mythic revival [ July 10th, 2023 ] MDR #24 - Bunna ​⚪​

[DvDivXXX]

Thanks, @bolitho76. I had completely skipped that Q&A, although it rings a bell now (I typically listened to the audio for those with voice chat, but that one was chat only and I never thought of checking it after the fact, or read a summary either).

Well, from what I understand of these quotes, it seems that Sandman confirmed the same thing I'm cautiously optimistic about: that event girl(s) do have a fixed drop rate regardless of how many other items there are in the pool. So in other words, the "event girl shard" item has a fixed weight, and it's the other (lesser) items that see their respective weights lowered when more items are added. Right?

[Horsting]

46 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

MPx1 orbs during MD/R, or the affection items during LD/R. And we currently have all three of these active:

Just to be fair, the MPx1 orb is always combined with MD/MDR, the affection item always with LD, and the affection item also only drops on the LD event villains, so currently not on the MDR villain. But yeah, if e.g. the MPx1 orb drops reduce the LD girl shard drops, then this would probably be a reason to farm the LD shards after MDR ended. Well, at least if one sees not much value in gems and boosters from MPx1 orbs.

31 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

I took the relevant posts from Discord here together

These messages look extremely vague and unclear to me. It does not mention any non-shard drops at all. What could be probably derived from the last is: If two event girls drop from the same villain, they share their drop chance. This however is fair IMO, otherwise you could get e.g. a mythic + legendary girl for half price if they coincidentally drop on the same villain. But that post also does not rule out common villain girls, which I think has been ruled out by recorded data already.

[DvDivXXX]

36 minutes ago, Horsting said:

Well, at least if one sees not much value in gems and boosters from MPx1 orbs.

They have some value, all of these items have a non-negligible value except for champion tickets and pocket change in Ymens. But we're talking about a world in which the trade-off for getting more of these whatever to decent side rewards would effectively be to get fewer MD or LD girl shards, or having to spend a bunch of extra kobans to complete MD or LD, depending on how you look at it.

MD or LD shards, hell any event girl shards honestly, have more value than any of these side rewards. Kobans definitely have more value too. SM keys are so random and the range of valuable rewards within the SM grid game is so wide, it's hard to say as definitely, but let's just say there's a reason I never use the option to outright burn 480 kobans to get 10 SM keys. If I'm spending hundreds of kobans to grab a handful of SM keys, MPx1 orbs and legendary panties instead of event girl shards, I'm getting ripped off.

But again, based on everything I mentioned in my long post earlier and also on what Sandman said in that Q&A Bolitho quoted, I don't think that's the case. Or if it's the case, it's not working as intended. And would be worth bringing to Sandman's attention as a technical issue, even.

Which brings me back to Zoo's original bombshell:  

4 hours ago, zoopokemon said:

This is correct since they don't use a fixed drop rate system (with ymen being the only thing to vary), instead they use a weight system. So adding more stuff to the drop pool would slightly decrease the drop rate. By how much exactly would be almost impossible to figure out.

Is there a particular reason that a weighted system would be incompatible with one of the items (event girl shards) having a fixed weight (or being otherwise made an exception to the weighted system; you certainly know more about the technical possibilities than I do)? Maybe I'm just not clear enough on how a weighted system for random drops works in general, or for a Kinkoid game in particular, but I don't get how you go from just knowing that this is the type of system in place to concluding no item in the drop pool can have a fixed drop rate.

Since you typically base your statements on hard data and/or a solid theory, I expect there's either something inevitable to it structurally that I'm missing, or you know enough about how this has been implemented in HH specifically (either through checking yourself or maybe talking with Sandman) to be pretty sure event girl shards don't have a fixed drop rate (or a fixed weight in the weighted system; in my mind it's the same result but again I might be missing something about such a system). That's what frightens me a bit.

[Horsting]

1 hour ago, DvDivXXX said:

MD or LD shards, hell any event girl shards honestly, have more value than any of these side rewards. Kobans definitely have more value too.

It depends a bit: If you otherwise spend 90 kobans to get a cordy to win the league, while without you would have become only 4th, i.e. a difference of 2500 kobans (in D3, just as example where the cordy definitely makes sense), then you can definitely weight the MPx1 orbs in kobans against event girl shards. However, very situational, not really possible to rate this on a general basis.

