event ruined

[kobra]

I would personally like to thank the developers for destroying the drop table by adding the affection items , after 800+battles and refils i failed to aquire the legendary girl , much apreciated and well played i guess the old formula gave to much to players so you had to mess it up just a little .

 Again much apreciated and hope you have fun in the future because i`m done, random is random but this is to much ....

[Fiel]

I think you are wrong. The affection items doesn't affect the chance of getting the girl.

They are there to counter the small amount of money the ninja gives away.

[kobra]

and mess the drop table , as you only get 1 item dropped /battle , they do mess up the drop table as it 4 other things besides the girl that have to be taken in to the equation , so instead of 2 items money and the legendary even you have 6 items randomly with the girl being the lowest chance of all 

Edited May 18, 2018 by kobra

[Chthugha]

uhm, kobra... that's not how loot pools work.

without the legendary gifts it would be something like a 100-sided die with on one side a girl and on 99 sides money.
with the legendary gifts it would be something like a 100-sided die with on one side a girl, on 4 sides a legendary gift and on 95 sides money.

(percentages are just there for the example.

[kobra]

pls don`t treat me like a idiot , this is not the first time i`ve seen it happen how loot pools are distiled by adding more useless junk, excuse me adding extra rewards every single item there reduces the odds of receiving the 1 item you want , thats how gambling works , increase the number of possible rewards to decrease the odds of someone actually winning it

 

Edited May 18, 2018 by kobra

[Chthugha]

2 minutes ago, kobra said:

pls don`t treat me like a idiot , this is not the first time i`ve seen it happen how loot pools are distiled by adding more useless junk, excuse me adding extra rewards every single item there reduces the odds of receiving the 1 item you want , thats how gambling works , increase the number of possible rewards to decrease the odds of someone actually winning it

 

I'm not treating you like an idiot, that's what you make of it because you are budged in your ways and think you are right.

Anyway, I cannot force you to believe me, so I'll let you sorrow.

[kobra]

if you have a valid mathematic argument is to how it does not affect the drop pool off the legend girl pls do share it , otherwise don`t give generic responses

[trunks2585]

Im going to have to disagree just for the fact that a lot of players are already reporting getting her in a reasonable number of tries.  I will say your bad luck does illustrate that a mercy drop rate should be implemented.

[kobra]

and also dear moderator , taking your numbers getting the legend girl with just money involved is 1/100 chances , adding just 1 extra rare drop makes it become 1/200 since adding a lovely 4 new items to the drop table since the drops are not independent and are all merged makes it more or less 1/500 to get the girl , you can still get the 1 on first try , but its very much more likely to not get it then to get it at these odds

[Chthugha]

1 minute ago, kobra said:

and also dear moderator , taking your numbers getting the legend girl with just money involved is 1/100 chances , adding just 1 extra rare drop makes it become 1/200 since adding a lovely 4 new items to the drop table since the drops are not independent and are all merged makes it more or less 1/500 to get the girl , you can still get the 1 on first try , but its very much more likely to not get it then to get it at these odds

look at the example again >,<

[kobra]

i dont have to , the affinity rewards are not on a separate drop table , your exmple just implis that you have a change of 5/500 to get the purple drops and 1/500 for the girl it changes nothing since you dont get both money and the affinity drops combined , they are individual and thus divide the drop pool

[YoyoHH]

1 hour ago, kobra said:

if you have a valid mathematic argument is to how it does not affect the drop pool off the legend girl pls do share it , otherwise don`t give generic responses

Valid mathematic example below (using Chthugha's perfectly acceptable dice example, not sure what you don't get about):

Hypothetical drop rate #1 - 100 RNG = 99x is a cash reward, 1x is a girl reward

Hypothetical drop rate #2 - 100 RNG = 95x is a cash reward, 4x is an item reward, 1x is a girl reward

No change to the chance of the girl drop.  Based upon the feedback we've seen so far regarding this event, it appears as if the drop rate was actually increased in comparison to the Levitya event.  All speculation, of course.

1 hour ago, kobra said:

Again much apreciated and hope you have fun in the future because i`m done, random is random but this is to much ....

4

This point, "random is random but this is too much", is an extremely credible criticism and I agree with it.  The 100% randomness of the system is the problem.  800+ battles without a drop is an extreme streak of bad luck in comparison to what most people are seeing.  And to have made absolutely no progress towards acquiring the girl is a joke.  We need, at some point, to protect players from horrific bad luck streaks.  Random is random but this is too much.

