GeorgeMTO Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, jaybee said: Totally average luck gives you 500 fights and 10 days to get two girls. Uh, these numbers feel wrong to me. Care to explain how you came up with these? Because they don't fit with a 10% drop rate and 3.5 average shard drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaybee Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 (edited) The shard system has been in place for two months. My results this far from classical events: 315+239 (554 fights), 233+263 (496 fights). Looking at what other people have posted, these are pretty boring average fight numbers. There are many reports of people needing fewer fights (i.e. they are "lucky") or more fights (i.e. they are "unlucky") but my experience says this is the boring average luck. Now, in the third month, my dailies are 20 + 18 + 18 + 24 + 20 - exactly 100 shards in five days. Again, as boring and as average as you can be. Compared to the others, I don't feel I have been lucky or unlucky this far. There have been plenty of players finishing with their event before me ("lucky"). Plenty of players complaining that they needed to buy fights ("unlucky"). I have just... been. Boring. Average. Edited May 6, 2019 by jaybee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zamio Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Keeka dropped after 270 combats. Shard drops slowed down considerably after a flying start. Should be comfortable enough to get Petal, though. But the slow slog and no jackpot means I will probably have zero time yet again to work on normal boss girls (still to get any of Bremen's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triplecane Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Zamio said: Keeka dropped after 270 combats. Shard drops slowed down considerably after a flying start. Should be comfortable enough to get Petal, though. But the slow slog and no jackpot means I will probably have zero time yet again to work on normal boss girls (still to get any of Bremen's). Congratulations. After 262 fights I don't even have 50 shards. Rotten luck I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 This is an absolutely magic event for me too. I have had another x100 shard jackpot (in my test account). That makes 4 such drops and 74 flowers (odd when she was already at x87 before the jackpot). I'm progressing well to get both girls in all accounts without refills. I don't know how many combats to get to this stage. I haven't kept track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zteev Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, jaybee said: Yes, totally average luck would be 100 shards after five days, so you are just 20% behind the average, that's almost a statistical anomaly. I think you have to score even less to officially be in the "low luck" group. A bit of second-tier luck (drops of 6 shards) and you will be back in the saddle. Totally average luck gives you 500 fights and 10 days to get two girls. You get an extra two days and 100 fights (total of 600) to fight the statistics and anomalies. You are "low in luck" if you need more than 600 fights during 12 days (i.e. you have to buy more fights). That is actually a very big possibility but you need 10-11 days of doing all of the available fights before you can decide that you are officially not lucky this time and there's no statistical hope to save it . Right now everything is still possible for you Jaybee's takeaway about waiting and deciding how lucky you are overall is spot on. George MTO's feeling about the math is somewhat right, though. To be more exacting on the math: 12 (# of event days) x 48 (number of free attacks per day) = 576, which is the number of free attacks one generates, if you don't lose any regeneration due to time. 576 (free attacks) x 0.10 (drop rate) x 3.5 (average drop amount) = 201.6 shards dropped for the whole event. Note that 3.5 is most certainly not the true average, as the 100 shard drops aren't in the range of 1-6, but happen, and would skew that average upwards, assuming all results of 1-6 are equally likely. If you start the event with 20 banked and ready to go, you will be exactly at 500 10 days in, but will only get to 596 for free unless you get extra from league rewards or daily mission rewards. I have one girl, and am working on the other. Chose to divert some fights into Roko to win some Kobans in a contest, though. Edited May 6, 2019 by Zteev 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 35 minutes ago, Zteev said: if you don't lose any regeneration due to time Yes, exactly. At least some if this occurs at night when we need to get a night's sleep. My way around this is to clear combativity before bedtime, even if not completely refilled so I can get up to 10 hours sleep before it is refilled again. In my case I have a bit of a juggling act because I have 6 accounts. If there is more than 1 account on 20/20 I use combativity to get to around 17/20 (90 min margin) and go to the other one and clear this out completely, then return to the first one and finish this off. I repeat this for every