[February 14th, 2024] Orgy Days 50

[bolitho76]

Girls:

Mission Girl:

Living Fantasy Judy

 

Villain Girls:

Val Kelina (Ninja Spy - Ninja Village), Loving Bunny (Ninja Spy - Ninja Village), Val Abraël (Gruntt - Invaded Kingdom), Val Spook (Gruntt - Invaded Kingdom), Romantic Anita (Edwarda - The Juy Sea), Date Arianne (Edwarda - The Juy Sea), Val Shao (Donation - Admittance of the Death), Lovely Cori (Donation - Admittance of the Death), Countess de Charmante (Silvanus - Magic Forest), Fatale Janine (Silvanus - Magic Forest), Lovestruck D.D. (Bremen - Hamelin Town), Intrusive Airi (Bremen - Hamelin Town), Winona (Finalmecia - Plain of Rituals), Office Celeste (Finalmecia - Plain of Rituals), Office Katana (Fredy Shih Roko - Heroes University), Jessy (Fredy Shih Roko - Heroes University), Lovestruck Mercy (Karole - Ninja sacred lands), Lovestruck Guinevere (Karole - Ninja sacred lands)

Champion Girls:

Loving Lupa (Romero), Rosy (Whaty), Belinda (Matsuda)

 

Pachinko Girls:

Lovestruck Ankyo, Lovestruck Kumiko, Psyche, Librarian Danielle, Kagehime Any, Val Red Battler, Cupid Chan, Loving Arcana, Val Mala, Val Cupid, Val Jennie, Guinevere, Val Kalissa, Cheriko, Val Norou, Romantic Levitya, Val Notka, Milenitta, Loving Virginia, Val Mavin, Ketsuko, Val Mani, Loving Justine, Loving Pelagie
 

[bolitho76]

One Girl avalaible to me:

 

[DvDivXXX]

Lucky you! ^^

My OD experience consisted in clicking on "Claim". As expected, and as predicted for the foreseeable future, unless they start adding new girls to the EP pool via OD again someday...

[garadron]

Welp, compared to you guys, I have a lot of work in this department

[Inuzuka]

Oh wow, I can actually get a girl from the daily missions in an Orgy Days.

[Yamiray]

Looks like we have

Missions:

Living Fantasy Judy

Trolls:

Ninja spy:Val Kelina,Loving Bunny
Gruntt:Val Abraël,Val Spook
Edwarda:Romantic Anita,Date Arianne
Donatien:Val Shao,Lovely Cori
Silvanus:Countess de Charmante,Fatale Janine
Bremen:Lovestruck D.D.,Intrusive Airi
Finalmecia:Winona,Office Celeste
Fredy Sih Roko Senseï:Office Katana,Jessy
Karole:Lovestruck Mercy,Lovestruck Guinevere

Champion:

Romero:Loving Lupa
Whaty:Rosy
Matsuda:Belinda

[Fallen42]

20 seems a bit dificult without DD. 7 i can get from villains, the remaining 13 are packinko only. Ill do 4 girls with fists, and hopefully i can do the remaining 16 with packinko. i have 188 orbs and 6 10 game orbs. Doesn't look too good to be honest.

[Karxan]

6/46 Girls
Missions:  Living Fantasy Judy 70/100💖

Trolls:
Ninja spy: Val Kelina 100/100💖, Loving Bunny
Gruntt: Val Abraël, Val Spook
Edwarda: Romantic Anita, Date Arianne
Donatien: Val Shao, Lovely Cori
Silvanus: Countess de Charmante, Fatale Janine
Bremen: Lovestruck D.D., Intrusive Airi 100/100💖
Finalmecia: Winona, Office Celeste
Fredy Sih Roko Senseï: Office Katana, Jessy
Karole: Lovestruck Mercy, Lovestruck Guinevere

Champion:
Romero: Loving Lupa
Whaty: Rosy
Matsuda: Belinda

Loving Virginia 100/100💖, Val Mavin 100/100💖, Romantic Levitya 100/100💖
((DDouble checks FEB Calendar))  DDouble DDate starts after this ends...  Oh, my Orbs...
 

