses or combativity needed and mostly end 25 hours for the end of the event (mostly to have better chances of an easy contest for the contestpoints).

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by bolitho76

[Vexen666]

4 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

I can manage PoA mostly with using natural regen and this since a long time. Can't remember since when, but I think since the 5th or 6th PoA for sure. I start in the event with full bars (or bars that will be full at the expected time I will need them). At Level 463 I loose not often in Season and League (in this month in Season 11 fights, in the last league 5 times, this week until now 9 times until now but this time there are some very strong opponents in my D3). Sometimes I use Energy from Saeson and PoA to rush the relevant stage but no kisses or combativity needed and mostly end 25 hours for the end of the event (mostly to have better chances of an easy contest for the contestpoints).

Interesting... I'll wait for tomorrow and see if I can make it without using outside resources. If I can then that might be a major gamechanger as it means I'll be able to use to combativity for Legendary/Epic/Mythic days and the kisses for Kinky cumpetition. Thanks!  

[bolitho76]

Don't forget that you can gain some precious koban with the saved Ressources from contests. To save the combativty for MD is a mixed blessing! You have to wait some days can't participate in the Classic-Event and loose the natural regen from theese days. At the time they had 8 girls in Classic-Event (3 on bosses, 4 in Pachinko) it was a good thing to storage the Season and PoA combativity to get the first girl at the start of Classic Event. At the moment I will spend most of the combativity from Season in Orgy Days (if I have more than one girl on bosses avalaible).

[Vexen666]

So I organized it all into one table, Along with the option to input how much of the event has gone by+ how many shards you got and get an output of how much refills you need now. Hope this helps people! (Don't know if I should post this in a new post so that people will see)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRRdHavQ_x5-CFSSFEubfxAhynJJ_qzfQlVdUewETPG-h3SK8PoQI7NcuN318tzGGVr4E_DI9FU0ivz/pubhtml

 

Enjoy and let me know if you find any problems... 

Event Koban cost.xlsx

[430i]

Interesting, I did the math myself a while ago, but I get slightly different numbers and I wonder why this is. My calculation is based on the average number of combativity needed to get the girl. For example for orgy days this would be

ceil((100/((1+12)/2))/0.1)

which is 154 combativity. I think 1 combativity costs 11 kobans, so this means 1694 according to my math,compared to 1728 in yours.

[bolitho76]

@430i

20 combativity costs 216 Koban; 50 combaticity costs 540 Koban. You can see it some posts above in the screenshots. In both cases is one combativity at 10,8.

Needed combativity per girl in Orgy Days: Drop Chance 10%, Drop Range: 1-12 is an average drop of 6,5. To reach 100 shards you need 16 drops. 15 drops didn't reach the 100, 16 drops give you a little bit more shards than hundred, but you have to get a minimum of 100 shards so you need 16 in average. With an 10% chance of drop every tenth try is a drop so you need 160 combativity.

The difference is, I calculate not in one equation the needed amount of combativity, I did it in two and say at first: How many shards in an average drop and than how much of theese average drops do I need. You're nearer the ideal average but your math didn't involve that there is mostly an overhead of shards which you get in flowers.

Or in other words: Your math says that you need 15,4 drops to get 100 shards, but drops are not divisible so you have to round up to the next full number.

Edited January 23, 2022 by bolitho76

[Liliat]

il y a une heure, 430i a dit :

I think 1 combativity costs 11 kobans

It's 10.8 (But it's rounded up, so 11 for 1 is correct; but on average it goes down to 10.8)

Note: the cost for MD is for standard MD (3 days of natural regen, with potential saved combativity from PoA). For revivals, it's a bit more expensive:

- Only 2 days of free regen, so 48 more Fights to buy

- No PoA rewards. I don't remember how many fights this is. 20-something?

- More competition for the shards: Only 4500 every 2 hours for 2 days, vs 9000 every 2 hours for 3 days. This means that you might need to play x50 fights, in order to get enough shards on time. Which is obviously more expensive.

Edited January 23, 2022 by Liliat

[Vexen666]

9 minutes ago, Liliat said:

It's 10.8 (But it's rounded up, so 11 for 1 is correct; but on average it goes down to 10.8)

Note: the cost for MD is for standard MD (3 days of natural regen, with potential saved combativity from PoA). For revivals, it's a bit more expensive:

- Only 2 days of free regen, so 48 more Fights to buy

- No PoA rewards. I don't remember how many fights this is. 20-something?

- More competition for the shards: Only 4500 every 2 hours for 2 days, vs 9000 every 2 hours for 3 days. This means that you might need to play x50 fights, in order to get enough shards on time. Which is obviously more expensive.

Actually this one is the first mythical revival event I've seen so far, so I didn't know what the details were. Was there another one before this one?