But for SM keys it can be weighted easier/better in general: The SM grid is not random but fixed. At the current LD topic I roughly calculated the value of SM key drops, assuming the worst case, that one unlocks all 30 chests of a grid, which gives you 6 CP and 26 coins. For LD girls this means 6.5 shards, or in general 32 CP when buying CP from coins, which can be translated back to any event girl shards along with the other drops 🤪.

1 hour ago, DvDivXXX said:

Maybe I'm just not clear enough on how a weighted system for random drops works in general

Also Sandman mixes "weighted" and "fixed" in his post: "it is a weighted system, but the weight is fixed". This alone indeed sounds like fixed drop rates. The second part, that the chance is based on the "amount of girls in the pool", actually sounds like it refers to regular villain T1 girls only, where of course the drop chance is for any of the 3 girls (or 2 later), and not for each of them. Event girls are in a different pool, and we know that regular villain girls do not affect event girl drop chances.

However, I think we will know better when more people share their MDR and LD drop rates. I currently cannot continue with Bunna as I was not well preparing well with 5 SPs and the last few marked restocks didn't give any 😭. Probably I need to farm LD girl shards first (I still have T1 girls on both of them, so no SP needed/reasonable) to reach the SP reward from SER at 1040 Xtals.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Horsting

[mdnoria]

il y a 46 minutes, Horsting a dit :

I was not well preparing well with 5 SPs and the last few marked restocks didn't give any 😭

The adding of multiple other mythic boosters drastically reduced the chance to get SP (or any other mythic booster).

I usually got back to 10 stashed SP after a MD(R) in 3 days of natural market refresh but this time I started Bunna with only 9 SP in stock so I only saw 4 in the market in 7~8 days.

I'm already back at 9 this time for the end of month MDR so a bit luckier than after Ysette.

Edited July 11, 2023 by mdnoria

[zoopokemon]

1 hour ago, DvDivXXX said:

Is there a particular reason that a weighted system would be incompatible with one of the items (event girl shards) having a fixed weight (or being otherwise made an exception to the weighted system; you certainly know more about the technical possibilities than I do)? Maybe I'm just not clear enough on how a weighted system for random drops works in general, or for a Kinkoid game in particular, but I don't get how you go from just knowing that this is the type of system in place to concluding no item in the drop pool can have a fixed drop rate.

 

If the weights are fixed, then the drop rate is not. If the drop rates are fixed the weights would have to change for each possible pool.

From all the data shared it support that yes adding more stuff to the drop pool lowers the drop rate of the rest of the items. This is consistent with a system where every reward has a fixed weight, instead of one where the drop rates are fixed except for a reward like ymen.

[Horsting]

It still somehow sounds like only event girl drops might affect other even girl drop rates.

But the following system could be right:

• Event drops + Ymen share a pool with a fixed shared drop rate of e.g. 90%.
• Tickets and gems would then each have a fixed drop rate of 5% (ignoring common villain tier girl drops, usually cleared anyway).
• As an example for a weighted system: Ymen could be weighed with 16 points, an event 1 drop with 2 points and another event 2 drop with 1 point.
• If there is no event, the Ymen drop rate is 90%.
• If there is only event 1, its drop rate is 2/18*90%=10% and Ymen drop with the remaining 80%.
• If there is only event 2, its drop rate is 1/17*90%=5.3% and Ymen drop with the remaining 84.7%.
• If both events drop concurrently on the same villain, the event 1 drop rate is 2/19*90%=9.47%, the event 2 drop rate is 1/19*90%=4.74% and Ymen drop with the remaining 75.79%.

So in case of concurrent events, their drop chances are reduced only slightly, due to their low rating compared to Ymen, which matches the slightly reduced MDR shard drop rates reported so far. My personal MDR shards drop rate btw currently is 6.03%, i.e. also slightly below the expected 6.5% (?) rate.

I am currently too lazy to adjust the weights/points to match the known MD/R and SM drop rates 😄. Also I am not sure how to add the regular villain girls to this system, as they reduce the Ymen drop chance only but have no effect on any other drop rate. A complicated solution would be an adjusted pool drop rate, if the villain tier has not been cleared yet, along with an adjusted Ymen weight, to compensate/keep the event drop rates unchanged.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Horsting

[DvDivXXX]

2 hours ago, zoopokemon said:

If the weights are fixed, then the drop rate is not. If the drop rates are fixed the weights would have to change for each possible pool.