[DvDivXXX]

6 hours ago, garadron said:

Welp, compared to you guys, I have a lot of work in this department

Sure, we've all been there. I've been playing this game daily for 4.5 years by now, and I've finished completely emptying my OD/MP pool only a few months ago. Rome wasn't built in a day. ^^ You'll get there sooner or later. Some parts of the game simply dry out eventually, if you keep at it long enough (and with a solid enough method).

If they hadn't stopped adding a couple of new permanent EP girls through OD, I would at least still have these two new girls to look forward to. As it is now, OD is basically no longer an event for me, which is mostly a good thing for my overall progress, but it also has a few downsides (chief among them: MP no longer holds any girl for me either). Come to think of it, they've stopped adding new girls to the EP pool, period. Which is a blessing for players still working on these goals (emptying the EP pool and then eventually the OD/MP pool), but also a bit of a curse for end-game players who basically have nothing to do with them EP orbs but grabbing the CE girls each month.

4 hours ago, Fallen42 said:

20 seems a bit dificult without DD. 7 i can get from villains, the remaining 13 are packinko only. Ill do 4 girls with fists, and hopefully i can do the remaining 16 with packinko. i have 188 orbs and 6 10 game orbs. Doesn't look too good to be honest.

I wouldn't recommend this. Scratch that: I would strongly advise against doing this! Unless these 20 girls from the February OD pool happen to be the only ones you have left to get, you're just going to face another wall with next month's OD and so on. Not to mention, even worse, if you go about it this way, you're going to struggle for future CEs. Which defeats the purpose of grabbing a ton of girls from OD.

What's your goal and what's your strategy to reach that goal?

If it's the same as the vast majority of players in the long run with these pools, then there's no rush. It's much better to thin out the herd slowly but surely, a few at a time every month throughout the year, and then the following year you'll resume the exact same cycle again, but with a smaller pool to work on, rinse and repeat until you have no more girls left to get. That's what I did (and most other veterans who also have an empty pool by now; many of them long before me).

The correct order is: Empty your permanent EP pool => Reach a point where you can clear CE every month reliably => Start working on emptying your remaining OD/MP pool. If you skip any of these steps, you'll never be done. I know you've already completed the first goal, emptying your EP pool, that's a great start. Now if you really want to do the same with your OD/MP pool eventually, then you really shouldn't burn everything you have on this random first OD event that happens to present itself after you've acquired a bunch of EP orbs. Keep those as a safety net to make sure you grab all new girls coming from CE every month from now on, so that they don't get added to your existing OD/MP pool first and foremost. Once the pool no longer grows, it can only get smaller and smaller as you go. If you let CE girls pass you by so that you can grab more old girls from OD, then you'll never empty your OD pool.

If your goal isn't to empty your pool eventually and/or you just really really want all the past February girls for whatever reason, never mind. You do you in any case. As long as you're having fun.

[Fallen42]

41 minutes ago, DvDivXXX said:

I wouldn't recommend this. Scratch that: I would strongly advise against doing this! Unless these 20 girls from the February OD pool happen to be the only ones you have left to get, you're just going to face another wall with next month's OD and so on. Not to mention, even worse, if you go about it this way, you're going to struggle for future CEs. Which defeats the purpose of grabbing a ton of girls from OD.

What's your goal and what's your strategy to reach that goal?

If it's the same as the vast majority of players in the long run with these pools, then there's no rush. It's much better to thin out the herd slowly but surely, a few at a time every month throughout the year, and then the following year you'll resume the exact same cycle again, but with a smaller pool to work on, rinse and repeat until you have no more girls left to get. That's what I did (and most other veterans who also have an empty pool by now; many of them long before me).

The correct order is: Empty your permanent EP pool => Reach a point where you can clear CE every month reliably => Start working on emptying your remaining OD/MP pool. If you skip any of these steps, you'll never be done. I know you've already completed the first goal, emptying your EP pool, that's a great start. Now if you really want to do the same with your OD/MP pool eventually, then you really shouldn't burn everything you have on this random first OD event that happens to present itself after you've acquired a bunch of EP orbs. Keep those as a safety net to make sure you grab all new girls coming from CE every month from now on, so that they don't get added to your existing OD/MP pool first and foremost. Once the pool no longer grows, it can only get smaller and smaller as you go. If you let CE girls pass you by so that you can grab more old girls from OD, then you'll never empty your OD pool.

