[ May 10th, 2023 ] LD #35 - Dorothy ⚪ & Madeline 🟡

[Ravi-Sama]

Dorothy ⚪ (Alice Zuberg from "Sword Art Online: Alicization")

Madeline 🟡 (Lucina from "Fire Emblem Awakening")

Edited May 11, 2023 by Ravi-Sama

[madahmed]

I have 15 shards for Madeline from her original event.

I decided to go for her first because i am close to get 100 playful girls for passive bonuses (97)

i will use 3 SP to get her and get 40 shards for Dorothy.

if i dont compromise my chances for the next MDR, i need to spend the least possible so i will wait for the last day to spend kobans and rely on reenation to get the maximum shards and if  I am lucky a 100 shards drop.

good luck for everyone.

[bolitho76]

Sadly the 4th field lacks a possible answer: I don't care who; relevant is only if the result is good or not.

[MrXY]

I think the for the first time I focus to get 40 shards for both. Madeline has some priority because it is her revival and we don't know if and when there is another one. My koban reserve after Season Event is nearly gone so I have to take care and need to skip some stuff. I decided to even skip the current PoV bonus path, which is the first time for me since its introduction. A lucky 100 shard drop this event would be really nice and helpful.

[Ravi-Sama]

7 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

Sadly the 4th field lacks a possible answer: I don't care who; relevant is only if the result is good or not.

Alright, I'll add an "I don't know/care" option for you.  Sounds good?

Personally, I'll get 40% for both using SP.  I don't think they're useful b/c of their elements, neither have dual attributes, I'm unfamiliar w/ the parodies, but I know of both franchises, and Toon Dude isn't my fave artist.  Also, we just had the SE/MD, so I'm low on kobans anyway.

Edited May 10, 2023 by Ravi-Sama

[KuroJack]

The second question say multiple choice... but only permit one choice.

I have 0 shards from Madeline, so I did not know she was parody from Lucina, she not look nothing similar maybe the tiara and sword... but so many princess with sword, I like the slim from Lucina, Madeline not have this <.< When I get Madeline later from Dorothy I could see if at least have any from her personality.

[Ravi-Sama]

4 hours ago, KuroJack said:

The second question say multiple choice... but only permit one choice.

Thanks for spotting that.  Fixed.

[Julius Fox]

Not a big fan of the art for either, and I don't particularly need them strategically at the moment, so I think I'll go the "get 40 shards for each so they'll show up in Sultry Mysteries route." Now that we can easily get the League girls we missed, there's not many L5s left for me to focus on in SM, so LD girls seem as good a target as any.

[Master-17]

About Madeline. Here's what I think about her drawing:

[OmerB]

I'm going for Dorothy (I'm thinking about the Wizard of Oz every time that I'm writing that name), since I want a submissive girl more than a playful one atm (and I'm also more in need of Black gems). So the choice was easy for me, although I like Madeline art a bit more.

I put my first SP, and I'll how far it'll take me.

[Ravi-Sama]

Started w/ 5% shards for Madeline 🟡.  Naturally, I pursued her first.  Got 29% more shards from 10 drops, whilst using 1 SP, at an 8.47% drop rate.  Then, had 34%.

Surprisingly, got a 100% drop after already using ~118 CP.  It gave the remaining 66% shards + 1 extra shard due to the SP.

What are the odds?!  About 1/1000, I suppose.

I was about to switch to Ninja Spy for Dorothy ⚪ anyway, cuz I was close to 40% for Madeline.

Lucina art by Cait Aron & Aztodio/Chihunhentai.

[Liliat]

il y a 4 minutes, Ravi-Sama a dit :

What are the odds?!  About 1/1000, I suppose.

It's a lot less. LD girls typically require 500 combativity (avg), so we would get a x100 drop every other girl if the odds were 1/1000 (Once per LD on average, if one's going for both girls).

[Ravi-Sama]

3 minutes ago, Liliat said:

It's a lot less. LD girls typically require 500 combativity (avg), so we would get a x100 drop every other girl if the odds were 1/1000 (Once per LD on average, if one's going for both girls).

Not sure that's true.  I ran it in the probability sim.  If the odds are 0.001% (1/1000), then after using 1000 CP, the probability of getting the 100% shard drop is just ~1%.

[Liliat]

il y a 7 minutes, Ravi-Sama a dit :

If the odds are 0.001% (1/1000)

0.001% is 1/100,000, not 1/1000 (It's 1/1000%, maybe; although that's a super weird notation )

[Ravi-Sama]

20 minutes ago, Liliat said:

0.001% is 1/100,000, not 1/1000 (It's 1/1000%, maybe; although that's a super weird notation )

Alright, if I switch it from my incorrect 0.001% to 0.1%, then the probability improves to 63% after using 1000 CP.