Thank you! I think I understand why this was clear to you, now. It's either a system with weights, or a system with drop rates, by default. So just knowing they're using weights almost guarantees that no drop rate can stay truly fixed, unless... they have an adjusted set of weights for every reward combination (and they actually switch from one to another on time every time) which even I find hilariously unlikely as I'm typing this. ^^

The exchange you quoted between Numbers and Sandman is really the smoking gun that seals the deal, and it was missing from Bolitho's selection earlier on. Thanks for this too.

So... I guess we can only pray that the impact isn't too big. Like, for instance, right now as I'm fighting Bremen for LD shards with a pool of 7 items... I just hope the shard drop rate isn't down to like 8% or worse, but more like 9.sth% instead of a nice and clean 10%... Then again, with this new pair of glasses on, I'm now wondering if it even was actually 10% for LD to begin with, since they always add the legendary gifts in the pool and this has to have an impact on its own... Just like MD/R might never actually reach the 7% because of the MPx1s that always disturb the balance with their extra weight? Maybe that's why we always seem to lean closer to 6.5% even though it's supposed to be 7%? I'm... cautiously optimistic that since you've mentioned a slight decrease and that how much would be almost impossible to figure out, the impact isn't too detrimental.

Well, I'm glad I'm aware of this now, at least. Thanks again.

Although I'll have to set these glasses aside for now, as I'm seeing the word "OBEY!" all over the place and that's a bit tiring. ^^

Anyhow, since the current LD is paired with SM for all its duration, keys can't be dodged, and affection items are always there anyway, so the only thing that could be dodged would be MPx1s by waiting until after the MDR ends to make refills for LD. But since the drop rate is already a bit reduced anyway, maybe I might as well get a few MPx1s too at this point.

[zoopokemon]

20 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

Just like MD/R might never actually reach the 7% because of the MPx1s that always disturb the balance with their extra weight?

The 7% was based on data collected with the MPx1 in the drop pool, so that wouldn't affect the drop rate from our understanding. I'm not sure how 10% was arrived at for LD, if it was based on data or also assumed based on the drop rate for CE. The real big question is what affect did gems have when they got added to drop pools, either 1) It slightly decreased the drop rate for everything 2) KK rebalanced the weights to keep the drop rates about the same. I can go over my data again, but the last time I posted about my drop rates it was pointed out that my shard drop rates where lower than expected over quite a large sample size, I forget where that was mentioned.

[Shirow]

I know i am late to this party and all that, but there is too much to be focused already to get to mythic days revival.
I speak for myself, but I think Mythic days should 1 time a month, since some of us save kobans for other things, and then, "o fuck, i just used for that other thing"

I was gonna joke about "oh look. that girl who sends me sms saying its no my harem, but i've never seen her before" XD
but then the joke died on me cause i was thinking too much, and notice, since april i guess, i was only focused on Dragon Fire Boobs girl (becasue i was not working on those days.), after that, i dont even have time for these mythic days, since I am sure of us are working and its impossible to go check on phone when shards are available.
Mythic days might be cool for some of you. Good for you all. 
Personally, and i don't want to take any importance of it to other people, but it's useless if you can't really dedicate time for it, which is what is need.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Shirow

[Horsting]

Got her with 763 CP, i.e. even slightly above the expected drop rate:

• Shard drops: 50, 6.55%
• Gems: 57, 7.47%
• SM keys: 58, 7.60%
• MPx1 orbs: 59, 7.73%
• Tickets: 31, 4.06%
• Ymen: 508, 66.6%

[Ravi-Sama]

15 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

also a bit surprised that you guys (Zoo, Bolitho, Ravi) don't seem to be alarmed about it (then again you seem to have known or suspected this for awhile, so that part makes sense, actually).

Nah, I never suspected this.  I chalked up my lower drop rate w/ Druiada to just bad luck, and it wasn't even that bad, for me to make a fuss about it.  It was 5.71% vs. my lowest w/ Sake at 5.55%.  It still could just be bad luck.  I'm not convinced yet, that the SM negatively affects the shards drops from girls in an LD or MD/R.

