Karyia Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 5 hours ago, GeorgeMTO said: Wait, I think I may have figured it out. He's possibly referring to the Thursday right after the patch where we had the old contests still running, and we started getting contests that last only 1 day. If that is the case his memory isn't unreliable, but his ability to apply logic would be, since that's obviously just wonky patch overlaps. IIRC, that's also consistent with the 4 day contests, since some were extended, I think... can't remember for sure. 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_shal_ Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 (edited) 9 hours ago, LanceHardwood said: I could say the same about you, being that I'm 100% certain I have received at least 1 single day contest, which I did find odd at the time. Honestly, I find your tone to be bs. Just because you're level whatever doesn't give you the right to invalidate other people's experience with a single sentence. Please don't bother replying, my original post wasn't meant for you anyway mr. High Roller. Can't you just take your obnoxious cluelessness back to the Clicker section of the forum, to which you had thankfully confined your presence until a week ago? You clearly have no idea about anything in HH. This has been at least the third time already that you've claimed to be absolutely sure about something that is simply patently wrong. Edit: And just to ward off one likely line of response: Even if you happen to write something accurate at some point in the future, why should anyone believe anything from you with the impressively suspect track record you've managed to amass in this short time posting here? Edited February 22, 2020 by _shal_ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceHardwood Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 (edited) .. Edited February 22, 2020 by LanceHardwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linkdream Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 (edited) I believe the game always indicates "Ends in 1d xxh yym" for the 2 days events. Maybe that's why some people get confused? Edited February 22, 2020 by linkdream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blaa Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 24 minutes ago, linkdream said: I believe the game always indicates "Ends in 1d xxh yym" for the 2 days events. Maybe that's why some people get confused? Even if, after playing the contest for one day they should realise that they havent won shit. To be honest, there were some contests in the old system were I thought they would end that day but then I realised i mislooked and they were going on for at least one day - happend a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHarry Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 On 2/20/2020 at 3:19 PM, DvDivXXX said: 1/ There is no reason to suspect either drop rate has been changed whatsoever. It seems very pessimistic to me to assume that they would lower the drop rate because they give free spins away from orbs now. That would defeat the purpose of introducing orbs in the first place, and be a really evil move, and that sounds ridiculous to me. Beyond that, I have yet to see or hear of the devs ever lowering any drop rate anywhere in the game (let alone without announcing it). Drop range has been changed (improved! actually) in at least one case (the monthly 12-day event, this very month, going from 1-6 to 2-8), but that's all. Suspicions of drop rates being lowered is typically a knee-jerk emotional reaction to bad streaks due to natural variance on a small sample size (which fits DHarry's post like a glove). Such claims have always been unfounded and proven wrong so far (not just in this game, mind you, but in fairly much any game with drop rates). So I would tone down the paranoia on that. ^^ 2/ Drop rate for a girl with a MPx1 spin is estimated at below 1% but above 0.5%. Some claim 0.6%, but I'm not sure we have enough data to be that precise. The ballpark is definitely right, though. There have been enough tests and consistent records of free spins with each rotation to be confident about that (we've had 54 rotations so far; you can check the dedicated thread if you want). The avatar drop drate is just about 50%. So yeah, you're going to get a lot of avatars from your MPx1 orbs before you drop a girl (on average). No surprise there. 3/ I have less verifiable information about the drop rate for a girl with an EPx1 spin (experts, please feel free to confirm or correct me; you guys know who you are ^^), but what I've consistently heard from various, mostly reliable sources, is that it's estimated either at around 6.5% or at "about 1 in 12" (which would be 8.33% if I calculated this correctly, so a more generous, but also less precise estimation). In any case, it's vastly superior to the drop rate for MPx1, that's for sure. Also, the MPx1 drop rate is so low it's almost negligible, whereas the one for EPx1 is decent enough to yield solid results over time. I think that's obviously why MPx1 are treated as lower value rewards compared to EPx1 in the system; it's not just because the spin costs more kobans to buy, it's simply much better. If anecdotal evidence helps (psychologically, not statistically, duh), I've gotten 2 girls from my 4 EPx1 spins so far (insanely good streak, I know, but it puts DHarry's bad one in perspective, right?) vs a whopping 0 girls from my 54 MP free spins. Dude, chill. I was just saying I can imagine them doing that and then that it was already a bad idea to spend 540 kobans on that single spin even before, if at all they did that. Nowhere do I claim that my small sample was any base for evidence. That being said, congratulations with your good luck. Just saying, a lucky streak would also be possible if they did lower the chance. Your 4 spin sample is even smaller than mine. And I wasn't using mine to prove a point. I was just complaining about my bad luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 22, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 22, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, DHarry said: Dude, chill. I was very chill