Silver Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 è mai possibile che avrò speso centinaia di sfere mitiche del pachinko e non prenda ragazze da una vita? oggi altre 119 e nessuna ragazza!!! credo che sia fortemente truccato!!! nella foto "prima - before" sono solo 100, ne avevo già usate 19 quando ho deciso di fare lo screenshot... Is it ever possible that I will have spent hundreds of mythical pachinko balls and not take girls from a lifetime? today another 119 and no girl!!! I think it is heavily rigged!!! in the picture "before - before" are only 100, I had already used 19 when I decided to take the screenshot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liliat Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 The drop rate for Mythic Pachinko is approximately 1%, so 119 orbs without a girl is just "slightly bad luck", very close to the average result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator bolitho76 Posted March 25, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 25, 2022 In adition to Liliat: With such a low chance it's not impossible to have 500 to 1000 trys without a girl. With 99 faults against 1 true it's a very high variance and have in mind: at every time you spend an Orb you have the chance of 99 to 1 to get the girl and because this chance never change you will have, if you generate a long enough resultline, in 1% of all results a drop, but that doesn't mean that you will get a girl after spending 100 Orbs. It only say: After a statistically relevant amount of trys you will have in ca. 1% of all cases a drop and to have a statistically relevant amount of cases we need the whole playerbase and her monthly gaining in Mythic x1 Orbs to create such a mass of results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator holymolly Posted March 25, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, Silver said: è mai possibile che avrò speso centinaia di sfere mitiche del pachinko e non prenda ragazze da una vita? oggi altre 119 e nessuna ragazza!!! credo che sia fortemente truccato!!! nella foto "prima - before" sono solo 100, ne avevo già usate 19 quando ho deciso di fare lo screenshot... Is it ever possible that I will have spent hundreds of mythical pachinko balls and not take girls from a lifetime? today another 119 and no girl!!! I think it is heavily rigged!!! in the picture "before - before" are only 100, I had already used 19 when I decided to take the screenshot... It´s even possible to go with more than that .. I´m currently on a run of 344 orbs without a girl myself Rng is a bitch sometimes you get like 3 girls within 100 orbs sometimes you go for hundreds of orbs without a drop .. I´ve even hear of one fellow community member with worse rng then mine.. she spent close to 1000 MyP orbs without a drop (also @Silver :Se vuoi postare in italiano, sentiti libero di farlo nel sub-forum italiano. Gli altri mod non potranno aiutarti, ma io sì. E un'altra cosa: non stai cercando un club, no? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liliat Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 To give an idea: - Chances of having 0 girl with 119 Orbs: 30.24% <<< Will happen often. - Chances of having 0 girl with 344 Orbs: 3.15% <<< Will happen from time to time - Chances of having 0 girl with 1000 Orbs: 0.004% <<< There you can start thinking you're cursed (Although with tens thousands of players in the game playing hundreds of orbs every year, it will happen. Still, very bad luck there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator bolitho76 Posted March 25, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 25, 2022 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Liliat said: hundreds of orbs every year, it will happen A little bit of calculation to the amount of Mythic Orbs in game: Most players have upgraded their PoPs to lvl 9 or 10 so they gain in average every day 9 MyPx1 (3x starting PoP per day, ca. 1/3 chance to get a MyP). Also ca. 270 MyPx1 from PoPs per month in average. From PoV (18 free/26 with payed path), Season (8/21) and PoA (1/2) you will gain some Orbs more and in Cumback Contest and while Myhtic Day last you can earn some more. An active player will gain between 350 and 400 MyPx1 Orbs every month, 4200 to 4800 in a year. With 20.000 player in the game you can expect ca. 80.000.000 Orbs per year and with a chance of 0,004% there is not such a low amount of players who will see that 1000 trys without a drop will come true. Edited March 25, 2022 by bolitho76 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
