Identifying the Dicktator league brackets

[_shal_]

Last week's summary:

On 12/29/2018 at 9:38 PM, _shal_ said:

Thanks for the many S2 reports! The number of players in there should be above 2800 after last week's 2460. Sadly, both 2805 and 2820 are possible with the reported 100/101 brackets - I'm inclined to take the higher number, because the lower one would imply that S1 only grew by 4 brackets the week before (after growing by 6 for three straight weeks, see last week's notes).

So, the presumptive numbers for this week:

S1: approx. 6900 (may be too high - we'll see next week)
S2: 2820
S3: 945
D1: 120

Leading to these for next week in the tiers that matter to us:

S2: 3150
S3: 1110
D1: 240

S3 and D1 should be accurate, S2 depends on whether or not the recent S1 guesses were still on the mark.

Go figure, S2 is starting to get very difficult to count, let alone project. We didn't get anywhere near 3150 players this week - with reported sizes of 100 and 101 players again, it has to be just 3105 or 3120 instead. Based on that I also suspect that last week's was only 2805 after all, not 2820. That would match last week's reported brackets better, in any case, which included 6x 100 and only 2x 101. And by the same token the number may be only 3105 this time - this week's reports account for 5x 100 and 2x 101. (Consequently S1 was likely only around 6700 players last time, not 6900 as stated above.)

I'm a bit confused that we've had reports of 2 different S3's with only 100 players - at a total of 1110 players there should have been only one of those. @Mez and @Magic Sam, can you re-confirm that there are only 100 players for you, please? If true, that means that S3 has somehow lost a player compared to the expected numbers.

Revised presumptive numbers for the current season.

S1: approx. 7100
S2: 3105
S3: 1110 (or 1109, who knows...)
D1: 240

Projected for next week:

S2: 3405
S3: 1275
D1: 375

[Habi]

So for the week after next week that would mean:

S2: ???
S3: ~1470
D1: 510 (5x102) or if something goes wrong 495 (1x123 + 3x124)

doing further basic approximations we should create first d2 after 6 weeks of d1. (after 510 roughly following 660 and 810 is enough room for error to get one d2 no matter what)

Edited January 6, 2019 by Habi

[Mez]

1 hour ago, _shal_ said:

I'm a bit confused that we've had reports of 2 different S3's with only 100 players - at a total of 1110 players there should have been only one of those. @Mez and @Magic Sam, can you re-confirm that there are only 100 players for you, please? If true, that means that S3 has somehow lost a player compared to the expected numbers. 
 

 

Sure, there is indeed only 100 players in my S3 bracket:

 

[Tommy55]

Here's my SIII league, 101 players

[Magic Sam]

@_shal_ This is some strange buggery at work...more people must not have bothered competing than expected.

[jelom]

@Magic Sam remember that the top leagues are always a hard place if your ego is not high, and other reason is to get top rewards in lower tier leagues next week. But my impression is that in the end is a great loss of EXP for a not always sure and small net win of kobans.

[TheSonicSly]

Here's My D1 bracket. It has 128 players in it. 😉

[Sovereign RHB]

For the last time.

107 players in my S3 league.

bye bye

[jelom]

this is my D1 league with 128 members.

[jaysen]

S3 with 107 people

[yourfriend]

S2, 101 people, top zero, LV 321

[DHarry]

107 players in my S3 too. Interesting. 

 

Highest lvl is Kaze, lvl 320. 

[Blain]

My S3 with 107 players

 

[Gambit126]

My S2 has 102 players.  Mogewara lvl 320

[jaysen]

You know looking at my league level wise i fall in the middle if not a lttle less. Yet looking at ego and my type vs theirs i can beat most of the top players at the momoent. In fact i just beat the highest level of 327 while im only 305

[EpicBacon]

My s3 has 107 players in it, notable players include dirty harry.
here is the top 9 level players

[Z-Wave]

My D1 with 128 people:

 

[Khorrum]

Looks like I am in the same bracket as Yourfriend. SII with 101 players.

[TentacleLove]

How do you get demoted I did not get demoted and am in sexpert 2 and can beat almost no one. and I got to sexpert 2 last week ended at 85.

[Chthugha]

Sexpert III with 106 players.

[[CNO] BananaJoy]

@_shal_ do u have datas for this week leagues. cause of the bans yesterday the number of players should have changed

[Daniele]

I'm in the third D1 group, 129 players

[bane]

got 107 in my S3, highest lv and lowest player to show 107

 

[_shal_]

And my S2, another one with 102 players:

 

[_shal_]

Well, that escalated quickly. At least it's not only S3 now that has an unexpected player total...

Jumping off from last week's summary:

On 1/6/2019 at 9:36 AM, _shal_ said:

Revised presumptive numbers for the current season.

S1: approx. 7100
S2: 3105
S3: 1110 (or 1109, who knows...)
D1: 240

Projected for next week:

S2: 3405
S3: 1275
D1: 375

We'll just have to take last week's numbers as given now, since it's now impossible to reverse engineer anything from the new totals - the widely discussed suspension business and the apparently connected disabling of (regular) demotions have thrown things out of whack pretty much everywhere.

Starting at the top, some semi-educated guesswork:

Rather than the expected 375 players in three groups of 125, D1 now features 385 (2x128 + 129). Based on reports there were 20 suspended players in last week's two D1 groups (11 in one, 9 in the other), so it appears that these are now gone, but nobody else is, leading to 10 fewer demotions than expected. Add in 165 promotions from S3 as expected, and we've got those 385.

For S3 I'm guessing roughly 15 suspended players and possible "normal" zero-pointers (who probably did get demoted). That gives us: 1110 minus 165 (promotions to D1) minus 15 (suspensions and demotions to S2) plus 465 (promotions from S2) => 1395. That roughly matches the reported brackets here - mostly 107's and one 106, which should mean the player total is a little bit below 1391. For my own sanity I'll assume it's 1385, just to have a prettier number.

Similarly for S2 I'll go with approximately 30 zeros - I had one (normal, not suspended) in my bracket, and I suspect that at least one zero-pointer per 100 players is pretty common at this level of play. That means: 3105 minus 465 (promotions to S3) minus 30 (suspensions and demotions to S1) plus 1065 (promotions from S1 based on the wild guess of 71 brackets) => 3675. That's a bit too high, given the reported bracket sizes of 101 and 102. I'll go with 3660 for now, but we're rapidly approaching the point where S2 can no longer by quantified exactly anyway, so the more important thing is that there are probably 36 brackets there.

Lastly, S1 is a total crapshoot by now. I don't have any accounts parked at that level, so I can barely guess how many zero-pointers there might have been. I do know that W3 already has sizable numbers of absences these days (around 10 zeros per bracket), so I wouldn't be surprised if S1 has around 3 to 5. My original expectation for S1 was ~7500 players; if we assume that around 11 players per bracket have not got demoted this time, that's about 800 extra players for 8300 total. This one could be way off the truth...

So, the corrected numbers for this week, much less reliable than in the past:

S1: approx. 7500 8300
S2: 3405 3660
S3: 1275 1385
D1: 375 385

Leading to these projections for next week:

S2: 4020
S3: 1580
D1: 535

This assumes that demotions will actually work correctly again next Thursday...... There's also the question where the suspended players will re-appear in the leagues - one division lower, two divisions lower or all the way down at W1 are all conceivable possibilities. (Another option is "not at all", because I won't bet on their accounts actually getting reactivated properly in time for the league start.)

Edited January 11, 2019 by _shal_