Event Pachinko: The Least Risky Approach

[DvDivXXX]

Hey guys,

Lately, I've been giving some thought to the Event Pachinko. Just like the single Epic Pachinko option, this is super risky (even if high rolls can happen). For Epic x1, there's nothing you can do about the RNG: you could roll it just once or twice and get a girl at a big discount, or you could roll it 20 times and get 20 epic items. But for the Event Pachinko...

IF you go for it (and you have plenty of kobans to spend), I think you can minimize the impact of its bad RNG by doing the following:

• Get both girls available from boss fights first, so that they're removed from your pachinko pool
• Then, buy all 6 event avatars from your profile, at 300 kobans each, so that they're also removed from the pool
• Only after that, start rolling the Event Pachinko

You'll still have a 77.5% chance to get no girl every time you roll (which are really bad odds), but this way, your low rolls will always be 4 items, at least. Basically, you spend 1800 kobans once to get all the avatars out of the way, so that you don't get them one at a time for 1800 kobans each (along with 3 items, but whatever).

I still think it's too risky and I don't have enough kobans I'm willing to gamble on this myself, but for those who were going to do it anyway, I hope this helps a bit. Good luck, have fun!

[GeorgeMTO]

Buying the avatars is pointless because it doesn't affect your chances of getting a girl. Affection items aren't worth spending that many kobans to get, and neither are the equipment at low levels (to me they're not worth any kobans but I accept that some other high level players think differently).

[Gremlinking]

I have had noticeably better luck playing event pachinko during revival events, especially 2 years old revival events.  Is it possible that these events have better odds, the same way that their fights give out more shards?

[GeorgeMTO]

No.

[DvDivXXX]

13 hours ago, GeorgeMTO said:

Buying the avatars is pointless because it doesn't affect your chances of getting a girl.

I know (I could have made it clearer in my post: it's still a 77.5% chance to get no girl, because the 22.5% chance to get a girl stays unchanged). This pachinko in general is a super risky gamble, as I said, but if someone decides to go for it, I feel that paying the equivalent of 1 roll to get rid of all the avatars first should remove some of the frustration from the experience. And, technically, they'll get a little bit more value out of it, even if the 4th legendary item might not be worth all that much.

[blaa]

37 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

I know (I could have made it clearer in my post: it's still a 77.5% chance to get no girl, because the 22.5% chance to get a girl stays unchanged). This pachinko in general is a super risky gamble, as I said, but if someone decides to go for it, I feel that paying the equivalent of 1 roll to get rid of all the avatars first should remove some of the frustration from the experience. And, technically, they'll get a little bit more value out of it, even if the 4th legendary item might not be worth all that much.

even if a legendary item is not worth much (for most people), it is not even a sure thing, you could also a get legendary flower, which is probably more shit

but lucky me, i dont have to think about it, cause i am a nutaku player (finally something what speaks for nutaku)

[DvDivXXX]

Sure. By "item" I mean either equipment or gift, which are the two possibilities. Anyway, I was just trying to determine the "least worse" approach to Event Pachinko. But at the end of the day, I agree that the best approach is still to ignore it completely, and only go for x10 Epic Pachinko (in the long run).

[Chthugha]

How is it the least worse if you first needlessly spend kobans on avatars in order to evade them. That just is needless spending of kobans.

[DvDivXXX]

33 minutes ago, Chthugha said:

How is it the least worse if you first needlessly spend kobans on avatars in order to evade them. That just is needless spending of kobans.

Well, given the weak odds to get a girl on each roll, I figure that anyone really trying to squeeze value out of it would have to be prepared to spend quite a lot of kobans; probably 10 spins worth at least, so it's very likely that they'll end up getting all the avatars anyway. By burning one spin worth of kobans on all the avatars beforehand, they'll get a bit more value out of their actual spins (and less disappointment, as many people get excited when they see an avatar, before realizing it's not actually the girl).

I might be wrong, and even big spenders who set their eyes on the Event Pachinko might prefer to just go for it and get the avatars along the way. I don't know.

Edited September 6, 2019 by DvDivXXX

[Chthugha]

1 hour ago, DvDivXXX said:

Well, given the weak odds to get a girl on each roll, I figure that anyone really trying to squeeze value out of it would have to be prepared to spend quite a lot of kobans; probably 10 spins worth at least, so it's very likely that they'll end up getting all the avatars anyway. By burning one spin worth of kobans on all the avatars beforehand, they'll get a bit more value out of their actual spins (and less disappointment, as many people get excited when they see an avatar, before realizing it's not actually the girl).

I might be wrong, and even big spenders who set their eyes on the Event Pachinko might prefer to just go for it and get the avatars along the way. I don't know.

You throw away an extra chance on a girl. How is that helping your odds? One does not play event pachinko for the other stuff.

