GeorgeMTO Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 hours ago, Joe-da-G said: @BananaJoy, they are supposedly on two distinct drop tables, so the fact that there are still boss girls should not impact the possibility of gaining an event girl's shards. Kaos has implied otherwise on the test server. We're not 100% sure if that's what he means, but that was the most obvious implication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cantrix Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 hours ago, GeorgeMTO said: Kaos has implied otherwise on the test server. We're not 100% sure if that's what he means, but that was the most obvious implication. Well, even though i want to act surprised i'm not since i suspected this was the case from a long time ago. What i don't understand why there was a need of a smoke screen with the different loot tables. If the statement of Kaos is true that both normal and event girls can influence their respective drop rates i think we don't need more explanations on the subject. So glad i cleared out every boss except Karole, but i doubt there will be an event including her given their love of the Dark Lord and Grunt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lhans Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 4 hours ago, Cantrix said: So glad i cleared out every boss except Karole, but i doubt there will be an event including her given their love of the Dark Lord and Grunt... When the new system is out, it would make Darklord, Grunt, and Ninja Spy easier to give up their girls at least due to the higher shard give out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bane Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Been farming Edwarda as still got Eugenie to get there and after 129 fights i have had 101 cash and 28 shards, of which 72 were for Eugenie and 29 for Val Shao. i know its rng but not looking good for event girls for me if i have got boss girl still to catch. Luckily on HH i only have 1 of Karole's left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeMTO Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Lhans said: When the new system is out, it would make Darklord, Grunt, and Ninja Spy easier to give up their girls at least due to the higher shard give out. Their normal girls drop very easily already. Won't make much of a difference for experienced players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lhans Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, GeorgeMTO said: Their normal girls drop very easily already. Won't make much of a difference for experienced players. It took forever for me to get Ninja Spy to give up his. RNG ya know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy55 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 (edited) It looks to me as if the formula for event girls is (P*S)*CP*D=200 where P is the probability of getting event shards S is the average number of shards gotten per successful battle which is 1 to 6 or which if each number has an equal chance is an average of 3.5 shards CP is the number of Combativity Points per day or 48 D is the number of Days in the Event which is 12 solving for P=200/(3.5*48*12) or just under 10% On average we should get an event girl in 6 days, assuming the average shards gotten is correct (and u know what assume means). Just my thoughts. Edited February 3, 2019 by Tommy55 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lhans Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Tommy55 said: On average we should get an event girl in 6 days, assuming the average shards gotten is correct (and u know what assume means). So if there's a 4 or 5 day event with 5 new girls, we aren't gonna get even 1 without using kobans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jijo250 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 hours ago, Tommy55 said: It looks to me as if the formula for event girls is (P*S)*CP*D=200 solving for P=200/(3.5*48*12) or just under 10% Question: Where did you get the 200 from? 1 hour ago, Lhans said: So if there's a 4 or 5 day event with 5 new girls, we aren't gonna get even 1 without using kobans. You might be thinking of the Epic events. Those are girls from Epic Pachinko. The odds of getting any of those for free just out right suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trunks2585 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 There's also the revivals though, in which case with how they explained how shards will work on event pachinco, they are basically telling everyone just to play pachinko. This is a shame, another potentially good system that's been twisted by greed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelom Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 hours ago, jijo250 said: Question: Where did you get the 200 from? I think he get it from 100 shards/girl x 2 girls/event = 200 shards / event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy55 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 hours ago, jelom said: I think he get it from 100 shards/girl x 2 girls/event = 200 shards / event Yes, that is correct. Sorry for the oversight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jijo250 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 11:55 AM, jelom said: I think he get it from 100 shards/girl x 2 girls/event = 200 shards / event On 2/3/2019 at 2:47 PM, Tommy55 said: Yes, that is correct. Sorry for the oversight. If that is true, then the formula: (P*S)*CP*D=200 is wrong. This is assuming that the devs are giving us a split chance to get both girls by the end of the event. We don't know that's what they did. The only way you can solve for P is by taking samples of actual results. However the samples that I took does show around 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy55 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 2 hours ago, jijo250 said: If that is true, then the formula: (P*S)*CP*D=200 is wrong... No it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jijo250 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 9 hours ago, Tommy55 said: No it isn't. Then explain to me how (chance of shard drop) X (average shard amount) X (combat points per day) X (days) = enough shards for 2 girls. If that is true, do you think that there is an increased drop rate during epic and legendary events? 'S' will drop in Legendary, and girls will jump to 500 in epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windia Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 got shao due to 100 shards, unluckily no extra shard to see how transformation into epic gifts will go. the final shards were delivered with usual reward animation. the girl itself got this animation: black surrounding like in harem gets filled up with shard's color and then turns into the shown one. it is just as I pointed out in the patch notes earlier: only everything above 100 shards will become epics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy55 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 The number of shards dropped changes depending on the type of event, and I am modeling the 12 day event only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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