Edited May 18, 2018 by YoyoHH

[Chthugha]

1 hour ago, Chthugha said:

uhm, kobra... that's not how loot pools work.

without the legendary gifts it would be something like a 100-sided die with on one side a girl and on 99 sides money.
with the legendary gifts it would be something like a 100-sided die with on one side a girl, on 4 sides a legendary gift and on 95 sides money.

(percentages are just there for the example.

chance on legendary girl in case one: 1%
chance on money in case one: 99%

chance on legendary girl in case two: 1%
chance on legendary gifts in case two: 4%
chance on money in case two: 95%

5 minutes ago, kobra said:

i dont have to , the affinity rewards are not on a separate drop table , your exmple just implis that you have a change of 5/500 to get the purple drops and 1/500 for the girl it changes nothing since you dont get both money and the affinity drops combined , they are individual and thus divide the drop pool

now what part about not needing to read again makes your assumptions the same as what I said.
I don't know where you took your maths courses on probability and statistics, but I would take those books from the shelf and go through them again.

[kobra]

its quite simple my dear moderator , lets take a simple example like a 6 number dice , you have 1/6 to get what number you want , then you add a second dice , now you have a 1 out of 36 chances to get the number you want , and all dice numbers have a equal chance to land , now lets change the math equation to our game , where we have not 1 not 2 but 6 different items on a drop table of 100 with the odds heavely scewed in favor of money and items

[YoyoHH]

3 minutes ago, kobra said:

its quite simple my dear moderator , lets take a simple example like a 6 number dice , you have 1/6 to get what number you want , then you add a second dice , now you have a 1 out of 36 chances to get the number you want , and all dice numbers have a equal chance to land , now lets change the math equation to our game , where we have not 1 not 2 but 6 different items on a drop table of 100 with the odds heavely scewed in favor of money and items

Nobody added a second dice, dude.  Let's use your example, a six-sided dice.

BEFORE: 1 = girl, 2 = cash, 3 = cash, 4 = cash, 5 = cash, 6 = cash.  This was the loot table before.  You had a 1 in 6 chance of getting the number you wanted.

NOW: 1 = girl, 2 = item, 3 = cash, 4 = cash, 5 = cash, 6 = cash.  This is the loot table now.  The item was added in place of one of the cash drops.  The percentage chance of the girl drop is the same.  You still have a 1 in 6 chance of getting the number you want.

Are we really having this conversation?  We're all on the same side.  The RNG is a problem, and the drops are not fair.  But adding the affection items is not the problem.  It just isn't.

[Silent Hunter]

Drop rate of legendary girl & legendary gift are random.I got legendary girl after 120+ battles,along with 5 legendary gifts.

Don't be mad @kobra.You will get her,just keep trying.

[kobra]

you did see i have tried 800+times so far right , not once or twice , and you are wrong every time you start a new battle chances get shuffled back to 0 there is no keep going till you get to the end , thats the bigest problem i`ve spent 7000+kobans on refils and there nothing at the end of all that effort, exactly what yoyo said there is no fail safe to the rng bullshit

[Dirk Diggler]

I cant argue Kobra's point as I can see the reasoning behind the odds both ways . His point is without knowing what the formula is he is using his speculation and experience as his result . The mod is giving a counter point that it is more like a 100 sided die and trying to get a 1 without offering any actual formula or hard number facts as basis , thus Kobra devalues this point since its not based in fact and doesn't reflect his or her situation .

 

I can mirror Kobra's facts though as I have done close to 600-700+ battles at this point and ive only received 3 items and money no girl (for the record I have all the ninjas girls if anyone is wondering) . What people are going by are the posts saying I get her in this many fights , people love to brag , few are going to come out and say I spent $200 worth of kobans and only got 3 affection items because they feel like idiots for doing so much less those who have gone though much much more then that .

 

Only the devs can see the logs and know what the real statistics are , the mods don't , that is why I have caught them giving uninformed answers in the past because they thought It was correct . They do their best but they have little info we don't already have , they are the plausible deniability factor . They get generic info to pass on to us that way right or wrong they are telling us what they know and nothing more .

[Taka007]

I tend to believe in the increased drop rates and @Chthugha example with the 100 sided die (nice example btw, math student here). I agree with @Dirk Diggler regarding "not knowing the formula" though. As long as we have no insight on the formula it is very well possible that the gifts are affecting the drop rate in a negative way.

However, considering the results and reports from the last events with the reports on this event (I got her after 300+ battles) then from a short comparison (of admittedly small sample sizes) I arrive to the conclusion that the drop rate of the legendary girl has increased considerably. Even if the gifts were to affect the rate, statisticly speaking from the feedback from this forum it is unlikely that drop rates are butchered. They have statisticly increased by a fair amount. From my observation 300 seems to be the average with some getting her at below 100 battles and some unfortunate souls needing 1000+. But that is RNG, statisticly it is possible for the girl to not appear even after 1.000.000 attempts, but so is getting her at the first try.

