[ 03-Jun-22 ] Mythic Days - Discussion

[holymolly]

Oh Right! I haven´t shared my abymal drop either so far ( well not as bad as yours buddy @DvDivXXX but still up there )

I initally went for a "free" mythic since I used the blessings to climb pantheon. I ended up at 662 "free-ish" combativity (had to invest a booster for that) but little did I know that my 662 fights where just enough for 70 shards.. long story short: I needed 872 fights in total to get mythic agate ( by far the worst drop rates for a mythic so far for me).
So in the end my "free mythic" cost me 3k ish plus 5boosters..

 

On nutaku it went a lot better..well still terrible..I saved 426 fights on nutaku (once again I used pantheon to get more combativity) those fights where enough for 54 shards ..spent kobans on another 369 fights to finish the girl .. 795 fights.. 775 nubans(x6  for hh) and 4 boosters..

 

well..I wouldn´t have complained if I spent this much on mythic norou ( or hopefully soon mythic bianca ) but yeah.. kind of underwelming ngl..
@JustVisitingReborn Norou was just far superior that´s why ...she was the most popular girl against all odds ..KK should listen to me again and give as a (actually good) mythic Tohsaka parody

[Gartalgar]

After having a great drop rate with Abraël, I knew it couldn't be as good this time. But I didn't expect it to be this bad, even if I've had worse.

I tried to do the same as with abraël and finish with nat regen after the 4th SP but I started later and didn't have as good a drop rate so it ended costing me more than I saved. Next time, I'll do the maths before choosing what to do.

So :
 - drop rate 5,44% for 56 drops in 1'030 manual fights (with 4 SP)
 - 11'340 kobans, including the cost of the 4 SP (even if I got one from a paid PoV)
 - 90+ orbs along the way

And my luck is bad too on the current event, I've only had one Lupa drop on 4 champion wins (and the fifth coming up is the final one ...).

Edited June 6, 2022 by Gartalgar
Corrected SP source

[JustVisitingReborn]

38 minutes ago, Gartalgar said:

- 11'340 kobans, including the cost of the 4 SP (even I got at least one from a cumback contest)

No you didn't. CbC give out AM boosters not SP You may have got one from the PoV if you bought the paid path.

It's also worthwhile to use an extra SP for the final drops, but it is relatively marginal.

[F-L-K]

780 purchased (1404 ) + 245 free = total of 1025

 

so 4.87% drop rate

Edited June 6, 2022 by F-L-K

[Gartalgar]

il y a 37 minutes, JustVisitingReborn a dit :

No you didn't. CbC give out AM boosters not SP You may have got one from the PoV if you bought the paid path.

It's also worthwhile to use an extra SP for the final drops, but it is relatively marginal.

Yes, my bad, it was from the PoV paid path, you're right.

Using an SP for the last shards would have saved me two 20-fights refills (432 kobans), as an SP costs the same as a 50-fights refill.

[Liliat]

il y a 4 minutes, Gartalgar a dit :

Using an SP for the last shards would have saved me two 20-fights refills (432 kobans), as an SP costs the same as a 50-fights refill.

That only makes sense if you can read the future and know in advance that you're going to be lucky with the final drop rates (or, in that case - read the past, which admittedly is a lot easier )

The average cost of 1 Shard in MD is 154 Kobans (7% drop rate, 14.28 combativity). With a cost of 540 Kobans, the SP booster pays for itself if you can get at least 4 shards from it (3.5 on average).

With 4 booster, you should get to 88/100, which means the 5th boosters will give you 6 shards = 954 Kobans. It saves 384 Kobans on average.

[Incubys]

27 minutes ago, Gartalgar said:

Using an SP for the last shards would have saved me two 20-fights refills (432 kobans), as an SP costs the same as a 50-fights refill.

 

17 minutes ago, Liliat said:

That only makes sense if you can read the future and know in advance that you're going to be lucky with the final drop rates (or, in that case - read the past, which admittedly is a lot easier )

The average cost of 1 Shard in MD is 154 Kobans (7% drop rate, 14.28 combativity). With a cost of 540 Kobans, the SP booster pays for itself if you can get at least 4 shards from it (3.5 on average).

With 4 booster, you should get to 88/100, which means the 5th boosters will give you 6 shards = 954 Kobans. It saves 384 Kobans on average.

For me, the last 6 drops (using SL) took 90 fights, at a respectable 6.67% rate, which cost me 972 in refills. Without the extra SL and assuming the same drop rate (big assumption I know) I'd have wasted (972-540) 432 kobans. Yes hindsight can be a bitch if you spend 540 on the extra SL and you get the last shards quickly, but the odds are that you won't (not every time at least).

[JustVisitingReborn]

23 minutes ago, Liliat said:

With 4 booster, you should get to 88/100, which means the 5th boosters will give you 6 shards = 954 Kobans. It saves 384 Kobans on average.

You also have the additional SPs to carry over into whichever event you play next. Brutal though it is, I carried last month's MR SP to this month's MD and now have 10/11 left on a booster, which I'll carry over to this month's MR. Anything to pinch a few Koban while I'm running myself raw to pick-up those last few Mythics on the MR!