account that is on 20/20. Because I often have to refresh 3 or 4 times because the RNG fails to load I have to give myself a good margin of error. This lets other accounts refill on their own before I get a chance to get back to them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHarry Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Zorba the Geek said: This is an absolutely magic event for me too. I have had another x100 shard jackpot (in my test account). That makes 4 such drops and 74 flowers (odd when she was already at x87 before the jackpot). I'm progressing well to get both girls in all accounts without refills. I don't know how many combats to get to this stage. I haven't kept track. Still 0 of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triplecane Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 51 minutes ago, Zorba the Geek said: Yes, exactly. At least some if this occurs at night when we need to get a night's sleep. My way around this is to clear combativity before bedtime, even if not completely refilled so I can get up to 10 hours sleep before it is refilled again. In my case I have a bit of a juggling act because I have 6 accounts. If there is more than 1 account on 20/20 I use combativity to get to around 17/20 (90 min margin) and go to the other one and clear this out completely, then return to the first one and finish this off. I repeat this for every account that is on 20/20. Because I often have to refresh 3 or 4 times because the RNG fails to load I have to give myself a good margin of error. This lets other accounts refill on their own before I get a chance to get back to them. Out of curiosity, why would you get more than 1 account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaybee Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 I have a different fight system that has led to this very boring and average 20 shards a day experience. I fight one by one. When I get a shard drop, even after one fight, I stop immediately and continue some hours later. When I don't get shards, I stop at 5 fights and continue some hours later. I still believe there is some intelligence behind the drops. Just yesterday morning, amid a lot of server freezing, I had 7 fights with 4 drops and 20 shards with those drops. What followed? 40 fights with zero drops (i.e. no more shards that day). There was absolutely no statistical reason for this correcting streak to happen immediately after a too good streak. But for some reason it did. Yeah, could be random, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blaa Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 4 hours ago, jaybee said: . I still believe there is some intelligence behind the drops. Just yesterday morning, amid a lot of server freezing, I had 7 fights with 4 drops and 20 shards with those drops. What followed? 40 fights with zero drops (i.e. no more shards that day). There was absolutely no statistical reason for this correcting streak to happen immediately after a too good streak. But for some reason it did. Yeah, could be random, but... Even so I think this is a conspiracy theory, the exact same thing happens to me (almost) every time, of course in both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fisticuz Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 The town looks like its inside "The Shimmer" from the movie Annihilation. Thank god none of the girls are half fused with a grizzly bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 18 hours ago, GeorgeMTO said: Actually it doesn't necessarily mean that the drop rate has been below 10%, it could also mean that your average shard drop is below 3.5 with them dropping 10% of the time. It's still quite possible to get both girls, because of the two different things that you could get lucky with. Maybe it was a bad wording by my part, but I was referring to the fact I had that shards in a low number of drops, certainly inferior to 10%, although I wasn't able to calculate exact numbers. 17 hours ago, jaybee said: You are "low in luck" if you need more than 600 fights during 12 days (i.e. you have to buy more fights). That is actually a very big possibility but you need 10-11 days of doing all of the available fights before you can decide that you are officially not lucky this time and there's no statistical hope to save it . Right now everything is still possible for you Apart the last sentence, I quite disagree on this. Moreover, the "up to now" I used in my previous post should have told you that mine was an estimation of the situation (obviously by my point of view and based on my game experience) compared to the average after five days. Although I am aware that all is still possible, I am also too well aware that more often RNG fucks my ass (longer, bigger, and all in one, as I already said elsewhere), bringing me to the "not optimistic" side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eman Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 Half the event has gone and I'm still fighting for my first girl. At least my luck has improved since the (awful) first days and I'm convinced I'll get Keeka, but when