Anyway the only difference it seems is in the duration, as the calculation assumes you're only fighting when there are shards available so it doesn't matter if it's 4500, 9000 or 1M... I think since revivals also usually mean you already have some shards for the girl I might just put it in a note to use the red table for it (The one where you can put in remaining time+ Shards collected for how much refills you're gonna need)

[FinderKeeper]

Personally, rather than counting all numbers again each time I figured two mental shortcuts.

For example, for Epic Days event I'll need 2000/(1+5) combativity per girl or 21600/(1+5) kobans if I need to pay for it in full.

The (1+5) part is the drop range - from 1 to 5.

This mental shortcut is valid for Classic (2 to 8), Orgy Days (1 to 12), Epic Days (1 to 5), Legendary (1 to 3), Anniversary (1 to 4) type events.

 

[Vexen666]

33 minutes ago, FinderKeeper said:

Personally, rather than counting all numbers again each time I figured two mental shortcuts.

For example, for Epic Days event I'll need 2000/(1+5) combativity per girl or 21600/(1+5) kobans if I need to pay for it in full.

The (1+5) part is the drop range - from 1 to 5.

This mental shortcut is valid for Classic (2 to 8), Orgy Days (1 to 12), Epic Days (1 to 5), Legendary (1 to 3), Anniversary (1 to 4) type events.

 

I'm not sure I understood the shortcut... Can you elaborate? What is the 2000 (Or 21600) and why do you divide it by the drop range and not the drop range average?

[FinderKeeper]

1 hour ago, Vexen666 said:

I'm not sure I understood the shortcut... Can you elaborate? What is the 2000 (Or 21600) and why do you divide it by the drop range and not the drop range average?

For drop range average you only need both ends divided by 2. And you can simplify the fraction that the only variable part is the drop range.

Basically you can calculate everything but the ends of the drop range.

 

ADD: If you are looking for a cleaner way to look at calculation part of it, try it like this - during epic days you get (1+5) / 20 shards per combat or (1+5) shards per 20 combat refill.

Edited January 23, 2022 by FinderKeeper

[Vexen666]

34 minutes ago, FinderKeeper said:

For drop range average you only need both ends divided by 2. And you can simplify the fraction that the only variable part is the drop range.

Basically you can calculate everything but the ends of the drop range.

 

ADD: If you are looking for a cleaner way to look at calculation part of it, try it like this - during epic days you get (1+5) / 20 shards per combat or (1+5) shards per 20 combat refill.

So I still don't really understand what the 2000 and 21600 stand for, or why It's not (1+5)/2 for the drop rate? 

Sorry if I'm being a bit dense, maybe it's a language thing, I'm just not sure I understand what your formula represents.. My calculation is similar to bolitho- (100/average shard drop)/drop rate= average needed combativity. Then it's just calculating how much combativity you'll regenerate during the event and how much more you'll need to refill on average to reach the needed combativity.

[Liliat]

Il y a 3 heures, Vexen666 a dit :

Anyway the only difference it seems is in the duration, as the calculation assumes you're only fighting when there are shards available so it doesn't matter if it's 4500, 9000 or 1M

Yeah... assuming there are enough shards for everyone. If there are enough - fine. Otherwise, you start realizing "Oh, shit, I need to do 750 fights in less than 2 minutes. I better start using x50 fights if I want a chance". And then the cost goes up.

[Vexen666]

1 minute ago, Liliat said:

Yeah... assuming there are enough shards for everyone. If there are enough - fine. Otherwise, you start realizing "Oh, shit, I need to do 750 fights in less than 2 minutes. I better start using x50 fights if I want a chance". And then the cost goes up.

Hmmm... That's a good point. I haven't even thought about X50 fights as I never use them. I wonder if that's something you can calculate at all though, as to my understanding most regular mythic days end with shards to spare at the end, so I'm guessing the rush for shards on revival is by people who either weren't around for the first time or weren't able to compete. Either way I guess the revival event will end with shards to spare and rushing won't be an issue for most if you have the patience to sit and press fight 750 times (I'm purely speculating as, again, I don't have a mythic yet). So the question is whether that's a common enough occurrence that you can calculate it as an added probable cost (And if so how many times) or if that's just on the same level as "I didn't spend all my combativity right away so I lost some of the natural regen ones and now have to buy refills", which is not really something you can or should take into account making these charts (I mean, beyond the red table).

[Liliat]

I don't remember precisely, since I came back to the game during the first couple of revivals, and wasn't really paying attention to MD back then (I still got Bunna though ), but I think you shouldn't expect too many shards left at the end.

At best, the shards will vanish in 10-15 minutes on the last day, rather than 2 minutes, and that should give enough time to get most shards. Maybe.

There are only 108k Shards available this time, vs 324k for the main event. Just a third. And I don't think we've ever completed the standard MD with 200k shards left. Usually it's more like 30-60k, I think (Sometimes even 0 ). So, we'll see what happens this time, but don't get your hopes up.