RNG is gonna RNG, but from my observation the rate to get the girl has increased. Whether or whether not the gifts affect it is secondary.

[YoyoHH]

28 minutes ago, Dirk Diggler said:

What people are going by are the posts saying I get her in this many fights , people love to brag , few are going to come out and say I spent $200 worth of kobans and only got 3 affection items because they feel like idiots for doing so much less those who have gone though much much more then that .

2

I'm not going to argue that we have any factual data on the drop rate.  Of course we don't.  The posts on the forums can, however, help us to gather data across a number of users and hopefully get a general idea.  Devs, if you're reading this, please just tell us the drop rate.

It's far from an unbiased poll, I'll grant you.  But I don't agree with you that people don't post their failures.  Following the Levitya event, we had a tremendous number of posters basically stating exactly what you said - they spent a ton of kobans, got nothing, and now feel like idiots.  If you compare the posts following the Levitya event with the posts during this event, it certainly looks like more people are acquiring the girl with fewer fights than with Levitya.  There are extremes in both cases.  There were some people who got Levitya on day 1 with only a few fights, but there weren't many.  And there are people like you who have fought like crazy and not dropped Norou, but these people seem to be in the minority, whereas with Leviya they were the majority.  Everything Taka007 says in his post above this is 100% on point.

Bottom line is - the RNG is stupid and we need a system to protect players from horrible luck.  Devs, please give us a set drop point to protect us from bad RNG.

Edited May 18, 2018 by YoyoHH

[Ben9]

Without knowing how the loot table is implemented this is all speculation either way.

Chthughas example is fine, but it could also be implemented like -- loot table one is prize 1%, cash 99%.   IF you get prize, loot table two is gifts 80%, girl 20%.  This is quite a common way to code things actually as it helps keep "overall prize chance" and "prize choice" odds independent of each other if you want to change something later. 

In any case, depending on how the odds are set, girl may still be equal or higher chance than the last event, based on very limited set of results that are shared it does seem that way.   A pity timer would definitely help with the edge cases that have bad luck.

[trunks2585]

Also kobra, hou only mentioned youbglt 800 pulls so far.  How many gifts have you gotten, so we have a point of reference.

[kobra]

until this event i got everyone since i started playing (79 girls), and this is the very first event where the affinity drops have been added and i seem to have not been able to aquire the girl , and @Ben9 i do believe you are spot on on your example , at least that how it feels like to me anyway if you are lucky enough to land on the prize then there is a second roll where you get either item or girl

[natstar]

You have a set chance of getting the event harem member every time so adding affection gifts does not change your chance of getting the event harem member to drop.

The affection gifts are the best thing that they could have added because they're worth so much money and it makes up for the lack of money high-level players get plus the affection gifts are good for lower level players as well because money is harder to get so it makes it cost a lot to buy the legendary gifts in the shop and they are so good that some players are still farming ninja spy for them after getting her to drop.

They give players that are not know how a bonus for joining in on the event.

 

17 minutes ago, kobra said:

until this event i got everyone since i started playing (79 girls), and this is the very first event where the affinity drops have been added and i seem to have not been able to aquire the girl , and @Ben9 i do believe you are spot on on your example , at least that how it feels like to me anyway if you are lucky enough to land on the prize then there is a second roll where you get either item or girl

The event has only just started it and it's not over yet so that makes no sense because you still have time to get her.

She is clearly dropping just fine go look at the forum and you will see people getting her

Edited May 18, 2018 by natstar

[Dirk Diggler]

Ill update my previous mention of my own stupidity . 73 total koban refills not counting the natural points I spent , well over 1500 attempts and the tally thus far is girl = 0 , affections items in total = 20 up from 3 (yes I did get a few runs of back to back drops finally) (8 flowers , 6 hearts , 3 jewelry , 3 lingerie) . I still believe that no where near as many people will post results like this out of their own feelings about this , some of course will out of disgust , anger , or even hatred over the matter , but few will post results like his our of wanting to keep things accurate .

 

If someone wants to crunch the numbers , please do , but I don't think the 20 affection items I listed would equal the difference between a maxed ninja at 5.5k and a maxed fal at 26.5k or even rook if you have him maxed . I could be wrong but my brain hurst after all that and I don't feel like doing the math right now ...

Edited May 18, 2018 by Dirk Diggler
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