[DvDivXXX]

Fair enough. I guess I just really wanted to find a way to somewhat redeem this thing, but I failed, because it's just a big gamble no matter how you approach it. 😛

[AmandaMoon]

DvDivXXX, your idea of getting all avatars first is interesting, so even though I don't think it would help me , I appreciate you sharing it.

My approach to event pachinko is:
 - get girls from bosses first
 - only play when all three girls are interesting
 - limit myself to three tries per event
 - don't cry (for too long) when I get nothing worthwhile

Not really a strategy, but as you said, it is gambling, so we need to play with caution lest we end up in the poor house.
💙

[SissyMaker]

i apologize for asking, but 22.5% drop rate a girl on event pachinko is reliable information? if that so  usualy to have all 3 girls we need ~25200 cobans (14 tries)

For me i play on event pachinko once and get a girl:)

[DvDivXXX]

15 minutes ago, Izildur said:

i apologize for asking, but 22.5% drop rate a girl on event pachinko is reliable information? if that so  usualy to have all 3 girls we need ~25200 cobans (14 tries)

I think so. I can't pinpoint to a direct official source, but I've read many posts by players who said that this information was given to them directly by the devs (probably on Discord, I imagine). The exact thing they said was apparently that it's "above 22.5%", which could technically mean 22.51% or 99% for all we know, but most likely the former.

15 minutes ago, Izildur said:

For me i play on event pachinko once and get a girl:)

You were very lucky. I've read a few posts of players mentioning they got a girl in their first try or couple of tries (there was even a thread with a conspiracy theory that it was deliberately set this way to hook players into this particular gambling machine, but it seems like bogus to me).

Edited September 7, 2019 by DvDivXXX

[GeorgeMTO]

9 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

I think so. I can't pinpoint to a direct official source, but I've read many posts by players who said that this information was given to them directly by the devs (probably on Discord, I imagine).

Patreon actually. 

[DvDivXXX]

3 minutes ago, GeorgeMTO said:

Patreon actually.  

Good to know, thank you. Was it in a regular post, or in exclusive content for donators?

[GeorgeMTO]

24 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

Good to know, thank you. Was it in a regular post, or in exclusive content for donators?

Exclusive, as I don't think they make any public posts.

And it was only done because of the massive backlash to how bad the Event Pachinko was received. Not that they've improved it in any way.

[Zorba the Geek]

In my own sampling over a five month period, I found there is a 1 chance in between 2 and 3 of getting a girl in EvP (maybe closer to the 3 end of the ratio).  And I certainly agree that it pays to get the girls attached to bosses first because they are definitely in the pool of EvP girls to collect.  I'll give a personal example of why this is an issue for me.  In the Magical Girls event I got Keeka in three of my accounts in EvP which effectively stuffed my chances of having another go.  In the accounts where I already had both girls, I got Anita in one account, Cori in two (both know-how unfortunately) and Alana in one.

I'm an advocate of EvP and have been well served by it to date.  In this respect I doubt whether I would've had the same success in regular Event Pachinko because 4 individual spins are not only more expensive (540 as compared to 450 per spin equivalent), but with even more limited chances of being successful.  Furthermore, my chances of getting the girl I want in EP are seriously diluted by all the other girls available, even with a x10 spin.  This is why I have now disciplined myself to wait til close to the end before trying Event Pachinko.

As for buying avatars and suggesting the purchase of equipment to circumvent the RNG, this is just crazy talk and it won't work.

[DvDivXXX]

16 hours ago, Zorba the Geek said:

As for buying avatars and suggesting the purchase of equipment to circumvent the RNG, this is just crazy talk and it won't work.

No offense, but this seems a little harsh, and also a bit irrational considering the rest of your post (and other posts of yours I've read here and there). Even though my idea to take the avatars out of the way for 1 spin worth of kobans before going into the proper gambling part turns out to not be as useful as I assumed (others here have convinced me), there was a rational thought process behind it. I was trying to find the best approach to minimize the impact of bad RNG for the high-risk slot machine that is Event Pachinko (and single pachinko spins in general, including the single spin Epic Pachinko you also seem to consider, if not practice).

You seem to have a much more... sentimental approach to those things, to say the least. Basically, you come across as someone who has been spending a lot of kobans on this specific slot machine, for some reason, and you have either been extremely lucky so far, or you think that you have. Your "1 chance in between 2 and 3 of getting a girl in EvP" assessment doesn't sound like solid data, and that estimation implies WAY better odds than the drop rate the devs themselves have confirmed for this feature (22.5% aka 1 in 4.44 chance to get a girl)... So I'm leaning towards your "own sampling over a five month period" (and presumably across your 6 or 7 accounts?) being a result of your own impression, feelings and memories rather than proper data gathering and analysis. Even if that's a relatively small sample size, it's still more likely than the obscene level of consistency in luck you'd need to have had to get those results (even "maybe closer to the 3 end of the ratio" would mean something around 40% vs the actual 22.5% odds).