Edited June 6, 2022 by JustVisitingReborn

[Gartalgar]

I wrote this after the fact, so I can say exactly what it cost/saved me.

For Abraël, I didn't have to spend the SP thanks to natural regen, so I saved 540 Kobans.

This time, I had to refill once for 50 and twice for 20, so it cost me 432 kobans more than the SP would have. I had less time that for Abraël so the risk of this choice not saving anything was higher. I could have foreseen it, had I done a bit of maths.

 

Thanks for the numbers, Liliat, I'll try to keep them in mind for next time.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Gartalgar

[JustVisitingReborn]

2 minutes ago, Incubys said:

Yes hindsight can be a bitch if you spend 540 on the extra SL and you get the last shards quickly, but the odds are that you won't (not every time at least).

It makes no difference. @Liliat's assessment is based on the mathematical averages. On average, you will save 384 Koban every time you deploy this strategy. Sometime, the reality is that you'll save less, other times more, but on average it'll be 384.

[Incubys]

2 minutes ago, JustVisitingReborn said:

It makes no difference. @Liliat's assessment is based on the mathematical averages. On average, you will save 384 Koban every time you deploy this strategy. Sometime, the reality is that you'll save less, other times more, but on average it'll be 384.

Not sure what your point is here. I was merely stating that you may be annoyed after the event if you've spent 540 kobans on an SL and got the needed shards for less, but that the odds of saving kobans by not buying the fifth SL is too small to risk it.

[Gartalgar]

You have to take into account the free fights remaining (from regen, daily goals or other sources) to check what you can really save.

For Abraël, I got the first 88 shards on the first day, so I had the rest of the time to get the remaining shards without doing any refill (which took 131 fights).

For Agate, getting 8 shards took 167 fights ... (got 2 from early drops when I didn't pay attention and SP ran out plus 2 more at the end of the last 50-fights refill before trying to switch to free fights only).

[JustVisitingReborn]

17 minutes ago, Incubys said:

Not sure what your point is here. I was merely stating that you may be annoyed after the event if you've spent 540 kobans on an SL and got the needed shards for less, but that the odds of saving kobans by not buying the fifth SL is too small to risk it.

Sometimes I place a bet on a Roulette table with a 00 and win. Doesn't mean that it was more likely to win than the same bet on a single 0 wheel.

My point was that - exasperation with individual results aside - players collectively are better off in the long run using the additional SP. The cost of the additional SP is smaller than the average saving from using it. And that does not include the effectively 'free' benefit of using the rest of the SP on another event.

Edited June 6, 2022 by JustVisitingReborn

[JustVisitingReborn]

10 minutes ago, Gartalgar said:

You have to take into account the free fights remaining (from regen, daily goals or other sources) to check what you can really save.

You don't. If you're playing everything on the first day you're already using a sub-optimal strategy. Why:

i) You don't know how your free regens will play out until after you've played them. You could easily end up buying too much on the first day and having free regens spare at the end.

ii) By waiting, you retain the possibility of a symbiotic DC that may allow you to win some Kobans for activities you were already going to be engaged in.

iii) By waiting, you allow the shard pool to swell to the point where timing is irrelevant.

Unless there's some RL consideration that would stop you waiting until the 3rd day to pick her up - and that simply means RL has forced you into a non-optimal decision - you're best waiting till day 3 and maximising your gains from your regens before buying Combativity.

[Liliat]

In most cases, for optimal results, you want to use refills on the last day (Ideally in the last couple of hours). There are a few occasions when you want to spend a bit earlier:

- Shards are depleting quickly. If shards only last for 2 minutes each time, then you need to start earlier, as you won't have enough time to play 700 fights in 2 minutes 2 hours before the end of the event.

- There is a Defeat Villains contest on Day 1 or Day 2. In that case, the extra +120/+300 Kobans, or +160k XP/AM Booster, can offset the sub-optimal spending of combativity refills

- Real life

But in any other situation, as JVR mentioned, you want to spend all your free combativity first, and then only start using refills as late as possible. In that case, there is no risk of "over spending". And even in the case of a contest on Day 1 or Day 2, you want to spend as much as necessary to reach Top 1/Top 4, and as little as possible to make sure you won't waste free combativity on the last day(s). Spending 400-500 fights on the first days is really safe. However, going for an expensive first place on Day 1 and getting the girl will give you 300 Kobans, but you'll waste 2 days of natural regen, which is worth a thousand kobans. All in all, not really a good trade. (Although, during MD, the overlap with CE means you won't waste the additional combativity; so it's not all that bad).

[Ravi-Sama]

I'm looking back upon my mythic day history.

I didn't know what I was doing when I got Undercover Valentina.  It took 1200 CP, and I ended up spending 13.8k kobans, b/c I only bought 2 SP boosters.  My drop rate was still 6.5%, from 78 drops.

Art by Sakimichan.

I learned, and bought 5 SP instead, for Succubus Abraël, but in my haste, using 50 CP at a time, I only used 4 of them.  It took 905 CP, and I spent 11.8k kobans.  Drop rate was 6.3%, from 57 drops.

Art by B.bor.