H Venus (11/3/2022):

• 50 shard drops / 790 CP = 6.33% shard drop rate.  
• 75 keys / 790 CP = 9.49% key drop rate.

D Titania (4/23/2023): 

• 31 shard drops / 544 CP = 5.7% shard drop rate. 
• 37 keys / 544 CP = 6.8% key drop rate.

Combined MD/R + SM Drop Rates:

• 81 shard drops / 1,334 CP = 6.07% shard drop rate.
• 112 keys / 1,334 CP = 8.39% key drop rate.

That ~6% combined MD drop rate is close to the avg 6.5%, and an ~8.4% key drop rate is close to the 7.9% observed by 12 players that November '22.

Here's some older SM Key drop rate data from last November, but it's from 12 players w/ ~9.3k CP.  Personally had a 6.8% key drop rate from D Titania's MDR.  These other past results overlapped Heavenly Venus' MD.  My drop rate for her was 6.33% = 50 drops / 790 CP.  Which is pretty damn close to the 6.5% avg, along w/ a 9.49% key drop rate.  I don't think they affected one another.

On 11/6/2022 at 1:47 PM, Ravi-Sama said:

This is the data we've collected on the key drop rates from villains:

• 733 keys
• 9279 CP
• 7.9% key drop rate

I figure I was lucky w/ my ~9.5% key drop rate, since the avg from ~9.3k CP was closer to 7.9%.  That's like 1 key dropping from every ~12.6 CP.  I'll probably think of it as an 8% drop rate in the future, assuming I'll get ~64 keys from 800 CP during an MD.

[madahmed]

Bunna is my 19th M6 and 3rd Submissive.

i had 11 shards for her from previous events so i got the 12th shard than started using SPs.

To get her i used :

762 CP ( 230 free from Regen Pantheon SM and DR + 567 refills) - 7 remained

kobans : 4 SP = 360 + refills = 981 kobans = 1341 kobans (8046 K on main server)

drop rate ; 5.90 %

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by madahmed
mistake in drop rate

[Ravi-Sama]

On 7/11/2023 at 4:00 PM, zoopokemon said:

I'm not sure how 10% was arrived at for LD, if it was based on data or also assumed based on the drop rate for CE.

Here's some of my recent LD drop data.  It does look like 10% to me.  85 drops / 843 CP = 9.77%.  Small sample size, but...

1 hour ago, Ravi-Sama said:

Went through my records looking for more LD data, which isn't perfect, b/c it wasn't always a priority for me.  Pieced together more drop info from 11 more girls.  My avg drop rate is ~8% = 368 drops / 4644 CP.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Ravi-Sama

[Horsting]

6 hours ago, madahmed said:

i had 11 shards for her from previous events so i got the 12th shard than started using SPs.

To get her i used :

762 CP ( 230 free from Regen Pantheon SM and DR + 567 refills) - 7 remained

kobans : 4 SP = 360 + refills = 981 kobans = 1341 kobans (8046 K on main server)

drop rate ; 6.65 %

How do you end up at 6.65%? 45/762=5.9%. Did you still have the records of the previous event, both adding up to 762 CP with more than 2 single shard drops?

[madahmed]

il y a 47 minutes, Horsting a dit :

How do you end up at 6.65%? 45/762=5.9%. Did you still have the records of the previous event, both adding up to 762 CP with more than 2 single shard drops?

you are right .when i divided the numbers , i used 50 instead of 45 .my bad

[Horsting]

Okay, good as I want get an overall drop rate from all reports here, to narrow down the question whether the concurrent SM did negatively affect it or not. I fear the data size is still too small, but a hypothesis test will show.
Does someone had and remember the topic from math classes in high school? I am so happy that I gave private math tutoring for years, to keep those topics accessible 🤓.

[OmerB]

I could only collect 47 shards of Bunna (hurting my chances to get Felicitas too).

I'm hoping that she'll show up soon, waiting for her next revival...

[DvDivXXX]

54 minutes ago, OmerB said:

I'm hoping that she'll show up soon, waiting for her next revival...

In a year at best, and that's if they keep the running gag of reviving her specifically every summer for all eternity.

[garadron]

When you're on a trip and one day just randomly see incoming Bunna revival...

I was lucky enough to have a calm day where I was able to just rush Bunna during the first day of MDR, no matter the cost lol

I started with 10 shards so I had to use only 4 SP for this one.