already, but thanks. I'm not sure why (well, I have a guess), but a few people on this forum seem to read my posts while attributing it an angry or sarcastic tone, even when it's very calm and factual, like the one you're quoting here. Maybe it's because the facts I'm calmly presenting them tend to expose their unfounded venting or paranoid ideas for what they are, which makes them less satisfying, so they turn their frustration to me instead? Or they just don't like my written voice, I guess. Too bad... 1 hour ago, DHarry said: [Excuses] (...) I was just complaining about my bad luck. Yop. You were in a very typical post bad beat nonsense spouting episode in the post of yours I quoted (among others) to put mine in context. Nothing very interesting at all, and that's not what I was looking to dissect. You do you, I really don't care. Tons and tons of players do exactly the same all the time, in any game that involves odds and chance, and I'm very VERY used to their empty rhetoric. You either understand how odds work in the big picture, and you can have a rational approach to the RNG side of things on a daily basis, or you don't, and then it's quite likely you'll end up throwing a paranoid tantrum whenever you get bad RNG, especially if you were already in a bad mood for whatever unrelated reason (but you're just as likely to fail to really notice when you're in a lucky streak). That's the generic "you" as in "someone", by the way. I'm not focused on you in particular, DHarry. And again, I don't need to chill, but you might, if all you've taken away from my post above is "he's saying bad stuff about me, gotta write a rebuttal". But it's likely you won't. I'm used to discussing about odds with players who routinely complain about their bad RNG, and I know that 99% of the time it's impossible to convince them, even when you literally show them their own stats over months and demonstrate to them that they're not actually unlucky (which used to be my job, incidentally; in another field, but the principles are exactly the same). Anyways. Thanks for your thinly veiled jealousy disguised as congratulations about the small sample good streak I referred to, but you unfortunately missed the whole point I was making by mentioning it. I'm not any luckier than you in general. I have bad runs, good runs, and everything in between, just like every player ever. It's called variance. That was my point. Good luck to you. Cheers. Edited February 22, 2020 by DvDivXXX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Noacc Posted February 22, 2020 Community Manager Share Posted February 22, 2020 It's nice to see such a long (and heated) discussion for the game but remember...Keep it bloody friendly 💢 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Curious choice of words, though.. bloody and friendly 😂😜 Topic-wise... I'll probably try gathering some data on those 1xMP and 1xEP spins Since they're more regular now, we should have more data to work with, assuming people want to. Following @jelom's advice on another thread, I'll compile a week's "work" and post it next week. Probably on his thread, since it's probably not worth opening yet another thread just for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHarry Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 4:53 AM, DvDivXXX said: I was very chill already, but thanks. I'm not sure why (well, I have a guess), but a few people on this forum seem to read my posts while attributing it an angry or sarcastic tone, even when it's very calm and factual, like the one you're quoting here. Maybe it's because the facts I'm calmly presenting them tend to expose their unfounded venting or paranoid ideas for what they are, which makes them less satisfying, so they turn their frustration to me instead? Or they just don't like my written voice, I guess. Too bad... Yop. You were in a very typical post bad beat nonsense spouting episode in the post of yours I quoted (among others) to put mine in context. Nothing very interesting at all, and that's not what I was looking to dissect. You do you, I really don't care. Tons and tons of players do exactly the same all the time, in any game that involves odds and chance, and I'm very VERY used to their empty rhetoric. You either understand how odds work in the big picture, and you can have a rational approach to the RNG side of things on a daily basis, or you don't, and then it's quite likely you'll end up throwing a paranoid tantrum whenever you get bad RNG, especially if you were already in a bad mood for whatever unrelated reason (but you're just as likely to fail to really notice when you're in a lucky streak). That's the generic "you" as in "someone", by the way. I'm not focused on you in particular, DHarry. And again, I don't need to chill, but you might, if all you've taken away from my post above is "he's saying bad stuff about me, gotta write a rebuttal". But it's likely you won't. I'm used to discussing about odds with players who routinely complain about their bad RNG, and I know that 99% of the time it's impossible to convince them, even when you literally show them their own stats over months and demonstrate to them that they're not actually unlucky (which used to be my job, incidentally; in another field, but the principles are exactly the same). Anyways. Thanks for your thinly veiled jealousy disguised as congratulations about the small sample good streak I referred to, but you unfortunately missed the whole point I was making by mentioning it. I'm not any luckier than you in general. I have bad runs, good runs, and everything in between, just like every player ever. It's called variance. That was my point. Good luck to you. Cheers. You seem to fail to understand the meaning of the word 'imagine'. And if you are not focused on me in particular (though secretly you are?), maybe you should not name me repeatedly in your post DvDivXXX. The problem is I never was making false claims. A thing some people do here and you love to call them out on. I've seen your book sized posts. All good. Though I think you've grown so used to it you start seeing it everywhere even when it's not actually there. And if you try to put all that on me by naming