If your goal isn't to empty your pool eventually and/or you just really really want all the past February girls for whatever reason, never mind. You do you in any case. As long as you're having fun.

You are right, especially since DD is not here to help out. I have a bad habit of using up my resources too much and it can be troublesome during competitions. You cant win it all.

Ill see at the end how much i decide to use up, perhaps no orbs if no competition for pachinko shows up.

[Karxan]

Event x4 Games Orbs, is it better to have a bunch to use at once, or to use just one?

Also debating to use now or save for DD?

[DvDivXXX]

5 hours ago, Karxan said:

Event x4 Games Orbs, is it better to have a bunch to use at once, or to use just one?

Save a bunch as a last resort. The odds of getting a girl from each EvP orb are only 22.5% (maybe even 22.25%? I can't remember for sure, but it's less than 1/4 chance). So if you have at least half a dozen or so, you have a decent shot at grabbing at least one girl from them (possibly more, if you're lucky). If you just use one, you have more than a 77% chance to drop none.

[garadron]

10 hours ago, DvDivXXX said:

Sure, we've all been there. I've been playing this game daily for 4.5 years by now, and I've finished completely emptying my OD/MP pool only a few months ago. Rome wasn't built in a day. ^^ You'll get there sooner or later. Some parts of the game simply dry out eventually, if you keep at it long enough (and with a solid enough method).

Yup yup, I've only recently cleared my EP pool and started working on the MP one so it will take time, no stress or rush needed. Especially when the pool isn't growing any larger at this point as you mentioned.

According to the filters in Harem++ I'm missing 271 MP girls right now and I'm mostly hoping for some DD&OD combo (I have enough EP orbs to spend some during DD) or simply getting some girls in the daily pools during DD to use my 3x and 6x MP orbs on.

[430i]

Is anyone tracking their drop rate for one of those villains with multiple girls? I am having some horrible drop rates and have the feeling that its broken

[Vovantillo]

I feel for you guys, but I don’t envy myself, since my journey is just beginning. Fortunately, I already have one girl (Belinda), I just don’t remember how and when she ended up in my harem. Apparently he dragged her into his den after a nightclub, spent half the night with her until he fell asleep under the influence of alcohol fumes, and she didn’t want to leave and stayed with me. Well, we are responsible for those we have tamed)))

[bolitho76]

6 hours ago, 430i said:

Is anyone tracking their drop rate for one of those villains with multiple girls? I am having some horrible drop rates and have the feeling that its broken

I can only refer to the test-server in the case of Villain Drops from OD. I could get 45 shards to complete Winona (started with 55 shards from a former appearnce of her) and 85 shards from Office Celeste so far. I used something around 170 combativity to get theese shards.

[Fallen42]

on nutaku we have pachinko competition today so i used some of the orbs. The result was 93 orbs no drops... 😭

Hours later i got the girl the very next orb, so at least something. I have a strong feeling that the rgn is very depended on time, sometimes the results are just abysmal the more you persist the worse it gets and another times its raining girls.

And to be honest for me only once or twice the girls in EP droped every 25 orbs, the norm for me is every 60-70 orbs per girl. Today's disappointment was mostly due to me reading that drop rate is 4% so every 25 orbs. I hate gambling and rgn is just like that. I hope the new packinko comes sooner than later.

[OmerB]

I'm getting better and better on OD...

I have only one girl with a champion (Whatty).

I'll go for her now, after getting one from Edwarda.

[bolitho76]

50 minutes ago, Fallen42 said:

I have a strong feeling that the rgn is very depended on time, sometimes the results are just abysmal the more you persist the worse it gets and another times its raining girls.

I understand that you have this "feeling" - sadly it's one of the examples how our brain trick us with rng-systems. There is no coincidence with the time - it's the normal variance in rng systems. If you have two times at a specific times a nearly same result, our brain try to use this as pattern and only if you collect data over a long time/a really great amount of trys you can stay out of the trap our human brain build for us.🙂

56 minutes ago, Fallen42 said:

the norm for me is every 60-70 orbs per girl.

