_shal_ Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 1 minute ago, fap.titans.gra said: any confirmation in the equations? Likelihood of not getting any drop: (1-drop rate)^(attempts) Likelihood of getting at least one drop: 1 - (1-drop rate)^(attempts) 1 - 0.996^240 = 0.618 (I see I mistyped the last digit above, sorry about that. Fixed now.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Udude18 Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 (edited) Still no luck getting any girls this time which is pretty unlucky. I've currently spent around 4032 kobans for battle refills, 5400 on one epic pachinko spin (which did give a girl but since it's guaranteed there was no luck involved there). I've been attacking the last boss constantly and while he's been providing a ton of money (every single time) I hope I can get at least one girl from bosses during this event. The odds seem incredibly low this time which makes sense due to some epic pachinko girls being available but I think that because of the way the game works even with more girls as a possible chance to get does not mean more of a chance to get them. I say that because the last boss should be able to drop 12 different girls yet he's dropped 0. I even tried spending some battle points on dark lord but he didn't drop anything either so I might just have extremely bad luck this time. Again here's hoping to get at least one girl because so far it's been kinda bleak, I don't regret spending 5200 on one spin though since technically at least that managed to get 1 girl albeit a guaranteed one but it feels like the last boss just won't drop any girls despite multiple people saying they eventually got one from him. If I do get one I'll edit this post or something but yeah pretty bad luck so far. Edited July 28, 2018 by Udude18 Small typo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fap.titans.gra Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 (edited) 37 minutes ago, _shal_ said: Likelihood of not getting any drop: (1-drop rate)^(attempts) Likelihood of getting at least one drop: 1 - (1-drop rate)^(attempts) 1 - 0.996^240 = 0.618 (I see I mistyped the last digit above, sorry about that. Fixed now.) I do not know what kind of counting is, but nothing is correct. drop rate = It's a chance to get 1 girl, so: (chance to get 1 girl)*(attempts)"theory of probability" 0,4%*240=96% = for 1 girl - it is simple 0,2%*240=48% = for 2 girls Edited July 28, 2018 by fap.titans.gra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dimka Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 The cry of the soul. I have 103 girls. 261 level of. And the longer I play, the more I am convinced that my level and the number of girls harm me. The last 2-3 girls I received for events for 7-9 days prizes. Knock and win the girl in battle, I can not for 2-3 months. What's the reason-other than the conspiracy theory or the implementation curve due to the total number of my girls and my big level-I don't know. I don't think I'm the only one with this problem. Dear developers-look at the statistics of getting girls at the senior levels and those who have a lot of them - and draw conclusions. Something's not working for you. PS: example. Have 3 days to beat Darklord where I have 11 girls - not knocked out a single one. Although, in theory my level in relation to it + I hit 50 fights a day minimum - I already had something to beat. But no. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZORO256 Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Well I have been trying continuously since this event started.. AND I NEED A FEW TIPS... 1. I have around 14k kobans. So should I spend em on two epic pachinko spins and rest on energy. Like 10.8k on spins and rest 4k on energy or what..? 2. DROP RATES.. WHO SHOULD I BATTLE TO INCREASE MY CHANCES TO GET A GIRL. Dark Lord, Gruntt, Ninja Spy, Edwarda or Donatien. I've been trying randomly on them but no luck. 3. Or should I stick to any one of em, if I should then which one. Damn, I sound so pathetic... I know.. but please help me here... you understand how one feels to get the opportunity to get all girls... So PLEASE HELP OUT... THANKS IN ADVANCED TO ALL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Udude18 Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 (edited) If you use them on pachinko spins then that's absolutely 2 girls guaranteed but a lot of people would probably say to use it on battle points since you could battle a ton with that amount of kobans. The drop rates are supposedly consistent with any boss (or they should be). So I'd say maybe with that amount it might be best to keep refilling since you would have 1327 chances to battle them. If your luck is bad like mine has been though then it might make sense to get 2 guaranteed girls. The thing is you can't know if you would have gotten a girl or not but I feel like with 1327 chances to battle them is a lot of chances so you should be able to get at least 1 girl maybe 2 or even more (it's all luck based for battles). It is ultimately up to you though. If you use the 2 on spins then it seems unlikely with the remainder left if you're like me to get another girl from battle refills, who knows though maybe I just have bad luck this time. So overall hard to say but those are things you'd want to consider. Edited July 28, 2018 by Udude18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habi Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, _shal_ said: Likelihood of not getting any drop: (1-drop rate)^(attempts) Likelihood of getting at