it comes to Petal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 11 hours ago, triplecane said: Out of curiosity, why would you get more than 1 account? A lot of people ask that and it's a fair question. I decided to go for just two in the beginning, but the ladies of this household wanted to have a go and I helped them set up their own accounts. This was three more. From a female perspective, they understandably became bored with the game and passed their accounts onto me and I stupidly said okay. I then started another one to make up for the one I thought I'd lost and ended up with yet another one. So on it goes, but I'll make no more. It now becomes really hard for me to quit these accounts because they're all different and have different qualities (and girls), plus the shameful aspect as far as yours truly is concerned in that I'm a little(?) addicted to the game. It's also interesting to see how the randomised system might actually work with a small sample of 6 accounts to compare. In the end I'll probably go cold turkey with the game entirely. I lost a lot of faith and enthusiasm for it when the shadow silhouette girl drops were abandoned for this new attraction system - sort of like throwing the baby out with the bathwater when HH should've asked: "If it ain't broke why fix it?". They should've created a hybrid system with best of both incorporated, especially the x100 shard jackpots. I'm hoping HH will listen eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 21 hours ago, Zorba the Geek said: I'm hoping HH will listen eventually. Have they ever? In the past I would have liked to offer my suggestions in the dedicated section of the forum, but it didn't take long to realize that that section is there just to offer players the illusion of being heard. Quoting Dante: "Leave all hope, you who enter". And my excuses for the off-topic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sanjkame Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 (edited) On 5/1/2019 at 6:30 PM, whocares said: 3 refills on petal , 58 attraction ,yes its the 1st day but with free in game kobans. put a little effort into it good luck all .my advice is do not wait till last day to spend on refills do it early then use daily tasks and won event kobans to refill each day, i have never failed to get all boss event girls legendary,epic or rare ,since i played this game ,oh and use times ten it costs but seem to have a lot better drop rate I started on 2017, just lost 2 girls from big events, and didn't need to spent kobans in 95% of these events... Edited May 7, 2019 by sanjkame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 27 minutes ago, Observer_X said: Have they ever? In the past I would have liked to offer my suggestions in the dedicated section of the forum, but it didn't take long to realize that that section is there just to offer players the illusion of being heard. Quoting Dante: "Leave all hope, you who enter". And my excuses for the off-topic. I was being a tad sarcastic in my hope for change. HH tend to cherry pick our suggestions to introduce changes they want and use our wish-lists as justification for them. It's more about spin than substance and lays more in the realm of how politicians beguile us. Apparently they do listen to views of players in the Discord, however. Anyway, back on topic. The only accounts where I now have both girls (or within a hair's breadth of getting the second) is where I won the first in either EvP or with a x100 jackpot. This suggests to me that it seems to require the expenditure of kobans to get both girls in time, something not necessary for me in all but one account per event before the changes. The other frustrating thing I've noticed is that getting those last shards when the girl is sitting in the 90s is difficult. In Peregrine Took I had Petal sitting on x96 and had 20 spins to get the last 4. Eezy peezy, you'd say, but no. I had a x1 drop and no more. The next try of 20 nothing, but in other accounts where I had a lot more shards to collect to win her love and where there was, therefore, less at stake I had a lot more luck. This is where the skills of the developers have come in. They know human psychology and gambling addiction patterns so well that there is this tendency in us, especially with this attraction system, to want to try that little bit more to get the girl and this involves manually refreshing combativity; ie, using kobans. I'm resisting doing this, unlike in previous events/revivals. I'll see how I get on and how it compares with my success rate prior to the introduction of the attraction system. I would, however, need to do this over several upcoming events to be able to determine whether there were changes to the drop rate since the introduction of attraction. What I DO know is that, for Epic and Legendary Days, there has been a dramatic drop in our chances of success since the changes. When trying for Fabienne my only luck was a x100 packpot in Peregrine Took (but several other KH accounts she's sitting in the 90s). I had zero success trying for Sarah Jay. The number of shards collected in each account was so