You have longtime data? No offense! It's only, that the human brain try to trick us with such patterns too. Very often there are people who think that in rng-systems that they performed much worser or much better than the average and if you check the (longtime) collected data it displays that the results are mostly averge - only the brain of the people remembered only the "good" or the "bad" streaks. 🙂

Human brains are bad to deal with (mostly) true rng, sad, but true. 😉

1 hour ago, Fallen42 said:

I hope the new packinko comes sooner than later.

You seems optimistic, but I prefer to stay pessimistic. It's hard to imagine that KK will really make something better with the Pachinko rework, at least to me. I hope that it will last very long until they can start to make the rework because I highly doubt that they make a more meaningfull thing.

[Fallen42]

8 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

I understand that you have this "feeling" - sadly it's one of the examples how our brain trick us with rng-systems. There is no coincidence with the time - it's the normal variance in rng systems. If you have two times at a specific times a nearly same result, our brain try to use this as pattern and only if you collect data over a long time/a really great amount of trys you can stay out of the trap our human brain build for us.🙂

Perhaps i expressed myself badly, i did not mean a specific time but in general, there are instances the drops are low, if for example you dont get a drop in 25 orbs, its usually better to try a bit later instead of just continuing using orbs.

19 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

You have longtime data? No offense! It's only, that the human brain try to trick us with such patterns too. Very often there are people who think that in rng-systems that they performed much worser or much better than the average and if you check the (longtime) collected data it displays that the results are mostly averge - only the brain of the people remembered only the "good" or the "bad" streaks. 🙂

No unfortunately i don't keep track of it. Its based on my shity memory, for a while i believed the drop rate was only 1-2%, only in the last two DD events i was very lucky and the drop rate was around 4% for those 2 events.

And besides even longer time results can have a decently large differences from the norm, especially if the percentage is low, you need a really large number of test to guarantee to be closer to the average.

 

30 minutes ago, bolitho76 said:

You seems optimistic, but I prefer to stay pessimistic. It's hard to imagine that KK will really make something better with the Pachinko rework, at least to me. I hope that it will last very long until they can start to make the rework because I highly doubt that they make a more meaningfull thing.

Its not me being optimistic, but the new packinko is supposed to have drops on specific number of orbs used, unlike now where you relay on luck. And i prefer to know when ill get an item or a girl instead of rolling and hoping for a drop. Im sure some people dont like that, but i do.

[DvDivXXX]

43 minutes ago, Fallen42 said:

if for example you dont get a drop in 25 orbs, its usually better to try a bit later instead of just continuing using orbs.

Dude! NO. That's bonafide superstition right there.

Variance. Look it up, learn what it is, make sure to fully and truly understand it, and you'll save yourself a lot of irrational mumbo jumbo like the above (and countless other forms of complete bogus a lot, maybe even a majority of players of games of chance juggle with in their head to force patterns they project onto things that they simply don't observe from the correct distance and long enough to make sense of them).

Either that, or you'll stay in the same group of people who think the color of the shirt they're wearing while watching a sports game on TV (or whatever other BS they convinced themselves of) somehow has an influence on the players out on the field IRL and the outcome (specifically whether the team they've destroyed money betting on will win or not, as if they gave a shit or even had any awareness of any rando's whereabouts and what bets they placed on them or not).

Not my most complete or patient summary of this point so far, but it's like the billionth time I have to explain this on the forum (and the trillionth time for me overall). You can make a search for the term "variance" on the forum and you should have no trouble finding threads where I explained things more nicely and/or in more details.

TL;DR: You're applying faith to probabilities. That's never a good idea. Odds are predictable and reliable over a large enough sample and long enough duration. They're not magical beasts that please you when you're nice to them or punish you when you failed whatever ritual you think influences them. They're logical things that behave in an entirely mathematical and understandable manner. They're measured with data over time and can be estimated with averages, and within ranges.

For instance, this is completely the incorrect way of looking at your results:

2 hours ago, Fallen42 said:

The result was 93 orbs no drops... 😭

Hours later i got the girl the very next orb, so at least something.