Meaning about 2 in 3 players should get a 100% drop after 1000 CP.  Natural regen grants about 200 CP per LD, so after 5 LDs, you've got a ~63% probability for a 100% shard drop.  Sounds right?

Unless I did the math wrong again.

It's late, I'm gonna sleep.  Glad I got her.  One less girl to get from the SM.

Edited May 12, 2023 by Ravi-Sama

[Liliat]

il y a 16 minutes, Ravi-Sama a dit :

Meaning about 2 in 3 players should get a 100% drop after 1000 CP.  Natural regen grants about 200 CP per LD, so after 5 LDs, you've got a ~63% probability for a 100% shard drop.  Sounds right?

Yep. And some players would have 2 or even 3 x100 drop in this interval.

I've been heavily refilling for LD for the past few months to get both girls each time (800~1000+ combativity every month on LD), and I'm definitely not getting this kind of  x100 drop rate (Of course, my own sample size is too low to draw any conclusion).

I think somewhere between 1/3000 and 1/10000 is more realistic, but that's just a gut feeling. I'm sure Zoopokemon's villains stats script can help us here (I just only recently started using it, so I have barely collected anything yet).

[zoopokemon]

I've just assumed the chance for getting a 100 shards is 1/1,000 after getting a shard drop which would already be around a 1/10 chance. Checking over all my recorded data for all CEs, ODs, and LDs I've had 615 shard drops over 7,727 combativity (7.96%). Out of all those shard drops only one was a 100 shard drop (0.16%).

[Liliat]

il y a 20 minutes, zoopokemon a dit :

I've just assumed the chance for getting a 100 shards is 1/1,000 after getting a shard drop which would already be around a 1/10 chance. Checking over all my recorded data for all CEs, ODs, and LDs I've had 615 shard drops over 7,727 combativity (7.96%). Out of all those shard drops only one was a 100 shard drop (0.16%).

I'm not sure you need a shard drop to get a x100. If I remember correctly, some players have reported getting 101 shards (Drop + x100 together), whereas others have reported a simple x100 (No drop + x100)

[Methos2]

26 minutes ago, zoopokemon said:

Checking over all my recorded data for all CEs, ODs, and LDs I've had 615 shard drops over 7,727 combativity (7.96%)

7727 is a decent sample size. So are the event drop rate closer to 8% than 10%?

[garadron]

29 minutes ago, Liliat said:

I'm not sure you need a shard drop to get a x100. If I remember correctly, some players have reported getting 101 shards (Drop + x100 together), whereas others have reported a simple x100 (No drop + x100)

isn't the 101 coming from Sandalwood?

[Liliat]

il y a 13 minutes, garadron a dit :

isn't the 101 coming from Sandalwood?

Sometimes yes, but there were also report of e.g. 105 during OD/CE

[zoopokemon]

46 minutes ago, Liliat said:

I'm not sure you need a shard drop to get a x100. If I remember correctly, some players have reported getting 101 shards (Drop + x100 together), whereas others have reported a simple x100 (No drop + x100)

101 shards would just be 2 shard drops, one for 1 shard and another for 100. Or it was just a 100 shard drop with a sandalwood as already mentioned.

[garadron]

  I personally got 107 once but that's because I mostly use x10 fights these days

On 3/8/2023 at 1:34 PM, garadron said:

Thanks, I guess?

 

[Liliat]

Oh, right, I forgot about the x10/x50. That would explain why people may get 105 shards even during LD then.

Wasn't there a case of someone getting a x200 shards drop? Which would be a x100 on top of a x100? That would hint to the fact that x100 shard drops are indeed triggered by shard drops (including other x100).

[zoopokemon]

1 minute ago, Liliat said:

Oh, right, I forgot about the x10/x50. That would explain why people may get 105 shards even during LD then.

Wasn't there a case of someone getting a x200 shards drop? Which would be a x100 on top of a x100? That would hint to the fact that x100 shard drops are indeed triggered by shard drops (including other x100).

There is actually a odd quirk to the x10/x50 battles in how they handle the drop chances. While normally when doing single battles when you finish a girl it of course updates the drop pool and you can't get more shards. But for x10/x50 it just uses the drop pool from when you start so if get the girl in one of those battles you can still get more shards, thus allowing people to end with 101 shards for a mythic (without sandalwood) or even two x100 shard drops for the same girl (most reports of that are for the one stars).