430i Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, bolitho76 said: ca. 1/3 chance to get a MyP This is incorrect. Purposefully or not only the first 2 PoP have a MyP probability of 30%. The last one - Kinks on Air has a MyP probability of 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator bolitho76 Posted March 25, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 25, 2022 Oh had I oversaw a changing? When did they changed the droprate at the 3rd pPoP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liliat Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 (edited) il y a une heure, bolitho76 a dit : A little bit of calculation to the amount of Mythic Orbs in game: Most players have upgraded their PoPs to lvl 9 or 10 so they gain in average every day 9 MyPx1 (3x starting PoP per day, ca. 1/3 chance to get a MyP). Also ca. 270 MyPx1 from PoPs per month in average I think there's a mistake here (Beside the drop rate issue mentioned by 430i). Assuming a 30% drop rate, that's 0.9 Orb per day per PoP, which is 0.9x3x30 = 81 Orbs per month (vs 270). Even lower than that if one of the T PPoP only has 10% drop rate (27 + 27 + 9 = 63 Orbs per month on average) I estimate ~100 Orbs per month from all sources, so 63 from T PPoP is closer (270 is way overestimated). Edit: nah, I'm wrong. It's 3 orbs per drop So 189 per month. Feels a lot though. Edit2: I'm also incorrectly remembering the "100 orbs per month". My estimates are actually based on 300+ MPx1 per month. I should know not to trust myself when it comes to memory Edit3: ... 😭 Edited March 25, 2022 by Liliat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lepidocter Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 Ciao, non è truccato per nulla, se consideri che a me ha droppato 4 ragazze nel corso del Legendary Contests con 80 orbs. Se ti sembra sopra media, è che Gennaio/Febbraio non ho droppato *NIENTE* con qualcosa come 500 orbs. E' proprio una slot machine, alcuni perdono tutto e alcuni vincono il Jackpot. Hello, is not rigged at all, considering I've dropped 4 girls last LC with 80 orbs. If that sound above average, I didn't dropped *anything* January/February spending around 500 orbs. It's really a slot machine, some lose everything some others hit the Jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator bolitho76 Posted March 25, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Liliat said: Assuming a 30% drop rate, that's 0.9 Orb per day per PoP, which is 0.9x3x30 = 81 Orbs per month (vs 270). Even lower than that if one of the TPoP only has 10% drop rate (27 + 27 + 9 = 63 Orbs per month on average) I'm not 100% sure, but the data we collect at the start of PoPs show, if I remember it well, that the chance without shards avalaible was even between the three potential rewards. So 1/3 without shards, with shards 10/30/30/30. In a phase of three month you get 270x one PoP. At level 9 you need 12 drops to gain the girl so 258 results which are even between MyPx1, GPx10 and Tickets. In average 86x 3xMyPx1: 258. 10 minutes ago, Liliat said: 63 from TPoP From TPoP? 😉 I wish I had this tPoP. Only my pPoPs gave me MyPs. 😁 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liliat Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 il y a 22 minutes, bolitho76 a dit : From TPoP? 😉 I wish I had this tPoP. Only my pPoPs gave me MyPs. 😁 ... 3 mistakes in one post trying to just fix one mistake 😭 (And not even succeeding at that ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Posted March 25, 2022 Author Share Posted March 25, 2022 1 ora fa, lepidocter ha scritto: Ciao, non è truccato per nulla, se consideri che a me ha droppato 4 ragazze nel corso del Legendary Contests con 80 orbs. Se ti sembra sopra media, è che Gennaio/Febbraio non ho droppato *NIENTE* con qualcosa come 500 orbs. E' proprio una slot machine, alcuni perdono tutto e alcuni vincono il Jackpot. Hello, is not rigged at all, considering I've dropped 4 girls last LC with 80 orbs. If that sound above average, I didn't dropped *anything* January/February spending around 500 orbs. It's really a slot machine, some lose everything some others hit the Jackpot. questo è stato solo oggi... qualche settimana fa (o il mese scorso, non ricordo di preciso) ne ho usate altre 150 circa senza alcun drop e così via nei mesi precedenti... sono mesi che non pesco una ragazza dal pachinko, questa volta ho semplicemente cercato di fare lo screenshot ed aprire una discussione.... sulla questione delle slot machine, è vero, ma è anche vero che per le slot e vlt c'è una garanzia di vincita ogni tot giocate (per esempio su 1milione di giocate DEVE uscire per forza il jackpot almeno una volta) che qui non esiste, dato che, per ogni giocata, si resetta il conteggio precedente. ed è questo che non va bene ed è inaccettabile e che mi fa dubitare del truccaggio del pachinko, tanto più che, essendo che ci si spendono soldi, veri o virtuali, DEVE esserci una garanzia di successo ogni tot giocate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator FinderKeeper Posted March 25, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 25, 2022 I guess I'll just move this to Italian Enclave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
430i Posted March 25, 2022 Share Posted March 25, 2022 2 hours ago, bolitho76 said: Oh had I oversaw a changing? When did they changed the droprate at the 3rd pPoP? At the latest in November (with the introduction of the Awakenings), but looking visually at my data (too lazy to plot it) most likely it was changed already in September. I only unlocked the 3rd PoP in August, so I dont have that much data before September, so it might have been even earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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