least one drop: 1 - (1-drop rate)^(attempts) 1 - 0.996^240 = 0.618 (I see I mistyped the last digit above, sorry about that. Fixed now.) 51 minutes ago, fap.titans.gra said: I do not know what kind of counting is, but nothing is correct. drop rate = It's a chance to get 1 girl, so: (chance to get 1 girl)*(attempts)"theory of probability" 0,4%*240=96% = for 1 girl - it is simple 0,2%*240=48% = for 2 girls @_shal_ is absolutely correct with his calculation. that is how basic statistics work. except the made up drop rate ofc but it's just an example. the forumlae he uses are the correct ones. you can believe it or not but your believing won't change how it works. Edited July 28, 2018 by Habi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhd001144 Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, ZORO256 said: Well I have been trying continuously since this event started.. AND I NEED A FEW TIPS... 1. I have around 14k kobans. So should I spend em on two epic pachinko spins and rest on energy. Like 10.8k on spins and rest 4k on energy or what..? 2. DROP RATES.. WHO SHOULD I BATTLE TO INCREASE MY CHANCES TO GET A GIRL. Dark Lord, Gruntt, Ninja Spy, Edwarda or Donatien. I've been trying randomly on them but no luck. 3. Or should I stick to any one of em, if I should then which one. Damn, I sound so pathetic... I know.. but please help me here... you understand how one feels to get the opportunity to get all girls... So PLEASE HELP OUT... THANKS IN ADVANCED TO ALL... If u use them on Pachinko 10x of course at least 2 girls u will get ... About my result till now At the begin. i was fighting dark lork and then Finalmecia using 1x performance Then i decided to use 10x and refill Its not about drop rate its just good luck >> when u use 10x its like u have 10 coins and wats the probability to get tail or head I had like 19.5k or more kobans and now 14.373k and i get 7 girls PS: before like 1 hour i spent 216kobans twice to refil and 10x performance 4 times <<< and i get 2 girls and if u r lucky u can 2 girls at the same time BUT i played before like 10 rounds or more and got nothing ; so its good or bad luck Thats my advice 2 u hope this will help u 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eman Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 I finally got my first girl, Noella. I can't say she's one the girls I wanted, but she's more than welcome. I hope I can get another girl (or more) before the event ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Got my second one on this account And I haven't even touched my kobans yet. I am feeling very lucky right now, and to be honest, my anniversary event is a succes already. Also, this was girl #100 on this account 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_HH Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 3 hours ago, Zorba the Geek said: Everyone to his/her own. I guess I don't find Juin Lelierre appealing because I'm not influenced by the manga/anime on which these haremettes are based. She seems more cartoonish than usual. That's not to say I disregard manga/anime, but I'm ignorant of the genre (but learning, having studied it in art school). I must say, though, it is inspiring me to return to my own artwork. I just go on what appeals to me and I do not decry in any way or devalue the opinions of others. Juin Lelierre might grow in me. Some of the other girls have, over time. Princess Agate is one who has. So has Princess Noemy, ever since her metal version which I find dangerously hot (including her bandmates!). I'd actually love to see the HH artists create some stand-alone girls/personalities that are completely original, or, if they copied a genre/persona of an earlier creation, this ought to be entirely coincidental. Seldom does creativity not stand on the shoulders of what went before, anyway. Apparently Mala is an original and she was inspired, it is said, by Jessie Chan. I wonder if Mala's very shapely sister, Venam, is in the same category of being original. Both girls look great, to me. Just a footnote, I've taken Juin Lelierre to her first star and I like it better than her entry level image. Her first affection scene is very funny. Yes, she may grow on me. Venam is based on Mina from the manga Boku no Hero Academia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fap.titans.gra Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 (edited) 57 minutes ago, Habi said: 2 hours ago, _shal_ said: Likelihood of not getting any drop: (1-drop rate)^(attempts) Likelihood of getting at least one drop: 1 - (1-drop rate)^(attempts) 1 - 0.996^240 = 0.618 (I see I mistyped the last digit above, sorry about that. Fixed now.) 1 hour ago, fap.titans.gra said: I do not know what kind of counting is, but nothing is correct. drop rate = It's a chance to get 1 girl, so: (chance to get 1 girl)*(attempts)"theory of probability" 0,4%*240=96% = for 1 girl - it is simple 0,2%*240=48% = for 2 girls @_shal_ is absolutely correct with his calculation. that is how basic statistics work. except the made up drop rate ofc but it's just an example. the forumlae he uses are the correct ones. you can believe it or not but your believing won't change how it works. with this pattern: drop rate=0,4% attempts=240 Likelihood of not getting any drop: (1-drop rate)^(attempts) = (1-0,4%)*240= 144% Likelihood of getting at least one drop: 1 - (1-drop rate)^(attempts) = 1- (1-0,4%)*240= -143% ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? realy? how can you have a chance -143%, and the probability that you will not drop 144% after 240 attempts, although