Good for you that you enjoy the Event Pachinko, even more so if you actually are as lucky with it as you claim to be, but encouraging other players to follow in your footsteps because of that (if I understood that part correctly) is what sounds like crazy talk to me. I've known my fair share of gamblers, and if there's one thing they all have in common (besides their addiction itself, obviously), it's that they all greatly overestimate their win/lose ratio. When you compare their actual, proper stats to how well they claim to be doing at their specific game, more often than not, the contrast is huge. Please don't get me wrong: I'm not saying you're a gambler, let alone judging you for it, but in the context of this game, you deliberately favor (and advocate for) spending on a feature that is demonstrably closer to gambling than some of the alternatives the game offers.

Anyway, agree to disagree, to each their own, and all that. Good luck, have fun.

[Zorba the Geek]

1 hour ago, DvDivXXX said:

No offense, but this seems a little harsh, and also a bit irrational considering the rest of your post (and other posts of yours I've read here and there). Even though my idea to take the avatars out of the way for 1 spin worth of kobans before going into the proper gambling part turns out to not be as useful as I assumed (others here have convinced me), there was a rational thought process behind it. I was trying to find the best approach to minimize the impact of bad RNG for the high-risk slot machine that is Event Pachinko (and single pachinko spins in general, including the single spin Epic Pachinko you also seem to consider, if not practice).

You seem to have a much more... sentimental approach to those things, to say the least. Basically, you come across as someone who has been spending a lot of kobans on this specific slot machine, for some reason, and you have either been extremely lucky so far, or you think that you have. Your "1 chance in between 2 and 3 of getting a girl in EvP" assessment doesn't sound like solid data, and that estimation implies WAY better odds than the drop rate the devs themselves have confirmed for this feature (22.5% aka 1 in 4.44 chance to get a girl)... So I'm leaning towards your "own sampling over a five month period" (and presumably across your 6 or 7 accounts?) being a result of your own impression, feelings and memories rather than proper data gathering and analysis. Even if that's a relatively small sample size, it's still more likely than the obscene level of consistency in luck you'd need to have had to get those results (even "maybe closer to the 3 end of the ratio" would mean something around 40% vs the actual 22.5% odds).

Good for you that you enjoy the Event Pachinko, even more so if you actually are as lucky with it as you claim to be, but encouraging other players to follow in your footsteps because of that (if I understood that part correctly) is what sounds like crazy talk to me. I've known my fair share of gamblers, and if there's one thing they all have in common (besides their addiction itself, obviously), it's that they all greatly overestimate their win/lose ratio. When you compare their actual, proper stats to how well they claim to be doing at their specific game, more often than not, the contrast is huge. Please don't get me wrong: I'm not saying you're a gambler, let alone judging you for it, but in the context of this game, you deliberately favor (and advocate for) spending on a feature that is demonstrably closer to gambling than some of the alternatives the game offers.

Anyway, agree to disagree, to each their own, and all that. Good luck, have fun.

Yes, it was.  I'm sorry.  I was unfair and out of line. 🙂

[DHarry]

The only advantage EvP has had for me is that now sometimes, I get to have a decent chance of the legendary pachinko only event girl. Got lucky too and won Beach Samane. Seriously doubt I would have gotten that lucky through regular pachinko. 

[Floki]

I just don´t knwo what to think of pachinko anymore or rather what to do to get a girl every once in a while. At first I just spent my cobans on single rolls and I think that I actually got my first and only girl pretty quick. After not getting anything good for quite some time I switched to Event pachinko and I didn´t get any girl there so far either. I´ve done it probably 4 or 5 times now  and am quite disappointed by it.  I thought that my chance would actually be good to get 1 girl per event...

[sanjkame]

The long term solution is clean the permanent pachinko pool to remain just the event ones(Epic days obviouly is the best way to do it)...Save your luck for events, not pachinko🙂

[yoyowhan]

18 hours ago, sanjkame said:

The long term solution is clean the permanent pachinko pool to remain just the event ones(Epic days obviouly is the best way to do it)...Save your luck for events, not pachinko🙂

This means paying all you have to get all girls in epic event.Each girl requires about 2k to 4k to get.Still too costy.

[Cantrix]

First, prepare A LOT of kobans, then get the boss girls(you don't want them screwing your chances), then spin it at least 5 times (although in all my tries the girls dropped after that) spining it only once or three times is a waste of kobans( never had a girl with so few spins and i tried at least 3 events before commiting to it). Increasing your number of spins will improve your chance to land on a girl(statistically), but if the rng is stacked against you, there's not much you can do about it.

My first EvP girl dropped on my 17 spin, so make sure you want the girls there and kiss those kobans goodbye.