low that it simply wasn't worth ever refilling to try for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eman Posted May 8, 2019 Share Posted May 8, 2019 Managed to get Keeka. Yay for me! Now it's a matter of seeing how far I'll get with Petal because, unless a wild x100 drop happens, I don't think I'll have enough time to get her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Observer_X Posted May 8, 2019 Share Posted May 8, 2019 Yesterday evening I finally got Petal. Passed on to Keeka, up to now spent over than 50 combativity, but got only 9/100 shards (in two drops). I'm still not optimistic on being able to obtain her in the remaining four days, unless a lucky 100 drops or a strong change in drops behaviour comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted May 8, 2019 Share Posted May 8, 2019 (edited) This has been a surprisingly successful event for me so far. I managed to get three x100 shard drops in different accounts, Keeka twice in EvT, as well as the real hotties, Alana and Anita, all in different accounts. I'm certainly not disappointed. I have a yearning passion for Cori (like a lot of others), but there's still time (and kobans) to get her. She remains elusive, and unloving. In the battle against the villains, I managed to get both girls in three accounts so far, so the result is so-so to date. Except for one account, because I have so many shards to collect for the one girl left in each of the other remaining accounts, I don't think I'll get her, unless I get another jackpot. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [Posted now ] Well, that's exactly what happened in my Bryan account... She was on x19 and I didn't think I had a chance. I hope this is encouragement for those who might've given up, despite the fact that there is over 3 days left. I only have two accounts left where I have to get the last girl. I do stand a real chance in one account where I can get her without the jackpot. Good luck everybody!! Edited May 9, 2019 by Zorba the Geek edit text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falco82 Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 Really an endless series of satisfactions this event, with very long pauses between a drop and the other. In my other account I received the beauty of 3 shards in 69 attacks from the spy beating my personal record of attacks without drops since I sign them and I'm looking forward to tomorrow to increase it again. How nice not to even go near taking both girls in a 12 days event... How much satisfaction the shard system, I love it more and more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triplecane Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 I'm in the same boat. I will need refills and quite a lot of them if the current trend continues. But it's only pixels so let's not stress too much :) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gacek Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 i get Pelagie now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted May 9, 2019 Share Posted May 9, 2019 (edited) According to my data (collected from 3 heroes accross all but one events, back from the start of the new system until now) the estimated drop rate might be slightly better than just the round 10%. The numbers are: # fights total: 5611 # shards drop: 650 Then drop-rate c.a. 11.584 % That translates to shard drop (any amount) every 8.632 battle. The above ratio is obviously the simplest possible drop-rate measure here... Actually I was collecting my data in the form of counting # fights until shard drop (every hero seperately). That let me put the numbers in the form of geometric distribution and so I could see how well the data fit there. So far I could conclude with these few interesting things: The drop-rate is about 11.574 % (every 8.64 battle) -- from properties of the distribution: this is just the fraction of times shards dropped every next battle. Surprising or not, shard drop on every next battle indeed looks like the (more or less) the most frequent case - especially if you plot the data (see below). Anyway, the two results match... but TBH I'm not sure if that means anything 😅 It somehow really looks like the data is distributed geometrically... This could lead to some fine conclusions on the actual drop rate, of which the most important could be that: theres no any sort of magic in the drop-rate; no conditional changes if one gets too lucky now or then; and no koban-driven switches... My longest failure streaks: 76, 51, 42, 38, 37 x2, 35 x4 ... I got 100% shard drop three times (excluded from the data as potential heavy outliers) Expected # battles until 100% on the girl vs. type of event (here: Expected <==> most likely that many ) Legendary days (1 -- 3): # 435 battles Epic days (1 -- 5): # 292 b. Classic (1 -- 6): # 251 b. Revival (1 -- 12): # 138 b. EDIT: These are simulated data (10 mil. players) given the estimated parameters (drop-rate etc.), so these are not real, just a computer simulation... Edited May 9, 2019 by Sev 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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