me repeatedly, expect me to react (not rebut, react). I don't care about your 'written voice' whatever that is. I care about the content, the actual thing you are saying that simply doesn't apply to me, but you put on me anyway. You are projecting stuff from others on me clearly. Because I understand RNG. It's random and the smaller the pool of results, the weirder the results can get. Yet I also understand that the makers of the game have the ability to change drop chances. These two are not mutually exclusive. And because I understand my experience alone is far too small to draw real conclusion, I go to the forum and say, I can imagine something changed. With the goal of eliciting more experiences. I did not go to the forum to say "They must have lowered the droprate! Look at my results!" And that's because it was already (proven with many test results here on the forum) that single Pachinko is much less effective to get girls than 10x Pachinko. IF by act of re-balancing Kinkoid has adjusted the droprate after they started giving away free orbs, maybe the 540 kobans for a spin is now even more absurd. But again, no proof, but I can imagine it being the case. That's all. This game has developed a lot over the years and it would't be the first time one change effects another part of the game to become 'weird'. Eliciting a balancing change from the team in response. Totally understandable. Feel free to actually test it out properly. I don't have the time, but I'd be very interested in the results. Again, not to prove me right or wrong, as I didn't make a claim. Just to find out what I imagine could be the case is actually the case or not. I'm curious. Now feel free to turn all this into "[excuses]" in your head again. That's ok, that's easier than reading it to understand. But I suggest you read it again, but now with a little less negative assumptions. If you do we may be able to shake hand again after all. We're not as far apart as you may think. @Noacc Hope it's bloody friendly enough. I'm done now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHarry Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 5:09 PM, Karyia said: Curious choice of words, though.. bloody and friendly 😂😜 Topic-wise... I'll probably try gathering some data on those 1xMP and 1xEP spins Since they're more regular now, we should have more data to work with, assuming people want to. Following @jelom's advice on another thread, I'll compile a week's "work" and post it next week. Probably on his thread, since it's probably not worth opening yet another thread just for that. Haha, reminds me of that Monty Python scene, where in a court they try to frame some guy and keep interrogating him about some milk. Then he yells frustrated: "It's juts bloody milk!" And then the court goes "AHA! Bloody milk!" And then he admits everything. Anyway, that was exactly what I was hoping for. I could have phrased it better maybe, like: I can imagine, let's find out together. But the last part was just obvious to me. Let's bury it. If you want to gather results: I had 1 girl drop in the mean time. Did 31 spins. I really don't remember the specifics of gifts or gear. I'll keep track of mine. If Noacc secretly knows the answer, please do tell and save us the trouble. 😀 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDuss Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) A club colleague has completet yesterday a champion stage 10 times and dind't get the girl. Bevor the orbs came out he needed to complete between 6-7 Stages to get the champion girl. But now he get quasi nothing for complete a stage. MfG MDuss Edited February 25, 2020 by MDuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karyia Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, DHarry said: If you want to gather results: I had 1 girl drop in the mean time. Did 31 spins. I really don't remember the specifics of gifts or gear. I'll keep track of mine. Sure, I'll add that up, thanks Same here 👍 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 25, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 25, 2020 6 hours ago, DHarry said: You seem to fail to understand the meaning of the word 'imagine'. And if you are not focused on me in particular (though secretly you are?), maybe you should not name me repeatedly in your post DvDivXXX. The problem is I never was making false claims. A thing some people do here and you love to call them out on. I've seen your book sized posts. All good. Though I think you've grown so used to it you start seeing it everywhere even when it's not actually there. And if you try to put all that on me by naming me repeatedly, expect me to react (not rebut, react). I don't care about your 'written voice' whatever that is. I care about the content, the actual thing you are saying that simply doesn't apply to me, but you put on me anyway. I don't know about bloody friendly, but my passive aggressive radar is still tingling. I know what "imagine" means... and you know that. I'm not in the business of making enemies, putting words in other people's mouths, or using ad hominem arguments. Sorry if you felt that I was targeting you, as that was not the case. I mentioned you twice in the post that you reacted to, indeed (and quoted you once), but that was a long post and most of it was general information coupled with tips on how to approach said information rationally. It was aimed at people who either lacked some of this info and/or struggle to interpret it without delving into superstitious and/or irrational beliefs about odds (or drop rates, indeed). That covers a ton of players, whether you're one of them or not. I've quoted one line from you that seemed typical of the type of approach I do tend to debunk, and it served as one of my examples, but it wasn't personal as you seem to have taken it. It's not that relevant to the points I've made in that post whether or not you in particular claimed this or believe that. I wish you'd let it go, and I hope that I'm wrong in sensing (or let's say imagining) that you'll only do that if you feel you had the last laugh, or won the argument. I'll quote this again, because I think there's a world of difference between what