in the first attempt you have 0.4% chance that you will drop? and the more attemptsthe drop should be bigger, or stay on the same level???????I do not understand something? Edited July 28, 2018 by fap.titans.gra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habi Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 (edited) 14 minutes ago, fap.titans.gra said: with this pattern: drop rate=0,4% attempts=240 Likelihood of not getting any drop: (1-drop rate)^(attempts) = (1-0,4%)*240= 144% Likelihood of getting at least one drop: 1 - (1-drop rate)^(attempts) = 1- (1-0,4%)*240= -143% ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? realy? how can you have a chance -143%, and the probability that you will not drop 144% after 240 attempts, although in the first attempt you have 0.4% chance that you will drop? and the more attemptsthe drop should be bigger, or stay on the same level???????I do not understand something? (1-0.004)^240 = 0.3821... 1) you need to put the droprate as probablity (value between 0 and 1) and not as percent. statistical formulae ALWAYS use the probability value and not the percentage. divide percentage with 100 to get the probability. 2) it is to the power of 240 and not times 240. 3) the resulting value is also a probability value between 0 and 1. to get the percent you need to multiply with 100. Edited July 28, 2018 by Habi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arse Man Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 On 26/7/2561 at 10:53 PM, ChyldeRoland said: I got gork, union Elizabeth and deltra so far. No kobans spent How??? I only got Bonny from fighting edwarda, and I used 2 refills (I pretty much used up all my combat points since the event commenced). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fap.titans.gra Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 48 minutes ago, Habi said: (1-0.004)^240 = 0.3821... 1) you need to put the droprate as probablity (value between 0 and 1) and not as percent. statistical formulae ALWAYS use the probability value and not the percentage. divide percentage with 100 to get the probability. 2) it is to the power of 240 and not times 240. 3) the resulting value is also a probability value between 0 and 1. to get the percent you need to multiply with 100. now it makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockstar99 Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 15k kobans and still missing half the girls ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HentaiBro Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 (edited) Got Noella on fight 19. Then I spent 3416 kobans for more girls but couldn't get any of them. Edited July 28, 2018 by HentaiBro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pozi Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 After 3 days without getting any girls through battles, this morning I made my third refill and got Spring Rumiko, and now, just about 25 fights later (17 from the refill and 8 from regular time fill), got a second girl -Lady Meta. That's how probabilities work, guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trunks2585 Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Hmm, I was thinking about buying that starter offer on the last day of the event, but that and what i save up would only give me a little over 2K kobans for refills, not so sure I won't just be wasting my time from the direction these comments are going now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucky03 Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 F.......ck, 3 days I tried to get a drop and everyday I filed at least once, what to i get, a boss specific girl out of fucking 23! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordRagy84 Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 the way my luck serves me i'll go empty from this event should have used the cobans on pachinko at least 1 girl is something and once i got 2 on x10 pachinko but from bosses so far in this event 0 drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hollo Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 I still don't see why you guys spend so many kobans on refills on the first day or so of the event, rather than waiting until near the end. Are you all going on vacation or something? What if you play the next few days and got a lucky streak? (I'm seriously looking at doing refills near the end - seems like a good way to save on kobans on the long run when recruiting these epic girls.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arse Man Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 I finally got another girl from the event, but it had to be neanderthal gork. I mean atleast she should give me some cash if not the looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Invet Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 Still at 0, and i'm trying on two acounts. Last year the event was just "have some kobans and use them". This year is better. It would be even better if I could get a couple of the 9 girls I'm missing............ After 4 days I'm fatalist on the verge of crying every time I'm figthing a boss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chthugha Posted July 28, 2018 Share Posted July 28, 2018 32 minutes ago, ryans122 said: I finally got another girl from the event, but it had to be neanderthal gork. I mean atleast she should give me some cash if not the looks. too bad her 3-star pay-out is 1059 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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