No. Assuming the last time you got a drop the last time you've used an orb before today, then your result was that you got one drop in 94 orbs today. But that's just the tip of the iceberg, because it's still a statistically insignificant and definitely incomplete sample. Taking small chunks of your results out of the larger context they belong in can make them look like a specific story, serving one bias or the other, but that's not real. Your results for each particular feature or mechanic that has its own drop rate (and range) should be looked at as a continuum. You might get 5 drops out of your next 10 orbs, and you could also look at that on its own and tell the story of that time you got super lucky, just like excluding the drop you had just before and just after these 93 orbs lets you tell the sad story of that time you got super unlucky. These stories paint completely opposite but equally wrong pictures.

The real story is much more mundane and also much fairer than either extreme. If we're talking EP orbs here, the drop rate is currently estimated at around 4.5%. This means that if you note down all of your results from EP orbs for long enough, you'll inevitably find that on average you get about 4 and a half drops per 100 orbs. It most likely won't be the case with just 100 orbs, though. Because variance. But note down your results for the next 1000 orbs and it will lean closer to the expected average. 10,000 and you'll almost certainly land very very close to it.

You know what the best part is? Once you see it through the correct lens, you'll never be disappointed or surprised by your results anymore. Know what the expected average is, take the lowest possible estimate of the range it sits in, and always plan your moves expecting that result. This way, you'll only ever get good surprises (occasionally), or no surprise at all (most of the time).

Okay, now I went ahead and spelled it all out again, even though I didn't want to this time. ^^ Hope this helps. Cheers.

EDIT: 

43 minutes ago, Fallen42 said:

the new packinko is supposed to have drops on specific number of orbs used, unlike now where you relay on luck.

What? No. Where did you hear that? Somebody misunderstood something (either you or your source). You're talking about a pity timer (whether you know what that is or not). There are NO pity timers in any Kinkoid game. Only odds that are known and constant for each relevant mechanic.

The odds are 4.5% for EP orbs. It does NOT mean that you're guaranteed 4 drops and a half every time you use 100 orbs. Or even a single drop for that matter. That's a completely separate mechanic that exists in many games, but not HH.

Edited February 16 by DvDivXXX
updated

[Fallen42]

You really made me think this time. Am i really superstitious?

My thinking is that the random generator is not truly random and can give you one sided results if using in sequence, so to try and get a more random number its best to try with a break. I must admit i don't know much about it and this is mostly from hearsay about the random generator.

[DvDivXXX]

19 minutes ago, Fallen42 said:

random generator is not truly random

That's basically true of almost everything you can play on a computer, console or similar device. Pure random can't be coded, so RNG is always some sort of algorithm that pumps out numbers with patterns so varied and so wildly beyond human comprehension that they might as well be pure random for all intents and purposes. 99.99% of games you play simulate randomness, but 0% does it in such a simplistic and primitive way that you could actually predict or even notice a glimpse of the patterns and formulas they actually use simply by playing the game. And that's absolutely fine.

There are a precious few companies with Scrooge McDuck money to throw at physical devices to produce a truly random seed for their RNG (even some with lasers and mirrors and all kinds of showoff bullshit). It doesn't actually make any palpable difference for anyone. They only do it to have a bulletproof defense against the "it's not true randomness" type of rants from angry customers who lost a lot of money on their game(s) and would rather accuse the house of cheating than considering the cold hard facts that they have a gambling addiction, and/or that they're nowhere near as good as they think at the game in question, and/or that they're playing a fucking game of chance, and variance is a thing. ^^

19 minutes ago, Fallen42 said:

hearsay about the random generator

Given the few samples we've had of what you've heard so far, I'd strongly advise to forget all of it and start afresh from my posts to you today, and only trust info that is verified, confirmed and/or commonly accepted as a correct estimation by the tight community around here from now on.

[430i]

On 2/15/2024 at 8:10 AM, garadron said:

According to the filters in Harem++ I'm missing 271 MP girls right now

How did you figure it out? I thought the MP filter does not work anymore? At least it doesnt for me

[garadron]

I've set these filters:

And it seems to be working fine