I was patient w/ Bright Agate.  I did single fights, took note of each drop, and carefully kept track of my 5 SP.  It took 806 CP (608 CP stored, 140 CP bought, 58 CP free regen).  Spent 4.2k kobans, or 9.2k if you count the 5k kobans spent in the Pantheon, to save 601 CP.  Drop rate was 6.2%, from 50 drops.

Art by Kittew.

Overall, in my acquisition of 3 mythic girls, I used 2911 CP, got 185 drops, my drop rate was 6.36%, and I spent 34.9k kobans.  I'm learning from past mistakes managing resources.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Ravi-Sama

[Incubys]

28 minutes ago, JustVisitingReborn said:

Sometimes I place a bet on a Roulette table with a 00 and win. Doesn't mean that it was more likely to win than the same bet on a single 0 wheel.

My point was that - exasperation with individual results aside - players collectively are better off in the long run using the additional SP. The cost of the additional SP is smaller than the average saving from using it. And that does not include the effectively 'free' benefit of using the rest of the SP on another event.

Which is exactly the same point I made, so again, I do not see the reason why you questioned it ?

[DvDivXXX]

I'm with JVR all the way on the 5th Sandalwood. One crucial point I'd like to add on that is that the biggest power of this booster is to mitigate bad luck. I had to reach 1000 fights to reach 50 drops, who knows how many more fights I would have needed to reach 56 drops instead? Better safe than sorry. Especially since my bad run now extends to CE and the remainder of the 5th SP took dozens of fights to get rid of. ^^

EDIT: And yeah, taking frustration into account, I'd much rather be "frustrated" that the final drops come quick and, in retrospect, the 5th SP was "unnecessary" than be frustrated I took a chance on getting 12 freaking drops instead of 6 and I didn't get lucky. It doesn't even compare. Even more so when you already had a bad run.

EDIT 2: JvR and Incub, shake on it and be merry, folks. You seem to have had a bit of a misunderstanding in the midst of all these number-crunching vs emotional value conversation, nothing personal. ❤️ 

Edited June 6, 2022 by DvDivXXX

[JustVisitingReborn]

4 minutes ago, Incubys said:

Which is exactly the same point I made, so again, I do not see the reason why you questioned it ?

If that was the point you were making then I misinterpreted your post

[Ravi-Sama]

31 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

I had to reach 1000 fights to reach 50 drops, who knows how many more fights I would have needed to reach 56 drops instead? Better safe than sorry.

12 more drops, assuming you only used 4 SP, and you maintained your crappy drop rate of 5%, would've taken ~240 CP, and cost 2592 kobans.

12 drops / 5% = 240 CP 
240 CP / 20 CP = 12 refills
12 refills * 216 kobans = 2592 kobans

6 drops w/ a 5th SP booster would've taken ~120 CP, w/ a 5% crappy drop rate, costing 1296 kobans, plus 540 kobans for the 1 SP, which is 1836 kobans total.

6 drops / 5% = 120 CP
120 CP / 20 CP = 6 refills
6 refills * 216 kobans = 1296 kobans
1296 kobans + 540 kobans = 1836 kobans

You saved an estimated 756 kobans (assuming a 5% crappy drop rate), b/c you used a 5th SP booster.

2592 kobans - 1836 kobans = 756 kobans

5th SP booster = Good

[Gartalgar]

Thanks for your advices about when to go for the Mythic, @Liliat, @JustVisitingReborn, @Incubys, @Ravi-Sama and @DvDivXXX.

I'll try it your way next way time, adjusting to my real life parameters.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Gartalgar

[Incubys]

9 hours ago, JustVisitingReborn said:

If that was the point you were making then I misinterpreted your post

Maybe I could have made my support for the 5th Sl clearer (not sure how). For the record, I'm in the "5th SL is good" camp. I've only kept records for 3 of my Mythics so far, the last 6 drops for each have been 90 / 96 / 90 fights, so I've "saved" kobans every time with the 5th SL. And I will be annoyed if I "waste" kobans on a 5th but I will appreciate that in the long run I'll have saved more then I've lost.

[Pelinor]

I decided at the last minute to go for Bright Agate. Spent 9418 kobans (40 combats went with zero rewards thanks to the combat glitch where the screen freezes and the only way out is a screen refresh). Anyway, I got the girl and that's when I realized I only had gems to get her up to level 500. Still, even with the glitch and my "less than optimal planning" I think I did better than expected (by the averages).

[DvDivXXX]

2 hours ago, Pelinor said:

Spent 9418 kobans

2 hours ago, Pelinor said:

I think I did better than expected (by the averages).

It's hard to tell without knowing how those kobans were spent, and more importantly your drop rate. How many fights in total? How many Sandals did you use (and do you count their cost in your 9.4k)?

 

[Pelinor]

9 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

How many Sandals did you use (and do you count their cost in your 9.4k)?

I used 4 of the Sandlewoods (and 9 of 11 on a 5th). I did not count the cost of the Sandlewoods as I have been collecting them since the last Mythic Revival. As for combats, no I don't look at or keep track of them anymore since the glitch started occurring. Doing so would just add to my annoyance and subtract from the fun of the hunt for me.