you later claimed you meant by it, and what it actually says. I only addressed the latter. On 2/20/2020 at 6:38 AM, DHarry said: I imagine the droprate of single spins went down considerably now that they give it away for free. Semantics aside, just considering that the devs would be capable of lowering the drop rate for anything sounds, at the very least, quite unreasonable, and it suggests an irrational response to a bad run to me. You can insist on the difference between "I imagine" and "I claim", but it's meaningless. Just thinking this way tends to show an emotional approach to the odds, at the very least. In all honestly, that line just sounds outright paranoid in and of itself, especially considering there's evidence to the contrary (starting with the fact that in over three years of the game's existence, the devs have never altered drop rates). I maintain that this line was relevant to my post, whether it reflects the way you think in general or, as I assumed (because again I'm very familiar with this type of reaction) it was a spur of the moment thing to vent frustration. You've said it, I quoted it. It doesn't change the fact that the bulk of my post wasn't about your claims (or lack thereof), let alone about you. The parts of the post you feel I was "projecting" on you, were not. It's a much larger topic than one player's impressions or statements. And I was frankly disappointed (and a bit annoyed, indeed) that you took it so personally just because one line of yours and your name came up in it. I hope this clears things up. I have nothing against you in particular, and I wish we can "shake hands" virtually anyway, and please rest assured that I am absolutely NOT into back and forth "you said this" "but I meant that" nitpicking with (or against) another player. If I assumed anything incorrectly about your emotional state and/or beliefs, or if hurt your feelings or anything else in that vein, sorry for that. Could you please take my post less personally, and maybe read it again from a "'big picture" perspective? Mentally redact your name out of it, and I hope you'll find it interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHarry Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Well, first the bloody, and then friendly. One quote plus 2 mentions of my name does kinda make a post feel personal. And what triggered me is that most of it I would readily agree with and now it seemed I was set up as the person who doesn't. We will however disagree on the unreasonable irrational part towards kinkoid being able to change thing in the game such as drop rates. The just do, even if it's tweaking only. That's just inherent about running a game that constantly adds new things. Imho that's called logical. Agree to disagree on that for my part. I'll phrase my theories and such a little clearer from now on to leave no doubt about my intentions. No hard feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator DvDivXXX Posted February 26, 2020 Moderator Share Posted February 26, 2020 3 hours ago, DHarry said: One quote plus 2 mentions of my name does kinda make a post feel personal. And what triggered me is that most of it I would readily agree with and now it seemed I was set up as the person who doesn't. I can see that, in retrospect. No one else took issue to that post, but I also mentioned you more than anyone else in it. That wasn't ideal, especially if you were on tilt at the time as I assumed. I'll try to avoid that in the future. 4 hours ago, DHarry said: We will however disagree on the unreasonable irrational part towards kinkoid being able to change thing in the game such as drop rates. The just do, even if it's tweaking only. That's just inherent about running a game that constantly adds new things. Imho that's called logical. Agree to disagree on that for my part. Tweaking things here and there without announcing it, for sure, sometimes even changing very important things out of the blue, like how the stage 5 champion battles work for instance. But something as core as drop rates (legal implications for a number of countries notwithstanding), I highly doubt they would ever change, at the very least stealthily. And if they ever did, we would (eventually) notice. That has yet to ever happen. When they changed drop ranges, they announced it (even if they did so in an awkwardly phrased and unnecessarily cryptic way). Drop rates are even more important. So yeah, agree to disagree on that. 4 hours ago, DHarry said: I'll phrase my theories and such a little clearer from now on to leave no doubt about my intentions. No hard feelings. Same here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorba the Geek Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 (edited) Since my postings re. my successes with the new orb system, this happened: After Kimechi, Skytte and Hope were added to my harem courtesy of Epic Pachinko and free orbs in my Lili account. I'm posting this not to skite, but to share my wonder at how this run of luck in one account could continue as it has. The other source of wonder is that, apart from Herbie Hynde, I've had hardly any luck with these orbs and, apart from some useful legendary equipment, I haven't had a single girl from the other four accounts. Judging by some other posts, this seems the more consistent pattern for other members. As you can tell, I have a heap of upgrading to do in Lili from the legendary and epic girls I acquired so quickly. Just to avoid any confusion, I did not win Keira from orb freebies, but from a villain in Epic Days. [Update] This is insane!! I just acquired this chick (cum horse)... again in Lili. It can't continue and it won't. Lili was my absolute worst account, but the orb system and Epic pachinko seemed to be the making of it. My first orb success in an account other than Lili or Herbie Hynde. I had one free spin left, but it subsequently yielded a 'lucky' equipment item, which I shall gratefully sell. I would say that this would probably be consistent with the rate of success others have had. Edited February 27, 2020 by Zorba the Geek add image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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