[bolitho76]

@Liliat @Vexen666

In my opinione you can't take all possible problems in account to make such a chart. Things like a long bad streak, the impossibility to play the game for a day or more of reasons, or the problem of the "only 4500 shards every 2h are away in one minute" aren't calculable for that kind of chart. They should be in mind, becauyse they will destroy every planing that haven't security perimeter but you can't implement them in the chart. A chart is a helpful thing, because it make it visible how it will be in average and in long term all will be in average, but it can't show every particular case of short time imbalance.

In addition this is the third Mythic Revival ever and the first to were Bunna and Estelle, two very popular character. We don't know if Alexa will so popular to and another question is the "water level" of Koban at the playerbase. Some longtime paying player have left the game or wont pay anything more so we have to wait and see. Probably in some months we can get more conclusion about the obligatory need of x50 fights in Mythic Revivals.

The two revivals hadn't shards left and from all "normal" MD's only Finalmecia run out of shards. Your 30-60k shards rest fits from my memorization.

[Liliat]

il y a 2 minutes, bolitho76 a dit :

In addition this is the third Mythic Revival ever and the first to were Bunna and Estelle, two very popular character. We don't know if Alexa will so popular to and another question is the "water level" of Koban at the playerbase.

It's also the first revival with SP. This means that she will be cheaper (so more players can attempt to get her), but also that the pool of shards will decrease a bit slower (since each player using SP only needs 50 shards)

[FinderKeeper]

@Vexen666 Ok.

 

1) First, we get (1+5)/2 shards per 10 combats, right? So times two it's (1+5) per 20. I'm choosing to write this as a rate of (1+5)/20 shards per 1 combat.

Now dividing 100 target shards by our rate (1+5)/20 (shard/combat) is 100*20 / (1+5) combats.

This is 2000 / (1+5) (combats).

 

2) Then we have 216/20 as koban cost of 1 combat.

Multiplying 2000 / (1+5) (combats) by 216/20 (kobans/combats). This gives us 216* 20*100 / (1+5)*20.

And finaly its 21600 / (1+5) (kobans).

 

EDIT: And sorry if I touched it just briefly (could be that language thing) - koban cost here doesn't account for natural regen. It's just a little shortcut. 

Thinking about shortcuts, I could try to continue it by subtracting 48*days*216/20 from koban costs if I need to. This gives koban savings of 518.4*days. Or about 520 kobans per event day.

In another words - by using natural combativity regeneration we are saving about 520 kobans per day.

[Vexen666]

19 minutes ago, FinderKeeper said:

@Vexen666 Ok.

 

1) First, we get (1+5)/2 shards per 10 combats, right? So times two it's (1+5) per 20. I'm choosing to write this as a rate of (1+5)/20 shards per 1 combat.

Now dividing 100 target shards by our rate (1+5)/20 (shard/combat) is 100*20 / (1+5) combats.

This is 2000 / (1+5) (combats).

 

2) Then we have 216/20 as koban cost of 1 combat.

Multiplying 2000 / (1+5) (combats) by 216/20 (kobans/combats). This gives us 216* 20*100 / (1+5)*20.

And finaly its 21600 / (1+5) (kobans).

 

And sorry if I touched it just briefly (could be that language thing) - koban cost here doesn't account for natural regen. It's just a little shortcut. 

Ohhhhh now I got it. I do wonder why it gives out different results as both formulas are correct. Maybe it's a matter of where you round up or down. 

[bolitho76]

@FinderKeeper I have only one problem with your shortcut: It will fit fully for Classic Event, Mythic Days or Legendary Days, but in the case of Orgy Days and Epic Days there are a little problem. If we have an ideal average line of results your calculated costs will not fit because with your shortcut you will end (let's take your example of Epic Days) with 333,33 needed combativity. It's the problem, that you have to make some shards more in the ideal average - after 33 drops you will be at 99 shards and so you need the 34th so you have 102 shards in average to gain to get the girl in Epic Days. It's not a great issue but I think its remarkable and should be in mind.

[FinderKeeper]

Can agree on the math part of the last shard.  ADD: In another words, you're saying it needs to round up to nearest 10 (however it's called in english). In this case 340.

I'd just like to point out that this expected combativity and koban prices serve more as a guide only. We always need to plan for bad luck and have a reserve above that.

Edited January 23, 2022 by FinderKeeper

[Vexen666]

So I added another table to calculate time needed for PoA without using outside resources (Aside from Natural Regen/ Starting with a capped resource bank). You can also edit it to see if how much time it's going to take you from your current tier onwards. Hope this helps people. (It's currently set to the goals related to my level and you have to change it manually. I might update it once I learn how tier goals change from level to level so you'll only need to input your level)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRRdHavQ_x5-CFSSFEubfxAhynJJ_qzfQlVdUewETPG-h3SK8PoQI7NcuN318tzGGVr4E_DI9FU0ivz/pubhtml

 

Event Koban cost.xlsx